Sep 042014

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0) I love betting the Seahawks at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 41-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 40-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.55 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-39 record [...]

Aug 212014

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) Over the past 5 seasons, Rodgers has played 71 games (only missing 2 games combined from 2009-2012) and completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.40 YPA, 159 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, a QB rating of 108.2. He’s also rushed for 1308 yards and 14 touchdowns on 266 [...]

Jan 022014

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) Aaron Rodgers is back for the Packers and that obviously makes a big difference. He started out a little shaky against Chicago, understandable because he missed almost 2 months with injury, throwing 2 early picks, but bounced back to finish 25 of 39 for 318 yards [...]

Dec 262013

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7) Aaron Rodgers is back! The Packers are saved! Right? Well that seems to be what everyone is thinking. The public pulse is that the Packers are now de facto NFC North Champions now that Mike McCarthy has said the words “Aaron Rodgers will be our starting quarterback” [...]

Dec 202013

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In [...]

Dec 132013

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6) Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean the Packers will have trouble [...]

Dec 072013

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, [...]

Nov 302013

Last week: 13 (-2) Record: 5-6-1 I’m keeping the Packers here because Aaron Rodgers is expected back next week. They could easily win out against a schedule of Atlanta, @ Dallas, Pittsburgh, and @ Chicago. It probably wouldn’t get them into the playoffs, but this is a completely different team without Rodgers. Their performance without [...]

Nov 212013

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5) One of the most powerful trends in football says that divisional home favorites rarely cover before being divisional road dogs. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002, which is ridiculously low and impossible to ignore. The Packers are in that spot this week, as they [...]

Nov 152013

Last week: 11 (+0) Record: 5-4 The Packers just can’t catch a break. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which [...]

Nov 082013

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3) Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional [...]

Oct 312013

Last week: 8 (+3) Record: 5-2 The Packers have blown out the Browns and Vikings over the past two weeks and were especially impressive against the Vikings in Minnesota. Even the final score of 44-31 doesn’t tell how much of a blowout it was as the Vikings needed incredible special teams to even get to [...]