Oct 282014
 

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential [...]

Oct 232014
 

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2) The Bears were embarrassed last week at home by the Dolphins, but that’s because the Dolphins were in a fantastic spot, with an incredibly easy game against the Jaguars up next, while the Bears were caught looking forward to this one. I like the Bears’ chances of [...]

Sep 302014
 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2) The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent with a better record than [...]

Sep 272014
 

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs won big time as underdogs [...]

Sep 202014
 

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1) The trends say that the Patriots should be the right side, as they have another easy game coming up in Kansas City next week, while the Raiders host the Dolphins next week. Teams are 68-44 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites the following week. [...]

Aug 162014
 

QB Tom Brady (New England) Tom Brady arguably had the worst statistical season of his career last season, completing 60.5% of his passes (lowest since 2003), for an average of 6.92 YPA (lowest since 2003), 25 touchdowns (lowest in a full season since 2006), and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 87.3. That QB rating [...]

Mar 302014
 

The Patriots are ceding a lot in this extension. Rather than getting Vince Wilfork to take a pay cut, or outright cutting him, saving 8 million dollars and getting a comparable replacement like Kevin Williams for half that price, the Patriots have guaranteed 3 million dollars of Wilfork’s 2014 salary, essentially locking them into paying [...]

Jan 132014
 

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3) One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of [...]

Jan 092014
 

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4) The Patriots won 12 games and locked up a first round bye again. They now have a streak of 13 consecutive winning seasons. No one else has an active streak longer than 4. Over the past 13 seasons, they have 12 seasons of 10+ wins, 11 division [...]

Dec 112013
 

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6) The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball [...]

Nov 202013
 

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3) Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent [...]