Nov 212015

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, and healthier than they’ve been all season, while Carolina is missing left guard Andrew Norwell and cornerback Charles Tillman. On top of that, the Panthers are in a terrible spot, going to Dallas in four days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game.

Going off of that, because Tony Romo is now back for Dallas, the early line is even, meaning the Panthers could easily end up being underdogs. That would put the Panthers in another bad spot because favorites are just 95-168 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Redskins host the Giants next week). Even if the Panthers don’t end up being underdogs, the logic still holds; The Panthers are in a bad spot with a tough road game coming up in 4 days. It’s not enough to take the Redskins with much confidence, but they should be the right side, as long as this line is a touchdown or higher.

Carolina Panthers 16 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

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