Dec 172016

San Francisco 49ers (1-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

Since beating the lowly Rams by 28 on Monday Night Football back in week 1, the 49ers have lost 12 straight games, by an average of 14.17 points per game. This line is very high at 13.5, but not when you consider that the 49ers have been blown out by pretty much every team that has played them and that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league. Six of San Francisco’s 12 losses came by two touchdowns or more, enough to cover this line, so I don’t see why the Falcons couldn’t give the 49ers their 7th such loss. Atlanta ranks 3rd in the NFL in point differential, behind only New England and Dallas, and 4th in first down rate differential. In a year with so few top tier teams, the Falcons are quietly closer to elite than most realize. I couldn’t bet money on the Falcons at 13.5 without injured Julio Jones, but this should be a big Atlanta win even without him.

Atlanta Falcons 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -13.5

Confidence: Low

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