Oct 222016

Los Angeles Rams (3-3) vs. New York Giants (3-3) at London

The Rams have fallen back to earth in the last 2 weeks, losing back-to-back games after a surprising 3-1 start. They’re healthier now than they’ve been for a couple weeks, getting defensive ends Robert Quinn and William Hayes back from injury, but they’re still without defensive tackle Michael Brockers and cornerback Trumaine Johnson. They’ll be better defensively with their top-2 pass rushers back, but they’re far from good even with Quinn and Hayes. On the season, they rank 29th in first down percentage differential. Even when they started the season 3-1, they lost the first down percentage battle in all 3 games. Their 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points, but their losses have come by a combined 42, giving them a point differential of -27, 7th worst in the NFL.

The Giants, meanwhile, are better on both sides of the ball and come into this game ranked 6th in first down percentage differential. They’re just 3-3, but that’s pretty impressive considering they’re -10 in turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent from week-to-week and if the Giants have just an even turnover margin going forward it should be noticeable on the scoreboard. It also helps that the Rams are probably the worst team they’ve played all year, as the Giants have had the toughest strength of schedule of any team thus far this season. This team is better than their record and the schedule is easier moving forward, starting this week. Not only is 3 points is too few, but the favorite also usually covers in these London games, going 9-4 ATS in the last 13, as better teams tend to do a better job of handling a weird situation like this. I like the Giants at 3 and I like them a lot more than 2.5 if you can get it.

New York Giants 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

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