Dec 232014
 

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game decided by 3 or fewer points and the 5th in the last 6. This week, going into Miami, the Jets could be completely flat after coming so close and falling short in their Super Bowl.

On top of that, this line is way too low. I don’t understand this at all. The Dolphins were 7 point favorites in New York a few weeks ago and now they’re only 5 point favorites at home in Miami. Sure, they didn’t cover last time around, but they still did get a tough road victory. The Dolphins haven’t been great in recent weeks, getting blown out at home by the Ravens and on the road in New England, but they had a strong performance last week at home against the Vikings. The final score says they only won by 2, but they won the first down battle 36-20.

Now on the season, the Dolphins rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 2.40%. The Jets, conversely, rank all the way down at 27, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 72.08% for their opponents, a differential of -4.11%. We’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins, who don’t have any distractions during week 17 with their coach’s future publicly assured and should be able to take care of a drastically inferior opponent who could be flat off of last week’s close loss with Rex Ryan likely to be fired after the game.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Miami -5

Confidence: Medium

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