Top Free Agents OLB Daryl Smith ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, injuries limited Smith to just 117 snaps this season. Already one of the NFL’s most underrated players, he could be an excellent buy low candidate this season for a team in need of a new starter at outside linebacker, but he [...]
The Jaguars had been treading water for a few years and finally bottomed out in 2012, winning just 2 games. GM Gene Smith was fired for building this team and rightfully so. The Jaguars hadn’t had a winning season in any of their last 5 seasons, going 27-53. Smith whiffed on numerous high draft picks, [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (5-10) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, [...]
Last week: 31 (+0) Record: 2-13 Net points per drive: -0.86 (30th) DVOA: -29.1% (30th) Weighted DVOA: -26.2% (29th) Studs LOLB Russell Allen: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 6 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection LE [...]
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) Tom Brady and the Patriots lost last week, but there was still a lot to like from that game. They scored 34 points on the league’s best defense, despite a season high 4 turnovers and despite missing Rob Gronkowski. Their defense surrendered 41 points, but that could [...]
Last week: 31 (+1) Record: 2-12 Net points per drive: -0.87 (31st) DVOA: -33.6% (31st) Weighted DVOA: -31.5% (31st) Unlike the Chiefs, the Jaguars do have one winnable game left on the schedule as they head to Tennessee week 17, after hosting the Patriots next week, but I don’t think they’ll win another game either. [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8) I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are [...]
Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9) One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and need to win out to [...]
Last week: 30 (-2) Record: 2-11 Net points per drive: -0.79 (30th) DVOA: -34.8% (31st) Weighted DVOA: -32.7% (31st) After losing at home to the Jets, the Jaguars look poised to lose out. Their only remaining home game is against the Patriots and getting another win would mean winning in Tennessee or Miami. They are [...]
New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) I would say this would be the shorst game of the season, but the Jets and Cardinals from last week currently hold that title. Raiders/Chiefs next week might give them a run for their money, but this is going to be a terrible game. More importantly, how [...]
Last week: 31 (+1) Record: 2-10 Net points per drive: -0.80 (30th) DVOA: -34.4% (30th) Weighted DVOA: -33.2% (30th) Studs MLB Paul Posluszny: 3 solo tackles, 6 assists, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for -1 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception Duds QB Chad Henne: 18 of 41 for 208 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7) One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finished with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it [...]
Last week: 32 (+1) Record: 2-9 Net points per drive: -0.73 (29th) DVOA: -33.0% (30th) Weighted DVOA: -33.0% (30th) Tier 7: Terrible Studs QB Chad Henne: 17 of 26 for 261 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 3 drops, 106.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 33 drop backs (7 sacks, 4 of 8, 1 [...]
Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves [...]
Last week: 32 (+0) Record: 1-9 It’s still neck and neck for them and the Chiefs. I don’t know if it really matters. They both suck. I think it will take one team winning to show any separation between them and I don’t see that happening. Gabbert has been put on IR with elbow and [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1) This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that? Well, here’s a clue. The [...]
Last week: 32 (+0) Record: 1-8 Still the worst team in the NFL. I think the Chiefs are more likely than they are to win another game the rest of the way. They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are [...]
Last week: 32 (+0) Record: 1-7 The Jaguars lost at home by 17 to the Lions last week and some people are crediting the Jaguars’ trade of Mike Thomas to the Lions right before the game as part of the reason. The move was actually a good one for the Jaguars because they were able [...]
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put [...]
Detroit Lions (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Lions’ offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s [...]
Last week: 32 (+0) Record: 1-6 The Chiefs are bad, but I still think the Jaguars are the worst team in the league, in spite of the fact that they hung with a banged up Green Bay squad. In rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank dead last at -15.0%. No one else is worse [...]
Trade for Jaguars: Mike Thomas caught 63 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 23 year old receiver in 2010, but it’s all gone downhill since there and he has just 13 catches for 80 yards this year, buried behind Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and Laurent Robinson on the depth chart. Given that [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3) So apparently Chad Henne is worse than Blaine Gabbert? I didn’t even know that was possible. Before he got hurt, Gabbert looked serviceable against Oakland’s terrible secondary last week, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. However, then Henne came in and went 9 [...]
Last week: 32 (+0) Record: 1-5 Jacksonville is by far the worst team in the league despite their near win in Oakland and it’s not even close. Their yards per play differential is -1.6. No one else is worse than -1.1. Their rate of sustaining drives differential is -16.8%. No one else is worse than [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4) In the write up for Colts/Browns, I mentioned Bill Simmons’ theory from his picks column this week that because dogs are doing so well this year (57-32 ATS), the odds makers would start shrinking the spreads to compensate so the general public won’t catch on and just starting [...]