Draft board overall prospect rank: #181
Draft board overall quarterback rank: #7
Overall rating: 56 (5th round)
40 time: 5.13
· Great arm strength
· Prototypical size (6-5 243)
· Strong, breaks tackles
· 3 year starter
· Productive player in a major conference (2009: 63.6%, 6.1 YPA, 19/9 TD/INT, 2010: 67.1%, 7.5 YPA, 20/10 TD/INT, 2011: 69.1%, 7.7 YPA, 28/14 TD/INT)
· Highly recruited
· All the tools
· Played with very little supporting cast, particularly offensive line and defense
· Played through injury
· Tough, durable
· Good short to intermediate accuracy
· Gotten off to hot starts in each of last 2 seasons
· Flashes on tape
· Pro style experience
· Footwork is a mess
· Poor decision making
· Gun shy – takes too long to make decisions, opts to check down way too often
· Not a winner (4-13 in last 17 games)
· Leadership? Intangibles?
· Poor pocket presence
· Takes too many sacks
· Dinks and dunks too much, rather than trying to lead scoring drives
· Doesn’t trust his arm
· Poor deep accuracy
· Bailed out often by Juron Criner
· Awful Pro Day – scouts said he couldn’t even throw a spiral
· Statue in the pocket (5.13 40)
· Struggles late in the season
NFL Comparison: Jevan Snead
As a prospect, Foles reminds me of Jevan Snead, who came out in 2010. Snead was at one point a potential first round prospect because he had all the tools and even was considered a possible 3rd round pick after his final season ended. However, he had a poor draft pre-season and did not even get drafted, much to the surprise of many. He had all the tools, but no one wanted to bother with a draft pick on him because his game was too much of a mess. Tampa Bay signed him as an undrafted free agent and he has yet to take a snap in the NFL.
Foles might not go undrafted. Someone might take a chance on him, but it’s important to note that it is a pretty big chance. He also could go undrafted like Snead somewhat surprisingly did in 2010. Like Snead, Foles has poor footwork, questionable decision making, and poor deep accuracy. Snead threw 20 interceptions in his last season at Mississippi. Foles threw 14, but could have thrown more. He was often bailed out by receiver Juron Criner, especially in the red zone.
I watched Nick Foles go toe-to-toe with Andrew Luck and Stanford earlier this season. Their stats were very, very similar, in fact, you could argue Foles had the better stats. Luck went 20 of 31 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Foles went 24 of 33 for 249 yards and a touchdown. Foles, in fact, completed his first 16 passes. However, Stanford won 37-10.
The difference was evident. Luck showed tremendous pocket presence, leadership, and made all the clutch throws. He led touchdown drives. Foles seemed more content dinking and dunking his way to nice stats, but there was no substance. He’d throw short of the sticks on 3rd down and stall around the 40 and takes untimely sacks because he had the ball too long. He’s got a great arm, he just doesn’t seem to trust it. He also seems to lack the intangibles. He doesn’t have “it”. He’s not a winner.
On top of that, he starts seasons well, but doesn’t finish them well. This season, he started with 10-0 TD-INT, but finished 18-14 TD-INT in his last 8 games. On the season, he completed 69.1% of his passes, 7.7 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Last season he had a very high completion percentage (mid 70s) to start the season, but finished at 67.1%. I thought that was related to a leg injury that he came back too quickly from, but it’s starting to look like a trend.
He’s got the base arm strength to be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, but so did Snead and he went undrafted. So did Kyle Boller and JaMarcus Russell and they were complete busts. As a 5th or 6th round pick, you can definitely work with him as a developmental 3rd quarterback, so I think he’s worth a selection there. I just wouldn’t get my hopes up about him, like Trent Dilfer (called him a top-15 pick a couple months ago) or Todd McShay (has him ranked 4th on his quarterback board).