Sep 252014

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since [...]

Aug 172014

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans) Since joining the Saints in 2006 and uniting with Sean Payton, he’s completed 67.3% of his passes for an average of 7.76 YPA, 283 touchdowns and 124 interceptions. He’s going into his age 35 season, but he’s shown no signs of decline. Last season, he completed 68.6% of his passes [...]

Jan 092014

New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home dominance and the Saints’ road struggles. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 39-18 ATS at home, including 23-10 ATS as home favorites, and 12-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, [...]

Jan 022014

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) At first glance, this line, which favors Philadelphia by 2.5 points, seems off. The Saints had a fantastic regular season on the whole, moving the chains at a 76.98% rate, as opposed to 68.85% for their opponents, a differential of 8.13% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. [...]

Nov 302013

Last week: 3 (+0) Record: 9-2 Like Denver/New England could have been AFC Championship part 1 last week, Seattle/New Orleans could be NFC Championship part 1 this week. There are several reasons why. Of course, these are currently the two best teams in the NFC record wise, but both teams are also dominant at home. [...]

Nov 272013

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1) There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, [...]

Nov 152013

Last week: 3 (+0) Record: 7-2 After the Saints’ absolute trouncing of the Cowboys, in which they won by 32, despite muffing a punt, missing a field goal, and not recovering an opponent’s onside kick, they now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% [...]

Nov 132013

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2) It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The [...]