New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)
So far, the Jets have alternated wins and losses over the first 10 games, the first team in NFL history to do so. Can they extend that into 11 games and win here in Baltimore? Well, I think the fact that they’ve done so well off of losses this season is something worth noting. The public tends to overreact to their losses because they’re the Jets and they’re the media’s punching bad. The Jets do a very good job feeding off of that and winning as an undervalued and overlooked opponent. The Jets are also in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They could overlook the Jets with a game against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before a Thursday Night Game since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and last week the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers with a push. The Ravens are also coming off a crushing overtime loss as underdogs in Chicago last week. Home favorites are 18-30 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road underdogs in overtime.
All that being said, I can’t put anything on the Jets. The Ravens are pretty unbeatable at home, going 26-4 straight up since 2010. Those 4 losses include two against the rival Steelers, who always play the Ravens tough, the Packers, and the Broncos. I really don’t think the Jets are that caliber. Even this year, when they’ve struggled by their standards, they are 4-1 at home, losing only by 2 against the Packers and covering in all 5 instances. The Jets don’t have to win here to cover, which is why I think they’re the right side, but we’re not getting enough points here for me to be that confident in the Jets. If this line increases, I might increase the confidence. The Ravens are just 6-10 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of 5.5 or more. That’s a long way away though.
Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4