Dec 032016
 

Washington Redskins (6-4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1) I’ve lost money on the Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, but their price keeps dropping, so I’m going to keep buying. As a result of Arizona’s big loss in Atlanta last week, this line has dropped from 3.5 last week on the early line to 2.5 this week, a […]

Nov 232016
 

Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1) I mentioned this in my Minnesota/Detroit pick as well. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Division rivals know each other well, so it makes sense that comparable teams tend to […]

Nov 192016
 

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1) The common narrative is that the sky is falling for the Packers right now, following 3 straight losses and a 47-25 thrashing in Tennessee last week. However, their loss in Atlanta came by 1 point, on the road, against one of the better teams in the league. […]

Nov 122016
 

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-3-1) When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost all 3 games, all in upset fashion, […]

Oct 292016
 

Washington Redskins (4-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at London Typically, the favorite covers in these London games, as they have done in 10 of the last 14 London games. Playing a neutral site game overseas makes for an unusual week and it makes sense that the better team would have an advantage and would be […]

Oct 222016
 

Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3) I have these two teams as more or less equal. They’re also very similar, as both teams have effective offenses, but weak defenses. In terms of first down percentage, Detroit ranks 4th offensively and Washington ranks 5th, but Washington is a few spots higher on the defensive side […]

Oct 152016
 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2) This line was even last week, but has since shifted a full three points, with the Eagles now favored by a field goal in Washington, despite the fact that Philadelphia lost in Detroit and Washington won in Baltimore. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant line movements, but Philadelphia […]

Jan 092016
 

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7) The Redskins come out of the NFC East, arguably the weakest division in football, but they’ve turned into a pretty good team. They rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among playoff teams, but they’re hot right now and have been since getting both […]

Jan 022016
 

Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11) Ordinarily, I would be all over the Redskins as 3.5 point underdogs here in Dallas, for three reasons. The first is that the Cowboys tend to struggle as hosts, particularly as home favorites, going 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The second is this is a big […]

Dec 242015
 

Washington Redskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) This line suggests these two teams are even, but I disagree. Not only do the Redskins have a better record, but they also rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential, ranking 15th, while the Eagles come in at 24th. On top of that, the Eagles are […]

Dec 192015
 

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7) The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop […]

Dec 122015
 

Washington Redskins (5-7) at Chicago Bears (5-7) The Bears rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains, but have been better when Jay Cutler has been healthy this season. In Cutler’s 10 starts, they’ve moved the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games Cutler missed his injury. Granted, those […]

Nov 212015
 

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0) The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving […]

Nov 152015
 

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5) Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, […]

Nov 072015
 

Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0) The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in […]

Oct 242015
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4) The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here […]

Oct 172015
 

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1) The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much […]