Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (7-8) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. [...]
Last week: 21 (-1) Record: 6-9 Net points per drive: -0.09 (19th) DVOA: 4.8% (12th) Weighted DVOA: 9.6% (9th) Studs LT Jordan Gross: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 3 attempts LOLB Thomas Davis: 9 solo tackles, 9 stops, allowed 6 catches for 9 yards [...]
Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) One of my favorite trends is the six and six trend, which says that teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. So far this year, teams that are currently 5-9 or worse are 2-5 ATS as [...]
Last week: 25 (+4) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.20 (21st) DVOA: 3.4% (14th) Weighted DVOA: 8.1% (11th) The Panthers have actually been playing some good football lately and have been an underrated team all year, losing just twice by more than 6 points (once on Thursday Night, in a game they were completely [...]
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8) I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost. Well, they couldn’t quite close [...]
Last week: 27 (+2) Record: 4-9 Net points per drive: -0.38 (24th) DVOA: -1.6% (16th) Weighted DVOA: -1.4% (16th) Another team that has been better than their record all season, the Panthers showed it last week, beating the Falcons, who they almost knocked off earlier this season. Week 16, they host the Raiders, which should [...]
Atlanta Falcons (11-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-9) I really like using trends to pick NFL games. Not all games have the same weight on a team’s schedule and games don’t always mean the same thing for the teams playing it. This is why upsets happen. However, there aren’t any really good ones in play here, [...]
Last week: 25 (-2) Record: 3-9 Net points per drive: -0.47 (26th) DVOA: -3.5% (18th) Weighted DVOA: -2.0% (18th) Studs QB Cam Newton: 15 of 27 for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 102.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 31 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, [...]
Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) Obviously, I can’t do this write up without mentioning the tragedy that happened Saturday Morning. Early Saturday morning, Chiefs’ starting middle linebacker Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend at their house and then came to the Chiefs’ practice facility and committed suicide in front of several teammates and [...]
Last week: 29 (+4) Record: 3-8 Net points per drive: -0.46 (25th) DVOA: -4.4% (19th) Weighted DVOA: -4.2% (19th) Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch Studs QB Cam Newton: 18 of 28 for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 100.2 adjusted QB rating, [...]
Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) I was expecting the Eagles to be favored in this one and I was going to make a big play on Carolina for several reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Eagles appear to have quit. Even if they haven’t, they have really struggled to cover [...]
Last week: 29 (+0) Record: 2-8 This team’s struggles in close games in the 4th quarter get more ridiculous every game. How did they blow that 21-10 late lead? After losing in overtime to the Buccaneers last week, Cam Newton is now 1-11 in games decided by a touchdown or less. The good news is [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7) The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and [...]
Last week: 29 (+0) Record: 2-7 Last week’s loss was only their 2nd loss by more than a touchdown all year. They aren’t to be overlooked the rest of the way. Cam Newton is obviously having a major sophomore slump, but for all of their offensive struggles, they’ve been noticeably improved defensively this year. They’re [...]
Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6) The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the [...]
Last week: 30 (-1) Record: 2-6 Last week I mentioned that Cam Newton is 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less. Well, the good news is that he’s 6-7 in his other 13 games. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a [...]
Carolina Panthers (1-6) at Washington Redskins (3-5) This is one of two trap lines I identified this week. According to this line, the Redskins and the Panthers are comparable teams with Washington as 3 point home favorites. However, Washington is at 3-5 and the Panthers are at 1-6. Because of that, the action is on [...]
Last week: 28 (-2) Record: 1-6 Cam Newton is now 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less and 6-17 overall. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game [...]
Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1) I normally hate laying more than a touchdown, but I like the Bears this week for several reasons. The first reason is simply that I think they’re the best team in the league in this wide open NFL (the undefeated Falcons have played a cupcake schedule and won [...]
Last week: 27 (-1) Record: 1-5 After last week’s loss to the Cowboys, which dropped them to 1-5 on the season, Cam Newton said in a post game interview “something’s gotta change.” Well, maybe this will appease him. GM Marty Hurney was fired Monday Morning. For Hurney, it was about 2 years too late. At [...]
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4) Why does it seem like no matter who is coaching the Cowboys, they seem to continue to make the same dumb mistakes? Last week, they dominated throughout essentially, but were frequently penalized, something that’s been an issue for them all year and dating back to last year. They [...]
Last week: 25 (-2) Record: 1-4 On bye.
Last week: 19 (-6) Record: 1-4 Cam Newton’s career record: 7-14. Have we overrated him? Well, that seems to be the common theme this week. However, it’s more likely he’s just having a sophomore slump. These are just the growing pains you would expect from such a young quarterback. He should be fine long term. [...]
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3) I love exploiting home/road discrepancies, so Seattle is one of my favorite teams to bet on (or against). I’m 4-0 picking their games this year simply following the concept of betting on them at home and against them on the road, all 4 of which were significant plays. [...]
Last week: 19 (+0) Record: 1-3 Last week, I said they were better than they looked against the Giants and they showed it against the Falcons, leading late and only losing by 2. Their decision not to go for the clincher and go for it on 4th down was head scratching, considering all the resources [...]