4-3 to 3-4 Atlanta Falcons This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an [...]
How valuable is Head Coach Sean Payton? Well, if you look just at records, you could say he’s worth 6 wins, as the Saints went from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012. However, Payton’s absence wasn’t the only reason for the decline. Drew Brees’ numbers were still great without Payton, not as good as [...]
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (7-8) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. [...]
Last week: 17 (+0) Record: 7-8 Net points per drive: 0.15 (12th) DVOA: -4.4% (20th) Weighted DVOA: -2.5% (18th) Studs QB Drew Brees: 37 of 53 for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns, 3 drops, 3 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 98.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 53 drop backs (6 of 8, 2 [...]
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6) The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they [...]
Last week: 16 (-1) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: 0.14 (12th) DVOA: -1.3% (15th) Weighted DVOA: 1.5% (14th) The Saints still remain mathematically alive for a playoff spot at 6-8 off a huge blowout home win and now they head to Dallas, where the Cowboys really struggle as home favorites and really struggle in [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by [...]
Last week: 16 (+0) Record: 5-8 Net points per drive: -0.13 (19th) DVOA: -8.1% (22nd) Weighted DVOA: -7.0% (21st) I never considered the Saints a true playoff contender because of their schedule, but it gets easier for them now after 3 straight losses. They have very winnable games at home for the Panthers and Buccaneers [...]
New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5) Earlier this week, I outlined why the Redskins should be considered the favorites to win the NFC East. The Redskins, presumably, have the tiebreaker, by virtue of their better divisional record. They are a game back right now, but they are almost definitely going favored in [...]
Last week: 16 (+0) Record: 5-7 Net points per drive: 0.05 (15th) DVOA: -3.1% (17th) Weighted DVOA: -1.1% (16th) Studs RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 84 yards (34 after contact) on 14 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt LG Ben Grubbs: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass [...]
Last week: 15 (-1) Record: 5-6 Net points per drive: 0.14 (14th) DVOA: 0.3% (16th) Weighted DVOA: 1.8% (14th) Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now Studs CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards and a touchdown on 4 [...]
New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1) On principle, this line is too small. This line essentially suggests that the Saints and Falcons are equals (3 points for home field advantage) and while I agree that the Falcons aren’t as good as their record, I don’t think the Saints and Falcons are equals right [...]
San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5) Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith [...]
Last week: 15 (+3) Record: 5-5 The Saints are red hot right now, but they’ll need to go at least 5-1 to make the playoffs. The NFC is loaded. If the playoffs started today, there would be two 6-4 teams outside of the playoffs (either Tampa Bay, Seattle, or Minnesota). The Saints are only in [...]
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6) The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last [...]
Last week: 20 (+2) Record: 4-5 They’re the least likely of the three 2011 playoff teams who are currently 4-5 to go 1-6 and be this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but I guess we can’t rule them out. They probably won’t be that team, however. That being [...]
Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5) The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, [...]
Last week: 22 (+2) Record: 3-5 The Saints held the Eagles to 13 points, but I still have no confidence in this defense. They surrendered 400 yards for the 8th straight game, an NFL record to start a season, but the Eagles’ dumb mistakes forced them to settle for 13 points. This was the 9th [...]
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5) Andy Reid’s perfect 13-0 career record off the bye is gone. The Eagles are 3-4 and the sky is falling in Philadelphia. This line has shifted 1 point since last week. That might not seem like a whole lot, but a shift from -2 to -3 is [...]
Last week: 19 (-3) Record: 2-5 I guess beating the Broncos is a lot harder than beating the Chargers and Buccaneers for a still overrated Saints team (heavy public action on New Orleans +6 last week). The rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential and 27th in rate of sustaining drives differential, [...]
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3) Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again. He struggled, by his standards, in his first few games out of the gate, but you had to figure that eventually he’d get it together, even without Sean Payton, because he’s just too talented. In his last 3 games, he’s [...]
Last week: 19 (+7) Record: 2-4 The Saints are no longer the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but they’re still not a playoff team or anything like that. Only one team has ever made the playoffs after starting 0-4. Drew Brees has [...]
New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) The Saints got their first win 2 weeks ago at home on Sunday Night Football over the Chargers, but their problems are far from solved. They still have a horrific defense, which is a contributing factor to them ranking 26th in the league in yards per [...]
Last week: 24 (-2) Record: 1-4 On bye.
Last week: 26 (+2) Record: 1-4 It was great for Drew Brees to get the win and break Johnny Unitas’ record at home on Sunday Night against his old team with Head Coach Sean Payton watching. This team is off the snide and out of the 1 win teams in the NFL, I’d give them [...]