Nov 192016
 

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1)

The common narrative is that the sky is falling for the Packers right now, following 3 straight losses and a 47-25 thrashing in Tennessee last week. However, their loss in Atlanta came by 1 point, on the road, against one of the better teams in the league. Their home loss to the Colts was largely as a result of long returns by the Colts on special teams. Last week’s loss was obviously bad, but the Titans are much better than people realize. The Titans were my Pick of the Week as 3 point home underdogs against the Packers last week. I obviously didn’t see them blowing them out, but I think that game is more evidence that the Titans are for real than evidence that the Packers are done.

The Packers are far from the team they once were, but 3 of their 5 losses were very winnable, while all 4 of their wins came with relative ease. They enter this game 12th in first down rate differential, but this line suggests they are even with the Redskins, as Washington is 3 point home favorites. That’s far from the case, considering the Redskins enter this game 24th in first down rate differential and are without stud left tackle Trent Williams with suspension. The Redskins’ only win by more than a touchdown came at home against the Browns, a game in which they didn’t even play that well, allowing 26 first downs. The Redskins are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and go to Dallas on a short week for their Thanksgiving game. Favorites are just 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. They might not be 100% focused for this game, while the Packers should be as they kind of need a win to save their season. Aaron Rodgers is typically very good off of a loss, going 27-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. I like the Packers a lot as field goal underdogs and would take them at 2.5 as well.

Green Bay Packers 31 Washington Redskins 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High

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