Dec 302012
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (5-10)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

However, if I had to take a side, it’d be Jacksonville. The Titans have no business laying more than a field goal against anyone. They are worse than even their 5-10 record would suggest they are the 3rd worst team in the NFL in points differential, thanks to a league leading 6 losses by 21 or more. They rank 31st in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA as a result, even worse than the Jaguars.

They Jaguars may only have 2 wins, but they rank 30th, 30th, and 29th in those 3 things respectively. They already beat the Titans once this season and they have a good chance to do so again. If you take the difference between the Jaguars’ net points per drive and the Titans’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tennessee should be just 2 point favorites here , rather than 4. Even if they don’t win, I like getting the points with the Jaguars.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +4 (-110) 2 units

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