Nov 082013
 

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional road dogs before being divisional home favorites, when they face the Redskins in Philadelphia next week. Teams are 47-36 ATS in that spot since 2008. Putting them both together, road underdogs are 84-49 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

However, we can’t purely use trends here because of the uncertainty of Green Bay’s quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers is out. That’s certain, but that’s about it. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily last week, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. However, Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better and they’re probably worse. Wallace will have a whole week to practice as a starter this week and he’ll be prepared to play this time around.

That could really help him and the rest of the Packers’ veteran team could rise up around him. Likewise, the Packers’ coaching staff could get the most out of him the way they did Matt Flynn a few years back. This line shifted about 10 points from last week to this week, from 11 to 1 and the public is all over Philadelphia. That’s a large line movement. It might be justified because Aaron Rodgers is so great, but there’s a chance it’s not, at least in this first game. Because of that, I can’t confidently pick a side. If I had to, I’d take Philadelphia, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None

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