Nov 182014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10) The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes [...]

Nov 162014
 

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this seems like a perfect spot for the Chargers to bounce back off of back-to-back big losses on the road in Denver and Miami. Despite those two losses, they are still significantly better than the Raiders, to the [...]

Nov 082014
 

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road [...]

Oct 302014
 

Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3) Despite losing to the Cowboys in their last home game, the Seahawks have still been close to automatic at home recently. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-20-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on [...]

Oct 252014
 

Oakland Raiders (0-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-3) The Browns lost last week in previously 0-6 Jacksonville, doing so in embarrassing fashion, losing by the finale score of 24-6 and getting dominated in the chain game. They moved the chains at a mere 46.43% rate, as opposed to 65.71% for the Jaguars, a differential of -19.29% [...]

Oct 182014
 

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5) The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do that. Winning the turnover battle [...]

Sep 272014
 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously the line should have moved [...]

Sep 202014
 

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1) The trends say that the Patriots should be the right side, as they have another easy game coming up in Kansas City next week, while the Raiders host the Dolphins next week. Teams are 68-44 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites the following week. [...]

Aug 162014
 

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland) McFadden was benched last season for Rashad Jennings mid-season for general incompetence, as he finished the season averaging 3.34 yards per carry. In 2012, he averaged 3.27 yards per carry. He has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and [...]

Dec 262013
 

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11) I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential [...]