Nov 192015

Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team […]

Nov 132015

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6) The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in […]

Oct 242015

Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are […]

Oct 102015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) The Buccaneers are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-19 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Buccaneers are here […]

Oct 042015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t […]

Sep 262015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at New England Patriots (2-0) Jacksonville beat the Dolphins last week in Jacksonville, but I’m still having a very tough time believing they’re not one of the worst teams in the league, especially with left tackle Luke Joeckel, right guard Brandon Linder, tight end Julius Thomas, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and defensive end […]

Sep 192015

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) I had the Dolphins as one of the best teams in the league going into the season. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Now they’re improved on the offensive line, improved in the […]

Sep 122015

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that […]

Dec 232014

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes […]

Dec 122014

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 […]

Dec 062014

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where […]

Nov 272014

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a […]

Nov 202014

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to […]

Nov 082014

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing […]