Dec 132013

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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