Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)
Some situational trends say that the Redskins are the right side here. Teams are 35-19 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, on the Eagles side, divisional home dogs are 23-38 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. That being said, I feel like this is too many points for me to feel comfortable, especially with the public all over Washington.
There was no early line last week because of Griffin’s questionable status, so there’s no way to know if this is an overreaction line, but Cincinnati was just -4 in Philadelphia last week. The Bengals have the same record as the Redskins and won the head to head matchup in Cincinnati. I know the Bengals won by 21, but they actually trailed by 3 in the 3rd quarter before a ridiculous 4 turnover in 5 plays stretch by the Eagles, though I guess that’s just what the Eagles do. Again, the Redskins should be the right side, but this is way too many points on the road for me to be comfortable. We might have gotten a little carried away with the Redskins and because of that, the odds makers can boost the spread and know people will still take them, as has been the case.
Using net points per drive, we see that we do have significant line value with the Eagles. The Redskins rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.08, while the Eagles rank 27th at -0.47. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to Philadelphia’s side for home field advantage, you get that Washington should be favored by just 3.5 points. DVOA supports this, but only somewhat as the Redskins and Eagles rank 11th and 27th respectively in DVOA, but 9th and 29th respectively in weighted DVOA. Washington is the pick, but it’s not a big play.
Public lean: Washington (80% range)
Sharps lean: WAS 22 PHI 8
Final thoughts: I guess I can put one more unit on Washington, though this is at -5.5 in the Supercontest. I wouldn’t go over a touchdown.
Washington Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 16
Pick against spread: Washington -6 (-110) 2 units