The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player [...]
Tom Brady has agreed to a 3 year 27 million dollar extension. That’s not a typo. For comparison’s sake, Mark Sanchez signed a 3 year 40 million dollar extension last off-season (LOL), while Peyton Manning and Drew Brees respectively signed 5 year 95 million dollar and 5 year 100 million dollar contracts last off-season. If [...]
The Patriots gave it a good run, but they had 40 years of history against them. No team since the 1972 Dolphins has ever won the Super Bowl after losing it the year before. It’s just too physically and emotionally draining to go that far, play that many games, come up short, and then have [...]
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. On one hand, some of the reasons I didn’t like the Patriots last week are still true. They’re still a terrible post-season spread team, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 post-season games and 4-8 ATS all-time as favorites of more than 4 in the post-season. Last [...]
The Patriots blew out the Texans in Foxborough a few weeks ago so they’ll definitely blow them out again right? Well that seems to be what everyone thinks as, in spite of this ridiculous spread, the public is all over the Patriots. How ridiculous is this spread? Well, two weeks ago in the Patriots’ last [...]
It’s 2006 again. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning appear to be on a crash course. Both quarterbacked arguably the best teams in the league (the Broncos and Patriots ranked 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in DVOA, but I don’t trust #1 Seattle on the road). Both are MVP candidates. Peyton Manning is currently viewed [...]
Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (11-4) I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do [...]
Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 11-4 Net points per drive: 0.99 (1st) DVOA: 33.7% (3rd) Weighted DVOA: 35.9% (3rd) Studs SS Patrick Chung: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty ROLB Dont’a Hightower: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 [...]
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) Tom Brady and the Patriots lost last week, but there was still a lot to like from that game. They scored 34 points on the league’s best defense, despite a season high 4 turnovers and despite missing Rob Gronkowski. Their defense surrendered 41 points, but that could [...]
Last week: 1 (-1) Record: 10-4 Net points per drive: 1.01 (1st) DVOA: 39.8% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 45.6% (1st) That game against the 49ers felt like it was 6 hours long. It was like 2 games, one the 49ers dominated and one the Patriots dominated. All I can say is I can’t wait for the [...]
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3) Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum [...]
Last week: 1 (+0) Record: 10-3 Net points per drive: 1.17 (1st) DVOA: 41.8% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 45.8% (1st) Tom Brady improved to 26-11 in his career against teams with a better record than his with his win over the Texans last week. That’s unreal. The Patriots are +198 on the season. The 49ers are [...]
Houston Texans (11-1) at New England Patriots (9-3) This is a huge game. The Texans, tied for best record in the NFL at 11-1, will be dogs for the 2nd time this season as they head to Foxboro to play the New England Patriots. The Texans covered in their first instance as dogs this season, [...]
Last week: 1 (+0) Record: 9-3 Net points per drive: 1.05 (1st) DVOA: 38.9% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 39.7% (1st) New England Studs C Ryan Wendell: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 72 yards on 14 attempts WR Wes Welker: Caught 12 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown on [...]
New England Patriots (8-3) Miami Dolphins (5-6) The Patriots are on quite a roll right now. Once called an “average team” by Tony Dungy when they stood at 3-3, the Patriots have now won 5 games in a row including their last 2 by a combined 65 points and 3 of 4 by 30 or [...]
Last week: 3 (+2) Record: 8-3 Net points per drive: 1.07 (2nd) DVOA: 40.0% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 41.7% (1st) Tier 1: Contenders Studs RB Stevan Ridley: Rushed for 97 yards (41 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 attempts, 1 penalty QB Tom Brady: 18 of 28 for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw [...]
Last week: 4 (+1) Record: 7-3 The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” [...]
New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6) The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the [...]
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3) The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against [...]
Last week: 4 (+0) Record: 6-3 Holy crap this secondary is terrible. They better hope that Aqib Talib making his debut this week and Patrick Chung returning from injury fixes their pass coverage issues. I just can’t see a team with this poor of pass coverage winning the Super Bowl. It’s worse than last year. [...]
Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3) Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last [...]
Last week: 4 (+0) Record: 5-3 On bye.
Trade for Patriots: I absolutely love this trade for the Patriots. They desperately need cornerback help. They have a few young cornerbacks, but none of them are playing well. Tom Brady is 35 so their Super Bowl window is closing. They need a short term solution so they don’t have to rely on developmental cornerbacks [...]
Last week: 4 (+0) Record: 5-3 The team with the best points differential in the league: The New England Patriots. Look out. They have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, host the Bills and Colts, going to the Jets and the Dolphins, hosing the Texans and the 49ers, going to Jacksonville, and [...]
New England Patriots (4-3) “at” St. Louis Rams (3-4) What’s wrong with the Patriots? That’s what people have been asking for 2 weeks. Last week, the answer to that question was nothing. Losing in Seattle to a tough Seahawks team is not an embarrassing loss or a huge upset as some were calling it. Green [...]