Feb 052017
 

Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2) in Super Bowl LI There are distinct differences between these two teams, but they have one impressive similarity: both teams have lost key players and played as well or better without them. On New England’s side, one of their losses was a self-inflicted one if you can […]

Jan 212017
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2) Like the Packers in the NFC, the Steelers enter this game on a long winning streak, winning 9 straight games to go from 4-5 to 11-5, the 3rd seed in the AFC, 2 playoff wins, and an AFC Championship appearance. However, the Steelers have two big obstacles […]

Jan 212017
 

Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are red hot right now and understandably getting a lot of attention. Since an unimpressive 4-6 start, the Packers have won 8 straight games to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record and to win two playoff games and advance to the […]

Jan 132017
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) The Chiefs have been on my overrated list for a while. Despite their 12-4 record, they rank dead last among remaining the 8 remaining playoff teams in first down rate differential. Their record is largely the result of 6 wins by 8 points or less (including two […]

Jan 132017
 

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3) This is another game I’ve gone back and forth on all week. On one hand, the Packers are hot right now and the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years.  Since 2010, they are 31-24 ATS on the road, as opposed to 20-36 ATS at […]

Jan 132017
 

Houston Texans (10-7) at New England Patriots (14-2) The Patriots are 16 point favorites here in this matchup with the Houston Texans, the first time a team has been favored by that many points in the playoffs since the 1998 Minnesota Vikings blew out the Arizona Cardinals 41-21 as 16 point home favorites in the […]

Jan 132017
 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5) This might sound weird considering they finished with the 2nd best record in the NFC and secured a first round bye, but I think the Falcons are an underrated team. In a year with so few top level teams, I don’t understand why the Falcons are not regularly […]

Jan 062017
 

New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. On average, a team that wins the turnover battle by 4 in a game has a turnover margin of +0.0 […]

Jan 062017
 

Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) Detroit made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, despite losing their final 3 games of the regular season, but they’re one of a few playoff teams I don’t think much of (Houston, Oakland, and Miami are the others). They’re the only playoff team that hasn’t beaten another playoff […]

Jan 062017
 

Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) The Dolphins made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 thanks to a 10-6 record, but they still have a lot of problems and are not as good as their record suggests. Many of their wins were close, while many of their losses were not. They went […]

Jan 052017
 

2016 Straight Up: 160-94-2 (62.99%) Against the Spread: 123-123-10 (50.00%) Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%) High Confidence: 12-17-2 (41.38%) Medium Confidence: 40-26-4 (60.61%) Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 63-49-6 (56.25%) Low Confidence: 30-39-2 (43.48%) No Confidence: 30-35-2 (46.15%) Upset Picks: 25-25 (50.00%) Since 2013 Straight Up: 666-387-4 (63.25%) Against the Spread: 545-484-28 (52.96%) […]

Dec 312016
 

Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (8-7) When both are fully healthy, I have the Bengals a little higher than the Ravens, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential and the Ravens rank 21st, but the Bengals are far from fully healthy right now. Not only are they missing wide receiver AJ Green […]

Dec 312016
 

Houston Texans (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (8-7) The Titans had a week from hell last week. Not only did they suffer their biggest loss of the season, losing 38-17 in Jacksonville of all places (previously their biggest loss this season was by 9), but they also lost starting quarterback Marcus Mariota with a broken leg […]

Dec 312016
 

Oakland Raiders (12-3) at Denver Broncos (8-7) The Raiders were dealt a huge blow last week when quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg, likely knocking him out for the season, but, despite their record, the Raiders probably would have had trouble advancing deep in the playoffs regardless. Even though they are 12-3, they rank just […]

Dec 312016
 

New England Patriots (13-2) at Miami Dolphins (10-5) In a league with few top level teams, the Patriots have to stand out atop the league. Not only are they the Patriots and they’ve done this before, but they rank 1st in the NFL in first down rate differential and point differential, despite not even having […]

Dec 312016
 

Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. The Packers are a great example of that. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Packers were -5 in […]

Dec 312016
 

New York Giants (10-5) at Washington Redskins (8-6-1) I typically don’t like to bet on teams that are expected to rest their starters, but I’m making an exception here because, even though this line suggests the Giants are going to rest their starters and they don’t have anything to play for locked into the 5th […]