Sep 132013
 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

I feel like I talk about the Seahawks’ home/road disparity every week. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. They are 34-15 ATS at home in that span. Last week, they had a very impressive win in Carolina. It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET.

It’s very possible they’ve carried over their strong finish to last season, in which they were better both home and away, finishing 7-1 in the regular season, including road wins in Chicago and a road blowout win in Buffalo. If that’s true, they’re going to be near impossible to beat at home, even for San Francisco. Last year at home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9), beating 4 eventual playoff teams. During their 7-1 stretch last season, they had wins of 28-7, 58-0, 50-17, and 42-13 at home, the latter of which was actually against San Francisco.

The big reason for their improvement in their past 11 games, including last year’s playoffs, has been the play of Russell Wilson, who shook off a slow start to his rookie season and now is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In his last 11 games, including playoffs, he’s completed 187 of 278 (67.3%) for 2544 yards (9.2 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Because of the Seahawks’ home dominance, this line should be at least -6, which would suggest that these two teams are even (which is being conservative if Seattle is really as good as they’ve looked in their last 11 games), but that Seattle has an absurd home field advantage that’s worth at least 6 points, which historical and recent data suggests is the case. Instead, the line is at -2.5. I’m not betting against Seattle at home, especially during a week in which they are going to attempt to set the World Record for loudest stadium. This is actually my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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