Nov 052016

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Eagles are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is even true with teams off of overtime losses, like the Eagles here (6-2 ATS over that time period). This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

On the other hand, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Eagles here at 2.5. For some reason, this line shifted from 3 on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, despite Philadelphia’s loss and New York’s bye. Considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, that’s a pretty significant line movement. At 3, I’d probably take the Eagles, but it’s tough to do so at 2.5 even with them in a great spot because the Giants are actually a little bit better of a team. They’ve managed a 4-3 record despite a poor -7 turnover margin and a tough schedule. They rank 9th in first down percentage differential, a few spots higher than the Eagles, who rank 13th in that metric. I’m taking the Giants, but for a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: None

 Leave a Reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>