Oct 082016

New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4) Tom Brady is back from his 4-game suspension and the Patriots are healthier than they have been all season around him, especially with Rob Gronkowski looking like he’s finally healthy enough to be a factor in the passing game, after largely blocking for a conservative offense the […]

Sep 222016

Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0) Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for […]

Sep 102016

New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0) When this line opened at 6, I was thinking I was likely going to take New England. It probably wouldn’t have been for any money, but they had a good team around the quarterback and seemed like they could have made it close. However, that changed when […]

Sep 042016

Quarterback After more than 500 days and seemingly endless headlines and litigation, deflategate officially came to an end this off-season. Brady’s initial suspension was struck down in federal court last off-season, allowing him to play the entire 2015 season, but the NFL won in appeals court this off-season and, after Brady was denied the opportunity […]

Jan 232016

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4) The Patriots lost in Denver earlier this year, but the Patriots were without leading wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and also lost top receiving threat Rob Gronkowski and talented linebacker Dont’a Hightower with injuries in that game. Even still, the Patriots were leading 21-7 in […]

Jan 162016

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4) This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a […]

Jan 022016

New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10) The Patriots are traditionally very good off of a loss, going 34-17 ATS all-time off a loss with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. However, I’m going to go against them this week for three reasons. For one, teams are 81-105 ATS since 1989 off of a […]

Dec 202015

Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2) The Titans rank just 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have been pretty solid offensively, outside of the 2 games that talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota missed with injury. In those 2 games, they moved the chains at a 53.57% rate, as opposed to […]

Dec 042015

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1) The Eagles have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 90-31, dropping them out of 1st place in the weak NFC East and raising questions about whether or not head coach Chip Kelly will return next season. However, the fact that the Eagles are […]

Nov 072015

Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0) The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in […]

Oct 172015

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2) Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 […]

Oct 102015

New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2) How good has the Patriots’ offense been this season? Well, only two teams have more offensive touchdowns than they do (Cincinnati and Atlanta) and that’s despite the fact that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and 30 teams have played more games than them. They’re […]

Sep 262015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at New England Patriots (2-0) Jacksonville beat the Dolphins last week in Jacksonville, but I’m still having a very tough time believing they’re not one of the worst teams in the league, especially with left tackle Luke Joeckel, right guard Brandon Linder, tight end Julius Thomas, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and defensive end […]

Sep 192015

New England Patriots (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0) The Bills had an impressive surprise week 1 home victory against the Indianapolis Colts last week, knocking off Andrew Luck and company 27-14. Many take that victory to mean that the Bills are a legitimate contender in the AFC, but I think it’s more of an indictment […]

Sep 092015

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0) I hate to start the regular season off with a no confidence pick, but I think that’s where I’m going here. I think Pittsburgh is overrated, after having the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season, including the fewest on offense. Their offense won’t be […]