Nov 222012
 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend.

The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards per play differential. No one else is worse than -0.9. They are -15.2% in rate of sustaining drives differential. No one else is worse than -9.5%. The Titans are the -9.5% team, and they are coming off a fluky win (teams that score 28 or more points as dogs despite 300 or fewer yards go 43-64 ATS in their next game) but they still deserve to be road favorites. The Jaguars don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone.

Chad Henne is now the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. He looked great against Houston, certainly better Blaine Gabbert ever was, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s notorious for being inconsistent. This is still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I’m not worried too much about him as an “X-factor” or anything like that.

The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot coming off that near win against the Texans last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. It’s going to be very, very tough for this crappy 1-9 team to get up after losing the biggest game of their season against a huge division rival and the best team in the NFL record wise. Furthermore, teams are 5-15 ATS since 2002 off a divisional overtime loss as dogs.

The Titans should be able to win this one pretty easily so it’s a significant play on the road favorite. That 22-3 ATS trend is hard to ignore, especially in conjunction with an 18-46 ATS trend and a 5-15 ATS trend. I also really like that this isn’t a huge public lean on Tennessee because the odds makers do need to make back some money after a rough 3 week stretch. I just wish we had field goal protection.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 20 JAX 4

Final update: This is the biggest sharps lean of the week and I’m glad it’s on one of my 4-unit co-picks of the week. The LV Hilton spread is Tennessee -3 and if I had that, I’d put 5 units on it and make it a true pick of the week, but I have it at -3.5, so it’s 4.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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