Nov 262016

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank 7th in first down rate […]

Oct 082016

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0) The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover […]

Sep 222016

Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0) Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for […]

Sep 042016

Quarterback The Texans have gone 18-14 over the past 2 seasons, since ex-Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien took over as head coach of a previously 2-14 team. They’ve done that despite remarkably playing 7 different quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. Their offense wasn’t […]

Dec 282015

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the Texans because it would come […]

Dec 262015

Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11) The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends. Divisional home favorites are 22-58 […]

Dec 202015

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost […]

Oct 312015

Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5) The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the […]