Dec 042015

San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have been half passable at home, going 3-3 (4-2 ATS), including victories over winning opponents in the Falcons and Vikings, they’ve been horrendous on the road, losing all 5 games (1-4 ATS) by an average of 21.0 points per game. Their rate of moving the chains differential is -17.18% on the road, a truly awful showing, and really bad news considering they have a road game this week.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve also been a lot better offensively when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.16% rate in the 9 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Not only is Cutler healthy, but so are running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, huge parts of their offense. This will be just their 5th game having all three of them healthy this season. Given that, they shouldn’t have much of a problem winning by a touchdown or more at home against the 49ers.

Chicago Bears 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Medium

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