Dec 112014
 

Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7) At first glance, this line seems off. The Cardinals aren’t as good as their 10-3 record, but rate of moving the chains differential still says we’re getting a significant amount of line value with them as 4.5 point underdogs. The Cardinals rank 10th, moving the chains at [...]

Nov 082014
 

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1) The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, [...]

Oct 182014
 

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4) The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off [...]

Sep 202014
 

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) This game is relatively meaningless for the Cowboys as compared to next week’s game against the Saints in Dallas. Teams are 74-117 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 1989, including 20-39 ATS when both games are non-divisional. They could easily overlook the Rams. They [...]

Sep 132014
 

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t [...]

Sep 062014
 

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0) This is another one where I wish I had bet earlier when the Rams were 6 point favorites before Sam Bradford tore his ACL. I thought the Rams were overrated before Bradford’s injury, as they finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.32% last season. [...]

Aug 222014
 

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis) Bradford had shown signs of becoming the long-term answer at quarterback for the Rams last season. Bradford completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2013. That TD:INT ratio looks pretty good, but I put more stock in completion percentages and [...]