Oct 152016

Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The early line had the Texans as 3.5 point home favorites here over the Colts, but the line has been at 3 this week. That’s only a half point, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by less than a field goal, it’s a significant half point. Right now, this line suggests these two teams are not even, which has not been true thus far this season. The Texans enter this game 22nd in first down percentage, while the Colts enter in 29th, thanks to a defense that ranks dead last in first down percentage allowed.

Something will have to give, as the Texans come in dead last in first down percentage on offense. The Texans have scored just 6 offensive touchdowns in 5 games this season, despite off-season additions of wide receiver Will Fuller and running back Lamar Miller. That’s because their offensive line has been a mess, thanks to injuries and off-season departures, while free agent acquisition quarterback Brock Osweiler has been even worse than last year’s quarterback Brian Hoyer thus far this season, at a price of 18 million annually. The defense has been strong, but is not the same without the injured JJ Watt, so I’m not confident in Houston, but, all things considered, Houston is the better team. Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Colts have one of the worst rosters around him in the league.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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