Oct 272016
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 4th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -15 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have a +19 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 12 offensive touchdowns all season on 74 drives (two of which came after recovered onside kicks) and have 19 more first downs than their opponents. In offensive touchdowns, they have a +6 advantage (18 to 12).

That doesn’t mean the Titans are the 4th best team in the NFL or anything, but they’re better than their record suggests. Much healthier and more talented than they were in 2015, the Titans run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and play strong defense. They’ve just had a lot of bad luck thus far. The Jaguars, meanwhile, rank 19th in first down percentage differential, very much in line with their 2-4 record. Despite the mere half game separating these two teams, the Titans have a significant advantage and should be favored by more than a field goal at home. This line suggests these two teams are more or less even on a neutral field. As long as this line is 3, Tennessee is worth a bet, though I’d lay off at 3.5 because of how common field goal games are.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Medium

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