Mar 162015
 

The Patriots release Vince Wilfork earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. Wilfork graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, including 6th against the run, which is his specialty. He was released because he simply wasn’t worth his 8.5 million dollar salary, going into his age [...]

Dec 232014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes [...]

Dec 172014
 

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7) This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks just 19th in the NFL [...]

Dec 062014
 

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where [...]

Nov 192014
 

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5) I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public [...]

Nov 162014
 

Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3) This is a tough one because I don’t really have any significant trends for either side. The Browns are the better team and we’re probably getting some line value with them as mere 3.5 point favorites, especially with Arian Foster out. The Browns rank 15th, moving the chains [...]

Nov 012014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4) This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like [...]

Oct 252014
 

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5) The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends [...]

Oct 072014
 

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2) The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off [...]

Oct 012014
 

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new [...]

Sep 202014
 

Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2) The Texans are one of three 2-0 teams that I think are fraudulent, along with the Bills and the Cardinals. The Bills are 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers and then won here against the Giants. The Texans, meanwhile, [...]

Sep 062014
 

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) Both of these teams are going to be better than they were last season. These two teams finished worst and 2nd worst respectively last season, after both made the playoffs the previous season. The Texans went from 12 wins to 2 wins in 2013 and the Redskins went [...]