New York Jets (4-10) at New England Patriots (12-2)
The Patriots finish the season in Miami next week, while the Jets host the Bills. That puts the Patriots in a much better spot because the Miami isn’t a real distraction for them. The Buffalo game might not be a distraction for the Jets given that they’re facing the Patriots this week, but it’s tough for inferior teams to keep it close against superior teams with a big home game on deck, while superior teams tend to take care of business and cover the spread when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. While teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, as the Patriots will be next week in Miami, teams are 43-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as the Jets will be next week against the Bills. That being said, the Patriots are favored by 17 here at home, so we’re getting terrible value with them. This is a no confidence pick, but New England is the pick in pick ‘em pools.
New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 13
Pick against the spread: New England -17