Oct 262013
 

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have a bye coming up so they can be totally focused here as 12.5 point favorites. Since 2002, home favorites of 7 or more are 26-9 ATS before a mid-season bye. It makes sense. Teams have no distractions and can take care of business.

However, I question if the line should be this high. This is one of the biggest NFL Lines of the week. The Broncos are playing incredible football, even with the loss, moving the chains at an 84% rate offensively and allowing opponents to do so at a league average 73% average. However, the Redskins are better than their record as well, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be closer to 9 or 10.

Peyton Manning should shred up a Washington defense that has lost Brandon Meriweather again, but Robert Griffin played his best game of the season last week and has been running better since the bye. He might not be fully back until next season, but he’s capable of putting up some points against an unspectacular stop unit and he’s definitely capable of a backdoor garbage time cover.

The Redskins are also in a good spot as they have no real upcoming distractions as they host San Diego next week, a game in which they will be favored. 10+ point underdogs are 42-24 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites and non-divisional road underdogs are 96-61 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites. At the end of the day, I’m taking Denver to win their 6th game of the season by 13 or more. That trend is too powerful and the addition of Von Miller, now in his 2nd game back, could give them a real boost in terms of stopping Robert Griffin. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

Denver Broncos 41 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Denver -12.5

Confidence: Low

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