Nov 262016
 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5) Already in the middle of a down year, the Bengals suffered two major injuries last week, as running back Giovani Bernard went down for the season with a torn ACL and #1 wide receiver AJ Green went down for an extended period of time with a strained hamstring. […]

Nov 262016
 

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3) The Chiefs are 7-3, but they’ve been overly reliant on close wins (4 of 7 wins by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover margin (+13 on the season, best in the NFL), and return touchdowns (+4 return touchdown margin). Those things tend to be very inconsistent […]

Nov 262016
 

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank 7th in first down rate […]

Nov 262016
 

New York Giants (7-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-11) The Giants haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown all season and have a 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Ordinarily, I like to pick against teams that are regularly squeaking out victories, especially as big favorites and especially as big […]

Nov 262016
 

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Chicago Bears (2-9) Despite 5-6 record, the Titans enter this game 6th in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +6 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +54 point differential (which […]

Nov 262016
 

Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 32-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived (including 2-0 ATS so far this season). This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet […]

Nov 232016
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as home underdogs. I underestimated […]

Nov 232016
 

Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1) I mentioned this in my Minnesota/Detroit pick as well. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Division rivals know each other well, so it makes sense that comparable teams tend to […]

Nov 222016
 

Week 11 Straight Up: 9-5 Against the spread: 5-9 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-2 Medium Confidence: 3-1 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 0-3 Season Straight Up: 98-61-2 (61.64%) Against the spread: 74-79-8 (48.37%) Pick of the Week: 8-3 (72.73%) High Confidence: 9-9-2 (50.00%) Medium Confidence: 26-17-3 (60.47%) Low Confidence: […]

Nov 192016
 

New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8) The Patriots lost last week at home to the Seattle Seahawks. It was just their 2nd loss of the season, but there’s reason for concern. The Patriots’ defense got gashed all game in their first game since the controversial Jamie Collins trade. Also controversially, the Patriots […]