Dec 052015

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (2-9)

About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the fact that this line is 2.5 in favor of the Titans at home, instead of 3, is very important, considering I think the Titans are the better of these two teams. That’s not what this line suggests, so the Titans are a really intriguing side to me. Despite their 2-9 record, tied for worst in the NFL, the Titans rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re not quite as bad as their record. They also have moved the chains at a 72.13% rate in Marcus Mariota’s 9 starts, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed.

The Jaguars rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but have gotten better as the season has gone on, as they had a rate of moving the chains differential of -10.95% in their first 3 games, as opposed to -4.61% in their last 8 games. What happened? Well, they got healthier, as left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and tight end Julius Thomas have all returned from early season injuries. However, they’re going to be without outside linebacker Dan Skuta and wide receiver Allen Hurns in this one, so they’re pretty banged up. Particularly the Hurns injury is going to hurt, because he’s playing so well this season and this is his first game missed. As long as this line stays under a field goal, I’d put money on the Titans.

Tennessee Titans 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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