Nov 082013

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)

On paper, this line might be a little bit too high. The Colts are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 7, instead of 9.5. That being said, that doesn’t take into account that the Rams have lost Sam Bradford for the season.

Kellen Clemens has taken over and has completed 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The supporting cast around him has stepped up and the Rams have only lost by a combined 12 points in their last 2 games, decent playing a top level Seattle team and a decent Tennessee team. However, this week they go on the road, which is a different story. This line might even too small.

Indianapolis could be distracted though. They have a big game against the Titans in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. It’s tough to pick a side though. This line shifted from 12 to 9.5 in the past week for no real reason. I think I’ll just take the Colts as long as the line is lower than 10 points. I’m not confident though.

Indianapolis Colts 23 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Confidence: None

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