New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

The Saints are only 3-2, but they’re one of the better teams in the NFC. Their 2 losses came against the Sam Bradford led Vikings and the New England Patriots, in the first 2 weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve defeated the Panthers, Dolphins, and Lions, all by 14 or more points. They finished last season 10th in first down rate differential (with a +9 offensive touchdown differential) and they seem to be even better this season. Their +29 point differential is 6th in the NFL and they’ve only played 5 games.

Drew Brees continues to lead an explosive offense and their defense has been significantly improved this season, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Jordan and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Marshon Lattimore. They still have issues on that side of the ball, but they might be good enough defensively to go on a run in the NFC if the offense continues to play at a high level. The Falcons rode a similar formula to the Super Bowl last season.

This game against the Packers could have been a NFC Championship preview, but Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone last week against the Vikings, putting his season and the Packers’ playoff chances in jeopardy. 2015 5th round pick Brett Hundley will make his first career start this week and he’s obviously a major downgrade at the quarterback position. The line has subsequently moved from GB -6.5 last week on the early line to NO -4 this week, a whopping 10.5 point line movement.

I would have been all over the Saints at +6.5 against a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but I still think there’s line value with New Orleans -4 against the led Hundley Packers, especially since the Packers will be without Morgan Burnett as well. Burnett has been easily the Packers’ best defensive back this season, so the Packers should have a very tough time stopping Brees and company, which is going to make life very tough for Hundley. The Saints, by contrast, are as healthy as they’ve been all season and they should be able to get an easy win here.

New Orleans Saints 28 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4

Confidence: Medium