Oct 052013

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Kansas City is 4-0 right now. However, their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They luck out here though. While Tennessee is 3-1, they are without quarterback Jake Locker for the foreseeable future with a hip injury. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. You can credit a tough defense for that.

However, Locker hasn’t thrown an interception in 111 attempts, a huge part of the reason why the Titans have yet to commit a turnover this season. He was probably not going to continue that if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but the drop off from Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown an interception on 3.6% of his career attempts, will be noticeable in this aspect. Between that and the fact that the Titans won’t recover every single one of their fumbles all season (3 of 3), they definitely won’t be able to count on winning the turnover battle every game going forward.

The Chiefs won’t be able to either. They are +9 in turnovers this season, but this type of thing is really inconsistent. The Chiefs and Giants came into last week’s game +9 and -9 in turnovers respectively and were even in turnovers in that gain. However, I think the Chiefs are more talented than the Titans in almost every aspect. It’ll be a tight game between two defensive lead teams, which is why I’m not confident in the Chiefs as favorites of a field goal on the road, but they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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