Oct 152016

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2)

This line was even last week, but has since shifted a full three points, with the Eagles now favored by a field goal in Washington, despite the fact that Philadelphia lost in Detroit and Washington won in Baltimore. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant line movements, but Philadelphia has been on my underrated list pretty much all year and I think it’s fair that they’re field goal favorites here against a Redskins team that is significantly inferior, especially without talented tight end Jordan Reed. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in first down percentage differential, while the Redskins are at 26th. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has a 14:13 touchdown to interception ratio without Jordan Reed over the past two seasons, as opposed to 32:12 when he’s in the lineup. That might not all be him, but a lot of it is. I can’t be confident in the Eagles at a 3, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: None

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