Nov 212015

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0) The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving […]

Nov 152015

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5) Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, […]

Nov 072015

Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0) The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in […]

Oct 242015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4) The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here […]

Oct 172015

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1) The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much […]

Oct 102015

Washington Redskins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-0) The Falcons are a surprising 4-0, one of 6 undefeated teams left in the NFL. However, when you look at the teams they’ve played, it’s not that surprising. They’ve played Philadelphia, the NY Giants (both of whom they barely beat), Dallas (without Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Greg Hardy, […]

Oct 032015

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2) Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray […]

Sep 232015

Washington Redskins (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2) The Redskins entered the season as a laughing stock. Now some are predicting they’ll win the NFC East. How did that happen? Well, the Redskins have played better than people have expected through two games, beating the Rams week 2 and almost beating the Dolphins week 1. […]

Sep 122015

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0) I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too […]

Apr 032015

Trade for Tampa Bay: Goldson topped my list of cap casualty candidates for the Buccaneers. In fact, I was confused why he wasn’t cut earlier in the off-season, a move that would have saved the Buccaneers 4 million in cash and cap space. The Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 […]

Dec 242014

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they […]

Dec 202014

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11) This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed […]

Dec 092014

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9) One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically, which makes a lot of sense. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or […]

Nov 262014

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4) The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), […]

Nov 222014

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving […]

Nov 152014

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6) The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% […]