I actually thought Cherilus would be a nice value signing this off-season. Much maligned in his first 4 years in Detroit, Cherilus got healthy this year and actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 8th rated offensive tackle. I’m always wary of guys who underachieve and then break out in their contract year, but it’s very possible [...]
What a weird year for the Lions. They outgained opponents by nearly a thousand yards, but still went 4-12, losing their final 8, after entering the year with hopes of improving on a 2011 playoff appearance. A 3-8 record in games decided by 7 or less and a 30th ranked -16 turnover differential doomed them [...]
Chicago Bears (9-6) at Detroit Lions (4-11) Chicago is in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Lions would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. However, unlike the Eagles against the Giants, I don’t really like the Lions here. [...]
Last week: 28 (+0) Record: 4-11 Net points per drive: -0.11 (20th) DVOA: 0.0% (15th) Weighted DVOA: 1.7% (14th) Detroit Studs RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 11 passes for 225 yards on 16 attempts on 54 [...]
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Detroit Lions (4-10) Normally I like going against huge line movements because I hate week to week overreactions. This line was Atlanta -1 last week and now it’s at -4.5, skipping over two key numbers of 3 and 4. At first glance, this appears warranted. The Lions got blown out by the [...]
Last week: 27 (-1) Record: 4-10 Net points per drive: -0.02 (15th) DVOA: -0.5% (14th) Weighted DVOA: -1.0% (16th) The Lions have had some bad luck with losing close, winnable games and having turnovers returned for touchdowns (they’ve had a ridiculous 10 turnovers/punts/kickoffs returned for touchdown this year), but they are the league’s most underachieving [...]
Last week: 26 (-1) Record: 4-9 Net points per drive: 0.09 (14th) DVOA: 2.3% (13th) Weighted DVOA: -2.4% (12th) Detroit took another step towards being this year’s team that goes from a playoff spot to 5 wins or fewer by losing to the Lions and dropping to 4-9. 1-2 over their final 3 games clinches [...]
Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4) This is a really interesting game. Earlier this week, I wrote about some of the parity related things that happen every single year and how those could be used to help predict games the rest of the way. The Lions are by far the likeliest candidate to [...]
Last week: 20 (-6) Record: 4-8 Net points per drive: 0.13 (14th) DVOA: 0.9 (14th) Weighted DVOA: 0.8 (15th) Studs RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 78 yards on 4 attempts WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 13 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts [...]
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7) The Lions are in a bad spot and normally this is the type of team I like to stay away from. They are favorites after a loss as dogs and will next be dogs. Last week, they lost to the Texans and next week they have to go [...]
Last week: 25 (+5) Record: 4-7 Net points per drive: 0.16 (13th) DVOA: 4.0% (11th) Weighted DVOA: 5.0% (11th) Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now Studs WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown on 17 [...]
Last week: 19 (-6) Record: 4-6 I’ve said it a bunch of times this year, but every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. It’s looked like a shaky prediction as times this year, especially since every single playoff team from last year is 5-5 or better right now, [...]
Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5) Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on [...]
Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5) I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting [...]
Last week: 19 (-3) Record: 4-5 Every year one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. However, this year, 9 games in, all 12 of last year’s playoff teams have at least 4 wins. That means either this won’t happen this year (only one time in the past decade it didn’t happen) [...]
Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4) Like Indianapolis +1 at Jacksonville, this game is one I really wished I would have made a play on last week. Like Jacksonville, Minnesota was a favorite last week in the early line for this game, -2.5, but now they are +2.5 here at home, a massive line [...]
Last week: 20 (+4) Record: 4-4 With the NFC East struggling lately outside of the Giants and the NFC West struggling lately outside of San Francisco and Seattle (who the Lions beat), the Lions are suddenly right back in the thick of things after a disappointing 1-3 start. I think they rank firmly ahead of [...]
Detroit Lions (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Lions’ offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s [...]
Last week: 26 (+6) Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could happen to this offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s also given 2nd round [...]
Trade for Jaguars: Mike Thomas caught 63 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 23 year old receiver in 2010, but it’s all gone downhill since there and he has just 13 catches for 80 yards this year, buried behind Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and Laurent Robinson on the depth chart. Given that [...]
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4) I feel like I say this about the Seahawks every week when I pick their game, but I love picking their games because they have such a big home/road disparity. On the road, they are 16-29 ATS since 2007, as opposed to 30-14 ATS at home. As dogs, [...]
Last week: 26 (-4) Record: 2-4 The Bengals are the favorite to be this year’s team to goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but the Lions are right there in the loaded NFC at 2-4. The issue is that both yards per play and rate of sustaining drives say they’re [...]
Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1) This week, I put the Bears 1st in my Power Rankings. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely [...]
Last week: 23 (+1) Record: 2-3 The Lions finally won last week, but the NFC is loaded. The NFC is 19-9 against the AFC this year. You’re going to have to assume, as an NFC team, that you’ll have to at least win 10 games to get into the playoffs and maybe 11 to be [...]
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be [...]