Jan 062017

Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) Detroit made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, despite losing their final 3 games of the regular season, but they’re one of a few playoff teams I don’t think much of (Houston, Oakland, and Miami are the others). They’re the only playoff team that hasn’t beaten another playoff […]

Dec 312016

Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. The Packers are a great example of that. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Packers were -5 in […]

Dec 252016

Detroit Lions (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-2) With the Eagles’ upset victory over the Giants on Thursday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and homefield advantage all the way through to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys have said they won’t take their foot off the gas, but it’s going to be […]

Dec 102016

Chicago Bears (3-9) at Detroit Lions (8-4) The Lions are 8-4, but rank 22nd in first down rate differential. They’ve allowed 8 more first downs than they’ve gained and 3 more touchdowns than they’ve scored. Their 15-point win in New Orleans last week was easily their most impressive game of the season, but their other […]

Nov 192016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4) After a busy off-season in which the Jaguars had among the most cap space in the NFL and spent accordingly, the Jaguars entered the season with high expectations and have had an incredibly disappointing season, falling to 2-7 last week with loss to the Houston Texans. Their last […]

Oct 222016

Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3) I have these two teams as more or less equal. They’re also very similar, as both teams have effective offenses, but weak defenses. In terms of first down percentage, Detroit ranks 4th offensively and Washington ranks 5th, but Washington is a few spots higher on the defensive side […]

Oct 152016

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3) This line at 3 suggests these two teams are equal. I disagree with that. Despite, having a worse record than the Rams, the Lions are the significantly superior team in this matchup. Despite having three wins, the Rams rank dead last in first down percentage differential and […]

Oct 012016

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3) Both of these teams enter this one incredibly banged up. While the Lions are missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, the Bears’ injuries are more numerous. Not only are they missing quarterback Jay Cutler, but they’re also missing […]

Sep 242016

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-1) I’ve seen a couple articles this week asking what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That doesn’t make sense to me. The Packers opened their season with two road games and played pretty well in both games all things considering, beating a capable Jacksonville team week […]

Dec 202015

Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Saints were favored by just 1.5 points over the Lions on the early line last week, but have since jumped to 3 point favorites, following their upset victory in Tampa Bay and the Lions’ upset loss in St. Louis. That’s a significant line movement, considering about […]