Nov 062013
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

The Jaguars are not very good. That’s obvious. However, everyone covers at some point. There’s a time, place, and a line where you can take any team. I think this is it for the Jaguars, as 11.5 point underdogs. There’s actually some value in betting on winless teams after a certain point. Winless teams are 23-5 ATS as road dogs since 1989 in week 9 or later. Teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and possibly underrated at that situation. The Buccaneers were winless last week when they marched into Seattle and took them to overtime as 15 point underdogs before eventually losing by a field goal. The Titans aren’t as good as the Seahawks and they’re favored by almost as much here. That should tell you something.

The Titans could especially be overlooking them because they host the Colts in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. Along with that, divisional home favorites are 13-28 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of 10 or more are 10-26 ATS since 1989 before being divisional underdogs, including 7-14 ATS before being divisional home dogs. They’ll have a lot of trouble concentrating on the winless Jaguars with that game up next and, as they are an NFL team, the Jaguars are capable of taking advantage of that, no matter how bad they may seem.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +11.5

Confidence: Medium

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