Jan 212017

Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are red hot right now and understandably getting a lot of attention. Since an unimpressive 4-6 start, the Packers have won 8 straight games to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record and to win two playoff games and advance to the […]

Jan 132017

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3) This is another game I’ve gone back and forth on all week. On one hand, the Packers are hot right now and the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years.  Since 2010, they are 31-24 ATS on the road, as opposed to 20-36 ATS at […]

Jan 062017

New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. On average, a team that wins the turnover battle by 4 in a game has a turnover margin of +0.0 […]

Dec 312016

Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. The Packers are a great example of that. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Packers were -5 in […]

Dec 102016

Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6) Typically, the Seahawks are unstoppable in the second half of the season, going 33-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll’s first season in 2011 in games 9-16 of the regular season. This year, they got off to a strong start, covering in games 9 and 10, but then they […]

Nov 192016

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1) The common narrative is that the sky is falling for the Packers right now, following 3 straight losses and a 47-25 thrashing in Tennessee last week. However, their loss in Atlanta came by 1 point, on the road, against one of the better teams in the league. […]

Nov 122016

Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5) The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they […]

Nov 052016

Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3) The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, entering this game with the 4th lowest first down percentage differential in the league, thanks largely to a defense that ranks 31st in first down percentage allowed. One of the oldest rosters in […]

Oct 152016

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1) The Cowboys pulled an impressive home upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, winning 28-14. Ordinarily, teams struggle after a home upset victory, as teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2012. One of the reasons for that is home upset wins tend to move […]

Sep 242016

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-1) I’ve seen a couple articles this week asking what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That doesn’t make sense to me. The Packers opened their season with two road games and played pretty well in both games all things considering, beating a capable Jacksonville team week […]

Sep 172016

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0) This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Minnesota is still a solid team despite losing Teddy Bridgewater, but they are also missing defensive starters Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd and quarterback Sam Bradford is going into his first start with the team, […]

Jan 162016

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3) The Cardinals clobbered the Packers 38-8 at home just 3 weeks ago back in week 16, so people don’t seem to be giving the Packers much of a chance. However, as the Vikings showed last week, even though a team blew you out recently, you still have […]

Jan 092016

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7) The Redskins come out of the NFC East, arguably the weakest division in football, but they’ve turned into a pretty good team. They rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams, but they’re hot right now and have been since getting both […]