Sep 252016
 

New York Jets (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. This game has a significant one, as the Chiefs were favored by 4 points on the early line, but the line has since dropped to 3, as a result of the Jets’ upset victory in the road in Buffalo last week. That might not seem like a huge movement, as it’s only one point, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so that point matters. The line movement is also a bit of an overreaction, as the Bills are not a good opponent, so the Jets’ road win isn’t that noteworthy. It’s definitely not noteworthy enough to warrant a significant line movement.

This line now suggests these two teams are even. That’s not far off, but I think the Chiefs are a little bit better going into this game, especially with Brandon Marshall on a snap count for the Jets, due to a knee injury. I had the Chiefs ranked a little bit higher coming into the season than the Jets and I haven’t seen anything through 2 games to suggest I was wrong about either of these teams. I don’t have a strong lean either way, but I’m taking the Chiefs. This could easily be a field goal push though.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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