Nov 142015
 

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4) I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of games are decided by 3 […]

Nov 072015
 

Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the […]

Oct 312015
 

New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3) Both of these teams have exceeded expectations this season, after being among the worst teams in the league last season. However, the Jets have been significantly better, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Oakland comes in 17th. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well […]

Oct 242015
 

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4) The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in Minnesota, two teams that are […]

Oct 112015
 

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2) The Broncos are one of six remaining undefeated teams, but haven’t been as dominant as they typically have been in the Peyton Manning era. Their matchups with Baltimore, Kansas City, and Minnesota all could have gone a different way, while their 24-12 win in Detroit wasn’t that much […]

Sep 262015
 

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1) Both of these teams won as home underdogs last week, pushing themselves to 1-1. However, I think the Browns are a significantly better team than the Raiders. The Browns have noted issues in the passing game and minimal offensive skill position talent, but they have one of the […]

Sep 122015
 

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0) To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that […]