Dec 242016

Tennessee Titans (8-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) Both of these teams used to top my underrated list, but have fallen down the list in recent weeks. In Tennessee’s case, it’s just a matter of public opinion catching up to how good they actually are, following upset victories over Green Bay, Denver, and Kansas City in […]

Dec 172016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Houston Texans (7-6) The Jaguars are on an 8-game losing streak and are coming off of one of their least impressive performances of the season, losing at home by 9 despite winning the turnover battle, against a Minnesota team that was missing their best defensive player, safety Harrison Smith. However, typically, […]

Dec 102016

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) The Vikings have a strong defense, allowing the 6th lowest first down rate in the NFL, but they were dealt a huge blow when they lost Harrison Smith with an ankle injury that could sideline him for the rest of the year. As valuable to Minnesota’s defense as […]

Nov 192016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4) After a busy off-season in which the Jaguars had among the most cap space in the NFL and spent accordingly, the Jaguars entered the season with high expectations and have had an incredibly disappointing season, falling to 2-7 last week with loss to the Houston Texans. Their last […]

Nov 052016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) The Jaguars have had a disappointing 2016 season. A perennial cellar dweller in recent years, the Jaguars entered the off-season with a lot of young talent and cap space to spend to add to their young talent, which they did with free agent additions like Malik Jackson, […]

Oct 272016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4) The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 4th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -15 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have […]

Oct 222016

Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 4-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading, as their first 5 games were all decided by a touchdown or fewer (with 3 of them decided by 3 points […]

Oct 152016

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4) This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank […]

Oct 012016

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at London Both of these teams come to London much healthier than they’ve been all season. Defensive end Jared Odrick remains out for the Jaguars for the second straight game, but they get back cornerback Prince Amukamara, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Brandon Linder this week, after […]

Sep 242016

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) Through 2 games, the Ravens lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD). Of course, it’s only two games and their competition hasn’t been hard (Buffalo and Cleveland), but the Jaguars don’t seem much better. Through 2 games, they’re 30th in RMCD, after finishing last […]

Sep 172016

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (0-1) Before the season started, the Chargers were one of the teams I expected to have a significant jump in wins this season, after winning just 4 in 2015. That theory was based on the assumptions that the Chargers would have better luck both in winning close games […]

Dec 282015

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the Texans because it would come […]

Dec 192015

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense […]

Dec 122015

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) The Colts lost in Pittsburgh 45-10 last week, but still rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th. Given that, I think we’re getting at least some line value with the Colts as 1 point underdogs. That’s no surprise, considering teams are 51-26 […]

Nov 282015

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip Rivers has played very well […]

Nov 192015

Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team […]

Nov 132015

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6) The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in […]