Yesterday, I went against the convention and went opposed to the Seahawks trading a 1st rounder for Percy Harvin. I felt that a 1st round pick was too much to give up for him for a one year rental and that he wouldn’t be worth the type of money he was expecting on any potential [...]
Trade for Seattle: I’m going to go away from convention for this one. I don’t like this move. Percy Harvin has very good upside. We’re talking about someone who, over the past 2 years, has 1652 receiving yards on 651 routes run, which is among the most efficient in the NFL. And yes, he was [...]
When the Seahawks’ took Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, it wasn’t really criticized. That seemed to be a fitting range for him. However, then it was reported that GM John Schneider compared him to Drew Brees and “had to have him” because he felt he was one of the top-3 players he scouted in [...]
Note: I normally don’t do picks this early, but Chris Clemons is expected to be out with a torn ACL. Once news of that is confirmed, this line will go up from -2.5. I like the Falcons either way, but I like them a lot more at -2.5 than -4.5, so I’m going to get [...]
For analysis on Seattle click here For analysis on Washington click here Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, [...]
If the Seahawks had home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’d be the Super Bowl favorites by far. They went 8-0 at home this season, beating three highly seeded playoff teams, the 49ers, Packers, and the Patriots. Those 8 wins came by an average of 18.5 points per game. And unlike past seasons, they aren’t [...]
St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 47-20 ATS since 2005, including 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites and 16-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS [...]
Last week: 6 (-1) Record: 10-5 Net points per drive: 0.90 (2nd) DVOA: 41.1% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 51.5% (1st) Studs QB Russell Wilson: 15 of 21 for 171 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 drops, 2 throw aways, 129.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 27 drop backs (4 scrambles, 1 sack, 3 of [...]
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 46-20 ATS since 2005, including 16-8 ATS as home dogs. They’ve already knocked off the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots as home dogs this season, en [...]
Last week: 6 (+0) Record: 9-5 Net points per drive: 0.77 (3rd) DVOA: 38.5% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 44.8% (2nd) Seattle is in an interesting spot as well. Like Green Bay, I’m torn on them, whereas the 5 teams ahead of them on this list I’m less torn on. Seattle might be playing better than anyone [...]
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8) The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are [...]
Last week: 10 (+4) Record: 8-5 Net points per drive: 0.61 (5th) DVOA: 38.8% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 43.1% (2nd) The Seahawks will control their own destiny to the #2 seed if the 49ers lose in New England this weekend and the Packers lose 1 more game. That’s very possible and if that happens, they’ll just [...]
Arizona Cardinals (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5) The Seahawks were able to get a rare road win in Chicago last week after face planting in Miami the week before thanks to the road dogs after a road loss trend. This week, it could potentially hurt their ability to win at home because the Cardinals are [...]
Last week: 13 (+3) Record: 7-5 Net points per drive: 0.31 (10th) DVOA: 31.9% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 35.6% (3rd) Studs QB Russell Wilson: 23 of 37 for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns, 4 throw aways, 1 drop, 97.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 44 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 5 of 16, [...]
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3) The Seahawks were 6-4 coming out of their bye last week and looked like they were in prime position to take one of the NFC’s two Wild Card spots. However, they lost on the road to the Dolphins and now all of a sudden, the sky is falling [...]
Last week: 11 (-2) Record: 6-5 Net points per drive: 0.29 (11th) DVOA: 30.7% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 32.1% (4th) Tier 4: Young teams that could make the playoffs, but won’t do much once they get there Studs QB Russell Wilson: 21 of 27 for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 109.9 adjusted QB [...]
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6) As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional [...]
Last week: 10 (-1) Record: 6-4 On bye.
Last week: 10 (+1) Record: 6-4 Remember two weeks ago when everyone thought the sky was falling for them when they were 4-4 after losing to Detroit. And two weeks before that everyone thought they were great when they were 4-2 and coming off a win against New England. Well, now they’re 6-4 and everyone [...]
New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4) I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed [...]
Last week: 10 (+4) Record: 5-4 If history is any indication, the Seahawks are more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the NFC right now. Every year, 5 new playoff teams make the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, dating back 17 straight years. I use this in [...]
Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) I think I preface every single one of my picks on Seattle’s game by saying I love picking their games because of their huge home/road disparity. Dating back to 2007, they are 30-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road. They’ve lost their last two after [...]
Last week: 14 (-0) Record: 4-4 No the sky is not falling with this team. They just went on the road for 2 games. Everything will be fine this week when the play the Vikings back in Seattle, where they play 5 of their final 8 games. They’ll still be right in the NFC playoff [...]
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4) I feel like I say this about the Seahawks every week when I pick their game, but I love picking their games because they have such a big home/road disparity. On the road, they are 16-29 ATS since 2007, as opposed to 30-14 ATS at home. As dogs, [...]
Last week: 10 (-4) Record: 4-3 I’m dropping Seattle from the playoffs in favor of Philadelphia this week, even though Philadelphia didn’t play. Seattle didn’t look particularly bad against San Francisco or anything, but I think Philadelphia is going to edge them out for that final NFC spot and I just changed my mind. Watching [...]