Nov 252015

Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7) Carolina is undefeated and Dallas is 3-7, but the Cowboys are the ones favored here in Dallas (albeit by 1 point). That’s because 5 of the Cowboys’ 7 losses have come by less than a touchdown and they’re finally healthy offensively. Tony Romo made just his 3rd start […]

Nov 212015

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0) The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving […]

Nov 062015

Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0) The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started by Aaron Rodgers in his […]

Oct 312015

Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0) Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be in the Colts’ best interest […]

Oct 242015

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-0) The Panthers are 5-0 and rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re only favored by 35 points here. That’s reasonable though, considering the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and considering the Eagles are in a great spot, coming off […]

Oct 172015

Carolina Panthers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3) The Seahawks have a well-documented homefield advantage, but I think it’s kind of too well-documented at this point, to the point where the Seahawks always get a ton of extra points at home. As a result, they are just 6-5 ATS in their last 11 home games, after […]

Oct 032015

Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) Typically, the better team not only prevails but also covers when they don’t have any distractions on the horizon and the Panthers are in a good situation as a result, as they are 3.5 point road favorites in Tampa Bay this week, ahead of their week 5 […]

Sep 262015

New Orleans Saints (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-0) The Saints were one of the best teams in the league that didn’t make the playoffs in 2014, finishing 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. However, they had a very rough off-season, getting rid of Kenny Stills, Ben Grubbs, and Jimmy Graham on offense and […]

Sep 122015

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that […]

Jan 072015

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4) I had the Panthers as the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs. They won their final 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and, in their final 5 games, they moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents, a differential of […]

Dec 312014

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) The Panthers went into Atlanta last week and won 34-3, winning the NFC South and securing a home playoff game with a record of 7-8-1. After the game, Tony Dungy remarked that he believed the Panthers could go into Seattle and knock off the Seahawks the way they’re […]

Dec 242014

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9) This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.82% […]

Dec 202014

Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-8-1) The Browns had a horrific showing last week at home in Johnny Manziel’s debut losing the first down battle 5-24 against the Bengals and moving the chains at a 35.71% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for the Bengals. As a result of that, this line with Carolina favored […]

Dec 052014

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7) This line moved from 6.5 to 9.5 over the past week. Ordinarily, I hate going with huge line movements as they tend to be overreactions to one week (for example, Carolina getting blown out in Minnesota and New Orleans winning in Pittsburgh), but in this case I […]

Nov 282014

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7) This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.21% that […]

Nov 132014

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6) The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, […]

Nov 082014

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th […]

Oct 162014

Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game. I like their chances of […]