Oct 222016

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

The Patriots really lucked out by getting the Steelers at a time in which they’re incredibly banged up. The biggest injury is the one that has Ben Roethlisberger out for at least this week and likely several weeks. Instead, backup Landry Jones will start in his absence. The dropoff from Roethlisberger to Jones is as big as any starter to backup dropoff in the NFL. It’s not just Roethlisberger though, as the Steelers are also missing defensive end Cameron Heyward, their top defensive player, and starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert. This line moved from even on the early line last week to 7.5 in favor of the visiting New England Patriots this week, primarily as a result of the Roethlisberger injury, but also as a result of how poorly their defense played in Miami last week without Heyward. That might be a little bit too much of a line movement, so I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 27 Pitsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +7.5

Confidence: None

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