Nov 232016

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as home underdogs. I underestimated that fact last week against the Titans. The Steelers, meanwhile, are just 9-22 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era (since 2007). They’ve already fallen flat in both Miami and Philadelphia this year in that spot.

Fortunately, I didn’t do that, as Andrew Luck apparently started experiencing concussion symptoms after last week’s game and will miss this Thanksgiving game as a result. The line has shifted from 3 to 9.5 to compensate, which is a significant shift, but the dropoff from Luck to backup Scott Tolzien is tremendous. Luck has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, on a team that has major issues defensively, running the ball, and blocking on the offensive line. Meanwhile, Tolzien is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league, after spending much of the last two years as the 3rd string quarterback in Green Bay. I’m still taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes, but I’d need at least 10 to put any money on the Colts this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +9.5

Confidence: Low

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