Oct 082016

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0) The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover […]

Sep 222016

Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0) Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for […]

Sep 042016

Quarterback The Texans have gone 18-14 over the past 2 seasons, since ex-Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien took over as head coach of a previously 2-14 team. They’ve done that despite remarkably playing 7 different quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. Their offense wasn’t […]

Dec 282015

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the Texans because it would come […]

Dec 262015

Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11) The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends. Divisional home favorites are 22-58 […]

Dec 202015

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost […]

Oct 312015

Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5) The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the […]

Oct 032015

Houston Texans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0) I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league on paper going into the season, but they’ve started 3-0. What’s gone differently? Well, the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t just been great, it’s been record breaking, as Jones has caught 34 […]

Sep 262015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Houston Texans (0-2) Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. For example, the Buccaneers were 8.5 point underdogs in this game in the early line last week, but now they’re only getting 6.5 points, as a result of an upset […]