Oct 252014
 

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5) The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends [...]

Oct 072014
 

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2) The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off [...]

Oct 012014
 

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new [...]

Sep 202014
 

Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2) The Texans are one of three 2-0 teams that I think are fraudulent, along with the Bills and the Cardinals. The Bills are 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers and then won here against the Giants. The Texans, meanwhile, [...]

Sep 062014
 

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) Both of these teams are going to be better than they were last season. These two teams finished worst and 2nd worst respectively last season, after both made the playoffs the previous season. The Texans went from 12 wins to 2 wins in 2013 and the Redskins went [...]

Aug 172014
 

RB Arian Foster (Houston) Foster was off to a strong start to last season, rushing for 542 yards and a touchdown on 121 carries, an average of 4.48 YPC. He finished 23rd among eligible running backs last season despite playing just 334 snaps, before going down with injury. Foster was breaking down before the injury though, [...]

Mar 232014
 

After pawning Matt Schaub’s fat contract off on the Raiders and somehow getting a draft pick out of it, the Texans were left without a veteran quarterback to compete with a quarterback they presumably will draft in May’s 2014 NFL Draft. Neither Case Keenum nor TJ Yates were viable options. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick won’t [...]

Dec 252013
 

Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9) Firing Gary Kubiak and replacing him with Wade Phillips didn’t seem to fix anything. They’ve lost their last two games by margins of 22 and 24 points, despite losing 8 of their previous 11 games by a touchdown or less. Sure they were facing tough teams in the [...]

Dec 192013
 

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12) This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS [...]

Nov 302013
 

Last week: 28 (-2) Record: 2-9 The Texans somehow dropped back-to-back home games to the Raiders and Jaguars, but I’d still argue they are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. However, it [...]

Nov 152013
 

Last week: 21 (-1) Record: 2-7 Despite their 2-7 record, the Texans actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They probably aren’t as good as that (Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA), but they’ve just been killed [...]