Dec 232014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes [...]

Dec 122014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 [...]

Dec 062014
 

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where [...]

Nov 272014
 

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a [...]

Nov 202014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to [...]

Nov 082014
 

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing [...]

Nov 012014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) Overall on the season, the Bengals really haven’t played well, as they rank way down at 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 75.10% for their opponents, a differential of -3.74%. However, they’ve been much better at [...]

Oct 252014
 

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. [...]

Oct 102014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4) This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains [...]

Sep 192014
 

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often [...]

Sep 112014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1) The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the [...]

Sep 062014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all. The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse than their 4-12 record would [...]

Aug 172014
 

RB Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville) The Jaguars signed former Vikings backup running back Toby Gerhart to be their starting running back and the Jaguars are talking him up as a 300+ carry three-down back. The 2010 2nd round pick clearly has some talent, averaging 4.73 YPC on 276 carries (1305 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns) in 4 [...]