Apr 132016
 

The line between what the top-tier quarterbacks and the mid-tier quarterbacks make has been significantly blurred in the past few years, as the top-21 quarterbacks in terms of average annual salary all make between 16 million and 22 million annually. This makes sense. With the salary cap growing significantly in recent years and showing no […]

Dec 282015
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the Texans because it would come […]

Dec 262015
 

Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11) The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends. Divisional home favorites are 22-58 […]

Dec 202015
 

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost […]

Oct 312015
 

Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5) The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the […]

Oct 032015
 

Houston Texans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0) I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league on paper going into the season, but they’ve started 3-0. What’s gone differently? Well, the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t just been great, it’s been record breaking, as Jones has caught 34 […]

Sep 262015
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Houston Texans (0-2) Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. For example, the Buccaneers were 8.5 point underdogs in this game in the early line last week, but now they’re only getting 6.5 points, as a result of an upset […]

Mar 162015
 

The Patriots release Vince Wilfork earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. Wilfork graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, including 6th against the run, which is his specialty. He was released because he simply wasn’t worth his 8.5 million dollar salary, going into his age […]