Nov 232016

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as home underdogs. I underestimated […]

Nov 122016

Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) The Cowboys enter this game with the best record in the NFC at 7-1 and rank 2nd in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule thus far, as they rank dead last in strength of schedule, in terms of total opponents’ records, […]

Oct 222016

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) The Patriots really lucked out by getting the Steelers at a time in which they’re incredibly banged up. The biggest injury is the one that has Ben Roethlisberger out for at least this week and likely several weeks. Instead, backup Landry Jones will start in his absence. […]

Oct 012016

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) The Steelers lost last week in Philadelphia 34-3, their biggest loss since 1989. It was also just the 15th time since 2003 that a favorite lost by 31 points or more. Obviously, the Steelers should not have been 4 point road favorites in Philadelphia, but that’s more […]

Sep 242016

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) The Eagles were at the top of my underrated teams list coming into the season, with a pre-season over/under of just 6.5 wins. Obviously the quarterback situation complicated matters, especially with Sam Bradford getting traded a week before the season started and rookie Carson Wentz being the week […]

Sep 042016

Quarterback There were some pretty impressive quarterback performances in 2015, with guys like Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson all posting insane numbers, and Ben Roethlisberger was just as good as any of them, finishing 3rd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Roethlisberger threw 16 interceptions, but other than that put up […]

Jan 162016

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Pittsburgh entered the post-season as a trendy sleeper pick to go all the way, thanks to a high flying offense led by arguably the best quarterback/pass catcher duo in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. They finished 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and […]

Jan 092016

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) This is the game that I have the least strong opinion on. The Bengals rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Steelers rank 9th, but the Steelers have been far better offensively in the 12 games where Ben Roethlisberger has led […]

Jan 022016

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12) The Steelers lost last week as huge road favorites in Baltimore, but they get a 2nd chance this week and I like their chances of bouncing back this week as 11 point favorites in Cleveland. The Browns rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the […]

Dec 252015

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-10) The Steelers are in a great spot here. While the Ravens head to Cincinnati to play the Ravens next week, the Steelers go to Cleveland to face the Browns, a far easier opponent. The early lines have the Ravens as 10 point underdogs next week, while the Steelers […]

Dec 192015

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though […]

Dec 122015

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) The Steelers had a big week last week. Not only did they big win, 45-10, over a competent Indianapolis team, but the Seattle Seahawks won big (38-7) on the road in Minnesota, against a solid Vikings team, so the Steelers’ loss the week before to the Seahawks looks […]

Dec 042015

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at […]

Nov 272015

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5) The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points here at home, where they are 21-4 straight up (outscoring opponents by an average of 11.38 points per game) in their last 25 games, since the start of the 2013 season. Over those 25 games, they were favored by fewer than […]

Nov 142015

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye next week. Landry Jones would […]

Nov 072015

Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the […]

Oct 312015

Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) The Steelers get a huge boost this week, getting Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, and it comes at a perfect time, with the undefeated Bengals coming to town. The Steelers moved the chains at an 81.25% rate in the first 2 games of the season, before Roethlisberger went […]

Oct 242015

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) Ben Roethlisberger has missed the last 3 games with injury, but he practiced some this week and has travelled to Kansas City for this game. He’s not expected to play, but the possibility that he is able to go is worth thinking about when taking a side […]

Oct 172015

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) The Steelers’ defense has been alright this year, a noticeable improvement over last season, but their offense hasn’t nearly as good. Last year, they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, but barely had anyone miss any time. They haven’t been as fortunate this season. They get […]