Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

Basically since the inception of the franchise, the Buccaneers have been consistently among the worst teams in the league, most recently missing the post-season for 13 straight seasons from 2007-2019, the longest post-season drought of any team in the league aside from the Browns over that stretch. The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after the 2002 season, but, even with that season included, they had an all-time winning percentage going into last season that was the worst in the entire NFL.

Last off-season, in need of a quarterback in free agency, the Buccaneers aggressively pursued former Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who had won a record 6 Super Bowls, but was heading into an unprecedented age 43 season and on shaky long-term standing with the only team he had played for throughout the two decades of his career. To the surprise of many, Brady ended up in Tampa Bay on a fully guaranteed 2-year, 50 million deal contract that included a full no trade clause, the right to turn down a franchise tag, complete control over his future, and security through his age 44 season.

In his first season in Tampa Bay, Brady, whose winning percentage of 77.4% over 20 seasons in New England far exceeds that of any quarterback all-time, led the Buccaneers to an 11-5 season that not only snapped their playoff drought, but also culminated in the franchise’s second Super Bowl Championship, giving Brady his seventh, more than any single franchise in NFL history. A perennial loser had turned into a champion overnight and their new quarterback, the winningest of all time, seemed to be the natural pick to get the majority of the credit, and doing so at an age by which almost all NFL quarterbacks are long retired. 

That doesn’t tell the whole story, however. For starters, Brady ending up in Tampa Bay was no accident. The Patriots had won 12 games in 2019, but severely lacked offensive weapons around Brady. They had the league’s best defense, but they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs for the first time in a decade and, in the long-term, the outlook for a veteran heavy defense with numerous key free agents was not overly promising.

Brady couldn’t have foreseen the Patriots also having a league most opt outs for the 2020 season, including key linebacker Dont’a Hightower and key safety Patrick Chung, but the Patriots fell all the way to 23rd in first down rate allowed in 2020 and likely would have seen a big drop off from 2019 even if Hightower and Chung had been available. The Patriots’ offense, which only ranked 21st in first down rate in 2019, continued to have problems, especially because of their lack of offensive weapons, culminating in a 7-9 season for New England in 2020. 

Had they brought Brady back, the Patriots might have won another game or two in 2020, but considering how much their offense underwhelmed in 2019 even with Brady, it’s hard to imagine them going on a deep playoff run even had Brady returned and Brady likely felt there was a good chance that would be the case, which influenced his decision to leave. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, were coming off of just a 7-9 season, but they finished 9th in the NFL in first down rate differential and their losing record was largely the result of a -13 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), primarily due to quarterback Jameis Winston having the first 30+ interception season by a quarterback since 1988. 

Merely by stabilizing the Buccaneers’ turnover margin, Brady likely saw he would be able to take an offense with a lot of talent, most notably two of the top wide receivers in the league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and turn it into one of the more effective in the league, particularly if he could recruit his old friends Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown to join as well. 

The Buccaneers also had a budding young defense that was one of the best in the league in the second half of the 2019 season and a coaching staff led by veteran head coach Bruce Arians and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, two of the better coaches in the league in their respective roles. 

Brady himself played a part, of course, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 7.60 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked quarterback, which is remarkable considering his advanced age, but he’s not quite the quarterback he was in his prime and would not have been able to take this Buccaneers’ team on a long playoff run if he didn’t have a lot of talent around him, which is why the Buccaneers, who were truly a quarterback away from being a contender, were a perfect fit for him as a free agent last off-season. However surprising Brady’s decision to join the Buccaneers was, it made perfect sense given the circumstances, as did their ultimate ascension to Super Bowl Champions.

Now the big question, of course, becomes whether or not the Buccaneers can repeat. At first glance, they would seem to be an obvious candidate to do so after incredibly managing to retain every key player from last year’s team, dipping deep into future cap space to do so in a cap shrunken season, mortgaging their future to maximize a short-term Super Bowl window. Retaining all of those players doesn’t necessarily guarantee they will be as good, which I will get into more throughout this preview, but the other obvious concern is Tom Brady’s age, now in his age 44 season. 

Predictions that Tom Brady will one day see his abilities fall off a cliff have gotten tired at this point as Brady has continued to defy the odds year after year, but the fact that we’re in uncharted territory can’t be ignored. Even though it may seem like we can, we can’t just treat Tom Brady as a perpetual 30-year-old quarterback who will never decline. That’s not to say he will in 2021, but that’s an element of risk with this team that obviously needs to be included in this projection. Any noticeable decline from Brady, who will miss most of the off-season because of knee surgery, significantly hurts this team’s chances of repeating.

The Buccaneers’ don’t seem too concerned about Brady long-term, tacking on another fully guaranteed 25 million dollar for the 2022 season onto his original 2-year deal in a move that also helped the Buccaneers free up cap space to keep other key players, but they do have one eye on the future, using the 64th overall pick at the end of the second round on Florida’s Jeff Trask, who could be the Buccaneers’ quarterback of the future if Brady doesn’t just outlast yet another “quarterback of the future” as he did several times in New England. In the short-term Trask has a good chance to win the backup job even as a rookie because uninspiring journeyman Blaine Gabbert, who has a career 72.3 QB rating in 48 career starts, was their backup all last season. 

That didn’t matter because Brady yet again played all 16 games, now not missing a game due to injury in 12 straight seasons, but injuries are a possibility for all players and, even though he may seem invincible, the possibility that Brady misses some time with injury is one that the Buccaneers need to account for. Trask gives them a better chance of continuing to play at an above average level offensively in the event of a Brady injury that the-tried-and-failed Gabbert. Regardless, the Buccaneers are obviously hoping that scenario doesn’t occur and that Brady continues playing at a level that this team can remain top Super Bowl contenders.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers retained every key player from last season, and that is no small feat. Teams almost never return exactly the same group from one year to the next, let alone Super Bowl Champions, and it’s not as if the Buccaneers didn’t have pending free agents. Going into the off-season, 10 of the 31 players who played at least 200 snaps on either side of the ball for the Buccaneers last season were set to hit free agency. 

On top of that, the Buccaneers didn’t seem to have the financial flexibility to bring back all of their top free agents, let alone every key contributor. However, they got creative with their contract structure and used significant amounts of future cap, and while that will lead to problems for this franchise down the line, it’s the kind of aggressive win now approach that makes sense for a team with a 44-year-old quarterback.

One player the Buccaneers could have let walk this off-season was wide receiver Chris Godwin, not because he wasn’t an important part of this team, but because they already have one highly paid receiver in Mike Evans (82.5 million over 5 years) and could have brought back Antonio Brown as an every down receiver with promising third year wide receiver Scotty Miller taking over as the 3rd receiver. Instead, the Buccaneers tagged Godwin and will bring back arguably the league’s deepest and most talented receiving corps.

Evans and Godwin both topped 1000 yards in 2019 and that likely would have happened again in 2020 had Godwin not missed 4 games with injury, as Evans topped the 1000 yard mark at 70/1006/13, while Godwin finished with 65/840/7 slash line in 12 games. Godwin has only topped 1000 yards once in his 4-year career, but that’s really only because of the games he missed last season and the fact he was kind of buried on the depth chart in the first two seasons of his career prior to 2019. 

Godwin still averaged 1.93 yards per route run in those first two seasons, not far off of the 2.24 average he had in 2019 when he finished with 86/1333/9 and, though that dipped back to 1.94 in 2020, Godwin being at less than 100% for most of the season is likely to blame. He’s also finished in the top-24 among wide receivers on PFF in all 4 seasons in the league, including a pair of seasons in the top-10 and a top overall ranked finish in 2019. Still only going into his age 25 season, he should have several seasons left in his prime and should remain a high level receiver for the foreseeable future.

Evans, meanwhile, has actually topped 1000 yards in all 7 seasons in the league, since being selected 7th overall by the Buccaneers in 2014, and he’s still in his prime as well in his age 28 season. The 109 targets he saw last season were the fewest of his career, after averaging 135 per season over the first six seasons of his career, and I would expect that to be the case again in 2021, as there are just so many weapons in this passing game. 

In fact, with the Buccaneers expected to get a full season out of Antonio Brown after he missed the first 8 games of last season with suspension, both Evans and Godwin could see their usage rates drop even more, after falling from 17.7 targets per game combined in 2019 to 13.8 in 2020. Even if they don’t produce huge numbers though, the Buccaneers clearly have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

Brown was once one of the top, if not the top wide receiver in the league, but he’s had an interesting decline, to say the least. A top-5 wide receiver on PFF in 5 straight seasons with the Steelers from 2013-2017, Brown averaged 2.47 yards per route run over that stretch, but saw that number fall to 1.94 in 2018, worst since his 2012 season, and he finished just 26th at his position overall on PFF. In his age 30 season in that 2018 season, there was reason to be concerned about him long-term on the field, but he showed even more reasons to be concerned off the field, frequently getting into conflicts with his quarterback, head coach, and other teammates, before eventually demanding a trade out of town.

The Steelers eventually obliged, sending him to the Raiders, and, though they had to trade him at a discount because everyone knew he wanted out, the Steelers actually won the trade, getting a third round pick for a player who ultimately never played a regular season game for his new team, in a saga that included Brown missing significant training camp action due to a self inflicted foot injury and then refusing to suit up in protest of the NFL’s new helmet rules and that ended with Brown being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team, voiding his guaranteed money and leading shortly after to his release. 

Brown then made his way to New England but, while he did suit up for the team, his stay with the Patriots was even shorter than his stay with the Raiders, as allegations of improper conduct off-the-field and potential legal trouble led to Brown being released by the Patriots after just one game, not only ending his tenure with the Patriots, but effectively ending his season, as he remained unsigned for the remainder of the season, with more accusations piling up. Going into the 2020 off-season, Brown faced a very uncertain future, having to find a new team in the midst of ongoing legal proceedings and an impending suspension.

Eventually, Brown ended up in arguably the only place that made sense for him, in Tampa Bay with the quarterback who he made a quick bond with in his brief time in New England, with an organization willing to do anything and everything to win and keep their star quarterback healthy. Brown missed the first 8 games of the season with suspension and was only the third receiver with Evans and Godwin already in the fold, but his 2.07 yards per route run average was 19th in the NFL and actually surpassed his last full season in 2018. In total, Brown had a 53/564/6 slash line in 11 games with the Buccaneers, including the post-season, a slash line of 77/820/9 per 16 games that is pretty impressive when you consider his limited playing time behind two dominant wide receivers and his limited targets in a deep receiving corps.

Most importantly, Brown has stayed out of trouble off-the-field since arriving in Tampa Bay last off-season and, after once again finding a cold free agent market, Brown returned on a 1-year, 3.075 million dollar deal this off-season. Brown is still a hard player to depend on, especially as he now heads into his age 33 season and could further decline on the field, but, as long as he can stay on the field, there’s no denying he’s well over-qualified for a #3 receiver role even if he declines. In addition to seeing a significant role in 3 wide receiver sets, Brown also is great insurance in case either Evans or Godwin misses time.

Scotty Miller is set to be the 4th receiver and he too is good insurance, as he would slide into the #3 receiver job if someone ahead of him on the depth chart was injured. A 6th round pick in 2019, Miller saw his snaps increase from 177 as a rookie to 440 last season and also was more productive on a more route basis, going from 1.46 yards per route run to 1.62. Miller wasn’t a high pick and doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he should be a solid player if needed. Justin Watson and Tyler Johnson, 5th round picks in 2018 and 2020 respectively, are also in the mix for reserve roles, but they have been underwhelming on 461 career snaps and 264 career snaps respectively.

The Buccaneers are also incredibly deep and talented at the tight end position, especially with OJ Howard set to return from a torn achilles that cost him all but 132 snaps in 4 games last season. Howard played well in those 4 games, posting a 11/146/2 slash line, 44/584/8 extrapolated over a full 16 game season, which is made more impressive by the fact that he didn’t play every down. In fact, on a per route run basis, Howard ranked 4th in the NFL among tight ends over the first 4 weeks of the season with 2.39 yards per route run.

This isn’t the first time the 2017 1st round pick Howard has shown a lot of potential, as he averaged 2.23 yards per route run and was on a 54/904/8 pace through 10 games in 2018 before that season ended with another injury. In between, Howard had a disappointing 2019 campaign in which he received a below average grade from PFF and managed just a 34/459/1 slash line in 14 games. Howard has never played all 16 games in a season and is coming off of a major injury, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and the potential is obviously there if he can ever put it all together and stay healthy, especially with a quarterback like Brady throwing him the ball. Howard is also a capable blocker and, though he’s unlikely to see a massive workload because of the Buccaneers other tight ends, he has the ability to be an every down player if needed.

Howard’s presence early in the season last season largely made the Buccaneers’ other tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, non-factors in the passing game. Brate barely played at all, totaling just 32 snaps in the 4 games Howard played and catching just 1 pass, while Gronkowski was mostly limited to blocking duties and caught just 9 passes. Howard’s injury opened up more targets for both players, who finished with slash lines of 28/282/2 and 45/623/7 respectively.

Gronkowski definitely wasn’t his prime self last season, but the future Hall of Famer still finished 12th among tight ends on PFF and might not necessarily just go back to a pure blocking role when Howard returns, having shown he can still play after a season away from the game. Perhaps most important from Gronkowski was that he played all 16 games last season for just the second time in his illustrious 10-year career. 

That’s certainly not a guarantee again in 2021 and he’s another year older now as well, but still only in his age 32 season, Gronkowski could have another couple solid seasons left in the tank. Despite his pledge to only ever catch passes from Tom Brady, Gronkowski reportedly considered Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills this off-season, which would have given him more playing time and a return home to upstate New York with a team that is also in contention, but he ultimately decided to stay with the Buccaneers, signing on a 1-year, 8 million dollar deal that was likely more money than the Bills offered.

Cameron Brate’s return is more surprising, as they could have cut him to save 6.5 million in non-guaranteed pay, a significant amount for the release of a third tight end who figures to be little more than an insurance policy as long as Howard and Gronkowski are both healthy. Instead, they truly committed themselves to bringing everyone back and restructured Brate’s deal, guaranteeing some of his pay with a signing bonus that spread his cap hit out over future years and that reduced his expected pay for the 2021 season to 3.1 million.

Brate posted 57/660/8 and 48/591/6 slash lines as a starter in 2016-2017, but he’s seen his playing time fall over the past 3 seasons and hasn’t topped 311 yards or 535 snaps played in any of those three seasons as a situational player. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so his best days are likely behind him and indeed his yards per route run have fallen over the past three seasons, in addition to his playing time, but it’s hard to argue that he’s overqualified for a #3 tight end role. This is as deep and talented of a receiving corps as you’ll find in the NFL.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the Buccaneers returned all of their key players from a year ago, there are a couple spots where they might not be as good in 2021 as they were in 2020. Quarterback is an obvious one, given Brady’s advanced age, but even if he doesn’t fall off, the Buccaneers aren’t guaranteed to be as good in front of him in 2021. As talented as they are on the offensive line, the Buccaneers also benefited from the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league on the offensive line last season and, though they did eventually lose right guard Alex Cappa for the season during their playoff run, the Buccaneers had just 4 regular season starts missed by their five starting offensive linemen in 2020, something that is unlikely to continue into 2021.

Three of those missed starts were by left guard Ali Marpet, who is arguably their best offensive lineman, so at least the Buccaneers can reasonably expect to get more snaps out of a player who is one of the best guards in the league when on the field. A 2nd round pick in 2015, Marpet has been one of the better guards in the league basically since day one, finishing 22nd among guards on PFF as a rookie and then finishing in the top-14 at his position in all 5 seasons since. He’s also played in all 16 games in half of his six career seasons and has missed just 11 total games overall in his career. Still in his prime in his age 28 season and coming off of a career best 3rd ranked finish among guards in 2020, there is no reason to expect any drop off from him in 2021.

As good as Marpet is, it wouldn’t be a surprise if right tackle Tristan Wirfs ended the season as the Buccaneers’ best offensive lineman. A first round pick in 2020, Wirfs proved to be the most important addition that the Buccaneers made last off-season aside from Brady, as Wirfs made all 16 starts and finished as PFF’s 12th ranked offensive tackle on the season. That’s not a guarantee that he’ll play all 16 games or even that he’ll play that well again, as progression of young players isn’t always linear, but either way, Wirfs looks like one of the best young offensive linemen in the league and should be at least an above average starter at the right tackle position for years to come. His addition was a huge boost for a team last off-season that had a hole at right tackle, but otherwise returned their starting offensive line from 2019.

Along with Marpet, left tackle Donovan Smith has been with this group the longest, also going in the 2nd round in 2015. Smith hasn’t developed into nearly the dominant player that Marpet has, but he’s made 94 of a possible 96 starts and has earned an average or better grade from PFF in all 6 seasons, including a career best 34th ranked season among offensive tackles in 2019 and a 38th ranked season in 2020. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he’s been a consistently reliable player at the most important position on the offensive line and that shouldn’t change this season, still in his prime in his age 28 season.


While injuries may be a more of an issue for this group in 2021 than 2020, center Ryan Jensen is the only player whose age should be remotely a concern for this group and even he’s only going into his age 30 season. A free agent acquisition from the Ravens on a 4-year, 42 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago, Jensen’s tenure in Tampa Bay has been up and down, which is not what you want out of a player who is the 5th highest paid center in the league in average annual salary, but that’s not overly surprising from a player who had only had one full season as a starter when the Buccaneers had signed him, a 2017 contract season in which he finished 10th among centers on PFF. Jensen fell to 30th out of 38 eligible centers in his first season in Tampa Bay in 2018, before shooting up to 2nd in 2019, and then falling somewhere around the middle in a 21st ranked 2020 season. He should be expected to have a solid season, but his range of outcomes is larger than your typical solid starter.

Right guard Alex Cappa completes this offensive line, expected to make a full recovery from the injury that ended his season in the playoffs last year. Prior to that, Cappa had made all 16 starts and finished a career best 19th ranked among guards on PFF. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Cappa is still pretty inexperienced with just 29 career starts and only two full seasons as a starter under his belt, but he was solid in 2019 as well (37th) and seemed to take a step forward in 2020. That’s not a guarantee he continues improving or even matches the best season of his career, but he should remain a solid starting guard as long as he can return to form after the injury. 

Joe Haeg, a talented veteran reserve and their top backup offensive lineman last season, is no longer with the team, so the Buccaneers, who don’t have another proven reserve offensive lineman, could be in tough shape at any of their starting five offensive line spots if injuries strike. They used a 3rd round pick on Notre Dame’s Robert Hainsey, but he’s not a guarantee to be ready to contribute if needed as a rookie, while swing tackle Josh Wells has shown himself to be one of the worst offensive tackles in the league when depended on for extended playing time in his career. Injuries are really the only threat though, as this starting five is one of the best in the league on paper, a talented group whose oldest starter is 30 and who will benefit from the continuity of having the same starting five again. 

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back was one position where the Buccaneers seemed like they might try to find an upgrade this off-season, with Leonard Fournette set to hit free agency and other running backs available to replace him with through free agency and the draft, but instead the Buccaneers brought Fournette back on a one-year deal and will continue to use him in tandem with Ronald Jones. Jones, a 2nd round pick in 2018 by the Buccaneers, is heading into the final year of his rookie deal, so without either signed beyond this season, I was expecting the Buccaneers to at least add another running back through the draft, particularly one who could be more efficient in the passing game, with Jones and Fournette averaging a mere 4.47 yards per target through the air last season.

The Buccaneers decision not to draft a running back likely says something about 2020 3rd round pick Keshawn Vaughn, who theoretically has the upside to be the passing down back this offense needs. Vaughn was seen as a sleeper in this backfield when he was drafted because of the pass catching ability he flashed at the collegiate level, but he ultimately ended up with just 31 touches and 99 snaps played in a disappointing rookie season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward and contribute in his second season in the league, but, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he’s unlikely to see more than a few carries per game, even if he can earn a passing down role.

Jones led the team in carries, actually by a pretty wide margin with 192 carries to Fournette’s 97, and he was the more effective back as well, averaging 5.09 yards per carry to Fournette’s 3.78. That changed in the post-season though, in part due to Jones dealing with an injury that caused him to miss the Buccaneers’ first playoff game. Even when Jones returned, Fournette had 45 carries to Jones’ 35 carries in the final 3 playoff games and he was more effective as well, with a post-season averaging of 4.69 YPC to Jones’ 3.97. It’s unclear whether that will continue into 2021 or whether Jones will revert to the lead back when healthy. 

Fournette has shown promise before, only to continue being wildly inconsistent. The 4th overall pick of the 2017 NFL draft by the Jaguars, Fournette topped 1000 yards in two of his first three seasons in the league, but largely did so on volume rather than effectiveness, rushing for 3.95 YPC with 17 touchdowns on 666 carries, and after multiple problems with the coaching staff, Fournette was let go ahead of the final year of his rookie deal last off-season, leading to him signing a cheap one-year deal with the Buccaneers in free agency. He’s never been an effective pass catcher either, with a career average of 5.62 yards per target. He’s only in his age 26 season, but running backs age differently and I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly have a mid-career breakout.

Jones has also been ineffective as a pass catcher throughout his career, averaging 5.58 yards per target, but he’s shown a lot of talent as a runner over the past two seasons as a starter, averaging 4.21 YPC on 172 carries in 2019 and then jumped up to 5.09 YPC on 192 carries on a better offense in 2020, after hardly playing as a rookie. Still only in his age 24 season with minimal injury history, I would expect him to be about the same in 2021, being the more effective part of a tandem with Fournette, however the split ends up being.

Regardless of the early down split, it seems highly likely that neither back will see the passing game usage they saw last season, when they struggled across a combined 89 targets. Not only could Keshawn Vaughn emerge in a passing down role, but the Buccaneers also signed veteran Giovani Bernard in free agency. Once an effective change of pace runner as well, Bernard has seen his averaged plummet to 3.42 YPC on 233 carries over the past three seasons and, while the lack of talent around him on the Bengals offense was part of the problem, he’s unlikely to improve significantly, now in his age 30 season. 

However, Bernard still added 47 catches last season and has caught an average of 43 catches per season as the Bengals’ primary passing down back. He’s unlikely to see more than a few carries per game and he’s not guaranteed a roster spot with only 850K guaranteed on his contract and three other backs who all seem like roster locks, but if he does make the roster, I would expect him to be utilized as a veteran passing down back and a reliable third down option for Tom Brady. This is a solid, if unspectacular group of running backs.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While wide receiver Chris Godwin was probably their most talented free agent, edge defender Shaq Barrett might have been their most important free agent because they don’t have the same depth at the position as they do in the receiving corps. He also couldn’t have been kept as easily with the franchise tag because he had already been tagged last off-season and played the 2020 season on the 15.828 million dollar franchise tag, a number that would have increased by 20% with a subsequent tagging.

Originally an undrafted free agent by the Broncos in 2014, Barrett flashed a lot of potential early in his career as a reserve with the Broncos, never topping 664 snaps in a season and managing just 14 sacks, but adding 22 hits and a 12.2% pressure rate, while playing at a high level against the run. However, he was forced to settle for a one-year, 4 million dollar deal with the Buccaneers two off-seasons ago, which proved to be the steal of the off-season, with Barrett breaking out with a league leading 19.5 sacks, to go with 18 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate in an every down role for the first time in his career. 

Understandably skeptical, the Buccaneers tagged Barrett last off-season instead of extending him long-term, but Barrett proved himself again in 2020. His sack total fell to 8, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t an effective pass rusher, adding 8 hits and a 15.7% pressure rate, and overall he finished as PFF’s 30th ranked edge defender on the season. With concerns about Barrett possibly being a one-year wonder quelled, the Buccaneers committed to their talented edge defender with a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension this off-season. 

Barrett will continue starting opposite Jason Pierre-Paul, who is also heading into a contract year. Pierre-Paul is still performing well, but he seems a lot less likely than Barrett to get a long-term deal. Not only is he not quite as important of a player, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and the Buccaneers seemed to signal that he’s not in their long-term plans by using their first round pick in April’s draft on Washington edge defender Joe Tryon.

Pierre-Paul led the team with 9.5 sacks last season, but his peripheral pass rush numbers (5 sacks, 8.4% pressure rate) aren’t as impressive. He was one of the better edge defenders in the league in his prime, but he hasn’t finished higher than 40th among edge defenders on PFF since 2016, so his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point in his career. He’s continued to earn middling grades from PFF and he could continue doing that in 2021, but he is a declining player regardless.

Tryon might not see a ton of action as a rookie, but his addition could lead to the Buccaneers spelling their starters more often, after Barrett averaged 54.9 snaps per game and Pierre-Paul averaged 58.9 snaps per game last season. Pierre-Paul, in particular, would seem to be at risk of having his snaps decreased, given that he’s the less effective of the two. Less playing time could allow the veteran to be fresher and more effective on a per snap basis though. Regardless of how much he plays, Tryon should be an upgrade on the underwhelming Anthony Nelson, who was their only significant reserve last season, seeing just 324 snaps. With Barrett being re-signed and Tryon being added in the draft, this is a strong group that is even stronger than last season.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Buccaneers had a trio of contributors at the interior defender position set to hit the open market in Ndamukong Suh, Steve McLendon, and Rakeem Nunes-Roches, but all three were retained, and the Buccaneers will also get Vita Vea back from injury after he was limited to 224 snaps in 5 games last season, giving them a deep group at this position group as well. Vea actually returned for the NFC Championship and Super Bowl and played 63 snaps across the two games, but he wasn’t 100%. Prior to the injury, Vea seemed on his way to a dominant Pro-Bowl caliber season, as he was PFF’s #2 ranked interior defender at the time he went down. 

A first round pick in 2018 and a rare athlete at 6-4 347, Vea totaled 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 11.6% pressure rate in those 5 games, and also expectedly dominated against the run as well. In 2019, he played all 16 games and finished as PFF’s 15th ranked interior defender, and he showed a lot of promise as a rookie as well. He earned PFF’s 11th highest grade among interior defenders from week 12 on, after dealing with an injury early in the season, and, over that 6-game stretch to end the season, he played 46.8 snaps per game while totaling 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 12.8% pressure rate and playing at a high level against the run. Injuries have been a concern for him in his career, but, only in his age 26 season, he still has a lot of football left ahead of him and it’s obvious he has the potential to be one of the top interior defenders in the league.

Ndamukong Suh was the most significant of the trio that the Buccaneers returned, re-signing on a one-year, 9 million dollar deal, after playing 788 snaps last season to lead the position group for the Buccaneers. Suh was one of the best at his position in his prime, but he’s seen his effectiveness steadily drop off the past four seasons, from a 14th ranked season among interior defenders on PFF in 2017, to 27th in 2018, 48th in 2019, and a career worst 71st last season, as he was largely a snap eater more than an impact player across his playing time last season. With Vea returning and Suh now going into his age 34 season, Suh could easily see his snaps reduced. I would still expect him to start and finish 2nd in this group in snaps played, but he’s clearly not the player he once was and the Buccaneers have enough depth and talent that Suh doesn’t need to play 40-50 snaps per game again.

William Gholston figures to be the third starter on this 3-man defensive line in base packages, after finishing 2nd in the position group with 606 snaps played last season, but he too could see his role scaled back by Vea’s return. Gholston’s 2020 snap total was the 2nd highest of his 8-year career and, now going into his age 30 season, having never earned more than a middling grade from PFF, he would probably be better in a smaller role. 

Gholston was one of the worst defensive linemen in the league as recently as 2018, but he’s found a good fit over the past two seasons in Todd Bowles scheme, especially impressing as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 24 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate overall in 32 games. He figures to continue to see a significant role on passing downs, as well as early downs, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline a little as he enters his 30s.

Steve McLendon should also see a significant role on early downs in base packages, as that is his area of expertise. McLendon is going into his age 35 season and saw his effectiveness fall off significantly last season, split across the Jets and then the Buccaneers after a mid-season trade, but he still earned an above average grade against the run on 443 regular season snaps. He’s never played more than 488 snaps in a season though and is a pass rush liability with a career 5.2% pressure rate, including no sacks or hits and a 3.5% pressure rate last season, so he is not a candidate to play in sub packages, but he could still be a useful contributor on early downs.

Rakeem Nunez-Roches also doesn’t get much pass rush, with a career 4.2% pressure rate, but the difference is, he hasn’t played well against the run either, never earning more than a middling grade from PFF and finishing 123rd out of 138 eligible interior defenders on 483 snaps last season, which also happened to be in career high in snaps. He was brought back almost entirely for insurance and depth purposes, so I wouldn’t expect more than a dozen snaps out of him unless injuries strike. The Buccaneers have a few players in this group who are getting up there in age, but they have solid depth at the position overall and Vita Vea leads the position group as one of the better defensive tackles in the league in the prime of his career.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Linebacker Lavonte David was also a key free agent retention, as he was one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season, finishing 5th on PFF among off ball linebackers, and, beyond that, he’s been one of the Buccaneers’ best players and one of the best off ball linebackers in the league for years. Originally a 2nd round selection by the Buccaneers in 2012, He’s been a little inconsistent throughout his 9-year career, but he’s earned at least an average grade from PFF in every season in the league, including 6 finishes in the top-18 among off ball linebackers and 4 finishes in the top-6, especially excelling in pass coverage. His age is a concern, now heading into his age 31 season, but he didn’t show any signs of decline in 2020 and, even if he starts to decline in 2021, I would still expect an above average season from him.

Devin White will continue starting next to David, now going into his third season in the league since being drafted 5th overall by the Buccaneers in 2019. With David excelling in coverage, that freed up White to blitz more than your average off ball linebackers and White excelled as a blitzer, totaling 9 sacks, 8 hits, and 14 hurries on just 109 blitzes, a ridiculous 28.4% pressure rate. White also finished with 140 total tackles, 5th in the NFL, but his traditional stats are a little misleading, as he also missed 16 tackles, 4th most among off ball linebackers, and allowed a position leading 86 receptions on just 98 targets. A similar thing happened as a rookie in 2019, when he missed 13 tackles in 13 games and allowed 40 of 49 completion. He has the tools to develop into one of the better all-around off ball linebackers in the league, but he’s a little overrated if you only look at his sack and tackle totals.

The Buccaneers also retained veteran free agent Kevin Minter this off-season, keeping a player who plays at a high level on special teams and provides valuable insurance at the inside linebacker position. Minter made 37 starts with the Cardinals from 2014-2016, but he was underwhelming in his extended action and he’s been limited to just 586 total defensive snaps as a reserve in 4 seasons since, including just 93 snaps last season. Now going into his age 31 season, his days of being a starting caliber player are well behind him, but you could do worse in a top reserve. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him capably hold down the fort for a few games if needed. He gives a good position group needed insurance.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Like the rest of the defense, the Buccaneers should get good play from their secondary, who retained their only significant free agent Ross Cockrell. Cockrell only played 238 snaps last season, but he earned an above average grade from PFF for his play and made enough of an impression on the Buccaneers to be brought back with everyone else, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play a more significant role in 2021. Cockrell was a solid starter from 2015-2017 (32 starts) before a badly broken leg cost him all of 2018 and likely led to a down 2019 season in which he finished 94th among 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF. 

Cockrell’s down 2019 season led to him having to settle for a practice squad role with the Buccaneers last off-season, but he was called up in the second half of the season and showed his pre-injury form in his limited action. His age isn’t ideal in his age 30 season, but now 3 years removed from his injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to be a serviceable player. That would likely him make an upgrade on #3 cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who was the weak point of this defense last season, finishing 83rd among 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF. Murphy-Bunting was a second round pick in 2019 and he played better as a rookie, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Cockrell beat him out for the primary slot cornerback job, which is where Cockrell is at his best.

Starters Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis are also young, going in the 3rd round in 2019 and the 2nd round in 2018 respectively, but they’ve developed a lot better than Murphy-Bunting has, combining to be one of the better starting cornerback duos in the league in 2020, finishing 11th and 41st respectively among cornerbacks on PFF. Davis is the more proven of the two, making 40 career starts and earning average or better grades in all 3 seasons in the league, but Dean has shown a higher upside and especially played well down the stretch last season, when he was the clearly better of these two cornerbacks. That might not necessarily continue in 2021, but either way, they should remain a solid starting cornerback duo.

The Buccaneers also have good young players at safety, with 2018 4th round pick Jordan Whitehead actually being the most experienced player the Buccaneers have at the position. Whitehead has made 41 starts in 3 seasons in the league, but prior to last season, he had struggled, finishing 66th among 99 eligible safeties on PFF on 660 snaps as a rookie and then 97th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF on 919 snaps in 2019, but he made a big leap forward in 2020 and finished 37th at his position. He’s a one-year wonder and not a guarantee to play that well again, but it’s also possible he’s turned a corner and will remain a solid starter going forward.

Antoine Winfield, a 2nd round pick in 2020, was the Buccaneers’ best safety last season, despite being a rookie, finishing 33rd among safeties on PFF. He should remain at least a solid starter and has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league. Winfield is locked in as a starter, but Whitehead may have to compete for his role because 2019 3rd round pick Mike Edwards could also be in the mix. 

Edwards struggled as a rookie, finishing 80th among 98 eligible safeties on PFF across 614 snaps, but he flashed a lot of potential on 189 snaps last season, suggesting he may deserve another shot at a bigger role. Even if he doesn’t, he is well qualified as a third safety. This is a deep and talented young group overall. Their youth may give them more variance and potential downside than a comparable veteran unit, but they also have a much higher upside.

Grade: B+

Kicker/Punter

Special teams was the Buccaneers’ achilles heel last season and likely led to at least a couple of their close regular season losses. Not only did they rank 26th in special teams DVOA, but they were one of four teams to all finish below average in all special teams DVOA aspects. Kicker Ryan Succop went 28/31 on field goals, but he went 52/57 on extra points and only attempted twice from 50+ yards, so he was part of the problem.

Succop hasn’t been great in the past, making 83.9% of his field goals in his career and 93.1% of his extra points since the rule change that moved the extra point back, and he’s just one season removed from his worst season in 2019, when he made 24/25 extra points, but just 1/6 field goals, leading to him finishing 38th among 39 eligible kickers on PFF and eventually getting cut. He’ll face competition from rookie undrafted free agent Jose Borregales, who made 80.5% of his collegiate field goals, including 90.9% in 2020, and 6/8 on 50+ yards (including a made 57-yarder). He could easily take Succop’s job with a strong training camp and could also prove to be an upgrade, though that’s not a guarantee.

Punter Bradley Pinion was not the problem, as not only did he rank 2nd in punting grade on PFF, but he also handled kickoffs and ranked 1st in kickoff grade. The Buccaneers still finished below average in punting and kickoff DVOA, but that was due to poor play around Pinion. Pinion has traditionally handled kickoffs in his career, finishing 2nd, 9th, and 1st in kickoff grade on PFF in 2017-2019 respectively, and, while he hasn’t been quite as good as a punter, he has still finished above average on PFF in four straight seasons, so if the Buccaneers can get better play around Pinion, we could see the Buccaneers’ kickoff and punting units become a strength. That’s unlikely to happen with their place kicking, even if the rookie Borregales can win the job, but they could still get better play from their kicker even if it doesn’t become a strength.

Grade: B+

Return Specialists

The Buccaneers struggled in both return games, averaging 5.9 yards per punt return (24th in the NFL), 21.8 yards per kickoff return (19th in the NFL), and finishing below average in both kickoff and punt return DVOA. The problem was equal parts the returners and the supporting cast. Jaydon Mickens led the team in both kickoff returns and punt returns, averaging 24.3 per kickoff return across 14 attempts and 6.2 per punt return across 16 attempts.

He seems likely to be their primary option on both kickoffs and punts again in 2021 as well, as Kenjon Barner, who returned 7 kickoffs and 13 punts last season, is no longer with the team and was not replaced, leaving Justin Watson (3 kickoffs returns) as the only Buccaneer to return more than one kick or punt last season. Watson also returned 2 punts in 2019, but is not likely to be a serious candidate for either job, even with Mickens being as underwhelming as he was last season. Mickens does have decent averages of 24.2 yards per kickoff return and 8.1 yards per punt return in his career, but he will need better play from his supporting cast to reach those numbers in 2021, as he’s not explosive enough to make up for poor play around him.

Grade: B-

Special Teamers

The Buccaneers’ had just three supporting special teams finish above average on PFF and none who finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF. Making matters worse, the Buccaneers let one of those three, Andrew Adams (295 snaps), leave in free agency, along with Ryan Smith (358 snaps), who isn’t as big of a loss. The Buccaneers did add reinforcements though, adding Joe Jones (349 snaps) a capable, but unspectacular special teamer, and Antonio Hamilton (328 snaps), a consistently above average special teamer.

Patrick O’Connor (352 snaps) and Justin Watson (172 snaps) are their top returning special teamers and should be among their best special teamers again in 2021, along with Hamilton, but neither one of them has a history of consistently being as good as they were in 2020. The rest of the Buccaneers’ returning special teamers, Kevin Minter (309 snaps), Cam Gill (226 snaps), Anthony Nelson (208 snaps), Mike Edwards (176 snaps), and Ross Cockrell (155 snaps) all struggled last season and don’t have a history of being better than average in a season. The Buccaneers are well coached on special teams by long-time NFL special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong, but the lack of talent remains a concern.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

Super Bowl winners historically have a hard time repeating, doing so just 7 out of 55 times, with many defending champions not even coming close to making it back. The Buccaneers have brought back every key member of this team in an unprecedented attempt to try to avoid the usual pitfalls of defending Super Bowl Champions, but there are still some concerns for a team with a quarterback who is playing very much in uncharted territory in his age 44 season, and that likely won’t have as good of injury luck as last season, particularly on the offensive line, which had the fewest games lost to injury of any offensive line in the league. The Buccaneers will definitely be in the mix to repeat, but the potential downside is there as well. I will have a final prediction for the Buccaneers at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: The Buccaneers’ special teams are a concern again this season, which is more predictive than I originally thought, but this team is still talented enough to be high level contenders even with below average special teams play, as they were in 2021. There is some downside here if they can’t stay as healthy as a year ago or if Tom Brady starts to show his age, but they should be considered one of the top favorites to win it all.

9/4/21 Update: The Buccaneers might be a little overrated because, while they did bring back all their starters from a Super Bowl winner, they are unlikely to be as healthy as they were last season, when they lost five games in the regular season. Most of their losses were against good teams, but projections having them win 14-16 games seem a little high. Still, this should be one of the best teams in the league.

Prediction: 13-4 1st in NFC South

Los Angeles Chargers 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

For years, the story for the Chargers was almost always the same. They would look good on paper at the beginning of the season, but would almost always be derailed by injuries, poor special teams, and a poor record in one score games. In first down rate differential, the Chargers rank 4th in the NFL dating back to 2004, only behind the Patriots, Steelers, and Saints and ahead of nine teams that have won Super Bowls and five others that have at least appeared in one.

I typically prefer first down rate differential to other stats because it doesn’t account for things like special teams and record in close games that tend to be highly non-predictive week-to-week and year-to-year, but, with the exception of a few seasons where they have managed a significant win total, the Chargers have always been the outlier to that. On top of that, in the seasons where they did manage a significant win total, they always came up short, never advancing to even a single Super Bowl, with their last one now dating back 27 years to 1994, when they lost their first and only Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Injuries also tend to be something that’s highly unpredictable on a year-to-year basis, but the Chargers consistently found themselves among the most banged up teams in the league as well.

I never bought the argument that likely Hall of Fame quarterback Philip Rivers was the biggest reason for the Chargers’ consistent underachieving, because he had nothing to do with two of the three main factors, special teams and injuries, and the third factor, record in close games, is a team stat more than anything, as evidenced by many Hall of Fame and future Hall of Fame quarterbacks having career records around .500 in games decided by one score or less. However, I understood the Chargers decision to move on from Rivers before his age 39 season in 2020, which he spent with the Colts, making 25 million in what ended up being his final season in the league. 

Rivers was a cost prohibitive short-term solution at best and the Chargers had the opportunity to secure a franchise quarterback in the draft with their 6th overall pick and replace Rivers with a much cheaper option who could potentially be a long-term franchise quarterback. The Chargers also had veteran backup Tyrod Taylor as an inexpensive short-term bridge quarterback and intended to start him until their rookie quarterback, University of Oregon’s Justin Herbert, was ready. Herbert ended up being thrown into action far before being deemed ready though, as a medical situation during week 2 sidelined Taylor for a couple weeks, and Herbert played well enough that he never gave the job back, making the final 15 starts of the season. 

For the first half of the season, it was more of the season for the Chargers. They started 2-7, with all 7 losses coming by one score or less, including three games against elite teams (Chiefs, Buccaneers, Saints) in which the Chargers held a halftime lead. Their special teams were among the worst in the league. And an injury streak that started in the pre-season when stud safety Derwin James was lost for the season then continued into the season, with other key players missing time with injury early in the season.

However, their luck seemed to turn in the second half of the season. They got healthier, their schedule got easier, and they ended up winning five of their last seven games, including four one-score wins, to end the season with a 5-7 record in one-score games and a 7-9 record overall. The Chargers also did that despite still finishing the season with the worst special teams in the league by DVOA and with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury overall. If they can have even average injury luck and special teams play, the Chargers could win a couple more games just from that alone. 

The Chargers didn’t finish last season quite as high in first down rate differential as they have in the past, but they still ranked 14th with an even first down rate differential, allowing a first down rate that was 0.93% lower than expected given their competition (10th in the NFL) and picking up first downs at a rate that was 0.93% lower than expected given their competition (22nd in the NFL). Normally I would be a little concerned that a team was more reliant on defense than offense because defense tends to be the less predictable side of the ball, but with the players they are set to get back from injury, they should be better on offense and could also be improved on defense as well, depending on how things go.

Herbert was not the problem on this offense, as he went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after being thrown into the lineup before being “ready.” I will get into the problems with this offense later, but Herbert finished the season with among the best statistics ever by a rookie quarterback, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, which is made even more impressive when you consider the problems that he was dealing around him on offense. Herbert also showed his athleticism, adding 234 yards and 5 touchdowns on 55 carries (4.25 YPC), and overall finished as PFF’s 16th ranked quarterback on the season. 

The development and growth of young quarterback isn’t always linear, as evidenced by the up and downs of the quarterback who held many of the records that are now held by Herbert, Baker Mayfield, who looked like a potential future MVP candidate as a rookie in 2018, but arguably hasn’t reached the level he played as a rookie in his two subsequent seasons since. That’s not to say Herbert won’t eventually develop into a top-5 quarterback and an MVP candidate, but it probably won’t be a linear development and his dominant rookie year isn’t necessarily indicative of an MVP caliber ceiling.

That being said, the Chargers are obviously thrilled to have the quarterback position locked down for the foreseeable future and for the next three years at an affordable rate, with Herbert on a rookie deal. That will allow the Chargers to be aggressive in adding talent to this team without having to worry as much about the salary cap, with a quarterback making well below the market average for a top level signal caller, something the Chargers took advantage of to some extent this off-season. One position where they didn’t spend significant resources was backup quarterback, with career clipboard holder (5 starts in 11 seasons in the league) Chase Daniel signed to replace Taylor as the #2 quarterback. The Chargers rightfully committed to Herbert at quarterback for the long-term.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Given the disparity between the Chargers’ passing offense last season and their overall offensive performance, you might think the Chargers struggled on the ground and you’d be right, as they finished with the 3rd lowest YPC in the league at 3.83, but it’s more complicated than that. If you look at their top 5 players in carries, you would see two that stand out as especially struggling, while the other three had solid averages. One of those three was Justin Herbert, who obviously doesn’t count towards their running backs, but the other two, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, averaged 4.57 YPC on 116 carries and 4.58 YPC on 59 carries respectively, while Joshua Kelly and Kalen Ballage averaged 3.19 YPC on 111 carries and 3.30 YPC on 88 carries respectively. 

You might be wondering why the Chargers would give such a big chunk of the carries to Ballage and Kelley if Ekeler and Jackson were clearly the better runners and there are a few reasons for that, most importantly, availability, as Ekeler and Jackson were limited to 10 games and 9 games respectively. Ekeler is also undersized at 5-10 200 and sees significant usage in the passing game, so the Chargers try to limit his usage in the running game. He had 63 touches in his three games (47 carries, 16 catches) prior to the hamstring injury that cost him six games and most of a seventh, but upon his return was used a little more sparingly, with 104 touches (67 carries, 37 catches) in the six games upon his return, an average of 17.3 touches per game, down from 21.0 per game prior to the injury.

His 2021 usage will probably be somewhere in between those touch numbers, but I would expect at least a third of them to come in the passing game, which would put Ekeler at about 12-14 carries per game, leaving plenty of carries for other running backs. There is also still concern even at that workload about whether or not he can hold up over a full season. The former undrafted free agent largely fell out of the draft because of his lack of size and, while he’s shown plenty of ability, with 4.74 yards per carry and 7.97 yards per target, he’s also never topped 224 touches in a season, which is 14 touches per game in a 16-game season. Ekeler is a dynamic back who is still only going into his age 26 season and the Chargers are a much better offense when he’s healthy and on the field, but any way you look at it, the Chargers will still need to rely on at least one other running back for significant action this season.

Ideally, Justin Jackson would be the second back who works in tandem with Ekeler, but he is an even bigger injury concern. He has averaged 4.90 YPC for his career, but he’s missed 19 of 48 games since the Chargers selected him in the 7th round in 2018 and is highly unproven with just 138 career carries. He’s shown some ability in the passing game as well and could easily have a significant role in this offense if he’s healthy, but that’s a big if. He also doesn’t have the ideal size to take on a significant workload at 6-0 199.

Given the durability concerns of Ekeler and Jackson and how much Joshua Kelley, who was still penciled in as the third back, struggled last season, I expected the Chargers to add another running back this off-season, but the only addition they made was 6th round pick Larry Rountree. Rountree could push Kelley for the #3 back job, but Kelley, a 4th round pick in last year’s draft, may have the leg up on the lightly drafted rookie, even as much as Kelley struggled last season. This backfield will be in better shape if they can be healthier, which they probably will be even if only by default, but they should have done more to solidify the position this off-season.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

A big part of the reason for the Chargers’ struggles on the ground last season was their offensive line play. Their offensive line got a lot of attention as a unit that they needed to improve to better protect and support Herbert and they ranked 30th in pass blocking grade as a team on PFF last season, while allowing Herbert to be pressured at a 36.6% rate that was the 12th highest in the league among 39 eligible quarterbacks, but they actually struggled even more as a run blocking unit, ranking dead last on PFF in that aspect. 

Their poor run blocking also probably affected this offense more than their poor pass protection, as Herbert incredibly led the league with a 99.4 QB rating while pressured, completing 57.0% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on those pressured dropbacks. That’s not to say that the Chargers didn’t need to pass protect better for him long-term, but improved run blocking would lead to a more consistent running game and more favorable down and distance situations for their quarterback, which might have been needed even more than better pass protection.

With their obvious needs on the offensive line in mind, the Chargers made a splash signing in free agency, taking advantage of Herbert’s cheap rookie deal and signing ex-Packers center Corey Linsley to a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal that makes him the second highest paid center in the league. A 5th round pick in 2014, Linsley well exceeded his draft slot and became the Packers starting center in week one of his rookie year, making all 16 starts and finishing as PFF’s 7th ranked center on the season. In total, Linsley made 99 starts in 7 seasons with the Packers, earning an above average grade from PFF in all 7 seasons, including four seasons in the top-7 among centers on PFF. 

Linsley also arguably saved his best season for last, finishing last season as PFF’s 1st ranked center. It’s somewhat concerning that the Chargers are giving a top of the market deal to a player who is coming off of a career best contract year and is now going into his age 30 season, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he was last season, he will be a big upgrade for this team as both a pass and run blocker and centers somewhat regularly play at a high level into their 30s, so I would expect him to have at least another 2-3 good seasons left in the tank, which is the guaranteed portion of his contract. He was a big addition at a huge position of need, where incumbent Dan Feeney finished as PFF’s 37th ranked center out of 38 eligible in 16 starts last season.

The other big addition the Chargers made to this unit was their first round pick, Rashawn Slater, who they selected 13th overall out of Northwestern. Slater played left tackle at Northwestern, but lacks the prototypical size for an NFL left tackle. The Chargers could have selected a more prototypical player in Christian Darrisaw, who fell to the Vikings at pick #23, but, even if Darrisaw ends up being the better left tackle long-term, Slater was still the right selection for the Chargers, who could kick Slater inside to guard and have him fill a big need at that position if the left tackle position doesn’t work out for him at this level. Regardless of future position, there is an argument to be made that Slater was the best offensive lineman in the whole draft, even ahead of #7 overall pick Penei Sewell.

Slater will probably begin his career at left tackle, but the Chargers do have an intriguing third year tackle in Trey Pipkins, who the front office talked up publicly this off-season. A third round pick in 2019, Pipkins has only played 822 career snaps (8 starts) for a team that has desperately needed offensive tackle help and he has been underwhelming in that limited action, but he’s held his own for a young player and could still have the upside to develop into a starter long-term. It’s possible if he has a strong off-season program, the Chargers could reconsider where Slater plays long-term and move him inside to guard, where he could ultimately end up being a perennial Pro-Bowl caliber player.

One reason Slater moving to guard could make sense is because left guard is currently a position of oncern. Incumbent Forrest Lamp was not retained this off-season, understandable, given that he finished 77th out of 86 eligible guards on PFF in 16 starts last season, but the Chargers didn’t really upgrade on him, instead signing veteran journeyman Oday Aboushi. Aboushi is experienced, with 42 starts in 8 seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than a middling starter and he’s never been a full-time starter either, maxing out at 10 starts and 722 snaps way back in his rookie year in 2014. 

Aboushi is a very underwhelming starting option, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the incumbent and the Chargers don’t really have another good option. They used a 5th round pick on Brenden Jaimes, who could play guard long-term, but he’s unlikely to be a starting option as a rookie. Center Scott Quessenberry could also kick over to guard and provide competition, but he was underwhelming in 2019 in the only extended experience of the 2018 5th round pick’s career and couldn’t earn his way into the starting lineup at either center or guard last season, despite poor play from the starters at both positions. 

Right guard is in better shape, after the Chargers signed Matt Feiler. Feiler’s addition isn’t as big as Linsley or Slater, but he still signed a pretty sizable contract, signing for 21 million over 3 years, and is a pretty sizable upgrade over injury prone Trai Turner, who was released this off-season to save 11 million. Turner missed most of the first half of the season with injury, but the Chargers were arguably better off without him upfront, as he finished the season as PFF’s 84th ranked guard out of 86 eligible on 536 snaps. Neither Ryan Groy nor Cole Toner showed much in Turner’s absence last season either, while Feiler finished last season as PFF’s 36th guard and should be able to have a similar season in 2021, still only in his age 29 season.

Feiler, who made 26 starts at right tackle in 2018-2019, was arguably better at that position, finishing 34th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2018 and 18th in 2019, but the Chargers probably won’t have a need for him to play there. I say probably because right tackle Bryan Bulaga has been pretty injury prone over the years, including last season, his first with the Chargers after signing a 3-year, 30 million dollar contract last off-season. In total, he’s missed 51 games in 11 seasons in the league and has only made all 16 starts twice.

One of those two seasons came in 2019, which was arguably the best season of his career overall, ranking 14th among offensive tackles on PFF. That season helped him secure the big contract the Chargers gave him, but he was only an average starter in 10 games last season and was limited to just 444 snaps overall. He’s earned an average or better grade from PFF in every season since his rookie season and he’s finished in the top-30 at his position 5 times, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. 

The Chargers may have overpaid Bulaga based on past performance and now are stuck with a declining player. He could easily still be a capable starter this season, but he’s being paid to be more than that and he’s almost a guarantee to miss time with injury at some point. If the Chargers keep Slater at left tackle, that would put Trey Pipkins in the swing tackle role, in which case he would be the starter in Bulaga’s absence. Additionally, they could move Slater to guard, play Pipkins at left tackle, and move Feiler to right tackle. The Chargers don’t have good depth options beyond Pipkins and left guard is still a position of weakness, but overall this is a much improved offensive line that could easily have four new starters this season, with the fifth being a player who missed most of last season’s disastrous offensive line performance.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

In addition to improving their offensive line, the Chargers also opted to use their two third round picks (one a compensatory pick for losing Rivers) on young pass catchers, taking Tennessee wide receiver Josh Palmer with the 77th pick and Georgia tight end Tre McKitty with the 97th pick. Both will compete to earn playing time as rookies. At tight end, the Chargers found themselves in a strange position this off-season. For years, they had the future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates at the position and then Hunter Henry, who developed as the #2 tight end at the end of Gates’ career, has played well as the starter in recent years. However, Henry signed with the Patriots on a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent, after spending the 2020 season on the franchise tag. 

Instead of trying to outbid the Patriots’ offer or going for another top tight end on the market like Jonnu Smith, who also signed a similar size deal with the Patriots, the Chargers settled for a one-year rental of veteran Jared Cook at 4.5 million and a draft pick, even though they had the financial flexibility to spend at the top of the market. Cook has been a solid receiving tight end throughout his career, averaging a 50/674/5 slash line per 16 games if you exclude the first two seasons of his career in 2009 and 2010, but he’s never been a good blocker and he seems to be slowing down as a receiver, going into his age 34 season, coming off of a season in which he had a 37/504/7 slash line in 15 games with the Saints. McKitty, meanwhile, could develop into a starter long-term, but he’s more of a blocking tight end than a pass catcher.

This could be part of a little bit of an intentional shift away from using the tight end position as much in the passing game in the absence of Philip Rivers, who famously loved targeting the position. Henry’s 60/613/4 slash line in 14 games last season was solid, but not in line with his per game averages with Rivers under center, as Herbert preferred to target wide receivers down the field instead, most notably getting a 28/511/3 season out of #3 wide receiver Jalen Guyton, a 2019 undrafted free agent who had never caught a pass prior to last season. That comes after a 2019 season where, other than the Chargers’ top-2 wide receivers, they had just 25 completions to a wide receiver all season in Philip Rivers’ final season with the team.

Guyton still finished the 2020 season as PFF’s 111st ranked wide receiver out of 112 eligible though, averaging just 0.88 yards per route run (4th worst among eligible receivers) and catching just 50.9% of his targets. His speed and Herbert’s arm strength led to Guyton averaging an impressive 18.3 yards per catch, but he won’t do that every season and he would be best as a situational deep threat rather than as the primary #3 receiver. The Chargers may agree, as evidenced by the selection of Palmer, who could push Guyton for the #3 receiver job, even as a rookie. He may not be a huge upgrade, but it would be hard for him to be more one-dimensional than Guyton. 

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams remain locked in as the top-2 wide receivers, as they have for the past two seasons. Both topped 1000 yards in 2019, but both failed to reach that mark in 2020, for different reasons. For Williams, the reason is that his 1000 yard year in 2019 was primarily the result of an unsustainable 20.4 yards per catch. His catch total has stayed about the same for the past three years, catching between 43-49 passes in each season, but his yards per catch, which was already an impressive 15.4 in 2018 and 15.8 in 2020, shot up in 2019 to the point where he could top 1000 yards with just 49 catches. Williams is a talented former first round pick who should continue averaging a high yards per catch, but he probably won’t reach his 2019 mark again and I wouldn’t expect his catch total to shoot up either, in an offense where Justin Herbert loves to spread the ball around to many receivers.

Keenan Allen, meanwhile, missed the 1000 yard mark because of injuries, as he missed two games and almost all of a third and still managed an impressive 100/992/8 slash line that fell just short. Allen still had a catch total similar to the catch totals he had in 2017-2019, when he played in all 16 games and had between 97-104 catches in every season, but his yards per catch average fell to 9.9. Allen has always been a possession receiver with just a career 11.9 yards per catch average, but he seems to be trending even more that way, as his 7.3 average depth of target in 2020 was well behind his 9.4 career average. 

Allen’s 1.91 yards per route run average wasn’t far off his career average of 2.11 and Allen is still theoretically in the late prime of his career in his age 29 season, but he’s had a lot of injuries over the years and may have to get his yardage total more on volume of targets rather than depth of target going forward. With Williams as a deep threat on the other side, the Chargers have a talented wide receiver duo who complement each other well. There are question marks in this receiving corps and Hunter Henry won’t be easy to replace, but they are hoping to offset his loss with the veteran Jared Cook and a pair of third round picks. This isn’t a bad group overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While the Chargers had injury problems on both sides of the ball last season, the injury bug hit them harder defensively, as they had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Those injuries hit key players as well. I already mentioned the loss of safety Derwin James and I will get into that more later, but in James’ absence edge defender Joey Bosa became the Chargers’ clear cut best defensive player and he too had his own injury issues, limited to just 549 snaps on the season in 12 games. Bosa made the most of his playing time, totaling 7.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate, while playing at a high level against the run and earning PFF’s 3rd highest edge defender grade overall. 

That’s nothing new for Bosa, who has earned a top-8 grade among edge defenders from PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league since being selected 3rd overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but unfortunately neither are injuries, as he’s been limited to 12 games or fewer in 3 of his 5 seasons. He’s been very productive given the relatively limited playing time, with 47.5 sacks, 66 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 63 career games, and, still only going into his age 26 season, his best days may still be yet to come. If he can stay healthy for a full season and play like he has at his best, he has Defensive Player of the Year upside and even if he isn’t in contention for that award, he should be one of the top edge defenders in the league once again this season.

Bosa’s long-time complement Melvin Ingram also had his own injury issues last season, limited to 361 snaps in 7 games, but he was let go this off-season, so the Chargers won’t benefit from his return this season. Ingram played well in his limited action last season, but it’s understandable why the Chargers let him walk, as he’s going into his age 32 season and the Chargers have a homegrown replacement in Uchenna Nwosu who will be taking over for Ingram. 

A 2nd round pick in 2018, Nwosu is a projection to a larger role because he’s been limited to a max of 362 snaps in a season because of the talent ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s shown well both as a run stuffer and a pass rusher, with 10 sacks, 21 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate for his career. His best year came last year, when he finished as PFF’s 23rd ranked edge defender on 356 snaps. Still only going into his age 25 season, Nwosu has a ton of upside and is a perfect fit for the Chargers new base 3-4 defense, so he easily could have a breakout season in his first full season as a starter.

With Nwosu moving into the starting lineup and fellow reserve Isaac Rochell (438 snaps) no longer with the team, the Chargers needed to replenish depth at the position this off-season and did so by using a 4th round pick on Duke’s Chris Rumph and signing veteran journeyman Kyler Fackrell in free agency. Rumph might not make much of an impact as a rookie, but he was a good value in the 4th round and could develop into a contributor long-term.

Fackrell, meanwhile, comes over on a cheap 1-year, 1.5 million dollar deal. A 3rd round pick by the Packers in 2016, Fackrell had a 10.5-sack season in 2018, but that’s a very misleading total as he managed just 2 other quarterback hits and had a pressure rate of just 9.5% on the season, showing that his sack total came more from being in the right place at the right time rather than consistently generating pressure. 

That sack total also stands out as a huge outlier, as he has just 10 sacks combined in his other 4 seasons in the league and, though his career 9.8% pressure rate is actually better this his 2018 mark, it’s still an underwhelming rate for an edge defender and he doesn’t make up for it with his play against the run. Fackrell has played 524 snaps per season over the past 4 seasons, but he’s a low upside option that figures to be a snap eater at best. He’s not a bad depth option, but the Chargers will really need their top-two edge defenders Joey Bosa and Uchenna Nwosu to stay healthy.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Chargers are in pretty good shape at the edge defender position, the interior is a different story. The Chargers are transitioning from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base, which doesn’t mean nearly as much as it used to because base packages are being used less and less frequently every year, but it does mean that the Chargers will play with three interior defenders together in base packages against running formations. That’s a concern for a team with limited depth at the position. 

Big 6-4 329 pound Linval Joseph figures to line up over the nose and, though he’s going into his age 33 season, he hasn’t seen his play against the run fall off significantly and he still earned an above average grade from PFF last season for his run defense, but his pass rush ability seems to have disappeared. He’s never been a great pass rusher, but his pressure rate is at 7.1% for his career and, over the past three seasons, that has fallen to 5.5%, with just 4 sacks and 7 hits in 44 games over that stretch. He played 726 snaps last season and could play close to that many snaps again this season as more of an every down player than a true two down run stuffer, but that’s more out of necessity due to the Chargers’ lack of other options rather than Joseph still having every down ability.

Justin Jones also played a significant amount last season (527 snaps) and will continue to have a significant role, but he doesn’t offer much pass rush either, with his best play coming against the run. Jones broke out as PFF’s 11th ranked interior defender in run defense grade last season, but that’s still an outlier in his 3-year career and the 2018 3rd round pick has yet to develop any pass rush, with 1.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 5.2% pressure rate in 40 career games. He’ll play a significant role and should be solid against the run even if he’s not quite as good as he was last season, but I don’t see him suddenly breaking out as a pass rusher.

Jerry Tillery is the best pass rusher of the bunch, totaling 3 sacks, 13 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate, while leading the position group with 747 snaps played on the season. He should continue seeing a significant role this season, considering he is their only reliable interior pass rush option, but the problem is, while he’s solid as a pass rusher, he is one of the worst run defenders in the league at his position, earning PFF’s 129th ranked run defense grade out of 138 eligible interior defenders last season, leading to him ranking 127th out of 138 overall on the season, despite being a capable pass rusher. 

Tillery was a first round pick in 2019, but his rookie year was even worse, as he struggled as both a run stopper and a pass rusher and earned PFF’s worst interior defender grade, while being limited to just 354 snaps. Tillery still has upside and could have the best season of his career in 2021, but that’s far from a guarantee and, even if he does, I still expect him to be a liability against the run. Like Joseph and Jones, he’ll see significant action largely out of necessity.

Damion Square was their best reserve last season and, with him gone and the team switching schemes, the Chargers will be reliant on unproven players like Cortez Broughton and Breiden Fehoko. Broughton was a 2019 7th round pick who has played just 115 career snaps, while Fehoko is a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played just 19 career snaps, but unless the Chargers make a veteran addition or two, both players will likely see action this season, for lack of a better option. This is a position group of concern.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Chargers lost a pair of linebackers this off-season in Nick Vigil and Denzel Perryman, but they played just 312 snaps and 317 snaps respectively in 2020, so they won’t really be missed, especially since they will have less need for off ball linebackers as they switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base. Kenneth Murray and Kyzir White, who led the position in snaps last season with 959 and 538 respectively, both return and should play significant roles and they also have Drue Tranquil returning from injury after missing all but 5 snaps in 2020 and he will be in the mix for a role as well. 

Murray played an every down role last season and should remain in that role in 2021. He wasn’t great, only earning a middling grade from PFF, but he was just a rookie and the 23rd overall pick has plenty of upside to get better in year two and beyond. He could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. Tranquil has upside as well, as he earned a slightly above average grade from PFF overall on 382 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2019 and looked poised for a bigger role in 2020 before the injury.

With Murray locked into an every down role, Tranquil will compete with White for playing time. White is relatively young as well, going in the 4th round in 2018, but he doesn’t have quite the same upside as Tranquil. Prior to last season, he had played just 514 snaps in his career, in part due to injury, and, in the most extended playing time of his career in 2020, he finished 65th out of 99 eligible off ball linebackers on 538 snaps. Tranquil could overtake him with a good training camp if he’s healthy. This is a young group, but they have upside.

Grade: B+

Secondary

As I mentioned, by far the biggest injury absence for the Chargers last season was safety Derwin James, who went down for the season with a knee injury before the season even began. When he’s been on the field, James is arguably more important to this defense than even Joey Bosa, so it can’t be understated how big his absence was. James played all 16 starts as a rookie and finished as PFF’s 6th ranked safety on the season, but he missed the first 11 games of the 2019 season with a foot injury and, while he finished as PFF’s 8th highest ranked safety in the 5-game stretch in which he did play, now having missed 27 of the past 32 games with significant lower body injury, it’s fair to wonder if James can return his top level form. Even if he doesn’t though, the Chargers will still benefit immensely from his presence on the field and, still only going into his age 25 season, it’s definitely still possible he puts his injury woes behind him and continues his ascension among the top safeties in the league.

James is returning to a secondary that is very different from the secondary around him in 2018. That season, top outside cornerback Casey Hayward finished as PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback on the season, while slot cornerback Desmond King finished 2nd, giving the Chargers one of the best secondaries in the league. Neither was able to repeat that season and both have since been let go, with King being traded to the Titans in the middle of the final year of his rookie year last season and Hayward getting cut this off-season, ahead of a 9.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season.

The transition in this secondary started when they signed ex-Broncos cornerback Chris Harris to a 2-year, 17 million dollar deal in free agency last season. Harris is at his best on the slot, causing the Chargers to move King around and play him as a safety more often than a cornerback before trading him, and Harris’ salary made it less likely the Chargers would give Hayward a chance to bounce back from a down season. The Chargers also gave a 3-year, 25.2 million dollar deal to Michael Davis, a 2017 undrafted free agent who has developed into a capable, if unspectacular starter over the past few seasons (35 starts since 2018, including 14 in 2020). The Chargers also used a 2nd round pick on Asante Samuel, who figures to see a significant role and round out the Chargers top-3 cornerbacks.

Davis hasn’t shown a high upside and Samuel is only a rookie, so Harris will probably be counted on as the top cornerback. Harris was once one of the top cornerbacks in the league with the Broncos, but he has not continued that with the Chargers and has pretty noticeably dropped off over the past two seasons. Harris finished in the top-18 among cornerbacks on PFF in 7 straight seasons from 2012-2018, including 5 seasons in the top-4, but he fell to 38th in his final season in Denver before falling to 64th in 2020 with the Chargers in an injury plagued season that saw him play just 568 snaps in 9 games. 

Harris has been pretty durable in his career, playing all 16 games in 7 of 10 seasons in the league, and he could easily remain a solid starter for another couple seasons, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining and became a liability. His best play comes on the slot, but he’s played both inside and outside in his career and will likely continue playing in that capacity in 2021. With Tevaughn Campbell, a 2019 undrafted free agent who struggled on the first 326 snaps of his career last season, expected to be the 4th cornerback, the Chargers’ depth is suspect as well, so they’ll need their top cornerbacks to stay healthy.

Rayshawn Jenkins made 15 starts last season and was a solid starter, but with James set to return, Jenkins was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and signed with the Jaguars. The Chargers have their starters set even without him, with third year player Nasir Adderley expected to continue starting after making 14 starts last season, but they may regret letting Jenkins walk, not just because of James’ injury history and their lack of depth at the position, but also because Adderley struggled last season, finishing 87th out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF. A 2nd round pick in 2019, Adderley has the talent to be better going forward, but he missed all but 10 snaps as a rookie before struggling last season, so he really hasn’t proven anything. The Chargers will need James to stay healthy because this secondary is pretty uninspiring otherwise.

Grade: B

Kicker/Punter

The Chargers have been synonymous with bad special teams for years and last year was no different, as they finished dead last in special teams DVOA, their second straight last place finish, their seventh straight finish in the bottom-10, and their 5th finish in seven years in the bottom-4. Kicker Michael Badgley wasn’t really the problem in 2018 or 2019, making 97.9% of his extra points and 87.5% of his field goals in his first two seasons with the team, seemingly locking down a long-term position of weakness for the Chargers, though he did miss time with injury in both seasons.

However, Badgley imploded in 2020, playing all 16 games for the first time, but making 92.3% of his extra points and just 72.7% of his field goals, including just 10/19 from 40+ yards, finishing 33rd among 36 eligible kickers on PFF and giving the Chargers one of the worst kicking situations in the league yet again. Badgley has some bounce back potential in 2021, but even at his best he never finished higher than 17th among kickers and he could easily have a below average year again. 

The Chargers did add a pair of kickers as competition this off-season, Tristan Vizcaino and Alex Kessman, but it’s unclear if either will be an upgrade. Vizcaino made all three of his field goal attempts for the 49ers in 2020, but his long was just 47 yards, so it’s hard to make much of that small sample size, which is the only action of his professional career. He also was just a one-year collegiate starter who underwhelmed in limited action, making 12/20 of his field goals and 49/52 of his extra points.

Kessman, meanwhile, is an undrafted rookie who seems to have a better shot at actually winning the job. He wasn’t that consistent in 4 years as the starting kicker at the University of Pittsburgh, hitting just 72.6% of his field goals, but he hit an impressive 12 of 18 field goals with a long of 58 yards, so he definitely has an NFL leg if he can become more consistent. Badgley may remain the favorite to keep his job, but that says more about his competition than it does about him, with both Kessman and Vizcaino likely being unreliable options even if they do beat him out.

The Chargers punter situation was bad last season too, with Ty Long finishing 33rd out of 34 eligible punters on PFF and also ranking just 32nd out of 34 eligible with 4.18 seconds of hang time. That was made worse by the poor performance of their supporting special teamers, leading to the Chargers finishing with the worst punting DVOA in the league by far, a big part of the reason why they finished dead last overall. Long wasn’t much better in his first year as a starter in 2019, finishing dead out of 32 eligible punters on PFF and having even less hang time (4.06 seconds).

Long will face competition from veteran Lachlan Edwards, but he never finished better than 26th among punters on PFF in four seasons with the Jets, he hasn’t topped 4.2 seconds of hang time since his rookie season in 2016, and he was out of the league entirely in 2020, so if Edwards wins the job and is an upgrade, it would likely only be by default, as their punter is likely to be a below average one regardless of who wins the job. Badgley was at least decent on kickoffs, but their poor supporting cast play on kickoff returns led to them to finish well below average in kickoff return DVOA. Once again the Chargers figure to have a very shaky kicker/punter combination in 2021.

Grade: C-

Return Specialists

Despite the Chargers’ horrible special teams overall in 2020, they actually were not one of four teams to finish below average in DVOA in all aspects of special teams, as their kickoff return unit finished at even. That was not due to their supporting special teamers though, or even their primary return man Joe Reed, who finished slightly above average on PFF, but managed just 20.7 yards per return across 21 attempts, primarily because of the lack of help around him. Instead, it was safety Nasir Adderley who elevated this group, taking over as the kickoff returner down the stretch and taking 11 returns for an average of 28.9 yards per, including returns of 76 yards and 54 yards respectively.

Adderley is a full-time safety though and is unlikely to be the primary kickoff returner in 2021, with Reed expected to remain the starter. Reed didn’t do a bad job all things considered and the 2020 5th round pick was a four-year returner at the University of Virginia, scoring 5 times on 106 returns with an average of 28.7 yards per return, but life is much tougher in the NFL, especially if you lack a good supporting cast, so he could continue to post an underwhelming average, even if it’s not necessarily his fault.

While Adderley gave the Chargers at least somewhat of a boost on kickoff returns, the Chargers did not get the same on punt returns, ranking 28th in the NFL with 5.6 yards per punt return, in part due to poor play by their returners and poor play by the supporting cast. A 7th round pick in 2020, KJ Hill finished just 41st out of 52nd eligible returners last season and, while he has experience as a returner at the collegiate level, it was underwhelming experience, as he averaged just 5.6 yards per return across 46 returns. He is likely to remain in the role, for lack of a better option, but he figures to struggle again, both because of his own play and the play around him.

Grade: C+

Special Teamers

The one bit of good news for the Chargers is, with their coaching staff overhaul, they will have new leadership on special teams, with Derius Swinton taking over after a mess of a coaching situation that effectively saw three different special teams coordinators throughout the course of last season. Swinton is young and inexperienced, but changing coaching can lead to improvement for struggling special teams units. Beyond that, however, there is not much reason to be optimistic about this group and, as hard as it may be to believe, the Chargers could be in even worse shape at this position in 2021.

The Chargers had four players who played more than 200 special teams snaps and finished above average on PFF in 2020, but three of those players, Malik Jefferson (232 snaps), Nick Vigil (211 snaps), and Isaac Rochell (229 snaps), went elsewhere this off-season, only leaving Stephen Anderson (298 snaps) behind. Jefferson and Vigil were the best of the bunch, finishing 38th and 63rd respectively among special teamers on PFF, so they will be missed the most, while Anderson has an inconsistent history and might not be as good in 2021 as he was in 2020.

The Chargers’ only free agent addition with any special teams experience is Ryan Smith, who has averaged 261 snaps per season in 5 seasons as a special teamer, including three seasons above average on PFF and a career best 10th ranked finish, but he’s also coming off of a career worst year in 2020, finishing in the bottom 15% of special teamers on PFF and, while he may bounce back in 2021, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good as he’s been in his best years.

Brandon Facyson (280 snaps), Gabe Nabers (264 snaps), Alohi Gillman (182 snaps), Emeke Egbule (175 snaps), and Tevaughn Campbell (167 snaps) all return after seeing significant snaps last season and will likely see significant snaps again, but none of them finished better than average on PFF, with Nabers and Gilman especially struggling, and none of them have a history of above average play either. The Chargers will need great coaching and a big contribution from their rookie class to even have passable special teams this season and they are very likely to be one of the worst special teams units in the league once again in 2021.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Chargers should have better health and special teams play next season due to sheer regression to the mean and they did a pretty good job of adding more talent this off-season at positions of name, most notably on their offensive line, which looks likely to go from being a league worst unit to at least a serviceable group. All of that could easily boost a team that went 7-9 last season into playoff contention. They have the upside to be more than that, but much of that relies on Justin Herbert taking another step forward after having one of the better rookie years ever by a quarterback, which is far from a guarantee in 2021. I will have a final prediction for the Chargers at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: Special teams is more predictive than I thought and no team’s projection is hurt by that more than the Chargers. I am not as high on their playoff chances as I was previously, but they could still sneak in if they can be above average on both offense and defense, which is a possibility.

9/4/21 Update: The Chargers seem to be a trendy playoff qualifier, but they’re starting from a lower base point than most realize. They did nearly beat some great teams early in the season, but all of their late season wins came against underwhelming opponents, as they won their seven games by an average of 6.4 points per game and didn’t beat a single winning team aside from the Chiefs’ backups. Most of their losses were close and they did lose to some great teams, but they had several losses to teams that were .500 or worse, in the Broncos, Raiders, Patriots, and Panthers. Their offense should be better and they could be better on defense as well, but special teams remains a significant issue that will likely keep them out of the post-season against a tougher schedule.

Prediction: 7-10 3rd in AFC West

Minnesota Vikings 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Vikings finished the 2020 season just 7-9, their worst record since 2014, but there are reasons to be optimistic about this team. For one, their major problem last season was special teams, which tends to have a very high variance on a year-to-year basis. The Vikings ranked 8th in offensive DVOA and 18th in defensive DVOA, but ranked only ahead of the Chargers in special teams DVOA, so if they can have even average special teams play in 2021, that alone could lead to a couple more wins for a team who lost a trio of games by 3 points or fewer in 2020.

First down rate differential shows this as well, as the Vikings finished the season 8th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.69%, ranking 3rd in first down rate over expected at +3.01% and 26th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.33%. Obviously that defensive performance is concerning, but defensive performance tends to be much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance and the Vikings are set to get some key defensive players back from injury, which could allow them to much more closely resemble the defense that ranked 13th in first down rate allowed in 2019. 

The Vikings’ defense was actually a middling unit for most of the season until bottoming out due to so many key injury absences down the stretch. They will probably have more injuries on offense this season, after finishing with the 5th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on offense in 2020 (as opposed to the 3rd most on defense), but their offense was actually the best in football on early downs last season, which tends to be the most predictive down. 

The Vikings ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate on 1st and 2nd down at 34.78% (the Bills ranked 2nd at 33.83% and the league average was 30.01%) and somewhat ridiculously they converted first downs at a higher rate on 1st and 2nd down than all but four teams did when you include all downs (league average 32.72%). If the Vikings had converted 3rd and 4th downs at a higher than average rate last season (16th at 42.65%), they could have been the best offense in the league. 

The Vikings didn’t have much financial flexibility in free agency this off-season and lost some key players as a result, but they did do a good job with the limited financial flexibility they had and they arguably had one of the best drafts in the league. I’ll get into all of that later, but one obvious reason for the Vikings limited financial flexibility is the financial investment they have in Kirk Cousins, who has made 94 million from the Vikings since signing with them 3 seasons ago and is set to make another guaranteed 56 million over the next 2 seasons.

It’s certainly debatable whether Cousins is worth that kind of money, but his performance hasn’t been the problem and, despite his team’s record, he had one of the best seasons of his career last season, ranking 10th among quarterbacks on PFF and completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 8.27 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He played especially well on first down, averaging a ridiculous 9.26 yards per attempt. His 105.0 QB rating was 8th in the NFL and only the second best of his career only to the 107.4 QB rating he had in 2019, which was also the only season in which he ranked higher on PFF, ranking 5th. 

Overall, Cousins has completed 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.77 YPA, 91 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions in 3 seasons with the Vikings, while never finishing worse than 15th among quarterbacks on PFF. Cousins is still in the prime of his career in his age 33 season and hasn’t finished worse than 20th on PFF in 6 seasons as a starter in his career or missed a game due to injury over that stretch, so there is no reason to expect any sort of drop off from him this season, even if he isn’t necessarily quite as good as he has been over the past couple seasons.

The Vikings didn’t have a short-term need for a quarterback this off-season, but part of why I liked their draft so much was the selection of Kellen Mond with the 66th overall pick at the top of the third round, one of four picks the Vikings had in the third round after some movement around the board, including a move down from 14 to 23 in the first round. In a draft that saw 5 quarterbacks go in the top-15, it was a surprise to see Mond, arguably the best of the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft class, fall all the way to #66. 

Mond went two spots behind Jeff Trask, who was the 6th quarterback off the board, but Mond possesses a much higher ceiling and could easily develop into a long-term starter. The Vikings aren’t looking to move on from Cousins any time soon, but if Mond develops as a cheaper replacement in the background, they may opt to move on from Cousins at the end of his current deal in 2022 and, in the short-term, the Vikings lacked a clear backup behind Cousins, a role Mond will likely serve in as a rookie. How he would prove as a rookie is unclear, but Cousins’ durability and consistency will likely make that irrelevant. 

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

One consequence of the Vikings’ lack of financial flexibility this off-season was they released left tackle Riley Reiff, who finished last season above average on PFF in 15 starts, but was owed a non-guaranteed 12.75 million for his age 33 season in 2021 and was let go to free up money to address other areas. That would be a big loss if not for the Vikings selecting Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw in the first round, 23rd overall, after trading down with the Jets. Darrisaw could have some growing pains as a rookie, but was the clear 2nd best pure left tackle prospect in the draft class behind Penei Sewell (Rashawn Slater projects best at right tackle or guard) and should be a plug and play starter who will start in the NFL at the always important left tackle position for a long time. He might not be quite as good as Reiff right away, but his addition was a necessary one on draft day.

The Vikings also used a draft pick, one of their third round picks, on Ohio State’s Wyatt Davis, who could compete to start at left guard, the Vikings’ other offensive line position of need on draft day. Journeyman and 7-year veteran Dakota Dozier made 16 starts at left guard last season, after making just 11 starts in his first 6 seasons in the league, and it did not go well, with Dozier finishing 82nd among 86 eligible guards on PFF. Dozier is going into his age 30 season, so he’s unlikely to get better at this point, but it wouldn’t be hard for Davis to be an upgrade by default if he can get into the starting lineup at some point.

Regardless of who starts at left guard, the Vikings have young talented starters at their other three offensive line spots as well. Garrett Bradbury, the Vikings first round pick in 2019, starts at center, while 2018 2nd round pick Brian O’Neill starts at right tackle, and 2020 2nd round pick Ezra Cleveland starts at right guard. Bradbury struggled as a rookie, finishing 30th out of 37 eligible centers on PFF, but he took a step forward in 2020 and was about an average starter. It’s not what you would want out of a first round pick and Bradbury is a little older than his service time would suggest, going into his age 26 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward, even if that’s not a guarantee.

O’Neill is the best of the bunch and probably will be their best offensive lineman overall. He’s taken a step forward in every season in the league, going from a middling starter in 11 starts as a rookie to PFF’s 33rd ranked offensive tackle in 15 starts in 2019 and their 24th ranked offensive tackle in 16 starts last season. The Vikings probably considered moving him to right tackle before selecting Darrisaw because the left side is the more important side, but it was probably best to add a left tackle and leave O’Neill at the position he is playing well.

Ezra Cleveland didn’t take over as the starter until week 6 and only made 9 starts total as a rookie, but he earned PFF’s 29th highest grade for a guard and was an obvious upgrade over Dru Samia, who made 4 starts and finished as PFF’s 85th ranked guard out of 86 eligible. This off-season, the Vikings upgraded on Samia as a reserve, acquiring Mason Cole from the Cardinals for a late round pick. 

Cole is an underwhelming offensive lineman, but a serviceable and a versatile one. He’s made 32 career starts and played 4 different positions in 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2018 and he provides good insurance on the interior in case of injury. The Vikings also have Rashod Hill as their swing tackle and he’s shown a lot of promise in 17 career starts, so they have good depth overall. Losing Reiff hurts, but this is a talented young offensive line with a high upside across the board.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the Vikings have an intriguing offensive line, the reason they were so good offensively last season was their offensive skill position players and, if they play at a high level offensively again this season, that will once again be the reason why. The Vikings have a pair of great wide receivers who I will get into later, but this is a team built around the run, which is a big part of why they play so well on early downs. 

The difference between Dalvin Cook’s performance on first down and the rest of the downs was not as pronounced last season as Kirk Cousins, but he still averaged 5.48 yards per carry on first down. On top of that, Kirk Cousins had the 5th highest play action QB rating in the league at 122.3 (as opposed to 97.6 on non-play action plays) and Cook’s presence almost definitely was the biggest reason for that. That was also the case in 2019 when Cousins had the 4th highest play action QB rating for the league at 129.2 (97.2 on non-play action plays) alongside Cook having another dominant season.

All in all, Cook has totaled 2,692 yards and 29 touchdowns on 562 carries (4.79 YPC), while adding 97 catches for 880 yards and another touchdown through the air over the past two seasons, and he has earned PFF’s 7th and 3rd highest overall grades for a running back in those two seasons. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Cook was known for his durability issues and talent early in his career, rushing for 4.68 YPC, but on just 207 carries in 15 games combined in his first 2 seasons in the league, but he’s been as durable as any running back in the league over the past two seasons, despite a significant workload. It’s always a risk that a running back gets hurt or slows down after a big workload, especially if they have an injury history, but Cook has a good chance to remain among the league’s best running backs for a third straight season, still only in his age 26 season.

If Cook can’t do that, the Vikings have a good insurance policy in 2019 3rd round pick Alexander Mattison. Mattison doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher, but has averaged 4.57 yards per carry on 196 carries in 2 seasons in the league and should be involved as a backup even if Cook stays healthy, on a team that ranked 8th in the NFL in carries last season. #3 running back Mike Boone also flashed last season with a 5.36 YPC average on 11 carries and, while he’s no longer with the team, the Vikings used a 4th round pick on Iowa State’s Kene Nwangwu, helping to ensure they continue to have good depth at the position. They have one of the best running back groups in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the Vikings have a pair of great wide receivers. That has been the case for this team since 2016, but from 2016-2019 those two receivers were Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. In 2020, those receivers were Thielen and Justin Jefferson, a rookie wide receiver who the Vikings selected 22nd overall with a draft pick acquired from the Bills in a trade for Stefon Diggs, who was growing upset with being the 1b receiver on a run heavy team and was consequently traded.

The common opinion is that both teams won that trade because both Jefferson and Diggs had incredible seasons in 2020, but that ignores the key factors of age and salary. Diggs certainly isn’t over the hill, now heading into his age 28 season, but he had 55.5 million over 4 years remaining on his contract when acquired, while Jefferson, who is still only going into his age 22 season, is on a rookie deal that will pay him just 13.123 million over the first 4 seasons. Diggs led the league in receiving in his first season in Buffalo and posted a 127/1535/8 slash line overall, but Jefferson finished 4th with a 88/1400/7 slash line, despite playing on a run-heavier team and not breaking into the starting lineup until week 3. 

In all, Diggs received 41 more targets than Jefferson and averaged 1.95 yards per target fewer. Yards per route run also showed Jefferson to be the more efficient player, as he ranked 2nd at 2.66, while Diggs ranked 6th at 2.51. Jefferson also had the slight edge in overall grade on PFF, ranking 2nd while Diggs ranked 4th. It’s not as if the Bills lost the trade because Diggs was exactly what their offense needed and we don’t know if they would have selected Jefferson had they not traded the pick, but the Vikings got a comparably good player who is 6 years younger and a fraction of the cost, so they clearly did better for themselves in the deal. Jefferson might not be quite as efficient as he was last season in every season of his career, but it looks obvious that he is going to be one of the best receivers in the league for years to come.

Adam Thielen kind of got lost in Justin Jefferson’s shadow, but also had a solid season himself, finishing with a 74/925/14 slash line on 108 targets, ranking 3rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns, averaging 1.86 yards per route run, and earning PFF’s 6th highest grade for a wide receiver. Thielen had his 2019 season derailed by injury, but this level of production has become expected from Thielen when healthy, as he’s averaged a 88/1153/8 slash line per 16 games, excluding 2019, and has otherwise missed just 1 game due to injury. He’s also finished in the top-20 among wide receivers on PFF in each of his last four healthy seasons, including three straight healthy seasons in the top-8. 

Now going into his age 31 season, it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise to see Thielen slow down over the next few years and, either way, he looks likely to take a backseat to Jefferson going forward and operate more as a true #2 receiver. As a #2 receiver, he’s one of the best in the league, even if he’s unlikely to maintain last year’s touchdown rate regardless of whether or not he drops off. Even if Thielen isn’t quite as good as he’s been, he and Jefferson should remain one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL.

With a wide receiver duo this good and a talented pass catching back in Dalvin Cook, on a team that is more run heavy than pass heavy, there isn’t a lot of opportunity for other pass catchers in this offense. Tight end Kyle Rudolph, who had been with the team since being selected in the 2nd round in 2011, was disappointed with his role, receiving just 37 targets in 12 games last season, and consequently asked for his release when requested to take a paycut. Rudolph has been a solid player for this team for a long time, but he wasn’t worth his 8.8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary to play a part-time role in what would have been his age 32 season.

Rudolph’s release should free up more playing time for third year tight end Irv Smith, a 2019 2nd round pick who has been splitting playing time with Rudolph since entering the league. Smith has posted slash lines of 36/311/2 on 47 targets and 30/365/4 on 43 targets in two seasons in the league and I would expect a significant increase on that in his 3rd season in the league, as a good portion of the 42.5 targets per season that Rudolph received in 2019-2020 will now be going Smith’s way. He comes with significantly more pass catching upside than the veteran Rudolph, although his blocking still needs some improvement.

Along with Smith’s blocking, the other concern at tight end is their lack of depth. 2018 5th round pick Tyler Conklin is tentatively penciled in as the #2 tight end and should see a significant role in two tight end sets on a team that uses them with above average frequency, but he’s struggled throughout his career on just 869 career snaps, struggling both as a blocker and a receiver (32 career catches in 47 games). He could be a little better by default in 2021, but with only him behind Smith on the depth chart, the Vikings tight end depth is very suspect.

At wide receiver, the Vikings didn’t have another wide receiver aside from Jefferson and Thielen with more than 30 targets and, in all, other Vikings wide receivers saw a total of just 49 passes thrown their way. That number may come up a little bit in 2021, but with the other pass options available on an otherwise run based offense, there just isn’t a lot of opportunity for other wide receivers in this offense, not to mention the fact that the Vikings really lack depth at the position behind Thielen and Jefferson. 

Chad Beebe and Bisi Johnson split the #3 receiver role last season, playing 314 snaps and 239 snaps respectively, but neither showed much. Neither has a history of success either, as Beebe is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had played 89 career snaps prior to last season, while Johnson is a 2019 7th round pick who saw more playing time as a rookie when Thielen was out (538 snaps played), but hardly did anything with the opportunity, finishing with a 31/294/3 slash line. 

The Vikings used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on the position, taking a player in Ihmir Smith-Marsette who could have gone in the 3rd round and could prove to be a steal, but that’s not a guarantee he’ll contribute as a rookie, even if he probably has the most upside of the Vikings’ options for the #3 receiver job. Regardless of who wins the job, the Vikings badly need both Thielen and Jefferson to stay healthy, as this is a very top heavy receiving corps that lacks depth. All of the pieces are in place for the Vikings to have a dominant offensive season, but they might not be as lucky injury wise as they were last season and lack depth at a couple key spots.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Vikings might not be quite as lucky injury wise on offense, they will almost definitely have better injury luck on defense, where the absence of several key players for extended periods of time sunk this defense to among the worst in the league. It’s not hard to see how they could be significantly improved on this side of the ball if they can stay relatively healthy. Arguably their biggest injury absence was edge defender Danielle Hunter, who went down for the season before the season even began.

Hunter was one of the best defensive linemen in the league in 2019, finishing as PFF’s 7th ranked edge defender and totaling 14.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate, so it’s hard to understate how big his absence was. The Vikings attempted to replace Hunter by trading a 2nd round pick to the Jaguars for the franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue, but Ngakoue was only a middling player in 6 games and, with a tough start and some bad luck close losses leading to a 1-5 start, the Vikings cut their losses and sent Ngakoue to the Ravens for a third round pick. Without him, the Vikings didn’t have another edge defender who finished the season with more than 3.5 sacks.

Prior to the injury, Hunter had been one of the best pass rushers in the league throughout his career, totaling 54.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 94 career games. It took him a couple years to develop against the run and become a complete player, but he had developed into one of the most complete players in the league at his position. A return to form for Hunter is not guaranteed given the severity of his injury, but prior to the injury, he was as dependable as they come, missing just 2 games in his first 5 seasons in the league, including 48 straight starts from 2017-2019, and he’s only going into his age 27 season, so Hunter’s chances of bouncing back would seem to be better than most. Even if he’s not quite as good as he was in 2019, Hunter’s return to the lineup would be a huge boost for this defense.

The other spot opposite Hunter is still a question mark though. Ifeadi Odenigbo, who led this group with 696 snaps played and 3.5 sacks last season, signed with the Giants this off-season and, while he won’t be hard to replace, the Vikings didn’t add a clear upgrade. Veteran Stephen Weatherly, added in free agency, is the most likely option to start, now actually in his second stint with the team. Drafted by the Vikings in the 7th round in 2016, Weatherly spent his first four seasons in Minnesota before spending last season with the Panthers, but he struggled in Carolina, finishing 107th out of 119 eligible edge defenders on PFF and not recording a sack on 358 snaps in 9 games, and he was subsequently cut 1 year and 6.65 million into a 2-year, 12.5 million dollar deal.

Weatherly returns to Minnesota on a cheap one-year deal worth just 2.5 million, but he doesn’t come with much bounce back potential because he didn’t play all that well with the Vikings either, most recently finishing 113th out of 121 eligible edge defenders on 422 snaps in 2019. All in all, he’s totaled just 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 58 career games and hasn’t been much better against the run.

Weatherly will probably be the week one starter by default, but third round rookie Patrick Jones has the most upside of the bunch and could easily be a starter by season’s end, as part of what looks like a very strong draft class overall. 4th round rookie Janarius Robinson isn’t as exciting of a prospect, but I wouldn’t rule out him having a role as a rookie. DJ Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes, recent 4th round picks in 2020 and 2018 respectively, will also probably be in the mix for snaps, but both struggled on 471 snaps and 617 snaps respectively. 

Wonnum has a little more upside of the two, still only in his 2nd season in the league, but Holmes has struggled throughout his career on 748 total career snaps, most noticeably struggling as a pass rusher with just 1 career sack and a miniscule 5.0% pressure rate, and he doesn’t seem like he’s about to turn a corner and develop into a useful contributor. The Vikings will need Danielle Hunter to be something close to his top form because of their lack of other reliable options at the position, but getting anything from Hunter by default should make this group better than it was a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

It wasn’t as big of a loss as Danielle Hunter, but the Vikings also had a key defensive tackle whose season was over before it started, as free agent acquisition Michael Pierce, who the Vikings signed last off-season for 27 million over 3 years, opted out of the season for medical reasons. Pierce will be back in 2021 and the Vikings used some of what limited financial flexibility they had to sign free agent Dalvin Tomlinson to a 2-year, 21 million dollar deal to start opposite Pierce, so after Shamar Stephen (662 snaps), Jaleel Johnson (654 snaps), and Armon Watts (392 snaps) all earned middling or worse grades from PFF as the team’s leaders in snaps played among defensive tackles, the Vikings should be in much better shape at the position this season.

Prior to his opt out, Pierce was one of the best pure run stuffing defensive tackles in the league. He had a bit of a down year in 2019 due to injury, but he finished in the top-14 among interior defenders in run stopping grade in three straight seasons from 2016-2018, including a career best 4th ranked finish in 2018, and even if that was a couple years ago, he’s still theoretically in his prime in his age 29 season. 

Pierce is not much of a pass rusher and he’s never topped 594 snaps in a season as primarily a base package player throughout his career, but his 6.9% pressure rate is better than you’d expect from a 340 pounder. He’s a risky projection because of the full missed season, but he should be able to give this defensive line a big boost against the run, even if he isn’t as good as he was at his best.

Tomlinson also is a better run stuffer than pass rusher, but he’s a more complete player and a much less risky projection, having played all 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the league and only going into his age 27 season. A 2nd round pick by the Giants in 2017, Tomlinson has finished in the top-31 among interior defenders on PFF in all 4 seasons in the league, with his best season coming in 2019, when he was PFF’s 14th highest ranked interior defender against the run. 

Tomlinson only has a career 6.0% pressure rate with 8 career sacks, but he took a big step forward as a pass rusher last season with 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate. Even if he can’t quite continue that level of pass rush productivity, he should be a plug and play above average starter for this team based off of his ability against the run and his history of consistently and durability.

Depth is still a concern at the position though, especially since both Tomlinson and Pierce are likely to come off the field in many passing situations. Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson, who were the de facto starters last season, are no longer with the team and, while neither played well in their extended action, they could be valuable reserves and the Vikings are now left with fewer options behind their new starters. 

Armon Watts is still around, but he didn’t show much on 392 snaps and the same was true for him as a rookie in 2019, when the 6th round pick played just 121 snaps. James Lynch, who the Vikings selected in the 4th round in 2020, could see a bigger role in his second season in the league, but it’s hard to expect too much from him if he couldn’t get on the field for more than 59 snaps in a weak position group as a rookie. The Vikings used a 6th round pick in this past draft on Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Twyman, who could have easily gone in the 3rd or 4th round and who easily could prove to be a steal, but that doesn’t ensure he’ll be able to contribute in any meaningful way as a rookie. Pierce and Tomlinson are a solid starting duo, but depth remains a concern at this position. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Vikings also had injury issues in their linebacking corps, with their two talented every down linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr both missing extended action with injury. Barr went down for the season week 2 after just 94 snaps played on the season, while Kendricks missed the final 5 games of the season, which coincided with this defense bottoming out at the end of the season. On top of that, the Vikings tried to improve their depth at linebacker this off-season, using a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Chazz Surratt and signing veteran Nick Vigil in free agency. 

Eric Wilson (1,034 snaps) and Todd Davis (201 snaps), who struggled in significant action last season, are no longer with the team and, while Troy Dye (281 snaps) is still around, he’s a 2020 4th round pick who could still develop long-term and it doesn’t look like he’ll be any higher than the 5th linebacker on the depth chart, with Kendricks and Barr retaining their every down roles and Surratt and Vigil likely to compete for the third linebacker spot.

Kendricks has only played all 16 games once in 6 seasons in the league, but last season was also the first time he had ever missed more than 2 games in a season and, prior to going down with injury, he had been one of the best linebackers in the league over the past two seasons, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s 1st ranked off ball linebacker and ranking 4th at his position in 2020 at the time he got hurt. 

Kendricks had never played at that level prior to 2019, but he’s been a consistent starter since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2015 (81 career starts) and he has taken his game to another level over the past two seasons. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect him to regress this season and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he has been over the past two seasons, he should still be one of the best every down middle linebackers in the league. 

Barr isn’t quite as good, as the 3rd ranked season on PFF among off ball linebackers that he had in 2015 stands out as a huge outlier in his 7-year career, but he’s also earned an above average grade for his play in all but one healthy season as a starter and, prior to last season, he had only missed 11 games in 6 seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2014, Barr has started all 87 career games he’s played, playing an average of 61.9 snaps per game, showing ability in coverage, against the run, and as a pass rusher (15 sacks, 28 hits, and 18.6% pressure rate on an average of 7.6 pass rush snaps per game). Still only in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect any sort of significant drop off from him this season.

At the third linebacker spot, the veteran Vigil may be the favorite to start week one, but the Vikings are probably hoping Chazz Surratt can win the job at some point. Not only does Surratt have the higher long-term upside, but it wouldn’t take much for him to be a short-term upgrade, as Vigil has never earned more than a middling grade from PFF in 5 seasons in the league. He has plenty of experience, playing 2,839 snaps in 5 seasons in the league, but he’s mostly just shown himself to have a limited ceiling as a player. Even if he does win the job, the third linebacker comes off the field in sub packages for a 5th defensive back, so Vigil is unlikely to exceed the 312 snaps he played last season regardless. This has the potential to be a strong group thanks to the return of Kendricks and Barr and the addition of Surratt as a high upside young option.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Vikings also had a key player miss time with injury in the secondary as third round rookie Cameron Dantzler, who was their best cornerback when healthy, missed 5 games. When on the field, Dantzler played 601 snaps and made 10 starts in 11 games, while finishing as PFF’s 28th highest grade for a cornerback. Even with the time missed due to injury, Dantzler showed himself to have a bright future and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in a full season in 2021, though that’s not necessarily a given.

Dantzler was one of three cornerbacks the Vikings drafted last off-season, along with 1st round pick Jeff Gladney and 5th round pick Harrison Hand. Neither Gladney nor Hand has nearly as bright of a future as Dantzler though. Gladney struggled as a rookie, finishing as PFF’s 110th ranked cornerback out of 136 eligible in 15 starts and, while he would have been a strong candidate for a second year leap, he was arrested this off-season on serious charges that could end his career if proven true. In the short-term, Gladney’s status for the start and all of the 2021 season are very much in doubt. Hand, meanwhile, played just 163 nondescript snaps as a rookie and is a projection to a larger role, if he can even earn one.

Fortunately, the Vikings did sign Patrick Peterson in free agency, even before the news broke about Gladney, one of two big free agent signings they made this off-season. Peterson was once one of the best cornerbacks in the league and, while he seems past his prime, going into his age 31 season off of back-to-back middling seasons, he should still be a capable starter and a stabilizing veteran presence for a Vikings team that needed one even before Gladney’s arrest. His deal is only for one season and may prove to be an overpay at 8 million, given the depressed market overall this off-season, but he’ll fill a big hole as the starter opposite Dantzler.

The Vikings also brought in another two veteran cornerbacks in free agency, ex-Chiefs Bashaud Breeland and a familiar face in Mackensie Alexander, a 2016 second round pick who spent the first four seasons of his career in Minnesota before playing for the Bengals in 2020 on a one-year, 4 million dollar deal. Alexander wasn’t bad on a career high 642 snaps for the Bengals last season and has proven himself as a capable 3rd and 4th cornerback for the Vikings in the past, so he could prove to be a great value on a deal that barely pays him over a million for a season to return to Minnesota.

Breeland, meanwhile, has been a starter for most of his 7-year career, starting 88 of 94 career games and, while he’s been somewhat inconsistent, he’s generally been a solid starter with the exception of a couple seasons. One of those exceptions was 2019, when he finished 122nd among 135 eligible cornerbacks across 912 snaps with the Chiefs, but he bounced back well in 2020, finishing 36th among cornerbacks across 690 snaps, the 2nd best finish of his career behind his 21st ranked 2015 season. He’s not the most reliable player, but he’s a good cheap option for this team to add at a position of need. The addition of Alexander and Breeland ensures the Vikings won’t need to rely on Gladney for a big role in 2021 and the Vikings also used a 4th round pick on Camryn Bynum, who could have easily gone a round earlier.

At safety, the Vikings lost Anthony Harris to the Eagles on a one-year, 4 million dollar deal, but Harris had a down year in 2020, finishing 38th among eligible safeties on PFF, after finishing 5th and 3rd in 2018 and 2019 respectively, so he might not really be missed, especially since the Vikings did a great job of replacing him with former Cowboys safety Xavier Woods on a one-year deal worth just 1.75 million.

Woods had a down year with the Cowboys last season as just about everyone on that defense did, but he still earned about a middling grade from PFF, after earning above average grades in each of his first 3 seasons in the league prior to last season, including a career best 28th in 2019. A mere 6th round pick in 2017, Woods has already started 48 games and is only going into his age 26 season. He could prove to be one of the biggest steals of the off-season in the likely event he bounces back to his pre-2020 form, now away from that horrible Dallas defensive scheme. 

Woods will start opposite Harrison Smith, a mainstay on this defense who stood out as their best defensive player throughout last season. Smith may be slowing down a little bit, as he is going into his age 32 season now and his 15th ranked finish among safeties on PFF last season was his 2nd lowest since 2014, but that is just a reminder of how good he has been over the years. At his best, he’s finished in the top-5 among safeties on PFF 4 times in his 9-year career. Even if he continues to slow down, he should remain a solid starter at least for another couple seasons. The Vikings’ safety depth is suspect, but the rookie Camryn Bynum could potentially move to safety if needed and overall this is a solid secondary on what looks like a much improved defensive unit.

Grade: B+

Kicker/Punter

The Vikings were one of the worst special teams in the league last season, finishing 31st in special teams DVOA. They had a lot of problems, but their worst spot was kicker, with Dan Bailey finishing dead last among kickers on PFF, making just 86.0% of his extra points and 68.2% of his field goals, including just 9/16 on field goals from 30+ yards. Bailey is gone and the Vikings will almost definitely have a better kicking situation by default, but they still don’t have a reliable kicker, with veteran Greg Joseph and undrafted rookie Riley Patterson set to compete for the starting job.

Joseph was the Browns’ kicker in 2018, but he finished 32nd among 36 eligible kickers on PFF, going 25/29 on extra points and 17/20 on field goals, with a long of just 51 yards. He made all 9 extra points for the Titans in two games last season, but didn’t attempt a field goal and doesn’t have an impressive track record from his collegiate days, making just 69.5% of his field goals in college, including just 2/6 from 50+ yards. He probably won’t be as bad as Bailey was in 2020, but he figures to struggle if he wins the job.

The same is true of Patterson, who was only had a slightly more impressive collegiate career than Joseph and was never a real candidate to be drafted, after making 77.1% of his collegiate field goals, including just 68.2% in his senior year, and 9/18 on 50+ yard field goals as a 4-year starter. He might be the better option by default, but it’s up for grabs who wins this job. Bailey also struggled on kickoffs last season, but it’s unclear if his replacement will be any better in 2021. A big part of their kickoff issues can be attributed to their supporting cast, which the Vikings also needed to upgrade significantly this off-season.

The Vikings also had big problems in the punting game last season, in part because of that supporting cast, but also because of punter Britton Colquitt, who finished 35th among 40 eligible punters on PFF. The Vikings didn’t add any competition for Colquitt this off-season, but last season was the worst season of the 12-year veteran’s career and, only in his age 36 season, which is still relatively young for a punter, he has a good chance to bounce back in 2021. Even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2019 when he was PFF’s 4th ranked punter, he should be better in 2021, which will definitely benefit this team. The Vikings still have concerns at kicker, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to get better play from both the kicker and punter spot in 2021.

Grade: C+

Return Specialists

The one area where the Vikings did not finish below average in DVOA last season was their kickoff return unit, which barely scored a positive mark. Ameer Abdullah (23.5 yards per on 15 returns) and KJ Osburn (21.6 yards per on 14 returns) were their primary kickoff returners and will face competition for the job from 4th round rookie running back Kene Nwangwu and 5th round wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who averaged 28.7 yards per return and two touchdowns on 53 returns and 26.8 yards per return and 1 touchdown on 92 returns respectively as collegiate returners.

Osburn also returned punts last season, but struggled in that aspect, as did the rest of the team, which combined to average 4.3 yards per return on 16 punt returns. Chad Beebe was their other primary punt returner along with Osburn, but he has just a 5.5 yards per return average for his career. Neither of the Vikings rookie kickoff returners have punt return experience, but fortunately, the Vikings did add Dede Westbrook in free agency and he has a career 9.8 yards per punt average across 47 returns with a touchdown in his career. He seems likely to win the punt return job over Beebe and Osburn. Like at kicker and punter, the Vikings could easily get better play from the kickoff and punt return spot in 2021.

Grade: B

Special Teamers

Even if the Vikings get better play out of their kicker, punter, and returners, they will still need to get better play out of their supporting special teamers to be significantly improved on special teams in 2021. The Vikings had some special teamers who were solid overall players last season, but they didn’t have a single player who saw more than 150 snaps and finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and they had some other players who were clear weaknesses. 

They added Nick Vigil in free agency and he had a better season than any Vikings special teamer did a year ago, finishing 63rd among special teamers on PFF across 211 snaps, but he has an inconsistent history and might only prove to be a replacement for Hardy Nickerson, a solid, but unspectacular player across 229 snaps last season, who is no longer with the team. The Vikings also added Mike Boone, who played 230 snaps on special teams last season, but he struggled, so he could be addition by subtraction. 

Aside from that, the Vikings’ other big move this off-season was letting go of special teams coordinator Marwan Maalouf and replacing him with long-time assistant Sam Ficken. Normally shaking up leadership after a terrible special teams year is a good idea, but it’s not a guarantee they’ll be significantly better in 2021. Josh Metellus (257 snaps), Tyler Conklin (186 snaps), Harrison Hand (144 snaps), Ryan Connelly (196 snaps), Dan Chisena (255 snaps), and CJ Ham (215 snaps) are their best returning special teamers were a year ago, but only Ham is proven over more than one season, with the others coming off the best seasons of their career and likely to not all be as good again in 2021.

Meanwhile, Ameer Abdullah (250 snaps), Troy Dye (141 snaps), Olabisi Johnson (119 snaps), and Kris Boyd (116 snaps) all struggled last season and don’t have any history of success, so they would likely struggle again in a significant role. This group might not be that bad this season, especially if they benefit from new coaching and contributions from their rookie class, but they will likely hold this group back from being significantly improved even with other upgrades elsewhere. I wouldn’t expect this to be a terrible special teams unit again in 2021, but I would guess they would be below average.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings went just 7-9 last season, but injuries and bad special teams were a big part of the problem and both of those things should be better in 2021 due to sheer regression to the mean. They were in a tough situation this off-season from a financial flexibility situation, but they made the most of the resources they had, including a draft class that looks like it could potentially be one of the most impactful in the league in year one. 

With a potentially dominant offense and defensive and special teams units that look likely to be better after being among the worst in the league last season, the Vikings should be in playoff contention in the NFC and, with uncertainty in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers’ long-term situation, Minnesota could easily sneak in and win the division, with both Chicago and Detroit both having a less promising outlook. I will have a final prediction for the Vikings at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: Special teams is more predictive than I thought, which isn’t a good thing for the Vikings, but they should be better on special teams this season, even if it remains a weakness, and they’ve done a great job of shoring up weaknesses on the rest of this roster, adding Dede Westbrook to be the #3 receiver, Sheldon Richardson to give more depth at the interior defense spot, and Bashaud Breeland to give them another veteran cornerback. They could play well enough on both sides of the ball to contend despite underwhelming special teams play.

9/4/21: Irv Smith’s injury hurts this offense a little, as their projected starting tight end is expected to miss the entire season, but left tackle Christian Darrisaw’s injury seems less concerning than originally expected, with the left tackle avoiding injured reserve to begin the season, while their defense has counted to add valuable veteran pieces with the re-addition of Everson Griffen, who spent 2010-2019 with the Vikings and could still have some juice left as a situational pass rusher. The Vikings’ offense might not be quite as good as a year ago, but their starting from a high base point, while their defense seems likely to be significantly improved due to better depth and health. With the Packers likely to take a small step back, the Vikings are a value bet to win the NFC North.

Prediction: 11-6 1st in NFC North

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

During the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chiefs made a bold decision that would redefine their franchise for years to come. With a team stuck in good, but not good enough mode, posting five straight winning seasons and making the post-season in four of those seasons, but only managing just one playoff win, the Chiefs decided the best way to upgrade their team was not to use their first round pick on a needed starter on defense, but to package that pick together with a future first round pick to move up to 10th overall to select promising, but raw quarterback Patrick Mahomes to give them a higher upside option under center long-term, with incumbent veteran Alex Smith personifying the good, but not good enough nature of this team.

It could have easily backfired given how much they were giving up to replace a serviceable starter with an unproven commodity and Mahomes didn’t see any meaningful action at all as a rookie, but Smith was traded after the 2017 season and Mahomes instantly became one of the best and most successful quarterbacks in the league. In his first season as a starter, he became just the 2nd quarterback in NFL history to have 5,000 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns in the same season, winning the MVP for his efforts. 

His Chiefs came up just short in the 2018 AFC Championship, but it was still a remarkable finish for this team to win 12 games and make a conference championship with a defense that ranked dead last in the NFL in first down rate allowed, a testament to the effectiveness of Mahomes and the Chiefs’ league best offense. In 2019, the Chiefs fell to 3rd in first down rate, but that was only because Mahomes missed two and a half games with a knee injury and upon his return he played probably the best stretch of football of his career, leading this team all the way to a Super Bowl victory this time, now supported by a defense pulling its weight by ranking 20th in first down rate allowed.

The 2020 season started as more of the same of 2019, but that changed as the season went on. However, that wasn’t really noticeable because the Chiefs kept winning, just by a lot less, with their final 7 regular season wins coming by 6 points or fewer. The Chiefs finished at 14-2 and with the #1 overall seed in the AFC, despite losing a meaningless week 17 game when their starters didn’t play, but they finished the season just 5th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential and their record was largely the result of a 8-1 record in one score games.

It may seem like an elite quarterback like Mahomes could consistently win a high percentage of one score games, but most elite quarterbacks are unable to do so for an extended period of time, including Mahomes himself, who was just 9-8 in one score games in the first two seasons of his career, so it was concerning to see the Chiefs’ margin of victory (which was 14.4 points per game in Mahomes’ starts prior to the second half of 2020) drop off so drastically. It was especially concerning because there was an obvious culprit, with stud right tackle Mitchell Schwartz going down for the season with injury week 6.

The Chiefs’ offensive line problems became even worse when Schwartz’s counterpart, talented left tackle Eric Fisher, tore his achilles in the AFC Championship. With guard Kelechi Osemele also out for the season, the Chiefs headed into the Super Bowl without their top-3 offensive linemen and it was glaringly obvious, with Mahomes on the run for most of a blowout 31-9 loss, being pressured on a ridiculous 55.4% of his dropbacks, while nursing a toe injury of his own that eventually required off-season surgery.

Simply put, Mahomes is a generational quarterback, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 8.39 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in his first 3 seasons as a starter. However, even generational quarterbacks need the right pieces around them to win Super Bowls, as evidenced by poor defense doing the Chiefs in during 2018 and a poor offensive line doing them in last season. Mahomes should compete for multiple MVPs over the next decade and the Chiefs should be perennial Super Bowl contenders, but quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers have shown that doesn’t always result in many actual Super Bowl victories. 

The Chiefs’ ability to surround Mahomes with talent is also about to become a lot more complicated over the next decade, with Mahomes’ record breaking 10-year, 450 million dollar extension set to kick in after this season, representing a significant increase on his cost controlled rookie deal. With salary caps set to rise over the next decade and quarterback salaries always increasing, Mahomes’ deal will probably look like a relative steal in a few years, but there’s no denying that any way the Chiefs structure and restructure it, Mahomes is going to count for a significant portion of their cap for the next decade, some years more than others. 

In the salary cap era, just 7 of 27 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks accounted for more than 10% of their team’s cap and none have accounted for more than 14%. All of those Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are current or likely future Hall of Famers, with Eli Manning standing out as a possible exception in a group that includes Steve Young, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, so, in that sense, the Chiefs paying that kind of money to Mahomes is a lot more justifiable than teams giving slightly less money to significantly lesser quarterbacks, but it goes to show how difficult it is to build a Super Bowl caliber roster when your quarterback takes up such a large percentage of the cap. The Chiefs should remain contenders in 2021, but I wouldn’t consider them favorites necessarily and certainly not clear favorites, despite their incredible starting quarterback.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was obviously in bad shape after the Super Bowl and things looked to be getting worse when the Chiefs cut both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, their injured long-term starting offensive tackles, but that proved to be part of a larger plan. The Chiefs saved 18.255 million in cap space by moving on from a pair of players over 30 and coming off of serious injuries and they then used most of their newly found cap space to sign top free agent guard Joe Thuney, who is going into his age 28 season and hasn’t missed a start in 5 seasons in the league. 

A 3rd round pick by the Patriots in 2016, Thuney has developed into one of the best guards in the league. After a solid rookie year, Thuney took a big step forward in his second season in the league and has finished in the top-14 among guards on PFF in all 4 seasons since, with his best season coming in a 5th ranked finish in 2019. As reliable as they come and still in the prime of his career, there is no reason to expect anything different from Thuney in 2021.

The Chiefs also re-signed Mike Remmers, an unspectacular, but serviceable starter who mostly held up as an injury replacement in 10 starts (9 at right tackle) last season, bringing him back on a 1-year, 3.3 million dollar deal. They also signed free agent center Austin Blythe and recently unretired Kyle Long to one-year deals worth 1 million and 1.5 million respectively. With Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who made 57 starts at right guard for the Chiefs from 2015-2019, also set to return after opting out of the 2020 season, the Chiefs seemed set at every position except for left tackle ahead of the draft. 

However, instead of drafting a left tackle as most expected, they swung a surprisingly pre-draft trade for Orlando Brown of the Ravens, in a swap of picks that saw the Chiefs send their first round pick to Baltimore. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Brown is still on his rookie deal, so it wasn’t hard for the Chiefs to fit his 3.384 million dollar salary under the cap, but he’s heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants top left tackle money, which is why Baltimore decided to move on and get a significant draft pick haul while they could.

It makes for a complicated situation in the long-term because the Chiefs won’t want to let Brown leave for nothing after giving up a first round pick for him, but he’s yet to prove himself as a top left tackle, never finishing higher than 26th on PFF in a single season and playing better on the right side, where he made the first 32 starts of his career, than the left side, where he made the final 10 starts of last season in the absence of the injured Ronnie Stanley. Still, in the short-term, he’s an obvious upgrade for a team previously lacking a reliable left tackle and, only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible he’s still capable of a higher level that he hasn’t shown yet.

After trading their first round pick for Brown, the Chiefs also added Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round for good measure, so an offensive line that once was a huge concern now looks like a strong group. Humphrey could potentially play guard as well, but he’s most likely to see action for the Chiefs at center, where he’ll compete with veteran free agent acquisition Austin Blythe, who can also play some guard. 

Guard is actually where Blythe had the best season of his career, finishing 10th among guards on PFF in 2018 in 16 starts, but he struggled mightily at the position to begin the 2019 season and was subsequently moved to center, where he fared better. He then continued that into 2020, when he finished 13th among centers on PFF. The 2016 7th round pick is a capable starting center, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pushed for his job by the rookie Humphrey.

Left tackle Orlando Brown and left guard Joe Thuney are the only ones locked into a role on this offensive line. Humphrey and Blythe are competing at center and could play guard if needed, but most likely they won’t be needed to. Not only is Thuney locked in on one side, but Long, Duvernay-Tardif, and Remmers are likely to compete for the right guard and right tackle spots, leaving Humphrey and Blythe as primarily options at center. 

Duvernay-Tardif is the only one of that aforementioned trio who likely isn’t an option to start at right tackle, with all of his career starts coming at right guard, but he might also be the most likely to secure a starting role, having made 57 starts for the Chiefs in the 5 seasons prior to opting out of last season. His best days are likely behind him though, as he struggled in 2019, earning the first below average grade from PFF of his career, after an injury plagued 2018 season in which he was limited to just 331 snaps. Now after a year off, Duvernay-Tardif is going into his age 30 season and is a shakier starting option than he was just a few years ago.

Long is also a shaky starting option, as he basically opted out of the 2020 season, retiring for a year after an injury plagued previous 4 seasons from 2016-2019, a stretch in which he made just 29 starts. Long had earned an average or better grade from PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league after being drafted in the 1st round by the Bears in 2015, but by the end of his injury plagued stretch, Long was a shell of his former self, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s worst ranked guard on 250 snaps, leading to his temporary retirement. 

Long could be better this season, but only by default, as his best days are clearly behind him, now in his age 33 season. He’s not a bad option to have because he can play both right guard and right tackle and he didn’t cost the Chiefs all that much, but he would be tough to rely on as a starter. He’s also been significantly better at right guard than right tackle in his career, so, in order to be a starter, he would either have to displace the long-time starting Duvernay-Tardif or play out of position at right tackle.

Mike Remmers is probably the favorite to start at right tackle, where he wasn’t bad in Mitchell Schwartz’s absence last season, before the post-season. Remmers is experienced with 88 career starts (70 at tackle, 18 at guard) and has earned an average or better grade from PFF in all 7 seasons as a starter in his career, but he’s also never finished higher than 34th at his position and his age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season. He could remain a capable starter in 2021, but he doesn’t come with much upside and it’s good the Chiefs have insurance for him. 

Overall, this is a deep and talented offensive line with seven starting options and they have good versatility as well, with multiple players having experience at multiple positions. They’re well positioned to have solid or better offensive line play this season, even when injuries inevitably hit. Early season continuity may be a concern with a unit consistently of mostly off-season additions, but they’ve done a great job re-tooling this offensive line on the fly this off-season, without significant financial flexibility.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

While the Chiefs did a good job of retooling the offensive line, it came at the expense of some other needs, including wide receiver. That’s not to say that the Chiefs weren’t smart to prioritize the offensive line, but it’s the reality for a team that will be working with increasingly fewer resources over the next few off-seasons. Sammy Watkins, who was their #2 receiver when healthy over the past three seasons, signed with the Ravens in free agency and the Chiefs didn’t replace him and instead will rely on inexperienced players like Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and possibly 5th round rookie Cornell Powell. 

Given that, the Chiefs figure to once again give heavy target shares to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, who were targeted on a whopping 280 of Mahomes’ 588 regular season pass attempts last season, 47.6%, a number that could even increase this season with Watkins gone. Both Hill and Kelce are dynamic players who are among the best at their position, but the lack of a reliable third option is a concern and would especially become a concern if either Hill or Kelce were to miss time with injury.

Kelce hasn’t missed a game with injury since his rookie season in 2013, but that’s not a guarantee he stays healthy all season this year, especially with his age creeping up, now in his age 32 season. Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down, in fact posting a career best 105/1416/11 slash line last season, despite sitting out the Chiefs’ meaningless regular season finale. He has overall averaged a 102/1327/9 slash line in 3 seasons with Mahomes, a jump from an already impressive 77/975/6 average slash line in 4 seasons with Alex Smith, while finishing in the top-4 among tight ends on PFF in 5 straight seasons and 6 seasons overall. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his decline begin this season, given his age. 

Even if he’s not quite at his best, Kelce would still be one of the top few tight ends in the league, but it’s something to keep in mind, especially in a top heavy receiving corps that severely lacks tight end depth. Nick Keizer was 2nd on the team in tight end snaps with 302, but the 2018 undrafted free agent finished 80th out of 82 eligible tight ends on PFF in the first action of his career. Fellow 2018 undrafted free agent Deon Yelder played 194 snaps last season, but he’s been underwhelming across just 242 career snaps. 

The Chiefs also brought back Blake Bell, who finished 63rd out of 71 eligible tight ends as the Chiefs’ #2 tight end in 2019, before spending the 2020 season in Dallas. He has some experience, but he has never topped 398 snaps in a season or earned an above average grade in a season from PFF and now he heads into his age 30 season. The Chiefs desperately need Kelce to continue to stay healthy and to not decline significantly.

Top wide receiver Tyreek Hill has more of a recent injury history than Kelce, but he’s still only missed 5 games with injury in 5 seasons in the league and he also remains very much in his prime in only his age 27 season. Off-the-field concerns caused Hill to fall to the 5th round in 2016, but he flashed in part-time action as a rookie and has broken out as a #1 wide receiver in the four seasons since, posting a 75/1183/7 slash line in 15 games with Alex Smith in 2017 and averaging a 86/1345/13 slash line per 16 games in 3 seasons since Mahomes became the starter, serving as the perfect deep threat complement to the big armed Mahomes. Even including his rookie season, Hill has averaged at least 2.16 yards per route run and finished in the top-17 among wide receivers on PFF in all 5 seasons in the league, making him among the most consistent #1 wide receivers in the league. I see no reason for that to change in 2021.

Of the Chiefs’ inexperienced pass catchers, Mecole Hardman has by far the best chance to breakout in a bigger role. A 2nd round pick in 2019 who profiled almost identically to Hill as a prospect aside from the off-the-field concerns, Hardman has yet to surpass 500 snaps in a season, but he’s shown promise with an average of 1.73 yards per route run and 16.4 yards per catch and, with the #2 wide receiver job in this explosive offense seemingly his to lose, he could easily break out with an impressive statistical year in his third season in the league. He may end up being one of those players whose raw stats are more impressive than his actual play, as someone who could get a big target share in an explosive offense that takes a lot of deep shots, but you could do worse as a #2 wide receiver and he comes with plenty of upside.

Even if Hardman can step up as the #2 wide receiver, their depth behind him is pretty suspect. DeMarcus Robinson has gotten opportunity, as the 2016 4th round pick has averaged 426 routes run per season over the past 4 years, but he’s earned a below average grade from PFF in every season and has managed just 0.90 yards per route run in his career, despite incredible quarterback play. 2018 undrafted free agent Byron Pringle is the other realistic candidate for the #3 receiver job because the Chiefs seem to like him, but he’s barely played in his career, totaling just 383 snaps and his 1.46 yards per route run average is nothing to write home about either. This is a talented, but top heavy receiving corps that can’t afford an injury to their top-2 guys.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Chiefs also lack depth at the running back position and instead seem likely to rely on 2020 1st round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a larger capacity in his second season in the league. Edwards-Helaire was originally drafted to work in tandem with veteran Damien Williams, but he opted out of the 2020 season, leaving inexperienced 2018 undrafted free agent Darrel Williams as the #2 running back, at least until the Chiefs were able to sign veteran Le’Veon Bell when the Jets released him mid-season. Bell ate up 63 carries and limited Edwards-Helaire to 181 carries and 36 catches, but he wasn’t retained in free agency and Damien Williams was traded to the Bears upon return from his opt out, so Darrel Williams is currently the #2 back again, despite just 93 carries in his career, and Edwards-Helaire seems primed for a larger role.

Edwards-Helaire showed himself to be a good runner as a rookie, averaging 4.44 yards per carry with a 9th ranked 56% carry success rate and, while he benefited from defenses selling out to stop the pass, he still averaged 2.98 yards per carry after contact and earned PFF’s 21st highest run grade among running backs. However, one area he will need to improve if he is going to become a true featured back is as a receiver, as he averaged just 5.50 yards per target and 1.04 yards per route run last season, despite a dominant quarterback throwing him the ball. Even if he can become a featured back in 2021, Edwards-Helaire will still probably come off the field in some passing situations for Jerick McKinnon, a veteran who comes over from the 49ers as a free agent this off-season. 

McKinnon isn’t a candidate to get more than a few carries per game, as he was a mediocre runner in 4 seasons with the Vikings (4.03 YPC on a max of 159 carries in a season) even before missing all of his first two seasons with the 49ers with leg injuries in 2018 and 2019, which continued to limit him in a 2020 season in which he averaged 3.94 YPC on 81 carries. However, he’s a capable pass catcher who had a career best 51/421/2 in his final season with the Vikings in 2017 and continued to show something with a 33/253/1 slash line last season, although his 5.50 yards per target average left something to be desired. He’s a situational pass catching back only at this stage of his career, but he could still see action in a thin backfield. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs add another cheap, capable running back to the mix at some point, given that it wouldn’t be that hard for them to do so inexpensively.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The biggest and most important need that the Chiefs didn’t address this off-season while prioritizing their offensive line is the defensive end position, where the Chiefs didn’t have a player other than Frank Clark with more than 3 sacks in the regular season. In total, the Chiefs managed just 32 sacks as a team last season, a below average total that is especially disappointing for a team that plays with many leads. That total was despite team sack leader Chris Jones being an interior pass rusher, further highlighting their issues at the edge defender position. 

Despite that, the Chiefs didn’t make a significant addition at the position aside from 4th round rookie Joshua Kaindoh and they actually lost a pair of players from last year’s group in Tanoh Kpassagnon (720 snaps) and Alex Okafor (283 snaps), who, while they didn’t play well, at least have starting experience. Kaindoh figures to have a good chance to earn a significant role as a rookie and, as of right now, it looks like 2020 5th round pick Michael Danna will be the starter opposite Clark, even though he was underwhelming in just 334 snaps as a rookie. 

The Chiefs also took a flyer on former Cowboys first round bust Taco Charlton, who has played for three different teams in just four seasons in the league and has played middling at best across an average of 322 snaps per season, including just 91 snaps last season for a Chiefs team that called him up off the practice squad mid season. Charlton isn’t that young anymore, now in his age 27 season, so it’s a long shot that he has serious untapped potential. The Chiefs will be counting on one or two of Danna, Charlton, and the rookie Kaindoh to surprise, otherwise they figure to once again get poor play at the position behind Frank Clark.

Even Frank Clark didn’t have a great season last season and, while he’s had some big post-season moments, his regular season play has been disappointing in two seasons with the Chiefs, given that the Chiefs gave up not only a first round pick to acquire him, but signed him to a 5-year, 104 million dollar deal that still ranks 6th in the NFL among edge defenders. A second round pick by the Seahawks in 2015, Clark had 32 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in his final three seasons with Seattle, but he’s seen that drop off to 14 sacks, 19 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in two seasons since joining the Chiefs, hampered by multiple nagging injuries. 

Never a particularly good run defender either, Clark hasn’t justified his salary thus far and could be entering a make or break season, owed a non-guaranteed 19.5 million in 2022 on a team that lacks long-term financial flexibility. Still only in his age 28 season, Clark is theoretically in the prime of his career and could bounce back, but that’s not a guarantee now three years removed from his career best 20th ranked finish among edge defenders on PFF in 2018. The Chiefs will need him to bounce back, at a position group that otherwise looks very thin and lacks proven players.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Chiefs are in a lot better shape on the interior. Chris Jones led the team in sacks last season and, while he had just 7.5 sacks, he added another 21 hits and a 13.6% pressure rate and he had 24.5 sacks combined in the previous 2 seasons, so last year’s relatively reduced sack total is mostly the result of bad luck and I would expect it to bounce back in 2021, with Jones still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones showed a lot of promise as a rookie and broke out as one of the top interior defensive linemen in the league in his second season in the league, finishing in the top-8 among interior defenders on PFF in 4 straight seasons since then. He’s been especially dominant as a pass rusher over the past 3 seasons with 32 sacks, 50 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate, among the best in the league by an interior rusher, and I wouldn’t expect anything different from him in 2021.

The Chiefs also bring back Derrick Nnadi, who doesn’t get much pass rush, with just 1 sack and 1 hit and a 5.2% pressure rate in 3 seasons since the Chiefs took him in the 3rd round in 2018, but who excels against the run, improving in all three seasons in the league, culminating in a 8th ranked finish in run defense grade among interior defenders. Nnadi played just 460 snaps last season as almost exclusively a base package player and he’s never topped more than 598 snaps in a season, but the Chiefs improved their depth at the position this off-season by acquiring ex-Seahawk Jarran Reed, following his release by Seattle this off-season.

Reed’s release was the result of not being worth a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, but, while he struggles against the run, he’s been an effective pass rusher over the past 4 seasons, with 20.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate, earning him middling grades overall from PFF, despite his struggles against the run, so he could be a good addition for the Chiefs at the reduced 5.5 million dollar salary they signed him at. He and Nnadi complement each other well and will likely rotate frequently depending on the situation.

Reed addition leaves Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who actually finished his rookie season 2nd on the team in interior defenders snaps slightly ahead of Nnadi with 518, with an uncertain role going forward, especially with 2019 3rd round pick Khalen Saunders set to return from an injury that limited him to just 74 snaps in 3 games last season. Wharton wasn’t bad last season, but he could be upgraded on, which the Seahawks did by adding Reed, leaving Wharton to compete with Saunders for playing time. He may win that job, despite Saunders being a higher draft pick, but only because Saunders has yet to show anything across 377 career snaps, struggling as a rookie in limited action before last year’s injury plagued season. This is a deep group overall and it’s led by one of the best in the league at his position in Chris Jones.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Chiefs did address their linebacking corps this off-season, adding Missouri’s Nick Bolton in the 2nd round of the draft, a much needed move because this team lacked an every down linebacker last season, instead stringing together a group of capable run stuffers Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens, capable coverage linebacker Ben Niemann, and hybrid safety/linebacker Daniel Sorensen, who saw frequent action as a true linebacker in sub packages. In all, the group wasn’t terrible, but no one played more than 603 snaps and there was definitely room for improvement.

Bolton might not play every down as a rookie and could have growing pains even if he doesn’t, but the potential of him and last year’s 2nd round pick Willie Gay breathe some life into a group that has been mostly a liability for years. Gay was only limited to 269 snaps as a rookie, which was strange because he showed potential in an otherwise underwhelming group and earned the unit’s highest overall grade from PFF, both in overall grade and in coverage grade, but he easily could see a much bigger role in his 2nd season in the league.

Damien Wilson is no longer with the team, but Anthony Hitchens was retained, somewhat surprising, as the cap strapped Chiefs could have saved 6.5 million by moving on from a player who played just 603 snaps last season and struggled in coverage, but he remains and, assuming he isn’t a late cap casualty, he should remain in primarily a base package role and could easily see his playing time fall even more with Bolton being added and Gay likely receiving a larger role. The Chiefs like the veteran leadership of Hitchens, probably the main reason why he remains on the roster, but he’s struggled in coverage throughout his 7-year career, has only surpassed 700 snaps in a season once, and hasn’t earned an above average grade overall from PFF since 2017.

Ben Niemann and Daniel Sorensen are also underwhelming options if they have to continue seeing playing time in sub packages. Niemann isn’t bad in coverage, but he’s a 2018 undrafted free agent whose 499 snaps last season were a career high, and he struggled mightily against the run. Sorensen, meanwhile, has been adequate at best as a coverage linebacker in his career and is unlikely to suddenly get significantly better, now going into his age 31 season. This should be a better group this season, but they need their young players to step up for this group to be significantly improved and no longer be a liability.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Daniel Sorensen may also see some action at safety, but Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are locked in as the starters. A second round pick by the Chiefs in 2019, Thornhill had an impressive rookie season, finishing as PFF’s 32nd ranked safety in 16 starts, but he tore his ACL in week 17 and, though he returned for week 1 in 2020, he did not seem to be the same player, finishing 84th among 99 eligible safeties and especially struggling in coverage. Now another year removed from the injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back and resume developing into an above average starter, although that can’t be considered a guarantee.

Mathieu also had a bit of a down year last year, in part due to giving up more big plays than normal, but he still finished an above average 49th among safeties on PFF, after ranking 21st in 2018 and 20th in 2019. A versatile joker type player who can play deep safety, in the box, and on the slot, Mathieu is still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in 2021 from his slightly down 2020 season. Both he and Thornhill look likely to be better in 2021 than 2020 and likely to be an above average starting safety duo once again, leaving Sorensen as a reserve safety and situational linebacker.

At cornerback, things are a lot less settled, primarily due to the loss of cornerback Bashaud Breeland, who was PFF’s 38th ranked cornerback last season. While Breeland was their only significant loss at the position and their top-3 returning cornerbacks all received average or better grades from PFF, Bashuad was their de facto #1 cornerback when in the lineup, playing 690 snaps in 11 games, while returning cornerbacks Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Snead played just 782 snaps, 527 snaps, and 410 snaps respectively last season. Further complicating the situation, the Chiefs took flyers on a pair of recent first round picks in Mike Hughes and DeAndre Baker, who are likely to be in the mix for roles as well, so this is very much a position in flux.

Snead played the best of all the Chiefs’ cornerbacks last season, finishing 20th among cornerbacks, despite being only a 4th round rookie, but that came across just 410 snaps, so he’s very unproven and not necessarily a guarantee to translate that into a season long starting role. Fenton is a similar situation. The 2019 6th round pick is also inexperienced, having played just 693 career snaps, but he’s flashed a lot of promise on those limited snaps, including a 31st ranked finish among cornerbacks on 527 snaps last season. Like Snead, he has the upside to develop into a solid season long starter, but he’s a projection to a larger role.

With Breeland missing time with injury, Ward played the most snaps among the Chiefs’ cornerbacks last season with 782 and is the most experienced of the bunch this year. After making 29 starts over the past two seasons and largely holding up as a solid starter, he figures to be as close as to a lock to be a starter as the Chiefs have. The 2018 undrafted free agent hasn’t shown a high ceiling thus far in his career, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and it’s possible that could change.

As much as the Chiefs’ returning cornerbacks are wild cards who are tough to predict, that’s especially true of the former first round picks Mike Hughes and DeAndre Baker, who the Chiefs took flyers on. Hughes was a first round pick in 2018 by the Vikings and showed some promise his rookie year, but he suffered a torn ACL week 6 and his career has been derailed ever since, as he has dealt with more injuries, has struggled when on the field, and has overall been limited to 917 snaps played in 24 games in 3 seasons in the league, leading Minnesota sending him to the Chiefs for a swap of late round picks this off-season. If he can stay healthy, Hughes theoretically still has upside in his age 24 season, but it might be a long shot that he doesn’t get hurt and becomes a capable starter.

Baker, meanwhile, was a first round pick of the Giants in 2019, but he followed up a miserable rookie season in which he finished 121st out of 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF in 15 starts with an off-the-field incident that led to the Giants cutting ties with him last off-season after just one season. The Chiefs actually picked him up towards the end of last season after his charges were dropped, but he played just 45 snaps total before a leg injury ended his season. If he can stay out of further trouble and stay healthy, he also has theoretical upside in his age 24 season, but like Hughes he might be a long shot. The Chiefs cornerback group has upside, but a lot of uncertainty. This isn’t a bad secondary, but their cornerback situation gives them a high variance as a unit.

Grade: B

Kicker/Punter

The Chiefs were about average overall on special teams last season, finishing the year ranked 17th in special teams DVOA. One big strength for them was place kicking, as they finished above average in place kicking DVOA and missed just two field goals all season. Kicker Harrison Butker strangely struggled more on extra points, missing 6 and going just 48/54, despite making all 18 of his field goal attempts from within 40 yards, but that seems like an anomaly and Butker has been a consistently reliable kicker since entering the league in 2017, making 93.5% of his extra points and 90.9% of his field goals, while missing just twice from inside 40 yards and ranking in the top-7 among kickers on PFF in three of four seasons.

Butker was not as effective on kickoffs and, combined with inconsistent play from their special teamers, that led to the Chiefs finishing slightly below average in kickoff DVOA, but they did at least get good play from their punting unit. They finished with an above average punting DVOA and got a strong season from rookie punter Tommy Townsend, who was PFF’s 8th ranked punter and finished 5th with an average of 4.46 seconds of hang time per kickoff. Both Townsend and Butker seem likely to have above average years again in 2021.

Grade: A-

Return Specialists

The Chiefs returned a punt for a 67-yard touchdown last season, but on their other 27 punt returns they averaged just 3.8 yards per and, even with the touchdown included, they still finished below average in punt return DVOA. Mecole Hardman was their primary punt returner and averaged 7.0 yards per return across 25 returns, including that one touchdown where his supporting cast did most of the work. 

Hardman also struggled with a 20.4 yards per return average across 9 kickoff returns, but Byron Pringle actually led the team with 10 kickoff returns and he took them for 32.4 yards per, including a 102-yard touchdown. As a result, the Chiefs actually finished 4th in yards per kickoff return at 25.8 and they had an above average kickoff return DVOA. Both Hardman and Pringle are candidates for bigger roles at wide receiver in 2021 with Sammy Watkins gone, which could affect how much they are used on special teams, but I would expect both to continue seeing some return action. 

Hardman, a 2019 2nd round pick, had better success on returns as a rookie in 2019, averaging 26.1 yards per kickoff return and 9.3 yards per punt return, so he could bounce back a little in 2021. Pringle is less experienced and has never returned a punt, but he was clearly the better of the two kickoff returners in 2020. The Chiefs could also sprinkle Tyreek Hill in on returns more often to take some of the burden off of Hardman and Pringle. 

Hill was one of the most prolific returners in the league earlier in his career, taking 14 kickoff returns for 27.4 yards per and 86 punt returns for 11.7 yards per and scoring five touchdowns in three seasons, but was taken off of the return unit so he could avoid injury and focus on offense and, as a result, hasn’t returned anything since 2018. He won’t suddenly have a big return role again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs use him in certain situations because of how dynamic he is with the ball in his hands. This is an unsettled group, but the Chiefs at least have intriguing options.

Grade: B+

Special Teamers

While the Chiefs weren’t bad on special teams in 2020, it had to be a disappointing year overall for this year, as they had finished in the top-10 in special teams DVOA in eight straight seasons prior to last season, with six finishes in the top-4, coinciding with the arrival of Andy Reid and special teams coordinator Dave Toub, who has interviewed for several head coaching jobs during his tenure with the Chiefs and added the title of assistant head coach a few years ago.

The Chiefs didn’t change much this off-season to try to improve, but that could prove to be the right approach. Daniel Sorensen (167 snaps), Ben Niemann (245 snaps), and Dorian O’Daniel (217 snaps) are their best returning special teamers and all three had above average seasons on PFF, but none of them finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and all three are very proven, so that’s a disappointing finish for them. 

For Niemann, who still finished 110th among special teamers on PFF, it was the worst finish for him in his three seasons in the league, finishing 15th across 259 snaps in 2018 and 8th across 280 snaps in 2019. Sorensen, meanwhile, has four top-100 finishes among special teamers on PFF in seven seasons in the league, including a 86th ranked finish in 2020, and, while O’Daniel’s 80th ranked finish in 2020 was a career best, he’s still finished above average on PFF in all three seasons in the league. It wouldn’t be a surprise for all three to be better in 2021 and even if only a couple are, that would be a big boost for this group.

The Chiefs also retained Nick Keizer (221 snaps) and Armani Watts (353 snaps), who had solid seasons in 2020, but it’s not all good news as Antonio Hamilton (328 snaps) who also had a solid season in 2020, is no longer with the team, replaced by veteran signing Blake Bell, who has been a middling special teamer at best in his career. Their depth will also need to take a step forward from a year ago, but they should at least get strong play from their core special teamers. With good talent at kicker, punter, and returner as well, along with one of the best special teams coordinators in the league, the Chiefs should be closer to their high level 2013-2019 performance than their middling 2020 performance overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs are obviously one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season, but they may still be a little bit of an overrated team. They patched up the offensive line problems that caused many of their wins to be close calls in the regular season and that eventually caused their defeat in the Super Bowl, but it came at the expense of not addressing other needs at the offensive skill positions and on defense, not notably their lack of edge rushers. They’ll be contenders, but they’re not the favorites that many may view them as. I will have a final prediction for the Chiefs at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: The Chiefs are one of the teams that benefits from special teams being more predictive than most think, as they should be significantly improved in that aspect in 2021, further solidifying their grasp on being a top level contender.

9/4/21 Update: The Chiefs have some injury concerns on their rebuilt offensive line to begin the season, but nothing compared to what they were dealing with in the post-season last year and they still look like arguably the best team in the league, especially since their special teams seem likely to be significantly improved from a year ago. The biggest thing working against them making their 3rd straight Super Bowl might be fatigue, as this team has played more than anyone over the past two seasons.

Prediction: 14-3 1st in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

After the Falcons almost impossibly blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl following the 2016 season, the franchise became synonymous with blown leads, but in some ways, that’s nothing compared to what happened to the Falcons in 2020, when they lost four games in which they had a winning probability of 95% or higher at some point in the second half. Their first two blown leads were the biggest collapses, as the Falcons had a 99% chance of winning each game under 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter and the games came in back-to-back weeks. 

Against the Cowboys in week 2, the Falcons led 26-7 in the 2nd quarter, 39-24 in the 4th quarter, and 39-30 with under 5 minutes to play and possession, but somehow managed to lose 40-39 in a game that included a Dallas onside kick recovery. The following week, they led the Bears 26-10 in the 4th quarter, only to allow three straight touchdown drives by the hapless Bears offense. There was a less than 1 in 100 chance that the Falcons would blow either lead, but somehow they managed to blow both leads in back-to-back weeks, a probability of less than 1 in 10,000. And it didn’t even end there. 

Their other two blown leads weren’t quite as egregious, but only by default, as they lost a game to the Lions in week 7 that the Falcons would have won with a kneel down and a chip shot field goal and in week 15 they blew a 24-7 3rd quarter lead to the Buccaneers. Making matters even worse, the Falcons only won 4 games all season, meaning they blew as many almost victories as they had actual victories and could have been a respectable 8-8 rather than 4-12 if they had just held on to those leads. In terms of average lead, the Falcons actually ranked 8th in the NFL last season, which makes the fact that they managed to win just four games seem borderline impossible.

In total, the Falcons went just 2-7 in one score games last season and they had a point differential of -18 which also suggests the Falcons were closer to a 8-8 record. First down rate differential isn’t quite as kind to them, but when factoring in that the Falcons had the second toughest schedule in the league last year, sharing a division with the Saints and Buccaneers, they finished the season with a -0.36% schedule adjusted first down rate differential that was 19th in the NFL, also significantly better than their record suggested. 

A team’s record in close games is one of the least predictable stats on a year-to-year basis and even a seemingly cursed team like the Falcons could see their luck in close games turn around after last season. In fact, the Falcons actually went 49-36 in one score games in the previous 10 seasons prior to last season, so it’s not as if they’re inherently bad in close games. With better luck in close games, it wasn’t hard at the end of the 2020 season to see how the Falcons could have a significantly improved win total in 2021.

However, even with that optimism, the Falcons came into this off-season at a crossroads, for various reasons. For one, they were looking for a new head coach for the first time in 6 off-seasons, after letting go of overmatched head coach Dan Quinn mid-season. The Falcons decided on former Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who has worked wonders with a Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry led Titans team over the past two seasons, getting career best play out of both of those two playmakers and riding them to back-to-back highly ranked offensive seasons and back-to-back playoff appearances. However, once Smith and new GM Terry Fontenot were put into place, a direction needed to be decided for this franchise. 

Despite their record last season, this was very much a team that was in win-now mode, with one of the oldest rosters in the league and one of the league’s worst cap situations. By virtue of their 4-12 record, the Falcons were picking 4th overall in one of the better quarterback drafts in recent memory and had the opportunity to draft a quarterback of the future behind the still very capable, but aging and highly paid Matt Ryan, officially starting a rebuilding process that would likely lead to other veterans being replaced and traded/released over the next two off-seasons. The Falcons also had the opportunity to potentially trade down and accumulate extra picks, much needed for an aging team that hasn’t drafted particularly well in recent years, while still adding to their goal of winning now, as a deep rookie class could be the difference between a sub-.500 finish and a trip to the post-season

Instead, they went with neither of those options, staying put at #4 overall and selecting Florida’s Kyle Pitts with the highest ever pick used on a tight end. Pitts is as good of a receiving tight end prospect as the NFL has ever seen, so it’s understandable that he would be a high pick, but you have to question the fit for a team with an already strong passing game, but a lacking running game and various needs on defense, which would have been better addressed with multiple later picks.

Of course, quarterback Matt Ryan has to be happy with the pick, as not only does it mean that he likely has another two more seasons in Atlanta, with no realistic way to find a cheaper replacement unless they bottom out again in 2021, but he also gets another dynamic weapon in the passing game. Head coach Arthur Smith also has to be happy with the pick, as he reportedly pushed for the Falcons to draft Pitts rather than a quarterback, believing Ryan still had at least another couple seasons at his current level of play.

Ryan is going into his age 36 season, but Smith’s belief could easily be correct, given the recent history of quarterbacks playing at a high level into their late 30s. Ryan has also barely ever missed time with injury, missing just 3 games in 13 seasons in the league since the Falcons selected him 3rd overall in 2008, and he showed no signs of dropping off in 2020, finishing as PFF’s 11th ranked quarterback and completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.32 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, giving him a QB rating of 93.3 which is very much in line with his career average of 94.5. In total, he’s finished in the top-16 among quarterbacks on PFF in 12 of 13 seasons in the league and I would expect the same from him in 2021.

The Falcons will have to hope so, as they didn’t draft a developmental quarterback at any point and instead brought in veteran journeyman AJ McCarron to be Ryan’s backup. A 5th round pick in 2014, McCarron showed some promise early in his career, but ultimately has made just 4 career starts in 7 seasons in the league, split across three different teams. His 86.7 career QB rating isn’t bad, but it’s hard to know what to expect from a player who has made just 1 total start over the past 5 seasons. You could do worse than him as a backup quarterback, but the Falcons would obviously be in trouble if Ryan missed extended action.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

With the Falcons staying put at 4 and selecting Kyle Pitts instead of trading down and accumulating extra picks, one glaring need that they didn’t address on draft day was running back, which they didn’t use a single pick on. The Falcons signed Todd Gurley last off-season, hoping that the former MVP candidate would bounce back on a one-year deal, but he managed just a 3.48 YPC average on 195 carries and by the end of the season was splitting carries with Brian Hill and Ito Smith. Hill and Smith fared better, averaging 4.65 YPC on 100 carries and 4.25 YPC on 63 carries respectively, but the Falcons still finished the season 31st in the NFL with 3.75 YPC and all three of Gurley, Hill, and Smith were not retained this off-season.

In free agency, the Falcons signed ex-Panther Mike Davis to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal, but Davis isn’t a feature caliber back that the Falcons don’t need another capable back to pair with, so it was very surprising they didn’t add a running back at all on draft day. Davis essentially was a feature back last season with the Panthers, with 163 carries and 51 catches in 12 starts when running back Christian McCaffrey was injured, but his efficiency stats left something to be desired, as he averaged just 3.91 yards per carry and 4.82 yards per target in those 12 starts.

Davis also had never played nearly as significant of a role as he did last year in his previous 5 seasons in the league, entering last season with 247 career carries and 66 career catches, and his efficiency stats weren’t impressive over those touches either, with 3.59 YPC and 5.00 yards per target. A running back in his age 28 season, it’s highly unlikely Davis suddenly breaks out as a feature caliber running back. He figures to be underwhelming for the Falcons, but could total some relatively impressive numbers based on the volume he figures to handle, barring the addition of another veteran running back in free agency.

The Falcons’ decision to not yet add another running back may say something about 2019 5th round pick Qadree Ollison, but it’s hard to expect anything from him, given that he has just a 2.30 YPC on 23 career carries, with just 1 of those carries coming last season. He’s currently penciled in as the #2 running back by default, because Tony Brooks-James, who has just 11 career rushing yards, is their only other running back with NFL experience. 

The Falcons also signed hybrid wide receiver/running back Cordarelle Patterson in free agency and he has averaged 4.50 YPC over the past 3 seasons on 125 carries, while adding 70 catches in 57 games, but he isn’t a legitimate option for a significant role as a runner, with his career high in carries being the 64 he had last season. This is arguably the most underwhelming running back group in the NFL.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

I will get into Kyle Pitts and this receiving corps shortly, but one player they could have selected with the 4th overall pick if they didn’t have a good offer to trade down was offensive tackle Penei Sewell. The Falcons have used three first round picks on offensive linemen since 2014, including a pair in 2019, but they still had a glaring need upfront going into the draft, with veteran center Alex Mack and veteran left guard James Carpenter not being retained in free agency, one that Pewell could have addressed.

Neither Mack nor Carpenter played all that well last season and the Falcons had 2020 3rd round pick Matt Hennessy, a versatile interior lineman who could have taken over for either one of them, but Hennessy struggled on 225 rookie year snaps and even if he can develop into a capable starter in his second season in the league, he can only start at one position. On top of that, 2019 1st round pick Kaleb McGary has disappointed in two seasons in the league (29 starts), showing some ability as a run blocker, but earning below average pass protection grades from PFF in both seasons, and he could have moved inside to guard if the Falcons selected Pewell 4th overall. 

Instead, the Falcons addressed the offensive line in the 3rd and 4th rounds, adding Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield and Stanford’s Drew Dalman. Mayfield was a tackle in college and it’s possible he stays at right tackle as a professional, moving McGary inside, but Mayfield also fell in the draft because of his short arms and might profile better as a guard at the next level. Either way, he has a good chance to start week 1, even as just a 3rd round rookie, as the Falcons’ next best option would be plugging swing tackle Matt Gono, who has struggled on 379 career snaps since going undrafted in 2018, into the starting lineup somewhere. 

Dalman, meanwhile, could push Hennessy at center if Hennessy continues to struggle there in his 2nd season. It’s good the Falcons addressed their offensive line with multiple picks, but it’s unclear how much either will be able to contribute as a rookie. With Hennessy and McGary being unreliable young starting options as well, particularly the former, the Falcons are hoping that multiple unproven players will surprise upfront. Most likely, left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom will remain the Falcons’ best two offensive linemen. 

Unlike fellow first round pick Kaleb McGary, who has yet to establish himself, Matthews and Lindstrom have proven to be worth the first round picks the Falcons invested in them, in 2014 and 2019 respectively. After a shaky rookie year, Matthews has developed into a consistently above average left tackle, finishing with an above average grade from PFF in all 6 seasons since his rookie year, including 4 seasons in the top-12. He’s never finished higher than 10th at his position in a single season, but he’s been highly consistent and very reliable, with just 1 start missed in 7 seasons in the league, and he’s still very much in his prime in his age 29 season, so I don’t expect any sort of noticeable dropoff from him in 2021.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, was a surprise pick 14th overall when the Falcons selected him, one pick after the Dolphins took Atlanta’s original target, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. However, after a promising, but injury plagued rookie year, in which he played just 309 snaps, Lindstrom broke out as PFF’s 9th ranked guard in 16 starts in his second season in the league in 2020. He’s not a guarantee to be as good again in 2021, as the development of young players is not always linear, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and could keep getting better and develop into one of the better guards in the league over the next couple seasons. This is probably a below average offensive line, but they have some young players with upside.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Note: This was written before the Julio Jones trade, which I get into in the conclusion.

With the Falcons lacking financial flexibility this off-season, their biggest off-season addition was 4th overall pick Kyle Pitts. Tight end wasn’t really a need, but Pitts is an elite receiving prospect who can be an obvious upgrade over Hayden Hurst, a former 1st round pick in his own right who the Falcons acquired from the Ravens for a 2nd round pick last off-season, but who has failed to live up to expectations throughout his career, averaging just 1.27 yards per route run in 3 seasons in the league, with 99 catches in 44 games. Old for a rookie, Hurst is already going into his age 28 season, so it’s unlikely he has significant untapped upside. 

Hurst had a 56/571/6 slash line last season, but he is unlikely to get the opportunity to even come close to those numbers, which came on 88 targets, while Pitts has a good chance to exceed those numbers even as a rookie. However, he might not exceed those numbers by as much as you’d expect, as rookie tight ends notoriously have a steep learning curve in the NFL and only 13 tight ends exceeded that receiving total in 2020. Pitts will make an impact on this offense, but it’s unlikely to be the impact needed to justify his draft slot, especially on a team that already had a good passing game.

Last season, that passing game was led by third year receiver Calvin Ridley, as the former first round pick finished with a 90/1374/9 slash line (5th in the NFL in receiving yards) and became the first Falcon other than Julio Jones to lead this team in receiving yardage since 2013. Ridley showed potential in the first two years of his career, averaging 1.73 yards per route run and he took a noticeably step forward in his third season in the league, with his yards per route run shooting up to 2.44, 8th in the NFL. Ridley might not quite be as good in 2021, but he looks like one of the better young receivers in the league.

Julio Jones is still on this team, but injuries limited him to 468 snaps in 9 games in 2020. He still showed his usual form when on the field, averaging 2.60 yards per route run, in line with his career average of 2.68, and ranking 9th among wide receivers on PFF, his 7th straight season in the top-9 at his position. Both of those make him among the most accomplished wide receivers of the past decade, but the injuries are starting to pile up for a receiver who hasn’t finished in the top-10 among wide receivers in routes run in a season since 2014 and, now going into his age 32 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his efficiency decline as well. 

Jones will probably remain one of the better wide receivers in the league even if he does decline, but wide receivers tend to drop off pretty suddenly around 33-34. The Falcons also have reportedly explored trades for Jones and his 18.05 million dollar salary, but they’re unlikely to move him unless they get the kind of offer they’re unlikely to get from a team. The Falcons already signaled by keeping Matt Ryan and not selecting a quarterback at 4 that the Falcons still view themselves in win-now mode and trading Jones for a draft pick in 2022 or beyond would not work to that goal.

The Falcons will probably use more two tight end sets this season with Pitts being added and Hurst now becoming one of the better #2 tight ends in the league, but they also have decent depth at wide receiver, with 2018 6th round pick Russell Gage stepping up as the Falcons’ #3 receiver in his third season in the league in 2020. Gage had averaged 1.24 yards per route run in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, but saw that increase to 1.52 yards per route run in close to an every down role last season, with Jones injured or limited for much of the seasons, leading to Gage finishing the season with a 72/786/4 slash line. 

With Pitts coming in and Jones likely to give the Falcons more than he did last season, Gage will probably see his playing time and targets drop, but he’s still a capable #3 receiver. The Falcons also have hybrid player Cordarelle Patterson, who was mentioned in the running back section. This is obviously a talented receiving corps, but it doesn’t mask the Falcons’ concerns at running back and on the offensive line enough for this offense to be significantly improved over their 16th ranked finish in first down rate over expected in 2020.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Falcons also had numerous defensive needs they did not adequately address this off-season, most notably the edge defender position. The Falcons have seemingly needed pass rush help forever, somehow not topping 39 sacks in a season since 2004 and totaling a well below average 29 sacks last season. It’s even worse than that looks for their edge defenders, as their team leader in sacks with 4.5 was blitzing linebacker Deion Jones, followed by defensive tackle Grady Jarrett with 4, while no edge defender had more than 3 sacks.

It’s not as if the Falcons have not tried to address the position over the years, making numerous big investments. They used first round picks on edge defenders in 2015 and 2017, taking Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley, but both proved to be busts and are no longer with the team, Beasley not being retained as a free agent last off-season and McKinley being cut in the middle of last season after a disappointing 85 snaps in his first 4 games. 

The Falcons also handed out a big contract to free agent Dante Fowler last off-season, signing the former Jaguar and Ram to a deal worth 45 million over 3 years, but he too proved to be a bust in his first season in Atlanta, managing just 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate and ranking 118th among 125 eligible edge defenders on PFF on 601 snaps. Fowler’s contract guaranteed him 6 million of his 2021 salary, so the Falcons didn’t have a choice but to bring him back and hope he bounces back, but his contract was an overpay even before last year’s terrible season, as he’s never finished higher than 33rd among edge defenders on PFF in 6 seasons in the league. 

Fowler had 11.5 sacks in 2019 with the Rams, which is why the Falcons paid him like they did, but that was a misleading total, as he had just 6 other hits, though he did have a 13.1% pressure rate. That sack total is also out of line with his career numbers, as he’s never topped 8 sacks in another season and, in total, has just 30.5 sacks, 28 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 77 career games. Fowler might not be quite as bad as he was last season, but I wouldn’t expect more than middling play from him and he shouldn’t approach his 2019 sack total.

This off-season, the Falcons didn’t have the opportunity to make a big investment on the position, without financial flexibility in free agency and with other needs to address in the draft. As a result, 5th round rookie Ta’Quon Graham and veteran journeyman Barkevious Mingo, who is in his age 31 season and who has played just 464 snaps on defense over the past two seasons combined, were their only off-season additions at the position. As a result of that, the Falcons will likely rely on Steven Means as the starter opposite Fowler once again.

A 5th round pick in 2013, Means was primarily a special teamer in his first 7 seasons in the league, playing 333 snaps total on defense over that stretch, but, purely out of desperation, the Falcons played him on 645 snaps last season, almost doubling his previous career total. Means predictably struggled, finishing 92nd out of 125 eligible edge defenders on PFF and totaling 3 sacks, 2 hits, and a very underwhelming 6.2% pressure rate. Now going into his age 32 season, I don’t expect a sudden late career breakout, but he could see a similar snap count, again purely out of desperation.

Along with Mingo and Graham, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner also figures to be in the mix for a reserve role, after playing 376 snaps in one last season, but he finished just 113th out of 125 eligible edge defenders on those snaps, so he too is an underwhelming option, especially since he is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had played just 187 career snaps prior to last season. This should remain one of the worst edge defender groups in the league again this season, which will severely limit this defense.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

The Falcons are better on the interior, but largely by default and primarily because of Grady Jarrett, who was their best defensive player overall last season and could do so again in 2021. Jarrett’s 4 sacks don’t jump off the page, but he added 18 hits and a 10.0% pressure rate, while dominating against the run, leading to him earning PFF’s 15th ranked grade among interior defenders. That’s nothing new for the 2015 5th round pick either, as he has totaled 21.5 sacks, 48 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate over the past 4 seasons combined, while finishing in the top-16 among interior defenders on PFF in all 4 seasons. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, with just 3 games missed in 6 seasons in the league, I see no reason to expect anything different from Jarrett in 2021, barring a fluke injury.

The rest of this group left something to be desired last season, but there are some intriguing options in this group. A 4th round pick in 2019, John Cominsky only had 1 sack last season, but he added 2 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in a limited role, playing 399 snaps overall. He also flashed on 100 snaps as a rookie and has earned a larger role in his third season in the league, particularly in passing situations. Second year player Marlon Davidson also figures to see a larger role in 2021, after being limited to 132 snaps in 8 games in an injury plagued rookie year. Davidson didn’t show much in that limited action, but he was a 2nd round pick and could easily be significantly improved in year two, especially if he can stay relatively healthy.

The Falcons also have veteran Tyeler Davison, who played 519 snaps last season, but struggled across those snaps, finishing 87th out of 138 eligible interior defenders on PFF. He’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 4.7% pressure rate in 93 games in 6 seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round by the Saints in 2015, but he had typically been a solid run stuffer before last season. 

Davison is not over the hill, only in his age 29 season, but it’s still possible his best days are behind him and he’s never been more than a situational player who has topped out at 588 snaps in a season. Still, he could be better in 2021 than 2020, especially if he plays a more limited role and is able to stay fresher. I would expect this position group to be better this season than last season and Jarrett is one of the best players in the league at this position, but there are still question marks here.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Falcons’ linebackers were their best group on defense last season and, while that’s not saying much, they were a solid unit overall and should remain one in 2021. Deion Jones leads the way as an every down player, playing 895 snaps last season and finishing 16th among off ball linebackers on PFF, his 4th straight season in the top-17 at his position. Jones is above average both in coverage and against the run and, still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect anything different from him in 2021.

Foyesade Oluokun is their second linebacker and he plays close to every down as an outside linebacker, seeing 895 snaps in 15 games. A 6th round pick in 2018, last season was by far the most single season action of his career, but he flashed potential across 835 combined snaps in his first two seasons before earning a middling grade last season, so it’s not as if his solid season came out of nowhere. Now entering the final year of his rookie deal, I would expect more of the same from Oluokun in 2021.

The Falcons run a significant amount of sub packages, so they don’t use a third linebacker all that often, but 2020 4th round pick Mykal Walker excelled in that role in limited action last season, flashing a ton of potential on 387 snaps, actually earning PFF’s 9th highest off ball linebacker grade in his limited action. He’ll likely remain in that same limited role in his second season in the league in 2021, but the long-term plan may be for him to replace Oluokun as an every down player, with Oloukun set to hit free agency next off-season and, in the short-term, he could easily remain an above average option as a third linebacker for the occasions when the Falcons need to line up in base packages, even if he isn’t quite as good on a per snap basis he was in 2021. This is a solid group overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

After selecting Kyle Pitts with the 4th selection, the Falcons used their next draft pick, 40th overall in the early second round, on a safety, addressing one of their many defensive needs by taking UCF’s Richie Grant. Grant is expected to have a chance to start immediately for a defense that no longer has its top-4 safeties from last season in terms of snaps played, including long-term starters Keanu Neal and Ricardo Neal. The Falcons didn’t get great play from their safeties last season, but they had to completely retool the position this off-season.

The Falcons did a good job of that all things considered. Grant may show growing pains as a rookie, but was a solid value with the 40th overall pick and projects as an above average starter long-term. Grant is also expected to start next to veteran safety Duron Harmon, who the Falcons signed for just over the minimum this off-season. Harmon was never higher on the depth chart than the third safety in his first 7 seasons in the league with New England from 2013-2019, but he still saw plenty of action, averaging 621 snaps per season in his final 5 seasons with the team and generally holding up well, before getting his first actual starting job with the Lions last season, with whom he made 16 starts and earned a middling grade from PFF for his efforts. 

Harmon doesn’t come with a high upside and his best days could be behind him, now heading into his age 30 season, but he could easily have another capable season as a starter and prove to be a good value as a cheap free agent signing. The Raiders also signed another veteran Erik Harris, to a cheap deal in free agency, and he has decent experience as well, with 30 starts over the past 3 seasons, but he’s generally been a level below Harmon and finished last season 72nd out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF. The Falcons also have 2020 4th round pick Jaylinn Hawkins, who saw just 76 snaps as a rookie, but could be in the mix for a role in his second season in the league in 2021.

At cornerback, however, the Falcons did not do a good job of addressing their need. The Falcons have used premium draft picks on cornerbacks in recent drafts, taking Isaiah Oliver in the 2nd round in 2018 and AJ Terrell in the 1st round in 2020, but both have been inconsistent and have yet to live up to their draft range. Last season, the Falcons highest rated cornerback was actually veteran slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard, but he was unspectacular and played just 439 snaps in 8 games due to injury, before being allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season.

With Dennard gone, I expected the Falcons to use a premium pick on a replacement, but instead couldn’t address the position until taking Darren Hall and Avery Williams in the 4th and 5th rounds respectively. With both players unlikely to be a factor as a rookie, Terrell and Oliver look likely to remain as the starters, with 2019 4th round pick Kendall Sheffield taking over as the 3rd cornerback. Terrell has the most upside of the bunch, as he was a first round pick just a year ago and was decent as a rookie. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward and become an above average starter as the Falcons’ de facto #1 cornerback.

Oliver and Sheffield are less inspiring. Oliver flashed on 241 snaps as a rookie, but since becoming a starter over the past two seasons, he has finished 95th among 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF in 2019 and 76th among 136 eligible in 2020. Sheffield, meanwhile, has been even worse, finishing 124th out of 135 eligible on 697 snaps in 2019 and 131st out of 136 eligible on 524 snaps. The Falcons have youth at the cornerback position, so they have some upside, but overall they’re in a tough situation at the position. Even though their safeties look decent, this secondary still figures to struggle to stop opposing passing games all season.

Grade: C+

Kicker/Punter

The Falcons are in good shape at both punter and kicker going into 2021, bringing back Sterling Hofrichter and Younghoe Koo. Koo is the better known of the two because he is the only kickoff specialist who can kick recoverable onside kicks at any sort of statistically above average rate and he’s also developed into an above average placekicker as well, making 48/52 extra points and 60/65 field goals over the past two seasons, including all nine attempts from 50+ yards. However, Horichter is a solid player as well, finishing 12th among punters on PFF in his first year in the league in 2020, after being selected by the Falcons in the 7th round. It’s possible he could be better in year two and this should remain a solid duo.

Grade: B+

Return Specialists

Brandon Powell was both the Falcons’ punt and kickoff return specialist last season. He did a decent job on punt returns, averaging 8.9 yards per and finishing above average on PFF across 17 returns, but he averaged just 20.1 yards per on 17 kickoff returns and was PFF’s worst ranked kickoff returner out of 51 eligible. Powell is no longer with the team and on kickoff returns will be replaced by one of the best kickoff returners in NFL history, Cordarelle Patterson, who has averaged a whopping 29.8 yards per return with 8 touchdowns on 239 career returns.

Patterson has only ever returned one punt, but the Falcons’ 5th round rookie cornerback Avery Williams was a prolific return man in college, averaging 11.6 yards per punt return with 6 scores on 82 attempts and 27.4 yards per kickoff return with 3 scores on 38 attempts. He figures to be the primary punt returner, while providing insurance behind Patterson. The Falcons figure to get good return play from both spots in 2021.

Grade: A

Special Teamers

The Falcons’ special teams were middling at best as a whole in 2020 and there is serious concern beyond their kicker, punter, and returners. The Falcons had nine players see at least 150 snaps as a special teamer in 2020. Three of them earned above average grades from PFF, but LaRoy Reynolds (266 snaps) and Edmond Robinson (182 snaps) are no longer with the team while Jacob Tuioti-Mariner (209 snaps) could be needed more on defense and see fewer special teams snaps as a result. Even if he doesn’t, last season was his first season on special teams, so he doesn’t have a proven track record.

Jaylinn Hawkins (150 snaps) and Mykal Walker (182 snaps) also had solid seasons on special teams in 2020, but they are candidates to see more playing time on defense and less time on special teams in 2021, in just their second seasons in the league. On top of that, Sherrod Neasman (296 snaps) and Luke Stocker (219 snaps), while not playing all that well last season, are no longer with the team and could be missed for experience purposes. Keith Smith (256 snaps) and Jaeden Graham (214 snaps) are likely to return to their same role, but both earned below average grades from PFF in 2020. Smith has at least been somewhat better in the past and is experienced with five seasons over 200 special teams snaps, but Graham also struggled across 300 snaps in his first career special teams action in 2019.

The Falcons added a couple reinforcements in free agency. Safety Erik Harris is also a candidate to play on defense, but he’s earned above average grades from PFF across 200+ special teams snaps in three of the past four seasons, including a career best finish in 2020 and would likely be their best regular special teamer if used in that capacity. Reserve cornerback Fabian Moreau will likely be a special teamer if he makes the team, but he’s been underwhelming at best across 590 special teams snaps in 4 seasons in the league. The Falcons are likely to be relying on several rookies for significant snaps in this group in 2021.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The good news is the Falcons should have better luck in close games and hold on to more leads this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them have fewer leads in the first place. With an aging roster, no financial flexibility this off-season, and significant draft capital being spent on a tight end to add to an already good passing game, the Falcons are likely to enter the season with several glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. 

This roster is not clearly better than last season and, while they’ll almost definitely have better luck in close games, they should have worse injury luck, after having the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, which would be a problem for an overall top heavy roster. The Falcons are unlikely to seriously compete for a playoff spot this season and it’s not hard to see how injuries to multiple of their key star players could land this team among the worst in the league. I will have a final prediction for the Falcons at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

Update: When I wrote this, I didn’t expect Julio Jones to get traded because the Falcons seemed to still be trying to compete in 2021, keeping an aging Matt Ryan and not adding a quarterback of the future behind him when they had the chance. Instead, the Falcons have sent Jones to the Titans for a trade centered around a 2022 2nd round pick. I don’t hate the compensation the Falcons got, but it’s a bit puzzling why a team otherwise trying to compete now would not trade Jones before the draft to ensure they could get a draft pick that could help their team as soon as possible.

Instead, a team with an aging quarterback just flipped his long-time #1 receiver for a draft pick they won’t even get to use for a year. If the Falcons had managed to get a first round pick out of waiting to trade Jones, then it would be somewhat understandable as the Falcons likely would not have gotten a 2021 first round pick for him, but I have a hard time believing the same teams interested in Jones would not have been interested in him at the same price of around a second round pick in this past year’s draft, which they could have used on a necessary addition at any one of their outstanding positions of need.

Making this move now is basically ensuring you’re going to waste one of Matt Ryan’s few remaining seasons. Jones will be replaced in three wide receiver sets by either Cordarrelle Patterson or one or two young former undrafted free agents, Christian Blake and Olamide Zaccheaus, who have just 24 catches and 23 catches respectively in their careers. Even if Jones was getting up there and age and a second round pick was reasonable compensation for him, there is no denying that is a significant downgrade.

8/8/21: The Falcons will get some benefit from their special teams, which is more predictive than I realized, but their defense also fared significantly worse in yards per play allowed than first down rate allowed and yards per play tends to be the more predictive of those two metrics.

9/4/21: The Falcons could have easily won more than 4 games last season and are starting from a higher base point than last season’s record suggests, but they also still have one of the worst defenses in the league, they lost Julio Jones, and, even if their receiving corps can be solid without him, they still have an aging quarterback and can underwhelming offensive line and running game. They seem likely to finish below .500 again. The Falcons would have been better off starting a rebuild in full this off-season if they were planning on trading Jones.

Prediction: 6-11 3rd in NFC South

Chicago Bears 2021 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

Perhaps no team has had a long standing need at one position longer than the Bears have needed a legitimate franchise quarterback. The Bears haven’t had a quarterback elected to the Pro Bowl since Jim McMahon 1985, which also happens to be the last time this franchise won the Super Bowl, wasting numerous high level defensive seasons in the process. Just since 2004, the Bears have finished in the top-10 in first down rate allowed in 9 of 17 seasons and in total they rank 3rd in the league in first down rate allowed over that stretch, as opposed to their offense which has ranked 28th in first down rate.

The Bears thought they solved their quarterback need in 2017, when they selected Mitch Trubisky 2nd overall, moving up from the 3rd pick to secure him, following a 3-13 season the previous year. However, Trubisky’s four years in Chicago were less than inspiring. Trubisky led the Bears to 12 wins in 2018 and made the Pro-Bowl as an alternate in what looks like a misprint now, but Trubisky largely rode a dominant defense and an easy schedule and he was an obvious limiting factor for this team taking the next step in the post-season, struggling in a wild card home loss to the Eagles.

The Bears defense has continued to play well over the past two seasons, but hasn’t reached the heights of 2018’s dominant unit and has been held back by a struggling offense, en route to back-to-back 8-8 seasons. The Bears added veteran competition for Trubisky prior to 2020 in Nick Foles, but Foles was even worse than Trubisky in limited action last season. In total, Trubisky completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, while going 29-21 in 50 starts, despite being supported by a top-12 defense in all 4 seasons.

With Trubisky set to hit free agency with his 5th year option (which would have paid him a whopping 24.8 million) getting declined, the Bears decided to wipe the slate clean at the position and start over yet again. Nick Foles remains on the roster by virtue of a 4 million dollar guaranteed salary that would be tough to move in a trade, but the Bears added a pair of quarterbacks to the mix that both have better chances to start games in 2021.

Their first addition was veteran free agent Andy Dalton. A 2nd round pick of the Bengals in 2011, Dalton was a serviceable starter for 9 seasons with the Bengals, starting 133 games and completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 218 touchdowns, and 126 interceptions, but never played at a high enough level to elevate the team around him and only found success when surrounded with a lot of talent. His best seasons came in 2015 (PFF’s 7th ranked quarterback) and 2018 (PFF’s 13th ranked quarterback), but he was consistently a middling starting quarterback throughout his tenure in Cincinnati. After the Bengals bottomed out in 2019, they opted to replace the aging, expensive veteran Dalton with #1 overall pick Joe Burrow, leading to Dalton’s release when they were unable to find a trade partner for his salary.

Dalton had opportunities to compete for a starting job in several places last off-season, but opted to sign a true backup quarterback contract in Dallas, signing for just 3 million to hold the clipboard behind an established quarterback in Dak Prescott. It was a bit of an odd move from a football perspective, but Dalton is from Texas originally and the situation worked out for him, as Dak Prescott suffered a season ending ankle injury in week 5, leaving Dalton to make 9 starts and 11 appearances the rest of the way. 

Dalton had a weak offensive line in front of him with the Cowboys’ top-three offensive linemen all missing significant time with injury last season, but he was still able to get the ball to the Cowboys’ talented skill position players, finishing the season with a 64.9% completion percentage, 6.52 YPA, and 14 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Dalton’s track record of being a steady, but unspectacular hand intrigued the Bears in free agency, particularly with few other starting options available on the open market, and the Bears opted to not only sign him to a fully guaranteed 1-year, 10.5 million contract for his age 34 season in 2021, but also to immediately announce him as their starting quarterback on social media.

That may have been premature, however, as the Bears also had their eyes on finding a potential long-term franchise quarterback in the draft and, when a couple of the top quarterback prospects started to fall, the Bears, originally picking at 20 and seemingly out of range of a top quarterback prospect, traded away a future first round pick among other picks to swap picks with the Giants and select Ohio State’s Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick. Dalton may remain their starting quarterback for now, but it’s a matter of when not if Fields becomes the starter and if recent history is any indication, I would expect Fields to be out there sooner rather than later, possibly even as soon as week one. 

Fields might not quite have the upside of the three quarterbacks selected ahead of him (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance), but he’s an experienced starter who has played at a high level for several seasons in a major conference. Outside of #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, Fields seems like the cleanest and most NFL ready of the top-5 quarterback prospects from this draft class, so he could definitely win the starting job in training camp, even competing against an experienced veteran in Andy Dalton.

Overall, things are definitely looking up for the Bears, as Fields represents their most promising quarterback prospect in many years, but even a relatively pro ready quarterback like Fields is hardly a lock to come in and start playing at a high level from the word go. This is still a position of concern in the short-term, even if the long-term outlook looks a lot better than it did a year ago. The Bears will likely need to support whoever their quarterback is well on both sides of the ball if they’re going to be a contender this season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive issues weren’t just limited to the quarterback position last season, as they had issues in several places en route to finishing just 26th in first down rate over expected. The Bears were also limited in their ability to address various needs this off-season, as not only did they have next to no financial flexibility in free agency, but, after their trade up for Fields, they were left with only one other pick in the top-150 on draft day. They used that pick, 39th overall, on Oklahoma State offensive tackle Teven Jenkins, who is tentatively expected to start for the Bears week one.

It originally looked like Jenkins would start at right tackle, replacing Bobby Massie, their long-time starting right tackle, who was released this off-season ahead of 8.1 million non-guaranteed owed to him in 2021, but, after the draft, the Bears opted to release left tackle Charles Leno, ahead of the 9 million non-guaranteed he was owed this season, meaning the second round rookie will likely be the week one starter in a key spot on the blindside. Leno and Massie had been the Bears’ starting tackles for several seasons, making 94 starts in 7 seasons with the team and 64 starts in 5 seasons with the team respectively, and they had generally been above average, but the Bears’ cap situation forced their hand with both of them.

Massie’s release was not surprising, as he missed 8 games with injury last season and was heading into his age 32 season, but Leno made all 16 starts at left tackle last season, as he had for 5 straight seasons, and he earned his fourth above average grade from PFF in those 5 seasons, so it was surprising to see him be released as well, even after the selection of Jenkins. If the Bears needed to free up additional cap space, they could have done so by releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and his 7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, which for some reason remains on the books.

With Jenkins likely starting at left tackle, that will leave Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson as their options at right tackle, with whoever does not start at right tackle likely to then start at right guard. Ifedi made the final 6 starts of last season at right tackle, after starting the first 10 games of the season at right guard, moving over after Massie’s season ending injury. He wasn’t bad and was brought back on a 1-year, 4.25 million dollar deal in free agency, but he was only a middling starter and, prior to last season, was a complete bust of a 2016 first round pick with Seattle.

Ifedi saw plenty of playing time in his 4 seasons with the Seahawks, making 60 starts, but he consistently struggled, receiving a below average grade from PFF in all 4 seasons. It’s possible the former high draft pick has turned a corner as a player and will remain a capable starter, but it’s worth remembering he was considered a reach by most when he was drafted and even if he has turned a corner, there is no guarantee he continues getting better. Wilkinson, meanwhile, signed this off-season from the Broncos, where he made 26 starts in 4 seasons after going undrafted in 2017, with 19 of those starts coming at right tackle and 7 coming at right guard. However, he’s been pretty mediocre throughout those starts. 

Before the Bears cut Leno, it seemed like Wilkinson would likely be the 6th offensive lineman, which he is well qualified for because of his versatility, but without Leno, Wilkinson seems likely to be forced into the starting lineup as a season long starter, which not only likely creates a weak spot upfront for the Bears, but also leaves them with minimal depth, with top remaining reserves Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars both struggling mightily in 553 snaps and 617 snaps respectively last season. Wilkinson has been slightly better at guard than tackle in his career, but it’s unclear where the Bears are planning on playing him.

When the Bears’ offense was at its best in 2018, their offensive line was a big part of the reason why, but they’re down to just a pair of starters from that group in left guard James Daniels and center Cody Whitehair. Whitehair is a versatile player who has seen starts at left guard (15), right guard (3), and center (60) in 5 seasons since the Bears drafted him in the 2nd round in 2016 and he’s generally been an above average starter, earning an above average grade from PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league. Now in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2021. He’ll start the year at center, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him move to either guard spot for one reason or another.

Daniels, meanwhile, was just a 2nd round rookie in 2018 and held his own in 10 starts, before taking a leap forward in 16 starts his 2nd season in 2019, when he finished 19th among guards on PFF, especially playing well down the stretch, seeming to imply more promise to come. Unfortunately, Daniels’ third season in the league got off to an underwhelming start before he missed the final 11 games with injury, but he has a good chance to bounce back in 2021 if he can stay healthy. Like Whitehair, he has some history at center and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him see action there at some point this year, on an offensive line that could use several different combinations throughout the season, trying to find one that works.

Health will be key in general for this offensive line because their depth is very suspect. Having Daniels back should help this unit, but the Bears didn’t have an unusual amount of lost games to injury last season and injuries are part of the game, so the Bears can’t expect to have better health overall this season. If everyone can stay healthy, this could be a serviceable group, but it’s not hard to see how they could end up as one of the worst offensive lines in the league if a couple things go wrong.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

While the Bears didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season, they made sure to keep their top free agent, #1 wide receiver Allen Robinson, even if they had to guarantee him 17.88 million in a shrunken cap season (about 9.8% of the cap if he remains on the roster at his current number). A 7-year veteran, Robinson’s stats haven’t always jumped off the page, but he’s finished in the top-15 among wide receivers on PFF in 3 of his last 5 seasons and his per 16 game slash line of 84/1118/8 over the past 6 seasons is impressive for a player who has never had anything better than middling quarterback play. 

If Fields can get in the lineup early and impress as a rookie, Robinson could easily be the best quarterback he has ever had throwing him the football, which could also have the benefit of convincing Robinson, previously hesitant to sign a long-term deal, to stick around for the long haul. Only going into his age 28 season with a relatively limited injury history (all 16 games played in 4 of the past 6 seasons), Robinson should remain a #1 receiver for several more seasons. Robinson has benefitted from having at least 150 passes thrown his direction in 4 of 7 seasons in the league, but he’s also seen frequent double teams and his 7.64 yards per target average in his career is well above the average of the quarterbacks he’s played with.

Robinson should continue seeing a lot of targets and double teams this season because the Bears didn’t have the opportunity to upgrade their receiving corps and only added a 6th round pick (Dazz Newsome) on draft day. Instead, the Bears will be hoping to get more from some of the wide receivers they’ve drafted in recent years. Darnell Mooney, a 2020 5th round pick from Tulane, would seem to have the most potential of the bunch. Mooney did not look like a 5th round pick as a rookie, playing more than half of the snaps in every game except week one and earning a slightly above average grade from PFF, while finishing 2nd on the team in receptions (61), yards (631), targets (98), and third in touchdowns (4). 

The fact that the league let him fall to the 5th round may be indicative of a lower ceiling for Mooney than most rookies who produce like he did and his lack of explosive plays is a bit concerning, but he should continue playing a big role in this offense as a possession receiver and the de facto #2 wideout, even if only for lack of a better option. That could easily translate to improved counting stats for him in his second season in the league if he can get more consistent quarterback play.

Anthony Miller, a second round pick in 2018, was the highest drafted of the bunch, but that hasn’t translated to more than mediocre play, averaging just 1.18 yards per route run and 33.2 yards per game in his short career. He looks to be the #3 receiver by default and he could take a step forward in his 4th season in the league and put together a decent statistical season with more consistent play under center, but he could just as easily fall down the depth chart, as the Bears seem less than satisfied with him and reportedly explored the trade market for him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal.

Other options at wide receiver for the Bears include 2019 4th round pick Riley Ridley and 2018 7th round pick Javon Wims, but neither have done much in their limited careers thus far. Wims has operated as the 4th receiver the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.57 yards per route run over that time and has graded among PFF’s worst wide receivers, while Ridley hasn’t even been able to overtake Wims on the depth chart, with just 149 snaps played in 2 seasons in the league. 

Free agent addition Marquise Goodwin is a veteran option, but the 31-year-old journeyman has topped 30 catches just once in 8 seasons in the league and would only be a situational deep threat if he made the roster. The Bears also added fellow veteran wide receiver Damiere Byrd in free agency, but he’s not much more promising, as his 47/604/1 slash line when forced into action for a New England team with the thinnest receiving corps in the league last season more than doubled his career totals, as he was nothing more than a depth receiver in his first 4 seasons in the league. Byrd underwhelmed in his first extended action and has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, which is very underwhelming as well.

With question marks at wide receiver, the Bears figure to continue targeting their tight ends frequently in the passing game, something they did on 135 pass attempts (22.0%) last season. Veteran Jimmy Graham (76 targets) and rookie Cole Kmet (44 targets) were the top-2 at the position in targets, which they should remain in 2021, but those target numbers could easily be closer or even flipped. Graham was once one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and, never a good run blocker, he has seen his receiving production dwindle to 32.1 yards per game and 6.84 yards per target over the past 3 seasons. 

The 8 touchdowns Graham scored last season and his 6-7 frame would suggest that he could still be an effective red zone and short yardage target, but the fact that he had 3 or fewer touchdowns in 3 of his previous 5 seasons prior to last season, despite playing with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, suggests that he’s far from a lock to remain a red zone threat and his touchdown total will almost definitely fall, even if just from Kmet getting more involved. 

Kmet didn’t show much as a rookie, but the 2nd round pick was one of the best tight ends in his draft class and second seasons are almost always better than the first for talented tight ends like him. There is also a possibility the Bears release Graham and his non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary, which stands out like a sore thumb among ways the Bears could free up cap space. Either way, Kmet figures to see more targets this season, in a receiving corps that has a lot of question marks overall. 

Grade: B-

Running Backs

One target the Bears will get back is pass catching running back Tarik Cohen, who caught 203 passes from 2017-2019, including 150 in 2018 and 2019 combined, but then was limited to just 6 in 3 games before tearing his ACL last season. Cohen is expected to be back for week one of 2021, but he comes with a lot of uncertainty and not just because of his injury situation, but also because he’s been pretty inconsistent in his 4-year career. 

While Cohen had a dominant 2018 season as a receiver, averaging 7.97 yards per target and posting a 71/725/5 slash line, his yards per target has been a miniscule 4.97 in his other 3 seasons. On top of that, he hasn’t been that efficient as a runner either, averaging 4.17 yards per carry on an average of 5.18 carries per game. The 3-year, 17.25 million dollar extension the Bears gave Cohen before his ACL tear last year obviously suggests they view him as having a role long-term, but that may have changed with Montgomery breaking out last season and it doesn’t guarantee Cohen will fare well in that role if he continues seeing significant action.

In fact, it’s possible Cohen’s return could hurt this offense if he takes too many snaps away from David Montgomery, a 2019 3rd round pick who broke out as a three down running back in Cohen’s absence last season. Montgomery couldn’t get much going as a rookie, averaging 3.67 yards per carry on 242 carries, but that was in part because of lack of talent around him and his 2.33 yards per carry after contact suggested that Montgomery ran better than his overall YPC suggested. 

That was again the case in 2020, when Montgomery rushed for 1,070 yards and 8 touchdowns on 247 carries (4.37 YPC) with 3.15 yards per carry after contact and finished as PFF’s 9th ranked running back overall. Perhaps his biggest improvement from year one to year two was as a receiver, where he went from 25 catches and 5.28 yards per target to 54 catches and 6.44 yards per target. Cohen should still spell Montgomery on some passing downs, even if only because it’s the best time to get Montgomery some rest, but Montgomery should otherwise be a three down back.

Another threat to Montgomery’s workload is free agent acquisition Damien Williams. Williams was decent as a rotational back with the Chiefs in 2019, rushing for 4.49 yards per carry on 111 carries, but that was in large part due to the talent around him in Kansas City and, prior to joining the Chiefs in 2019, the veteran journeyman had averaged just 3.59 yards per carry. On top of that, Williams opted out of the 2020 season, adding even more uncertainty to his projection.

The Bears will almost definitely be hurting this offense by giving Williams more than a few touches per game, or by giving Cohen more than a few carries per game. Montgomery is clearly the second best offensive player on this team and should be used as close to a three down back as possible, without tiring him out. Even if they get better quarterback play this season, this offense has a long way to go before being a consistently effective unit and if they don’t use their best running back effectively, it will only make things worse.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

With the Bears still having question marks on offense, they will need their defense to continue playing at a high level if they’re going to be a real threat to make and be competitive in the post-season. However, there are reasons to suspect that they won’t be as good defensively next season. For one, defensive play on average tends to be significantly less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive play, meaning a team that ranks highly on offense is more likely to repeat that performance the following season than a team that ranks highly on defense. 

The main reason for this is, while an offense can be elevated by a quarterback playing at a high level and franchise quarterbacks tend not to change teams often, a defense typically needs 7-9 starters all playing at a high level to be an elite defense and it’s much tougher to have that every year than it is to have a consistent high level quarterback because, inevitably, key players on defense either regress or they leave in free agency or are unable to be retained for financial reasons.

That shows with the Bears, who have lost 3 of their top-4 players and 6 of their top-13 players in terms of snaps played from their dominant 2018 defense, and, despite that, the Bears still have among the least remaining cap space in the league as of this writing. We saw the Bears take a step back from the 1st ranked defense in first down rate allowed in 2018 to 8th and 9th ranked in 2019 and 2020 and this season I would expect them to take another step back as they have continued to shed talent on defense.

The strength of this defense is their front, which has largely retained it’s key players from 2018. In fact, they could be even better this season than 2020, with the return of defensive tackle Eddie Goldman from opt-out. The Bears lost some reserves at the interior defender spot this off-season, with Brent Urban (370 snaps), John Jenkins (223 snaps), and Roy Robertson-Harris (245 snaps) no longer with the team, but Goldman has a higher upside than any of those three. 

In 5 seasons prior to last year’s opt out, the 2015 2nd round pick had earned an above average grade from PFF in each seasons, including a career best 14th ranked finished among interior defenders in 2018, which is an outlier in his career, but also shows the peak for a player who is still only in his age 27 season. The 6-4 320 pounder is obviously a good run stuffer, but he’s not a bad pass rusher either, with 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 67 career games. Durability and conditioning are the concerns for him, especially after a year off, as he’s never played more than 608 snaps in a season, but he’ll be a welcome re-addition to a Bears team  that lacks to rotate players at his position anyway. He’ll primarily play on the nose in base packages, but has the pass rush ability to stay on the field in sub packages as well.

Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols led the Bears’ 3-man defensive line in snaps played last season with 795 and 618 and both figure to have significant roles again, even with Goldman returning. Hicks has been the lone every down player on this unit over the years, joining the Bears in 2016 as a free agent after being primarily a rotational player prior, and immediately developing into an above average every down player who has averaged 52.9 snaps per game in 68 games (all starts) in 5 seasons with the Bears.

However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that snap count scaled back noticeably, as Hicks is now going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he received his lowest grade from PFF since before breaking out with the Bears, back in 2014. He still earned about an average grade, but it was a steep drop off for a player who had finished in the top-36 among interior defenders on PFF in 4 straight seasons, including a dominant 2018 campaign in which he finished 4th at his position. He isn’t totally over the hill yet and he could bounce back a little bit from last year’s down year, especially if kept fresher by limiting his snap count, but he’s still a declining player whose best days are almost definitely behind him.

Nichols, meanwhile, actually ranked higher than Hicks last season, finishing as PFF’s 27th ranked interior defender on 618 snaps, holding up against the run, while adding 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate. A 5th round pick in 2018, Nichols saw some action in the first 2 seasons of his career, but averaged just 387 snaps per season over the two seasons and was highly inconsistent. His improvement in his third season may be him permanently turning a corner, but he’s a bit of a one-year wonder and is not necessarily a guarantee to repeat last season’s play. He figures to start in base packages at 3-4 defensive end with Goldman on the nose and Hicks opposite him and all three figure to see significant sub package action as well.

Reserve Mario Edwards was also retained this off-season and, on a per snap basis, he was as good as anyone on this defense last year, albeit on just 256 snaps in 15 games. Edwards was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2015 and showed a lot of promise in his first season in the league, finishing 35th among interior defenders on PFF on 598 snaps, but then he missed almost all of his second season in 2016 with injury and his career got derailed. 

Edwards was not the same on 475 snaps upon his return in 2017, which caused the Raiders to cut him ahead of the 2018 season, starting Edwards on a journey bouncing around the league, seeing action with the Giants, Saints, and Bears over the past 3 seasons, but not playing more than 293 snaps in a season with any of them. Edwards didn’t make much of an impact with the Giants or Saints, but really impressed in limited action with the Bears. 

Despite his limited playing time, he ended up with 4 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while also playing the run at a high level, and he seemed to earn more playing time as the season went on for his efforts, with 152 of his 256 snaps coming in the second half of the season. Edwards is suspended for the first two games of the 2021 season, but could see a further expanded role upon his return, after being locked up by the Bears on a 3-year, 11.55 million dollar deal this off-season, even after the announcement of his suspension. Edwards is far from a guarantee to be as efficient as he was last season, but he could easily remain an effective reserve in a larger role.

The Bears also brought in veteran reserve Angelo Blackson this off-season to give them some additional depth, but he’s struggled throughout his 6-year career, since being drafted by the Titans in the 4th round in 2015. Over those 6 seasons, he’s also played for the Texans and most recently the Cardinals in 2020, with whom he set a new career high in snaps with 550. However, he struggled mightily, finishing 126th out of 138 eligible interior defenders, a year after finishing 120th out of 121 eligible on 427 snaps in 2019 with the Texans. He should not be considered a roster lock and, even if he makes the roster, he should get more than a very limited rotational role. In a deep position group, he won’t be expected to play much, but there is still concern with long-time top interior defender Akiem Hicks seemingly on the decline.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Bears defense hasn’t been quite as good over the past two seasons as they were in their dominant 2018 campaign, but one player who hasn’t fallen off is Khalil Mack, who has remained perennially one of the top defensive players in the league. Mack’s acquisition from the Raiders before that 2018 campaign is a big part of what led to the Bears having that dominant defensive season. The price has been steep, as they gave up their first round pick in back-to-back years and have already paid him 73.7 million over 3 years as part of a contract extension that is set to pay him 154.846 million over 7 years, which is a factor in the Bears’ cap issues and their lack of blue chip young talent, but Mack has arguably been worth it. 

Mack hasn’t really gotten the Defensive Player of the Year attention that he got in 2018 over the past couple seasons with the Bears’ defense no longer as dominant, but that’s not his fault, as he finished last season as PFF’s #1 ranked edge defender, continuing a streak of seven consecutive seasons in the top-13 among edge defenders on PFF to begin his career, since being selected 5th overall by the Raiders in 2014. He also already had a Defensive Player of the Year award to his name, winning in 2016 with the Raiders. Even as good as most fans know he is, he might be underrated.

His sack numbers don’t always jump off the page, but he’s arguably the best run stopping edge defender in the league and he has added 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure in his career as well, despite being one of the most double teamed players in the league and dropping into coverage on about 10% of his pass defense snaps, another aspect of the game where he impresses. His age is starting to become a concern in his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of declining, he’s been incredibly durable in his career, missing just 2 games in 7 seasons and averaging 58.7 snaps per game, and even if he does decline a little, he likely would still remain one of the top players in the league at his position.

On the other side, however, Robert Quinn was a massive disappointment in his first season in Chicago, after signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar contract last off-season that guaranteed him 30 million in total, including his entire 11.6 million dollar salary for 2021. Quinn has typically struggled against the run in his career, but, prior to last season, he had always been a consistently good pass rusher, totaling 64 sacks, 67 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 94 games over the previous 7 seasons from 2013-2019. The idea was simple: plug him in opposite the frequently double teamed Khalil Mack and either the defense would have to pull some of the double teams off of Mack or face a consistently good pass rusher one-on-one regularly. 

However, it didn’t work that way at all, as Mack continued to be one of the most double teamed players in the league and Quinn could not make the most of frequent single blocking, managing just 2 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate, while taking up a significant chunk of the cap for one of the most cap strapped teams in the league. Combined with his struggles against the run, Quinn finished the season as PFF’s 85th ranked edge defender out of 125 eligible on 548 snaps. He could bounce back in 2021, but he’s also going into his age 31 season, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him and he could easily continue struggling. With his salary locked in, the Bears will have no choice but to hope he can bounce back.

Mack rarely comes off the field, so depth isn’t that important, but the Bears signed veteran journeyman Jeremiah Attaochu to replace fellow veteran journeyman Barkevious Mingo, who played 391 snaps as their top reserve last season. Attaochu should be a minor upgrade in a similar role, as Mingo was underwhelming, while Attaochu has consistently been a good reserve throughout his career. He’s only averaged 285 snaps per season in 7 seasons in the league since the Chargers drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014, in part due to injuries, but he’s been a capable run defender and has added 20.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 74 career games, despite his limited action. He should be able to continue that into 2021 in a similar role.

The Bears also brought back James Vaughters and Trevis Gipson, who played 243 snaps and 47 snaps respectively in the first significant action of both of their careers, but both of them figure to be non-factors if they can even make the final roster. Gipson, a 5th round pick in 2020, has more upside between the two, but he’s still highly unproven, while Vaughters went undrafted went back in 2015 and had played just 26 career defensive snaps before getting a chance at minor action last season. The Bears will need Khalil Mack to continue playing well and staying healthy to elevate an otherwise underwhelming group, but Mack is about as close to a sure thing as any defensive player in the league outside of Aaron Donald.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith remain from their dominant 2018 defense, but their careers have gone in different directions since then. Trevathan was PFF’s 23rd ranked off ball linebacker in 2018, as part of a stretch of seven straight seasons as a starter where he earned an average or better grade from PFF, but he fell all the way to 84th out of 99 eligible off ball linebackers in 2020 and now heads into his age 31 season. It’s also worth noting he has a significant injury history as well, missing 32 games over the past 7 seasons, and he seems to be especially slowed after his most recent injury which limited him to just 9 games in 2019. He’s another contract the Bears may be regretting, re-signing him on a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal last off-season that will guarantee him 7.125 million in 2021.

Meanwhile, Smith has developed into one of the better middle linebackers in the league, after earning a middling grade from PFF as a rookie in 2018. The former 8th overall pick also earned a middling grade in 2019, but he broke out in his third season in the league in 2020, finishing 20th among off ball linebackers on PFF. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he entered the league with a ton of upside and, still only going into his age 24 season, could even get better going forward and develop into one of the top off ball linebackers in the league. That’s far from a guarantee, but he has a huge ceiling.

The Bears will need a good season from Smith, not just because Trevathan is declining, but also because they completely lack depth at the position as well. They used to have good depth, but lost Nick Kwaitkowski and Kevin Pierre-Louis last off-season and didn’t replace either of them, leaving inexperienced 2018 4th round pick Joel Iyiegbuniwe as their top reserve. Both Smith and Trevathan played all 16 games and hardly ever came off the field last season, so it wasn’t really an issue, but that good injury luck could easily not remain in 2021 and Iyiegbuniwe is basically just as inexperienced as he was going into last season, having played just 51 snaps on defense in 3 seasons in the league. The Bears also signed veteran journeyman Christian Jones this off-season, but he’s earned a below average grade from PFF in 4 of the past 5 seasons and is now going into his age 30 season. Roquan Smith elevates an otherwise underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The unit on this defense that has lost by far the most since their dominant 2018 season is their secondary, which was arguably the best unit on that defense. Their top three cornerbacks Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukmara, and slot man Bryce Callahan finished 8th, 13th, and 11th respectively among cornerbacks on PFF, while starting safeties Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos ranked 1st and 10th respectively. The decline began when Callahan and Amos signed contracts with the Broncos and Packers respectively after their big 2018 seasons and were replaced by significantly inferior players in Buster Skrine and Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix.

Clinton-Dix was solid in 2019, but Skrine struggled mightily and Clinton-Dix also left as a free agent following 2019, as he had only been signed to a one-year deal. The Bears replaced him with fellow veteran Tashaun Gipson, who wasn’t a significant downgrade, but the exodus continued with cornerback Prince Amukamara becoming a cap casualty after having a significantly worse season in 2019 compared to 2018. 

Fuller and Jackson also saw their play fall off after 2018, with Fuller finishing 71st and 55th among cornerbacks on PFF in the two seasons and Jackson finishing 49th and 67th among safeties. Jackson still remains a part of this defense, but Fuller’s decline and large salary led to him becoming the next member of this secondary to leave town, as he was released this off-season ahead of a non-guaranteed 14 million dollar salary for 2021, replaced by the far cheaper, but far less reliable Desmond Trufant.

Trufant will start outside at cornerback opposite 2020 2nd round pick Jaylon Johnson, who was originally drafted to replace Amukamara. Johnson had an up and down rookie season, getting off to a hot start and compiling 13 pass deflections on the season (4th in the NFL), but he also didn’t have an interception and had a propensity to give up big plays, leading to him finishing the season below average on PFF, 91st among 136 eligible cornerbacks. Johnson could easily take a step forward in 2021, but that’s not a given.

Trufant, meanwhile, is coming off of an even worse season, finishing 133rd among 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF across 324 snaps in an injury plagued season. Trufant was one of the better cornerbacks in the league in his prime and had earned an above average grade from PFF in each of his first 7 seasons in the league before the last season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also going into age 30 season and has a growing injury history, including missing 17 of 32 games over the past two seasons. He wasn’t a terrible flyer on a relatively cheap 1-year, 1.075 million dollar deal, but the Bears will be relying on him as a sure starter and he can be relied on in that capacity.

The Bears also lost Buster Skrine this off-season and, though he struggled throughout his two seasons as the replacement for Bryce Callahan on the slot, the Bears didn’t replace him and instead will be counting on some long shots to step up. Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley are recent draft picks, going in the 5th round in 2020 and the 6th round in 2019 respectively, but they weren’t high draft picks and both struggled in the first significant action of either of their careers last season, while playing just 136 snaps and 209 snaps respectively. Both have some theoretical upside, but it’s hard to rely on either in a significant capacity.

The Bears will get Artie Burns back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2020, but he’s hard to rely on as well, as he was nothing more than a flyer when the Bears signed him last off-season and that was before his injury. Burns was a first round pick of the Steelers back in 2016 and was a solid starter in his first two seasons in the league, but injuries, ineffectiveness, and issues with the coaching staff led to him playing just 375 snaps in 2018 and 2019 combined and the Steelers letting him walk as a free agent last off-season. Still only going into his age 26 season, Burns may still have upside, but he’s going to be four years removed from his last season as a starter in 2017 and he’s spent a lot more time sidelined with injury than actually playing since then. The Bears will need one of their long shot cornerbacks to step up for this to even be a serviceable group.

At safety, Eddie Jackson remains from this 2018 defense, but, as I mentioned, he saw his play drop off pretty significantly over the past two seasons, earning middling grades in 2019 and 2020 after a dominant 2018. A 4th round pick in 2017, Jackson’s 2018 campaign stands out as an obvious outlier when you look at his career, as he’s been about a middling starter in his other three campaigns, so, while he could be an above average starter in 2021, it’s hard to expect him to resemble his 2018 form.

Fellow starting safety Tashaun Gipson is an even less impressive option. Gipson is plenty experienced, with 120 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, including all 16 for the Bears last season, but he’s only a middling starter and his age is becoming a concern, with him heading into his age 31 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline this season, in which case he would likely be a liability on the backend. This is a very underwhelming secondary overall, especially in comparison to their dominant unit from just a few years ago.

Grade: C+

Kicker/Punter

The Bears had above average special teams in 2020, ranking 8th in special teams DVOA. One of their biggest strengths was place kicking, with kicker Cairo Santos earning PFF’s 3rd highest grade and making 36/37 extra points and 30/32 field goals. However, there is a lot of reason to suspect he won’t be able to match that in 2021. Not only does he have just a 80.6% field goal percentage aside from last season, but he played for five different teams in three seasons prior to 2020, including a 2019 season with the Titans where he made just 4 of 9 field goals. He’s also been underwhelming as a kickoff specialist across his career.

The Bears clearly believe he’s turned a corner as a place kicker permanently, locking him up with a 3-year, 9 million dollar contract that guarantees him 4.575 million, despite his history, but it’s still highly unlikely Santos will be as good again in 2021. He could still remain a solid kicker and is not necessarily going to regress to his 2018-2019 level of play, but this is an obvious area where the Bears are likely to be noticeably worse in 2021. Undrafted free agent Brian Johnson was added behind him, but Santos’ contract ensures he will be their kicker in 2021, with Johnson competing for a practice squad spot at most.

Punter Pat O’Donnell also seems likely to be unchallenged, with no competition for him added this off-season, despite finishing below average on PFF in 3 of the past 4 seasons, including a 2020 in which he finished dead last among eligible punters on PFF, which was a big part of the reason why the Bears had negative punting DVOA last season. With Santos likely regressing in 2021 and O’Donnell likely to continue struggling, there are concerns with this group.

Grade: C+

Return Specialists

Along with place kicking, kickoff returns were a big strength of the Bears last season, unsurprising, given that they had one of the greatest kickoff return specialists of all time in Cordarrelle Patterson, who averaged 29.9 yards per return and finished as PFF’s highest ranked return man overall. Patterson is gone, however, and the Bears don’t have a clear replacement for him, especially since they’ll need to find a new punt returner as well. Their punt return game was below average last season in DVOA and it won’t be hard for them to be better in 2021, but they still lost every player who returned a punt for them last season and will need to find a replacement, alongside replacing Patterson.

Running back Tarik Cohen has returned both kickoffs (31) and punts (96) in his career, but he is coming off of a serious injury and the Bears may not want him to be used in both roles, in addition to his offensive role. Rookie wide receiver Dazz Newsome returned 48 punts for 11.1 yards per and a touchdown in college, but he returned just 7 kickoffs. One option would be to have Newsome return punts and Cohen return kickoffs, but Cohen has been a lot more effective on punts, with a 10.3 yards per return average, as opposed to 20.3 on kickoff returns. 

Veterans Marquise Goodwin and Damien Williams have some return experience, but their career averages of 21.3 yards per on 22 kickoff returns and 19.5 yards per on 30 kickoff returns respectively are underwhelming and they haven’t returned a kick since 2015 and 2017 respectively, so they would likely struggle in 2021, in their age 29 and age 31 seasons respectively. It won’t be hard for the Bears to be better in punt returns in 2021, but they should see a steep dropoff on kickoff returns, regardless of who wins the job.

Grade: B

Special Teamers

The Bears had more turn-over than most in the rest of their special teams, losing four of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on special teams in 2020. Some of those, like Barkevious Mingo (365 snaps) and Brent Urban (157 snaps), who finished below average on PFF, will not be missed, but Demetrius Harris (162 snaps) was PFF’s 7th ranked special teamer, while Sherrick McManis (200 snaps) also finished above average on PFF. 

The Bears will get some help from reinforcements, as veteran linebacker Christian Jones has some experience on special teams and is coming off of the best special teams season of his career across 158 snaps, as is tight end Jesse James across 170 snaps, but their only other special teams addition this off-season was linebacker Austin Calitro, who has earned a below average grade from PFF in all three seasons in which he’s seen action on special teams.

Fortunately, the Bears top-5 returning special teamers in terms of snaps played all earned above average grades from PFF, DeAndre Houston-Carson (364 snaps), Joel Iyiegbuniwe (363 snaps), Ryan Nall (287 snaps), Josh Woods (266 snaps), and JP Holtz (207 snaps), with Woods leading the way as PFF’s 21st ranked special teamer. Nall and Iyiegbuniwe are one-year wonders on special teams, but the other three are all proven over multiple seasons.

They also have Deon Bush (189 snaps) and James Vaughters (151 snaps) who gave them decent play last season and should be able to continue that into 2021. This group might not be as good as a year ago, but they should still be a solid group overall and they’ll benefit from having the same coaching under Chris Taylor, who has 10 years of experience as an NFL special teams coach, including the past 3 seasons with the Bears.

Grade: B

Conclusion

Going into the off-season, the Bears seemed to be in prime position to decline from the past two seasons, as an aging, veteran, expensive, defense heavy roster remained without a quarterback and seemed to be without the financial flexibility or draft capital to add a quarterback or to address the other needs on both sides of the ball. Things did not get better as players like Charles Leno, Bobby Massie, and Kyle Fuller were released for financial reasons, while declining veteran quarterback Andy Dalton was given a significant sum of money to likely be their starting quarterback. 

However, the Bears lucked out on draft day when Ohio State’s Justin Fields dropped out of the top-10 of the draft, allowing the Bears to move up from 20 to 11 to select him. The Bears had to give up all but one of their other picks in the top-150, as well as a future first round pick, but it will be worth it if Fields pans out. That’s far from a guarantee, but Fields gives this team a much higher upside for 2021 than anyone else the Bears could have realistically added in the first round.

If Fields and/or Dalton struggle as the starting quarterback, there are enough problems around on both sides of the ball for this team that they could end up among the worst in the league, which would lead to them handing the Giants a high draft pick in next year’s draft to complete the Fields trade. However, if Fields has an Offensive Rookie of the Year caliber season and plays like a top-15 quarterback, this team could still find itself very much in contention for a playoff spot in the NFC, possibly even a division title if a few things go right in their division (including Aaron Rodgers leaving). It’s possible no team enters 2021 with a wider range of realistic scenarios. I will have a final prediction for the Bears at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: Not much changes for the Bears, who are unlikely to get much impact from their special teams either way.

9/4/21 Update: Starting Justin Fields from the beginning of the season would give the Bears their best chance to make the post-season, but the Bears are sticking with the veteran Andy Dalton at least for week one. Even if Fields take over the job early, he would need a strong performance for this team to be a playoff contender, given the state of their offensive line, who will also be without Teven Jenkins due to injury, and their declining defense, which will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan for at least the beginning of the season.

Prediction: 6-11 3rd in NFC North

2021 NFL Mock Draft (2nd and 3rd rounds)

Updated: 4/30/21

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

34. New York Jets – OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)

35. Atlanta Falcons – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

36. Miami Dolphins – RB Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

37. Philadelphia Eagles – MLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)

38. Cincinnati Bengals – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

39. Carolina Panthers – OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)

40. Denver Broncos – OLB Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)

41. Detroit Lions – WR Terrace Marshall (LSU)

42. New York Giants – OLB Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Asante Samuel (Florida State)

44. Dallas Cowboys – S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

45. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth (Penn State)

46. New England Patriots – WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)

47. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky)

48. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Aaron Robinson (Central Florida)

49. Arizona Cardinals – WR Rondale Moore (Purdue)

50. Miami Dolphins – OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State)

51. Washington Football Team – QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

52. Chicago Bears – OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)

53. Tennessee Titans – OT Samuel Cosmi (Texas)

54. Indianapolis Colts – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

55. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Kyle Trask (Florida)

56. Seattle Seahawks – CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)

57. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

58. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Joseph Ossai (Texas)

59. Cleveland Browns – DT Levi Onwuzurike (Washington)

60. New Orleans Saints – CB Robert Rochell (Central Arkansas)

61. Buffalo Bills – RB Michael Carter (North Carolina)

62. Green Bay Packers – WR Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Elijah Molden (Washington)

65. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)

66. Minnesota Vikings – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

67. Houston Texans – C Josh Myers (Ohio State)

68. Atlanta Falcons – DE Patrick Jones (Pittsburgh)

69. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Jabril Cox (LSU)

70. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)

71. Denver Broncos – OLB Chris Rumph (Duke)

72. Detroit Lions – MLB Baron Browning (Ohio State)

73. Carolina Panthers – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

74. Washington Football Team – OT Liam Eichenburg (Notre Dame)

75. Dallas Cowboys – TE Tommy Tremble (Notre Dame)

76. New York Giants – G Jackson Carmen (Clemson)

77. Los Angeles Chargers – RB Trey Sermon (Ohio State)

78. Minnesota Vikings – DT Daviyon Nixon (Iowa)

79. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota)

80. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

81. Miami Dolphins – S Jamar Johnson (Indiana)

82. Washington Football Team – WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Western Michigan)

83. Chicago Bears – CB Paulson Adebo (Stanford)

84. Dallas Cowboys – DE Rashad Weaver (Pittsburgh)

85. Tennessee Titans – WR Dyami Brown (North Carolina)

86. Minnesota Vikings – CB Ambry Thomas (Michigan)

87. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Walker Little (Stanford)

88. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Jordan Smith (UAB)

89. Cleveland Browns – MLB Chazz Surratt (North Carolina)

90. Minnesota Vikings – DE Dayo Odeyingbo (Vanderbilt)

91. Cleveland Browns – WR Josh Palmer (Tennessee)

92. Green Bay Packers – OT Brady Christensen (BYU)

93. Buffalo Bills – TE Hunter Long (Boston College)

94. Baltimore Ravens – OT James Hudson (Cincinnati)

95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

96. New England Patriots – MLB Dylan Moses (Alabama)

97. Los Angeles Chargers – G Aaron Banks (Notre Dame)

98. New Orleans Saints – S Richie Grant (UCF)

99. Dallas Cowboys – CB Shakur Brown (Michigan State)

100. Tennessee Titans – TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

101. Detroit Lions – QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

102. San Francisco 49ers – WR Amari Rodgers (Clemson)

103. Los Angeles Rams – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

104. Baltimore Ravens – WR Anthony Schwartz (Auburn)

105. New Orleans Saints – DT Alim McNeil (NC State)

2021 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 4/29/21

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

Unless I hear otherwise, I expect Trevor Lawrence to be a Jacksonville Jaguar, as everyone else does. One of the most polished and complete draft prospects of the past few decades, Lawrence is an obvious choice for the Jaguars, even with other good quarterback prospects on the board. With as much financial flexibility and draft capital as any team in the league over the next few off-seasons, the Jaguars could get a lot better in a hurry if Lawrence is as advertised.

2. New York Jets – QB Zach Wilson (BYU)

By trading Sam Darnold, the Jets confirmed months of expectations that this pick would be a quarterback. The general consensus seems to be that Zach Wilson will be that quarterback and the 49ers’ willingness to trade three first round picks to move up to 3 suggests that it’s a bit of an open secret around the league who the Jets are planning on selecting. This is another one where I’m going with the consensus unless I hear otherwise as the Jets have no real reason to be secretive about this selection.

3. San Francisco 49ers – QB Mac Jones (Alabama)

With most expecting Lawrence and Wilson to go 1 and 2, the draft officially starts at 3, where the 49ers are expected to take a quarterback after giving up a king’s ransom to move up from 12 to 3 to put themselves in range for a top quarterback prospect. Who that quarterback prospect will be is the big question, as arguments can be made for Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones here. I suspect Jones would be rated the worst of the three if you polled decision makers around the league, but the 49ers have always valued players differently under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch and have never been shy about being aggressive to get their guy, even if that means paying a price no other team would have paid. 

Shanahan values accuracy above anything and in that aspect Jones is a level ahead of both Lance and Fields and is arguably the most accurate quarterback in the draft outside of Lawrence, so it makes sense that Shanahan would feel the need to be aggressive to move up and get him. Jones doesn’t have the arm strength or the mobility of the other top quarterback prospects, but those are secondary attributes for Shanahan. He may see Jones as his next Matt Ryan, a quarterback who he guided to an MVP season and a Super Bowl appearance as the offensive coordinator in Atlanta. Fields or Lance are still possibilities, but for the 49ers to give up what they did to move up, they have to be excited about someone and Jones’ accuracy is likely to be the most exciting attribute to Shanahan of the three quarterbacks.

The other question here is what will happen with Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers’ current quarterback. Garoppolo is still a starting caliber quarterback and the 49ers decision to move up for a quarterback seems like more about a desire to get a young high upside player on a cheap rookie deal, rather than paying significant money to a quarterback in Garoppolo who is injury prone and may have reached his ceiling as a player. 

Reports say the 49ers are asking for too much for Jimmy Garoppolo, but without many obvious suitors in a trade, it’s very possible that asking price comes down on draft day. Alternatively, the 49ers could keep Garoppolo past draft day, see how Jones develops, and then potentially move Garoppolo before the season or during the season to a desperate team who loses a quarterback to a season ending injury. I’ve had versions of this mock draft where the 49ers traded him, but ultimately in this one, I couldn’t find an obvious place to send him at a reasonable price that the 49ers would accept, so he stays a 49er for the time being.

4. Denver Broncos (TRADE) – QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

The Broncos are one potential team for Garoppolo’s services, but they have other ideas in this mock draft. The Falcons could stay put here and take a quarterback of the future to develop behind Matt Ryan or stud tight end Kyle Pitts to give Matt Ryan another weapon, but it sounds like they’re willing to move down for the right price, which would make sense because their biggest needs are on defense and on the interior of the offensive line and they would be reaching significantly to address either of those needs here at 4. 

The Broncos sit at 9, probably out of range for a top quarterback prospect, but close enough that they wouldn’t have to give up the farm to move up and they have the kind of roster around the quarterback that suggests they might be a quarterback away from being a real contender. Drew Lock has shown some flashes in two years in the league, but ultimately is one of the least inspiring starting quarterback options in the league and either Trey Lance or Justin Fields would represent a significant upgrade.

The Broncos wouldn’t have to give up multiple future first round picks to get this trade done like the 49ers did to move up from 12 to 3. Instead, they give up one future first round pick, as well as their 3rd round pick this year, and they throw in Drew Lock, who wouldn’t be needed in Denver with a new young franchise quarterback in town, but could be a worthwhile developmental backup for the Falcons, who do need to start planning for the future after Matt Ryan and currently only have Matt Schaub, who is even older than Ryan, as their backup quarterback. 

Which one of Lance or Fields the Broncos prefers is unknown, but I would guess that Lance’s raw physical tools would be most appealing to John Elway, who may see a lot of himself in Lance’s game. If he can be as good as advertised, this team could be a contender very quickly and they have the infrastructure around the quarterback that Lance wouldn’t have to do it all himself as a rookie. If they like Lance or Fields enough, that is worth the price to move up, for a team without many pressing needs. Lance would compete immediately with stopgap quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and could be a week one starter.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Jamarr Chase (LSU)

The Bengals benefit the most from the run on quarterbacks as they have last year’s #1 pick Joe Burrow under center already and can sit back and likely have their choice of the top non-quarterbacks in the draft at 5. I’ve had offensive tackle as a bigger need than pass catcher in the past, so I’ve given the Bengals Penei Sewell when available, but the addition of Riley Reiff in free agency changes my thinking here. Reiff is only on a one-year deal and could move inside to guard, so they still need offensive tackle help, but it’s not as pressing of a need anymore and can be addressed later in the draft. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals did nothing to upgrade their receiving corps this off-season and are badly hurting for pass catching options behind Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. I’ve had this between Chase and Kyle Pitts in the past and even had Pitts here with my last pick, but it’s sounding like the traditional position value with Chase is going to win out. Pitts is a truly rare tight end position, but Chase is one of the best wide receiver prospects in years as well.

6. Miami Dolphins – OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)

The Dolphins might have telegraphed this pick by trading guard Ereck Flowers to Washington in a salary dump. Sewell isn’t a guard, but he could play tackle and push Robert Hunt inside to guard. With Chase looking like the pick at 5 to the Bengals, the Dolphins could easily be targeting an offensive line upgrade. They started three rookie offensive linemen last season, but still need help upfront after ranking well below average as a group.

7. New England Patriots (TRADE) – QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)

The Patriots are another team that could make a move for Jimmy Garoppolo on or before draft day, but they’re unlikely to want to give up a significant draft pick to acquire a quarterback as highly paid as Garoppolo. Instead, it’s likely they’ll find a cheaper quarterback prospect through the draft. They’re unlikely to have one of the first round quarterbacks fall into their laps at 15, so they’d likely wait until day two to select their quarterback in that situation, but if one of the top quarterbacks falls out of the top-6 or so and it’s a quarterback they have a high grade on, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them move up to get him. 

After their free agency splurge, the Patriots don’t have many pressing needs and adding a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal will allow them to continue being aggressive in free agency going forward and to keep the talented players they sign for the long-term. The Patriots won’t give up the farm to move up, but they won’t have to just to move up from 15 to 7. In fact, by the trade value chart, the Patriots would only have to give up their second round pick to get this done. 

Trades up for quarterbacks tend to be much more expensive, but the Patriots could still move cornerback Stephon Gilmore in a trade to acquire another premium draft pick, with Gilmore going into the final year of his contract and wanting a top price extension, something the Patriots are unlikely to give a cornerback in his 30s, especially given that cornerback is arguably their deepest position. Gilmore was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 and will still have a significant trade market after a down 2020, so moving him in a trade that enables the Patriots to move up and draft a quarterback would make sense. 

The Cardinals stand out as a team with enough cap space to add Gilmore and give him a significant extension and with the need for a top flight cornerback to potentially push them over the edge as a contender. The Patriots could acquire the Cardinals’ second round pick for Gilmore and essentially double the price needed to move up from 15 and 7 and with three picks in the fourth round they could easily throw one of those in as well. 

The Patriots don’t trade up much on draft day, but they’ve done it before for guys they really like and this is a way they could do it at a reasonable price, without mortgaging the rest of this year’s draft or giving away a first round pick next year. Fields would compete immediately for the starting job with Cam Newton, who the Patriots would owe significantly less money to if he rides the pine all next season, and Fields would likely make starts at some point as a rookie, even if not week one. For the Lions, the rationale for wanting to move down is obvious as they have pressing needs all over the field and should be looking to accumulate as many picks as possible. If a top quarterback prospect falls to them at 7, they’ll have the opportunity to do just that, with teams looking to jump the Panthers for a quarterback.

8. Carolina Panthers – TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)

The Panthers are still in the market for a quarterback, but are unlikely to be aggressive and trade up for a quarterback, after trading a second round pick next year to acquire Sam Darnold and attempt to rehabilitate the 2018 3rd overall pick’s career after his first three seasons were spent in a disastrous situation with the Jets. With all of the top quarterback prospects gone, the Panthers will focus elsewhere. 

Fortunately, with five quarterbacks going in the top-7, the Panthers have arguably the top non-quarterback in the draft in tight end Kyle Pitts fall into their laps at 8 and he happens to fill a massive need as well. Pitts could go earlier than this and it would be a surprise to see the Panthers pass on him if he’s available and the quarterbacks aren’t. Whoever their future quarterback is, he will be helped immensely by having one of the top tight end prospects in decades to throw to and it’s hard to find a team in bigger need of a team. Panthers tight ends caught 27 passes total in 2020. Pitts would have a good chance to double that total by himself as a rookie.

9. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)

The Falcons’ trade down works to perfection as they still have their pick of the top defensive players in the draft, with only offensive players off the board at this point. It’s not a strong defensive class at the top, but Surtain has a good case to be the first defensive player off the board and he would fill a significant need for the Falcons, who need to add a third cornerback to go with Isaiah Oliver and AJ Terrell, two young highly drafted cornerbacks who have been inconsistent to this point in their career.

10. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – WR Devonta Smith (Alabama)

The Lions originally moved down from 15 to 7, picking up several extra picks to facilitate the Patriots’ move up for a quarterback, but similar to the Dolphins, the Lions could use some of those extra picks to move back up for a player they have their eyes on. In this scenario, that player is Devonta Smith, who would fill a massive need for the Lions at wide receiver and almost definitely would be gone by the 15th pick, possibly 11th to the Giants one pick after this. 

The Cowboys are likely targeting top cornerback prospect Patrick Surtain at 10, but if he’s not available, I could see them moving down, accumulating extra picks, and picking another defensive player later in the first round. The Lions give up a 3rd and 4th round pick to make their move up, but considering they got two second round picks and a 4th to move down from 7 to 15, that’s a very reasonable price to move back up and take the player they easily could have selected at 7. 

11. New York Giants – G Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)

While Sewell is the best pure left tackle in the draft, there is an argument that Slater is going to be the best offensive lineman from this draft class. Slater’s issue is he lacks the ideal size for a left tackle, but he could move inside to guard or center and be a perennial Pro-Bowl caliber player at that position. After using a first and third round pick on an offensive tackle in last year’s draft, the interior is a much bigger need for the Giants. Slater would be an immediate upgrade at either center or right guard for a team that needs to get tougher upfront. 

12. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)

The Eagles have had a wild road to ending up with the 12th pick. Originally picking 6th, the Eagles reportedly had the opportunity to trade spots with the Dolphins who were picking 3rd, but opted against it when they learned that their target, Zach Wilson, would likely go one pick earlier to the Jets. With Wilson unavailable and the Eagles seemingly uninterested in any of the top quarterback prospects, the Eagles instead committed to starting Jalen Hurts at quarterback in 2021 and facilitated the 49ers’ trade up from 12th to 3rd with the Dolphins, allowing the Dolphins to only have to move down to 6 like they would have if the Eagles had moved up to 3 and acquiring a future first round pick from Miami to move from 6 down to the 49ers’ previous spot at 12. 

The Eagles could have filled a big need with one of the top pass catchers in the draft at 6, but they have pressing needs all over the field, so it was smart of them to move down and accumulate another first round pick next year, as this is more than a one-year rebuild. They also will still be able to add a pass catcher at 12 if Jaylen Waddle is still available, which he has a good chance to be. The Eagles used several draft picks on wide receivers last year, including first round pick Jalen Reagor, but anyone who watched them this season knows they still badly need help at the position, with no pass catcher topping 539 receiving yards and Reagor being the only one on the team resembling a long-term starting option.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)

The Chargers may try to trade up for Penei Sewell if he starts to slip because left tackle is their biggest need and Sewell is the consensus top player at that position in the draft, but if they can’t move up, Christian Darrisaw seems like an obvious decision for the Chargers at 13. Left tackle is a glaring hole for this team and as the #2 offensive tackle in the draft class, Darrisaw would be a solid value in the top-15. He could give Justin Herbert and the Chargers a long-term blindside protector for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings – DE Kwity Paye (Michigan)

It’s obvious the Vikings need defensive line help, as they didn’t have a player who finished the season with the team who had more than 3.5 sacks on the year and were also constantly blown away by the run. They’ll be stouter against the run with Dalvin Tomlinson coming in as a free agent and Michael Pierce coming back after an opt out and their edge rush will be better with Danielle Hunter coming back from an injury that cost him all of 2020, but they still desperately need a starting edge defender opposite Hunter. Paye can be that guy and has the size to move inside and rush the passer from the interior in sub packages as well.

15. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)

The Cowboys miss out on top cornerback prospect Patrick Surtain at 10, but they are able to move down, accumulate extra picks, and still take the #2 cornerback in the class at 15. The Cowboys had one of the worst cornerback groups in the league last season and, with Chidobe Awuzie signing with the Bengals, things are even worse at the position now. If Horn happens to be off the board by this point, the Cowboys would then likely turn their attention to the defensive end position, which is also a position of significant need.

16. Washington Football Team (TRADE) – MLB Micah Parsons (Penn State)

Micah Parsons is a potential top-10 pick, but off-the-field concerns and offensive players being pushed up could cause Parsons to fall on draft day. If he falls out of the top-15, I could see a team making a move up for him. The Cardinals don’t need him, having used their first round pick on linebacker Isaiah Simmons in last year’s draft, but they do need extra picks, having traded away their 2nd round pick for Stephon Gilmore, their 3rd round pick for Rodney Hudson, and their 4th round pick to complete last year’s DeAndre Hopkins trade. Washington overpays a little bit by the trade value chart by giving up a third round pick, but, if Parsons is highly rated enough, Washington will see that as worth it, especially given that they have an extra third round pick from trade of Trent Williams to the 49ers.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – G Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC)

The Raiders inexplicably dismantled their offensive line this off-season, initially cutting center Rodney Hudson, right guard Gabe Jackson, and right tackle Trent Brown, highly paid offensive linemen who are part of a line that has been dominant when healthy, before realizing that they could get trade value for all three, sending them to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Patriots respectively for draft picks. The Raiders added some cheaper replacements this off-season, but could use help at every spot except left tackle. A versatile lineman like Alijah Vera-Tucker would make a lot of sense in the middle of the first round. Guard will probably be his best spot in the NFL, but he would fill an immediate need at right guard and profiles as an above average starter for years to come.

18. Miami Dolphins – DE Zaven Collins (Tulsa)

The Dolphins are thinner at edge defender after getting rid of Kyle Van Noy and Andre Branch this off-season and, after not replacing them, it’s likely they are planning on using one of their high draft picks on the position. Using their 18th overall pick on an edge defender would make a lot of sense because, though it’s a pressing need, it wouldn’t make sense to reach for an edge defender at 6 and there figure to be several options that would make sense around 18. Collins would fit well as a tweener type player who can play both defensive end and outside linebacker, similar to Van Noy and others who have played that role over the years on the New England Patriots’ defense, which has largely inspired the Dolphins’ defensive scheme. 

19. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

I already mentioned earlier I have the Cardinals trading their 2nd round pick for Stephon Gilmore, but that isn’t the only secondary upgrade the Cardinals need as they lack a consistent safety next to Budda Baker. Trevon Moehrig is the top safety in the draft class and could make a big difference from day one. He’d be a slight reach at 16, even as the top safety in the draft, but if the Cardinals can move down, acquire a third round pick, and draft Moehrig at 19, I think they’ll see that as a success. With JJ Watt added in free agency, Gilmore and Moehrig being added through the draft and draft day trades, and Chandler Jones expected back from injury, this would be a much improved Cardinals defense in 2021, to pair with an emerging offense led by Kyler Murray in his third season in the league.

20. Chicago Bears – CB Greg Newsome (Northwestern)

The Bears had to cut Kyle Fuller for financial reasons and downgraded significantly by replacing him with Desmond Trufant. This hurts a cornerback group that already was a position of concern. The Bears could address this position early in the draft. Newsome is a late rising prospect who seems likely to go in the first round. He could play immediately in three cornerback sets with Trufant and last year’s second round pick Jaylon Johnson.

21. Indianapolis Colts – OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)

Philip Rivers wasn’t the Colts’ only significant retirement this off-season, as long-time left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired as well, leaving a gaping hole on an offensive line that has been one of the best in the league over the past few years due to their continuity. The Colts will likely target Castonzo’s replacement in the draft. Teven Jenkins is an option that is likely to be available when they pick at 21. As long as the Colts have a first round grade on him, I’d be surprised if they passed on him if he was available.

22. Tennessee Titans – CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech)

Edge defender was the Titans’ biggest need coming into the off-season and I didn’t expect them to be able to address it significantly in free agency because of their cap situation. They signed Bud Dupree to a big contract, but only because they gutted their cornerback depth. Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler were both released and Desmond King wasn’t retained, leaving 2020 2nd round pick Kristian Fulton and cheap veteran free agent additions Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Johnson as their top-3 cornerbacks. Now cornerback is their biggest need and one they could easily address in the first round.

23. New York Jets – OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)

Carl Lawson was a big addition in free agency, but the Jets still have their long standing edge defender need, as they haven’t had an edge defender with more than 8 sacks since 2013 and last season they didn’t have one with more than 3.5 sacks. Oweh can step in immediately and play significant snaps as an option opposite Lawson. Adding both Lawson and Ojulari this off-season would go a long way towards improving their pass rush.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Najee Harris (Alabama)

Back-to-back running backs off the board, as the Jets and Steelers are arguably the two neediest teams at the running back position and have picks back-to-back. Steelers starting running back James Conner signed with the Cardinals this off-season and backups Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland averaged 3.32 yards per carry and 3.42 yards per carry respectively in 2020. The Steelers are almost definitely going to use an early pick on the position. The smoke connecting them to Najee Harris seems real.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

The Jaguars added Malcom Brown in a trade with the Saints, but other than that didn’t make any additions at the defensive tackle position this off-season, so they will likely turn to the draft for help. Taven Bryan and Davon Hamilton are an underwhelming starting duo and Brown is their only notable reserve. Barmore could push to be a starter as a rookie and has more long-term upside than any of the Jaguars’ other options.

26. Cleveland Browns – MLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)

The Browns have a decent linebacking corps, but they lack a clear every down linebacker in the group, so if Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah falls to them, I would expect them to pull the trigger. The Browns have bigger needs on defense like defensive end, defensive tackle, and cornerback, but Owusu-Koramoah is too good of a value to pass on and would make this defense a lot better if he can be as advertised.

27. Baltimore Ravens – WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota)

The Ravens desperately tried to add a wide receiver in free agency, but ended up having to settle for Sammy Watkins on a one-year deal. He isn’t a long-term option, so I would expect them to use an early pick on a long-term option at the position. With the Ravens now possessing two first round picks after the Orlando Brown trade, it would be a surprise to not see them use one of those two picks on a wide receiver, especially since they’ll have many options who will fit the range at the end of the first round. Bateman would be a good complement as a bigger bodied receiver (6-2 208) to the smaller, speedier Marquise Brown. 

28. New Orleans Saints – WR Kadarius Toney (Florida)

The Saints were thin at wide receiver even before making Emmanuel Sanders a cap casualty. With Sanders gone and no significant replacement being added, the Saints lack any consistent wide receivers behind Michael Thomas. Whoever their quarterback will be in 2021 in their first year without Drew Brees, they will need to get him more pass catchers to increase his chances of success.

29. Green Bay Packers – WR Terrace Marshall (LSU)

The Jordan Love pick didn’t make any sense at the time and looks even worse in hindsight, as the Packers were legitimately a play or two from making it back to the Super Bowl, while Love couldn’t even win the primary backup quarterback job as a rookie. The Packers easily could have taken a player instead of Love that would have put them over the top last season and Love’s lack of development makes the situation even worse. Wide receiver and middle linebacker remain obvious positions of need as they were last year, after the Packers failed to address them in free agency, so perhaps the Packers will learn from their mistake last year and address these positions in the draft. Taking a wide receiver like Marshall would be a better value than any middle linebacker available at this point.

30. Buffalo Bills – RB Travis Etienne (Clemson)

The Bills don’t run the ball much, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t benefit from an upgrade at the running back position, especially one like Etienne who can be a threat in the passing game as well. The Bills current running backs are not only mediocre runners, but also don’t contribute in the passing game. Etienne would fit well for a team that doesn’t have many needs and can afford to make a “luxury” pick like this.

31. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Jaelan Phillips (Miami)

The Ravens acquired this pick in their trade of Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. The Ravens could use this pick on Brown’s replacement, but it sounds like they will be signing veteran Alejandro Villaneuva to be a short-term replacement, so they won’t be locked into the offensive tackle position and could address a different need. The Ravens had one of the deepest and most talented edge defender groups in the league last year, but few teams could lose both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon and not need to replenish talent at the position. Phillips could have a big role as a rookie.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)

The Buccaneers don’t need much of anything after bringing back every key player from a well-rounded Super Bowl Champion, but they could use better depth at the edge defender position behind Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre Paul, especially with the latter going into his age 32 season and his contract season. Basham could play a rotational role as a rookie before taking over as a starter in 2022.

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Eric Stokes (Georgia)

The Jaguars signed Shaq Griffin in free agency and now have a talented young cornerback duo with Griffin and last year’s first round pick CJ Henderson, but they need a better third cornerback to go with them.

34. New York Jets – RB Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

Aside from Tevin Coleman, the Jets didn’t make a running back addition in free agency this off-season, so they still have one of the thinnest running back groups in the league, with Coleman likely to be the starter if the season started today. Williams has significantly more upside and could be a feature back for this team long-term. With multiple extra picks in the first three rounds of the draft, expect the Jets to be one of the first teams to draft a running back this year.

35. Atlanta Falcons – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

The Falcons lost a pair of starters on the offensive line this off-season in James Carpenter and Alex Mack. Last year’s third round pick Matt Hennessy could take over at either of those positions, but the Falcons still would need one more starter. Meinerz could be a week one starter at left guard.

36. Miami Dolphins – WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)

The Dolphins added Will Fuller in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and even with him on board the Dolphins still need better wide receiver depth behind him and Devante Parker. If the Dolphins can’t get Jamarr Chase at 6, they may opt to address the position

37. Philadelphia Eagles – MLB Jamin Davis (Kentucky)

The Eagles are pretty thin at linebacker and have room for a rookie to play significant snaps. Cox could develop into a much needed every down middle linebacker for this team long-term.

38. Cincinnati Bengals – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

The interior of the Bengals’ line is a much bigger need than offensive tackle now than Riley Reiff has been added. Humphrey could be a starter at any of the three interior positions for the Bengals.

39. Carolina Panthers – OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State)

The Panthers retained stud right tackle Taylor Moton with the franchise tag this off-season, but left tackle Russell Okung wasn’t brought back, leaving the Panthers with 2019 2nd round pick Greg Little, who has struggled mightily in limited action thus far in his career, penciled in as the starting left tackle right now. Little is not a reliable option and could kick inside to guard if the Panthers draft an alternative, something they could easily do early in the draft.

40. Denver Broncos – OLB Jayson Oweh (Penn State)

Von Miller will be back from injury in 2021, but he’s highly paid and now going into his age 32 season, so he might not be around long-term. The Broncos need to add someone in the draft who could be a long-term starter at the position. Oweh would provide valuable rotational depth in the meantime.

41. Detroit Lions – CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky)

The Lions had arguably the worst cornerbacks in the league last season and they haven’t addressed the position this off-season aside from signing Quinton Dunbar to a one-year deal. Second year player Jeff Okudah should be better in his second season, but the Lions need to add at least one more talented young cornerback in the mix.

42. New York Giants – OLB Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma)

Leonard Williams was the only Giants player with more than 4 sacks last season and he plays a lot on the interior, so the Giants still have their long standing edge defender need. They didn’t make any significant additions in free agency, so they’ll have to add at least one player at this position early in the draft.

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Asante Samuel (Florida State)

The 49ers retained most of their free agent cornerbacks and could go into next season with a top cornerback trio of Emmanuel Mosley, Jason Verrett, and K’Waun Williams, but they still need help at the position because their depth is limited and none of those players were retained for longer than two years, with Verrett and Williams only being signed to one-year deals.

44. Dallas Cowboys – DE Gregory Rousseau (Miami)

With Tyrone Crawford retiring and Aldon Smith signing with the Seahawks, Randy Gregory is the Cowboys’ only consistent edge defender behind DeMarcus Lawrence and Gregory has proven to be incredibly unreliable in the past, so they will almost certainly look to improve this position group in the draft.

45. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth (Penn State)

The Jaguars are starting the underwhelming Tyler Eifert at tight end right now because they don’t have another good option, so I would expect them to address this position in the draft. This isn’t a good tight end class outside of Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth is expected to be the first tight end off the board after Pitts and would be a good option in the second round. He could push to start as a rookie.

46. Detroit Lions (TRADE) –  DE Joe Tyron (Washington)

The Lions retained Romeo Okwara in free agency and will get Trey Flowers back healthy in 2021, but the Lions could still use more pass rush help on the edge, so defensive end is yet another position the Lions can address on draft day.

47. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Aaron Robinson (Central Florida)

Casey Hayward struggled in 2020, but his release left the Chargers thin at the cornerback position, even after Michael Davis was retained in free agency. They need another starter to go with Davis and Chris Harris, who is going into his age 32 season and the final year of his contract in 2021.

48. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Rondale Moore (Purdue)

The Raiders used a first and a third round pick on wide receivers last year, but neither did much as a rookie. Nelson Agholor, who led the Raiders’ wide receivers in receiving yards, is no longer with the team and the position group is very unsettled with him gone. I would expect them to add another developmental option through the draft at some point and Moore is a good value at this point.

49. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

The Lions need help basically all over their defense and their linebacking corps is no exception, especially with Jarrad Davis signing with the Jets in free agency this off-season. Bolton would have the opportunity to play a lot right away and could easily develop into an above average every down linebacker for this team.

50. Miami Dolphins – DT Levi Onwuzurike (Washington)

Defensive tackle isn’t the Dolphins’ biggest need, but they could use more talent at the position and Onwuzurike is a good value at this point. He could compete for a role as a rookie and develop into a starter long-term.

51. Washington Football Team – QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency this off-season, but he’s only a short-term option in his age 39 season and was not promised the starting job. They have some internal options in Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen, but neither of them seems like a long-term franchise quarterback, so they’ll look to add a quarterback prospect they like on draft day. They’re not in position to add one of the top quarterback prospects in the first round, Kellen Mond is an option that could make sense after the first.

52. Chicago Bears – OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)

The Bears had a strong offensive line a few years ago, but they haven’t been able to keep that group together and struggled upfront last season, particularly on the right side where right tackle Bobby Massie missed significant time with injury. Massie was let go ahead of his age 32 season in 2021 for salary reasons and the Bears may be targeting his replacement early in the draft.

53. Tennessee Titans – OT Samuel Cosmi (Texas)

After losing Jack Conklin in free agency last off-season, the Titans used a first round pick on Isaiah Wilson and expected him to start long-term at right tackle, but he wound up being one of the bigger busts in recent memory and is no longer with the team. The Titans will almost definitely use another relatively high pick on the position. They’re in even bigger need of a right tackle now with veteran Dennis Kelly, who filled in as the starter last season, no longer on the roster.

54. Indianapolis Colts – WR Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State)

TY Hilton was retained in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and he’ll be in his age 32 season as well. I expect the Colts to add another developmental wide receiver through the draft. Wallace could be a long-term #1 wide receiver.

55. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Kyle Trask (Florida)

2021 seems like it could be Ben Roethlisberger’s final season as his new contract voids after this season and his play left something to be desired in 2020. Now in his age 39 season, the Steelers need a long-term option behind him. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph was a third round pick in 2018, but has yet to develop into that replacement.

56. Seattle Seahawks – CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)

The Seahawks lost both Quinton Dunbar and Shaq Griffin in free agency this off-season and only signed Akhello Witherspoon and Pierre Desir as replacements, so I expect them to address this position early in the draft. Campbell has the size the Seahawks look for at the position.

57. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Chris Rumph (Duke)

The Rams managed to keep Leonard Floyd in free agency, despite their terrible cap situation, but they could still use a long-term upgrade opposite him. Rumph could play a big role as a rookie.

58. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Joseph Ossai (Texas)

The Chiefs have retooled their offensive line this off-season, so now their biggest need by far is defensive end, as no other edge defender besides Frank Clark had more than 3 sacks last season and the Chiefs had a below average 32 sacks as a team, despite playing with frequent leads. The Chiefs don’t have a first round pick anymore, but they could address this need in the second round.

59. Cleveland Browns – CB Robert Rochell (Central Arkansas)

The Browns should have better cornerback play in 2021 with Greedy Williams expected back from injury and Troy Hill signed in free agency to form a talented trio with Denzel Ward. Williams is a significant injury risk though and the Browns really lack depth at the position beyond their top-3. Without many pressing needs, expect the Browns to target cornerbacks early in the draft.

60. New Orleans Saints – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

The Saints somehow were able to keep stud safety Marcus Williams with the franchise tag, despite their terrible cap situation, but keeping him on a long-term deal is another story and, even if they do, they still need a long-term solution at the other safety spot, where the declining Malcolm Jenkins is heading into his age 34 season. Expect them to add a young safety at some point in the draft.

61. Buffalo Bills – DE Payton Turner (Houston)

The Bills used a 2nd round pick on defensive end AJ Epenesa in last year’s draft, but their top-3 defensive ends by snaps played in 2020 were all over the age of 30 and their overall edge rush was disappointing, so they need to add more youth and talent to this group. 

62. Green Bay Packers – OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama)

The Packers had maybe the deepest offensive line in the league last season, but they have lost several linemen in free agency this off-season and also have stud left tackle David Bakhtiari uncertain for the start of next season after tearing his ACL last December. The Packers will look to add depth in the draft and Leatherwood’s versatility will likely be very intriguing to the Packers.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – MLB Baron Browning (Ohio State)

Linebacker has been the achilles heel of the Chiefs’ defense for years. The position group is still unsettled, so if there is someone available that they think can play every down for them, they could easily pull the trigger.

64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Elijah Molden (Washington)

Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are a talented young cornerback duo, but the Buccaneers could use a better third cornerback. Molden is one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the draft and would be a great fit if he was still available at this point in the draft.

65. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)

The Jaguars could use an upgrade over right guard AJ Cann, who is owed a non-guaranteed 5 million in the final year of his contract in 2021. Davis is one of the top guard prospects in the draft and the connection to Jacksonville is obvious, with the man who recruited him to Ohio State, Urban Meyer, now the head coach of the Jaguars.

66. New York Jets – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

The Jets signed Corey Davis in free agency and will use him, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder in three wide receiver sets, but Crowder is in the final year of his contract, so they could add insurance for him in a good wide receiver draft.

67. Houston Texans – C Josh Myers (Ohio State)

The Texans made center Nick Martin a cap casualty, which made sense because he’s an underwhelming starter who was owed 7.5 million, but they have yet to replace him. Myers could compete to start as a rookie and has the versatility to kick to guard as well if needed.

68. Atlanta Falcons – DE Patrick Jones (Pittsburgh)

The Falcons seemingly have a perpetual need for pass rushers, somehow not topping 39 sacks in a season since 2004. Last season, the Falcons managed just 29 sacks, as free agent acquisition Dante Fowler was a massive disappointment and former first round pick bust Takkarist McKinley was cut midway through the season. The Falcons are locked into some of Fowler’s salary next season, so they’ll have to hope he rebounds, but even if he does, the Falcons will still need help opposite him. The Falcons didn’t address the position in free agency, so they’ll have to use an early draft pick or two on the position. 

69. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Jabril Cox (LSU)

The Bengals definitely need more help on offense than defense, but they’ll need to address their linebacking corps at some point. Bolton projects as a three down linebacker long-term and could play a significant role even as a rookie for a Bengals team that didn’t have a true every down linebacker last season.

70. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)

The Eagles made a big splash addition at cornerback last off-season when they added Darius Slay, but the rest of their cornerbacks struggled last season and they’re even thinner now, with players like Jalen Mills and Nickell Robey-Coleman no longer with the team. They’ll have to address this position early in the draft.

71. Atlanta Falcons – RB Michael Carter (North Carolina)

The Todd Gurley experiment didn’t work, as Gurley was ineffective and was forced into a timeshare with Ito Smith and Brian Hill down the stretch. Hill and Smith are no longer with the name, leaving free agent acquisition Mike Davis as their top candidates for carries. They’ll likely add another option in the draft and could be one of the first teams to take a running back, especially if they trade down and accumulate additional picks.

72. Dallas Cowboys – S Jamar Johnson (Indiana)

The Cowboys signed Keanu Neal in free agency, but he’s only on a one-year deal and he’s expected to play some linebacker, so the Cowboys still have a need at the safety position.

73. Carolina Panthers – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

The Panthers drafted Derrick Brown in the first round last year, but they need another defensive tackle to start long-term inside next to him. With Kawaan Short being released this off-season, the Panthers are currently expected to start veteran DaQuan Jones at defensive tackle next to Brown. Aside from Jones only being on a one-year deal and not being a long-term solution, the Panthers also need to add depth at the position.

74. Washington Football Team – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

Washington had a strong offensive line overall last season, but they could still use an upgrade at left tackle. Brown could at least add valuable competition and depth.

75. Dallas Cowboys – TE Tommy Tremble (Notre Dame)

Blake Jarwin came into last season with a lot of promise as the starting tight end, but he tore his ACL early in the season. Dalton Schultz wasn’t bad in his absence, but the Cowboys still don’t have a proven starter at the position, so they could continue adding competition.

76. New York Giants – MLB Chazz Surratt (North Carolina)

Blake Martinez was a good addition for the Giants in free agency last off-season, but they need to add a better starter inside next to him. This is a position they can address on day two of the draft.

77. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Daviyon Nixon (Iowa)

Justin Jones and Linval Joseph are a decent starting duo, but they need to add better depth, especially with Joseph going into his age 33 season. Their 2019 1st round pick Jerry Tillery has completely failed to develop thus far, so they can’t count on him long-term.

78. Minnesota Vikings – OT Walker Little (Stanford)

Ezra Cleveland was probably the Vikings’ best guard last season, but the 2020 2nd round pick could be moving to left tackle with Riley Reiff no longer with the team. That would leave the Vikings with a starting duo of Dakota Dozier and Dru Samia at guard, which would be one of the worst in the league. They could keep Cleveland at guard, but would need to draft an offensive tackle in that scenario. Either way, they need to prioritize adding offensive linemen, likely multiple, through the draft.

79. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota)

The Raiders used the 19th overall pick on cornerback Damon Arnette last year, but the Raiders’ defense was still terrible this season and they need to keep building their cornerback group, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them use another relatively high pick on a cornerback.

80. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Liam Eichenberg (Notre Dame)

The Raiders need to add multiple offensive linemen in the draft after dismantling their offensive line this off-season. Christensen could push to start at right tackle even as a rookie, as the very underwhelming Brandon Parker is currently penciled in as the starter at that position.

81. Miami Dolphins – RB Trey Sermon (Ohio State)

The Dolphins had one of the thinnest running back groups in the league last season and only added a depth player in Malcolm Brown this off-season, so they’ll probably address this position with a relatively early draft pick.

82. Arizona Cardinals – G Jackson Carmen (Clemson)

The Cardinals have already added a #1 cornerback in Stephon Gilmore (via trade) and a top safety prospect in Trevon Moehrig, which, along with the addition of JJ Watt and the return of Chandler Jones, would go a long way towards their defense catching up with their offense and making this a complete football team. However, they still have some needs on offense, including the offensive line. Carmen is a versatile lineman who could provide depth and competition at both guard and tackle.

83. Chicago Bears – QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

Even if the Bears are committed to veteran Andy Dalton as their starter for 2021, he’s not a long-term option and neither is Nick Foles, so the Bears will almost definitely add a young developmental quarterback in the draft.

84. Philadelphia Eagles – S Richie Grant (UCF)

The Eagles signed Anthony Harris in free agency, but he’s only on a one-year deal and fellow starter Rodney McLeod is an underwhelming option who is going into his age 31 season.

85. Tennessee Titans – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

The Titans signed Josh Reynolds in free agency, but he’s an underwhelming replacement for free agent departure Corey Davis and they need to replace slot receiver Adam Humphries as well. 

86. New York Jets – CB Ambry Thomas (Michigan)

Cornerback is also a major need on defense for the Jets. Brian Poole was their only above average player at the position last season and for some reason he hasn’t been brought back as a free agent.

87. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Brady Christensen (BYU)

The Steelers have a pair of unproven starting offensive tackles right now in Zach Banner and Chukwuma Okorafor and little depth behind them, so they’ll need to add depth in the draft. 

88. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Dylan Moses (Alabama)

The Rams don’t have many pressing needs, which is good because they’re thin on early draft picks, but their off ball linebackers are among the worst in the league. Even a third round pick could step in and immediately play a big role for this defense at middle linebacker. 

89. Cleveland Browns –  DT Jay Tufele (USC)

The Browns cut Sheldon Richardson to sign Jadeveon Clowney, so now defensive tackle surpasses defensive end as the Browns’ biggest draft day need. Richardson could still be brought back on a cheaper day, but it would likely only be a one-year deal for his age 31 season, so he’s not a long-term solution. 

90. Minnesota Vikings – CB Paulson Adebo (Stanford)

The Vikings added Patrick Peterson to stabilize a young cornerback group this off-season, but last year’s first round pick Jeff Gladney is in serious legal trouble, so the Vikings are likely to want to add insurance at the position, especially with Peterson only on a one-year deal.

91. Cleveland Browns – DE Rashad Weaver (Pittsburgh)

The Browns added Jadeveon Clowney in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and their depth behind him and Myles Garrett is still very suspect. Defensive end is still one of the Browns’ top needs.

92. Green Bay Packers – MLB Pete Werner (Ohio State)

The Packers addressed their long standing wide receiver need in the first round and now they address their long standing middle linebacker need. Even as a third round pick, Werner could see significant snaps as a rookie.

93. Buffalo Bills – TE Hunter Long (Boston College)

The Bills haven’t been successful at adding competition for Dawson Knox in free agency, so, without many pressing needs, the Bills could add a tight end in the draft if the value makes sense.

94. Baltimore Ravens – OT James Hudson (Cincinnati)

Even if the Ravens sign a veteran solution to replace Orlando Brown at right tackle for 2021, they’ll still likely use a draft pick at some point on a developmental starter who can play long-term.

95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

The Buccaneers brought back Leonard Fournette in free agency, but only on a one-year deal, meaning both he and Ronald Jones will hit free agency next off-season. Kenneth Gainwell is a more natural receiving back than either of them anyway and could have a role in passing situations as a rookie.

96. New England Patriots – WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Western Michigan)

The Patriots had arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league last season, so, even though they added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in free agency, as well as a talented tight end duo that figures to play together a lot with just two wide receivers on the field, the Patriots still need to keep adding depth at the wide receiver position, especially in the wake of Julian Edelman’s retirement.

97. Los Angeles Chargers – G Aaron Banks (Notre Dame)

The Chargers addressed the offensive tackle position in the first round, but they could still use help at guard. Banks could compete at either spot as a rookie.

98. New Orleans Saints – CB Shakur Brown (Michigan State)

Veteran starting cornerback Janoris Jenkins was one of the Saints’ cap casualties this off-season. The Saints will need to add depth through the draft.

99. Dallas Cowboys – OT Stone Forsythe (Florida)

The Cowboys should have better injury luck on the offensive line next season, but they may still want additional insurance at offensive tackle, where the Cowboys were in serious trouble last season when both Tyron Smith and La’El Collins got hurt.

100. Tennessee Titans – OLB Jordan Smith (UAB)

The Titans signed Bud Dupree to a big contract in free agency, but their need at the edge defender position was so big that they still need help now, even after adding Dupree. They’ll likely add a draft pick as well.

101. Detroit Lions – G Trey Smith (Tennessee)

The Lions will probably add an offensive lineman at some point in the draft because they are unsettled everywhere except left tackle and center. Smith could provide competition at both guard spots as a rookie.

102. San Francisco 49ers – WR Amari Rodgers (Clemson)

The 49ers have a good young wide receiver duo in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, but with Kendrick Bourne signing with the Patriots this off-season, they could use a better third receiver. They could add a developmental option in the middle rounds.

103. Los Angeles Rams – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

The Rams lost center Austin Blythe in free agency this off-season and need competition for Brian Allen, who has struggled in starting action in the past. Dickerson could be a first round pick if not for concerns about a twice torn ACL, but he’s a worth a risk at this point in the draft.

104. Baltimore Ravens – WR Josh Palmer (Tennessee)

The Ravens need at the wide receiver position is dire enough that they could double up on the position in the draft.

105. New Orleans Saints – DT Alim McNeill (NC State)

The Saints lost Malcolm Brown and Sheldon Rankins in free agency this off-season and didn’t really replace them, so they will need to do so through the draft.

106. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dayo Odeyingbo (Vanderbilt)

The Jaguars could use additional edge rush depth as they didn’t address this position in free agency.

107. New York Jets – TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

Chris Herndon showed a lot of promise as a rookie in 2018, but hasn’t lived up to that promise in two years since and, now going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jets could look to find a long-term replacement through the draft.

108. Atlanta Falcons – S Andre Cisco (Syracuse)

The Falcons have had Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen as their starting safeties for several years, but both left the team this off-season, as did hybrid cornerback/safety Damontee Kazee, and in their absence the Falcons have a very unsettled safety group.

109. Houston Texans – WR Dyami Brown (North Carolina)

The Texans pretty much need help at every position on the field and this is just their second pick, so they need to just take the best available player. Brown could easily go in the third round and would fill a big need at wide receiver.

110. Cleveland Browns – WR Anthony Schwartz (Auburn)

The Browns don’t need much on offense, but I could see them adding another developmental wide receiver. Rashard Higgins was retained in free agency to be the third receiver, but only on a one-year deal.

111. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Adrian Ealy (Oklahoma)

The Bengals signed Riley Reiff in free agency, but he’s going into his age 33 season and only on a one-year deal, so the Bengals need to find a long-term right tackle option in the draft.

112. Detroit Lions – DT Tyler Shelvin (LSU)

Defensive tackle is another position the Lions need help at, as they are very thin behind presumed starters Michael Brockers and Da’Shawn Hand.

113. Carolina Panthers – MLB Cam McGrone (Michigan)

The Panthers added Denzel Perryman in free agency, but he’s a one dimensional run stuffer, so they could add more depth at the position in the draft.

114. Denver Broncos – S Divine Deablo (Virginia Tech)

The Broncos brought back Kareem Jackson on a one-year deal this off-season, but given the length of his contract and his age, going into his age 33 season, the Broncos should be thinking about the future at the position.

115. Dallas Cowboys – CB Trill Williams (Syracuse)

The Cowboys’ need at cornerback is dire enough that they should double up on the position in the draft.

116. New York Giants – CB Camryn Bynum (California)

The Giants have big financial investments in two cornerbacks in Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry, but they could use a better third cornerback

117. San Francisco 49ers – RB Khalil Herbert (Virginia Tech)

The 49ers are unlikely to use a premium pick on the running back position because of Kyle Shanahan’s ability to find undervalued players at the position, but they need to add depth behind Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. Herbert seems like a good scheme fit.

118. Los Angeles Chargers – RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State)

All of the Chargers’ running backs aside from Austin Ekeler struggled mightily last season, which is a problem because Ekeler is undersized and may not be able to hold up over a full season as a feature back. Having Ekeler back healthy and a better offensive line will help the Chargers be better on the ground in 2021, but they need to add talent at the running back position as well.

119. Minnesota Vikings – G Kendrick Green (Illinois)

The Vikings should come away from this draft with multiple offensive linemen. Having already added an offensive tackle, now the Vikings add a versatile interior offensive lineman.

120. New England Patriots – CB Shaun Wade (Ohio State)

If the Patriots trade away Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots will still be in good shape at cornerback, but they will need to replenish cornerback depth.

121. Las Vegas Raiders – DT Tommy Togiai (Ohio State)

The Raiders have remade their defensive tackle group this off-season, adding Quinton Jefferson and Solomon Thomas in free agency and cutting Maurice Hurst, who was arguably their most effective player at the position for the Raiders last season, though that’s not saying much and it came in limited action due to injury and illness. Jefferson, Thomas, and holdover Johnathan Hankins will likely be their top-3 players at the position this season, but that’s an underwhelming trio and they need better depth. I expect them to use a mid round pick on the position at the very least.

122. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Iowa)

The Lions are thin enough at wide receiver that it would make sense for them to double up on the position in the draft, especially if they trade down and accumulate extra picks.

123. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Elerson Smith (Northern Iowa)

The Eagles, who love having a deep defensive line, used a third round pick on a defensive tackle, but they can’t be happy with their defensive end depth either after losing Vinny Curry, so I expect them to use a mid round pick on a developmental option at the position.

124. Washington Football Team – DE Adetokunbo Ogundeji (Notre Dame)

Chase Young and Montez Sweat are already one of the best edge rush duos in the league, but with Ryan Anderson and Ryan Kerrigan no longer with the team, Washington is now very thin at the position behind their starters. They’ll need to replenish depth in the draft.

125. Minnesota Vikings – DT Bobby Brown (Texas A&M)

The Vikings will be better at defensive tackle next season with Dalvin Tomlinson joining as a free agent and Michael Pierce coming back from an opt out, but they still need to add beter depth at the position.

126. Tennessee Titans – TE Tommy Yeboah (Mississippi)

Jonnu Smith signed with the Patriots as a free agent this off-season and, while Anthony Firkser seems capable of handling a larger role, they’ll need to add depth behind him.

127. Indianapolis Colts – DE Malcolm Koonce (Buffalo)

The Colts could still bring back Justin Houston as a free agent, but they will likely be looking for edge defender help through the draft.

128. Pittsburgh Steelers – C Trey Hill (Georgia)

The Steelers continue rebuilding their offensive line. They don’t have an obvious successor to Maurkice Pouncey, who retired this off-season after 11 seasons with the team.

129. Seattle Seahawks – DT Osawaru Odighizuwa (UCLA)

This is just the Seahawks second pick, so they’ll need to make these picks count. They need to add depth at defensive tackle after releasing Jarran Reed, so that is an obvious position for them to address.

130. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Cade Johnson (South Dakota State)

The Jaguars lost Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, and Keelan Cole this off-season. They signed Marvin Jones, an upgrade on all three, to start opposite DJ Chark and 2020 2nd round pick Laviska Shenault is expected to be the third receiver, but Jones is only on a two-year deal and he’s going into his age 31 season. Last year’s 5th round pick Collin Johnson is a promising young receiver behind their top-3, but it would surprise me to see the Jaguars add another developmental wide receiver at some point.

131. Baltimore Ravens – C Michael Menet (Penn State)

Aside from right tackle, center is the Ravens’ weakest spot on the offensive line, so they could add some long-term competition through the draft.

132. Cleveland Browns – G Deonte Brown (Alabama)

The Browns really don’t need anything else, but you can never have enough offensive line depth and Brown is a good value at this point.

133. New Orleans Saints – WR Marquez Stevenson (Houston)

The Saints are so thin behind Michael Thomas that I expect them to double up on the wide receiver position in the draft.

134. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Derrick Barnes (Purdue)

The Vikings’ defense couldn’t stop anyone down the stretch last season, in large part due to the absence of their talented linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. The Vikings should add insurance at the position.

135. Green Bay Packers – CB Kary Vincent (LSU)

Kevin King was retained as a free agent this off-season, despite his up and down tenure as a starter, but he’s only on a one-year deal, so the Packers will likely be looking for long-term alternatives.

136. Baltimore Ravens – TE Tre McKitty (Georgia)

The tight end position is so important to the Ravens’ offense that they could add a tight end in the draft in the middle rounds. Their offense was at their best when they had three capable tight ends in 2019, before trading Hayden Hurst, and last year it really hurt this offense when #2 tight end Nick Boyle got hurt. McKitty could provide valuable depth and a third capable tight end.

137. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR Shi Smith (South Carolina)

The Buccaneers re-signed Antonio Brown, but he’s going into his age 33 season and only on a one-year deal, so the Buccaneers could still add a young receiver through the draft at some point.

138. Dallas Cowboys – MLB Anthony Hines (Texas A&M)

Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith were one of the best young linebacker duos in the league just a couple years ago, but both have regressed in the past couple years, Vander Esch in large part due to injuries. Smith is also highly paid and might not be kept long-term if he doesn’t bounce back. With long-time veteran Sean Lee no longer with the team, the Cowboys at the very least need depth at the position.

139. New England Patriots – MLB Ernst Smith (South Carolina)

The Patriots’ linebacking corps should be better in 2021 with the return of Dont’a Hightower, but he’s going into his age 31 season, so the Patriots should look for a long-term option behind him.

140. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Rodarius Williams (Oklahoma State)

The Steelers overhauled their cornerback corps this season, releasing Steven Nelson for salary reasons, allowing Mike Hilton to leave in free agency, and retaining cornerback Cameron Sutton as the likely starter opposite Joe Haden, with unproven 2019 3rd round pick Justin Layne penciled in as the third cornerback. They need to continue adding to this group.

141. Los Angeles Rams – CB Davis Daniel (Georgia)

Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, and Darious Williams were arguably the best cornerback duo in the NFL last season, but Hill signed with the Browns this off-season. David Long, a 2019 3rd round pick, is currently penciled in as the third cornerback, but they need to add depth.

142. Green Bay Packers – WR Seth Williams (Auburn)

The Packers are thin enough at the wide receiver position that they could double up on the position in order to try to keep Aaron Rodgers happy.

143. Minnesota Vikings – S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State)

The Vikings lost Anthony Harris in free agency this off-season and only replaced him with Xavier Woods, who was just signed to a one-year deal. They should look for a long-term solution in the draft.

144. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Tutu Atwell (Louisville)

The Chiefs lost Sammy Watkins in free agency and, while Mecole Hardman seems capable of handling a larger role, the Chiefs still need to find a better third receiver behind Hardman and Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of picks after the Orlando Brown trade, but I expect them to use one of their first few picks on another option at the wide receiver position.

NFL Free Agency Predictions – Skill Position Players

If I have time, I will do the other position groups. Players are sorted in terms of expected market value.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick: It’s not a great free agency class at the quarterback position, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has arguably played the best football of his career over the past 3 seasons, completing 64.8% of his passes for 7.87 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions in 27 starts in his age 36-38 seasons, and, even in going into his age 39 season, Fitzpatrick should be able to find a situation where he’ll have a good chance to start in 2021, if he chooses to keep playing, with at least three teams entering free agency with an obvious need at the quarterback position, Denver, Washington, and Chicago. 

As the top quarterback available, Fitzpatrick could have his pick of the three teams and Chicago gives Fitzpatrick both the best chance to win and the best chance to be a full-time starter, with the Bears lacking the cap space to make a splash move for another quarterback and lacking the high draft pick needed to select a top quarterback prospect. The Bears may have pipedreams of acquiring Russell Wilson, but Fitzpatrick is a much more realistic option who could be a legitimate upgrade at the position for a team that has been an upgrade at quarterback away from making it into the post-season in each of the past two seasons. The contract is a two-year deal worth up to 20 million, but incentivized and with no guaranteed money beyond 2021. A deal like that with a contender is probably the best Fitzpatrick can hope for this off-season.

Prediction: Signs with Chicago on an incentivized 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has youth on his side, only going into his age 29 season, and the 2016 3rd round pick isn’t inexperienced either, with 32 career starts. The problem is his experience hasn’t shown him to be more than a high end backup who can start if needed for stretches, but is overmatched as a 16-game starter. There are enough teams with uncertainty at the quarterback position that Brissett is likely to get an opportunity to compete for a starting job, but it’s very questionable whether he’s one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the league and it’s telling that the head coach who drafted him Bill Belichick traded him away from a depth wide receiver and opted to re-sign Cam Newton rather than re-acquire Brissett this off-season. 

Brissett would have a shot to start in either Washington or Denver, but he would likely have to take an incentivized deal with either one. I like Denver is likely to acquire Sam Darnold via trade, as John Elway was very high on Darnold just 3 years ago when he was coming out of USC, leaving Brissett to compete with Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke in Washington. I would expect him to make starts in that situation and it’s not a bad place for a quarterback to be with an elite defense supporting him, but I wouldn’t expect much of a ceiling from him.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on an incentivized 1-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Jameis Winston: With Denver acquiring Sam Darnold, Winston doesn’t have an obvious destination for a starting job this off-season, other than staying where he is in New Orleans and competing with Taysom Hill for the starting job, with Drew Brees (allegedly) retiring. Staying with Sean Payton, a quarterback guru who clearly believes Winston’s turnover issues are fixable, would seem to be in Winston’s best interest.

Prediction: Re-signs with New Orleans on an incentivized 1-year, 10 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mitch Trubisky: Trubisky is in a similar situation as Jameis Winston was in last year, coming off an up and down (but mostly down) stretch with the team that used a high pick to draft him and now finding that team looking for anyone and everyone to replace him. Like Winston, Trubisky’s best option this off-season is likely going to be taking a backup job somewhere with an established offensive coaching staff. 

The 49ers, who are known to be seeking a higher end backup for injury prone starter Jimmy Garoppolo, would certainly count, led by head coach Kyle Shanahan. Backing up Garoppolo would also likely mean that Trubisky would be likely to see action at some point, given Garoppolo’s injury history. Putting up a few games of good tape in a good quarterback situation in San Francisco could lead to him getting another starting job somewhere else down the road.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Alex Smith: Smith is really tough to evaluate given his injury history. Washington understandably moved on from him rather than pay him 19 million for 2021, even though he was their best quarterback last season. He showed enough on tape that purely on ability he deserves to compete for a starting job somewhere, but that was a limited sample size and it’s concerning that he got hurt again just a few games into it. It’s unlikely any team is going to want to go into 2021 with Smith as a presumptive 16-game starter and it’s probably in his best interest long-term to take a backup job anyway and diminish his risk of a serious re-injury. 

I’ve seen Smith linked Urban Meyer, who was Smith’s college coach, and the Jaguars, where he would be a backup and mentor to #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, which would make some sense, but Smith may want to chase a ring more than anything if he’s going to be a backup and arguably the best place for him do that in 2021 is back with another former coach of his, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, where he would give the Chiefs a high end insurance policy in case Pat Mahomes misses time with injury. Smith still has a good relationship with Reid and Mahomes and, having made over 190 million in his career, is unlikely to demand much money as a backup, which is important for the cap strapped Chiefs.

Prediction: Signs with Kansas City on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Andy Dalton: We’re firmly in the high end veteran backup part of the quarterback market, but there are still teams that have a big need for an experienced insurance option. The Giants, who had to turn to Colt McCoy last season when Daniel Jones got hurt, are a team that comes to mind, especially when you take into account that Jones has been inconsistent and injury prone through the first two years of his career. Having a mentor like Dalton around could be helpful for Jones’ long-term development as well.

Prediction: Signs with NY Giants on 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Tyrod Taylor: Here is another experienced veteran backup option. In two of the past three seasons, Taylor has (barely) kept the seat warm for highly drafted rookies in Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert, unfortunately getting hurt and losing his job early in both seasons. He’s unlikely to start week 1 anywhere in 2021 barring injury, but he could be a valuable backup for the Eagles, who have the inexperienced Jalen Hurts under center and little else behind him on the depth chart. Similar to Dalton in New York, Taylor would provide a valuable insurance policy and mentor for the Eagles’ young quarterback. 

Prediction: Signs with Philadelphia on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has been a valuable running back over the past 4 seasons for the Packers, rushing for 5.17 yards per carry and scoring 43 total touchdowns, with 30 of those touchdowns coming just in the past two seasons, but it seems unlikely he’ll be back in Green Bay. The Packers don’t have much financial flexibility and like the running backs they have behind him on the depth chart, while Jones seems likely to break the bank as one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season. He might not reach the 15-16 million annually that running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara received on their new contracts, but he figures to come close. The Dolphins have the perfect combination of cap space, need at the position, and an opportunity to win that should entice Jones to join them, if they’re willing to meet his asking price.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on 3-year, 39 million dollar deal with 27 million guaranteed

Chris Carson: The Jets are my runner ups for Aaron Jones, as they would be able to offer the money and playing time Jones would want, but wouldn’t necessarily give him a chance to win right away. With Jones off the market, they turn to Chris Carson, the #2 running back available. He’s not as good as Jones, but he could end up being a better value and would be a big upgrade for a Jets team that badly needs one at the running back position.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal with 19 million guaranteed

Kenyan Drake: The Cardinals acquired the underutilized Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins at the trade deadline in 2019 and he showed enough in a half season as their feature back to be franchise tagged as a free agent last off-season. His first full season in Arizona in 2020 wasn’t as good as his finish to 2019, but if his market doesn’t develop this off-season, the Cardinals could still welcome him back on a one-year deal. He would still cede some carries to promising backup Chase Edmonds, perhaps more in 2021 than in 2020, but the Cardinals would still give him one of his best chances at playing time.

Prediction: Re-signs with Arizona on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Le’Veon Bell: Bell was seen as one of the top players at his position a few years ago, but he held out of the 2018 season, chased the money with the Jets in 2019, and played so badly that he got cut midway into the 2020 season, while still in the guaranteed portion of his deal. He then went to Kansas City where he hardly played as primarily an insurance policy. The Falcons took a chance on a once elite running back last season with Todd Gurley. That didn’t work out, but still in desperate need at the position and without much cap flexibility, they could take another shot on a player like Bell on a one-year prove it deal. Bell’s addition wouldn’t preclude them from using a draft pick on the position, but he would prevent them from having to rely on a rookie at the position.

Prediction: Signs with Atlanta on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

James Conner: Conner has had some impressive stretches as the Steelers’ lead back over the past few seasons, but he’s also been plagued with injuries and has been very inconsistent as a result. If his market doesn’t develop in a lowered cap off-season, his best move is probably going to be to go back to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal and try to re-establish his value. The Steelers would have a desperate need at the position without Conner and Conner is unlikely to find more money and playing time elsewhere.

Prediction: Re-signs with Steelers on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Jamaal Williams: While Jones is unlikely to return to Green Bay, Williams seems likely to. The Packers have used him more as a 1b to Jones’ 1a over the past two seasons, rather than as a true backup (290 touches to Jones’ 535), showing they clearly value their former 4th round pick. He won’t break the bank for the cap strapped Packers and working in tandem with 2020 2nd round pick AJ Dillon would give Williams his best opportunity to both see significant playing time and play on a winning team with a productive offense. It’s hard to see Williams wanting to leave Green Bay unless Jones returns.

Prediction: Re-signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

James White: The Buccaneers used Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in tandem last season and both fared pretty well on the ground, but neither of them are the kind of pass catching back Tom Brady was used to playing with in New England. With Fournette hitting free agency this off-season, why not take this opportunity to replace him with Brady’s former teammate James White, who is also a free agent this off-season. White won’t break the bank for the Buccaneers and would probably be more valuable to them than anyone. He’d be a great complement as a passing down back to early down back Ronald Jones.

Prediction: Signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mike Davis: Mike Davis impressed as an injury replacement for Christian McCaffrey last season and, while the Panthers would like to have him back as an insurance policy, he can probably find more money and definitely more playing time elsewhere. His former team, the Seattle Seahawks, are reportedly interested and would make a lot of sense because they are a run heavy team whose top-2 running backs are hitting the open market this off-season, most notably lead back Chris Carson, who is probably going to be cost-prohibitive for the Seahawks this off-season. Davis is a cheaper replacement.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Leonard Fournette: With the Buccaneers replacing him with James White, Fournette finds another contender to latch on with. The Bills could use more talent at the running back position, but don’t have the financial flexibility to add a significant contract at the position. Fournette would only have to compete with unproven young running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in Buffalo and would be joining an offense that was one of the league’s best last season.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Marlon Mack: Mack was the Colts’ lead back in 2018 and 2019 and totalled 17 rushing touchdowns and a 4.52 YPC average on 442 carries, but he tore his achilles in week 1 last season and was replaced with rookie Jonathan Taylor, who is now entrenched as the Colts’ lead back. The Colts are highly unlikely to bring him back, but he could still find work as an early down back in a tandem. The Chargers have a great passing down/speed back in Austin Ekeler, but need a better early down complement for him. Mack would give them one without breaking the bank and the Chargers would give Mack his best opportunity to earn playing time and rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Duke Johnson: The Patriots lost James White to the Buccaneers, so they’ll need a replacement passing down back to complement early down backs Damien Harris and Sony Michel. Duke Johnson is a similar player who could catch a lot of passes in New England’s system.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Todd Gurley: After flopping in his opportunity in Atlanta last season, the former MVP candidate Todd Gurley will once again have to take a one-year prove it deal this off-season and likely for less than the 5 million he made in 2021. If they are interested, the 49ers would present an interesting opportunity for Gurley. Gurley thrived in a similar offense with the Rams and Kyle Shanahan is known for getting the most out of his running backs. The 49ers are not going to shell out big bucks for a free agent running back and Gurley wouldn’t be the lead back in San Francisco, but with Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon set to hit free agency, Gurley would add needed depth for the 49ers behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson and he would have his best chance to rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Carlos Hyde: Hyde is the Seahawks’ other free agent running back this off-season and he seems a lot more likely to return as he’s unlikely to be greeted with a robust market. The Seahawks can offer him familiarity, a winning team and playing time, competing with Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny for carries.

Prediction: Re-signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay: Similar to Aaron Jones, Golladay is one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season and could be attracted to the Dolphins for the same reasons, the money they can afford to pay him, the opportunity to play a big role, and the opportunity to play for a winner. Other teams will definitely be interested as he’s arguably the best unrestricted free agent available overall, after the Lions declined to franchise tag him, but the Dolphins can win a bidding war and give a very enticing opportunity to play opposite Devante Parker for an up and coming young team.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on a 4-year, 74 million dollar deal with 44 million guaranteed

JuJu Smith-Schuster: The Colts could also be in on Golladay and have everything the Dolphins have to offer, including significant cap space, but they’ve been reluctant to get in bidding wars for players in recent off-seasons. Instead, they could turn their attention to a slightly cheaper option and make Juju Smith-Schuster their long-term #1 wide receiver. He’s not as proven as Golladay, but he’s about 3 years younger and could be the better player in the long run.

Prediction: Signs with Indianapolis on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 32 million guaranteed

Will Fuller: The Jaguars have a trio of wide receiver free agents in Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, and Keelan Cole and, with the most cap space in the league, they can afford to be aggressive in finding a replacement to play with DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault long-term. Will Fuller is one of the top wide receivers available this off-season and the Jaguars would be taking him from their divisional rival, where he was Deshaun Watson’s #1 wide receiver last season in DeAndre Hopkins’ absence. His addition would give Trevor Lawrence a talented wide receiver trio from day one.

Prediction: Signs with Jacksonville on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 30 million guaranteed

Corey Davis: The Ravens don’t have a ton of needs, but they badly need another wide receiver for Lamar Jackson and, with Jackson still on a cheap rookie deal, they have the cap space to spend at the top of the money and be aggressive while Jackson still has a low cap hit. The big bodied Davis would be a perfect complement for emerging speedster Marquise Brown. The former 5th overall pick finally played like it in his 4th season in the league last season, averaging 2.58 yards per route run (5th among wide receivers), and is dripping with upside on his second contract.

Prediction: Signs with Baltimore on a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal with 31 million guaranteed

Curtis Samuel: Samuel was the Panthers’ #3 receiver last season, but he’ll likely be valued much more than that in free agency, especially since the former 2nd round pick still has the upside to keep getting better, only going into his age 25 season. He’d be a perfect fit in Arizona because of his ability to make plays with the ball in space and line up in multiple spots and the Cardinals have both the need and the cap space to go after someone like Samuel. He won’t get top wide receiver money, but still figures to cost a significant amount, after finishing with 1,051 yards from scrimmage in 2020.

Prediction: Signs with Arizona on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed

Antonio Brown: Brown would be a tough case if not for the fact that he’ll almost definitely be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Brown has #1 wide receiver talent but obvious baggage and is going into his age 33 season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Buccaneers value him, especially since they may be the only team willing to take a chance on Brown.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

TY Hilton: The Patriots have a top of cap space and a massive need at the wide receiver position, but I expect them to exploit this deep wide receiver class rather than splurging for one guy at the top of the market. They’ve never paid top dollar for free agents unless they’re All-Pro caliber and none of the wide receivers available are and they need more than one wide receiver anyway. Belichick and the Patriots have faced off with TY Hilton on several occasions and Belichick may take advantage of the opportunity to get the aging, but still effective former Colts #1 wide receiver on a relatively inexpensive short-term deal.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 12 million guaranteed

Marvin Jones: The Packers don’t have much cap space, but they could restructure some contracts to take advantage of a deep wide receiver class and get a much needed veteran #2 receiver to play opposite Davante Adams. Jones fits the bill, ahead of his age 31 season, and has the added benefit of further weakening division rival Detroit, where Jones has spent the past 5 seasons.

Prediction: Signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed

John Brown: Brown was released by the Bills ahead of a non-guaranteed 8 million dollar salary, but that had more to do with the Bills having limited cap space and having great depth at the wide receiver position. Brown is going into his age 31 season, but has shown he’s still a capable #2 receiver when healthy and is just a season removed from a 72/1060/6 slash line in 2019, so he’ll draw interest this off-season. The Jets have a need at the position and the money to spend more than this, but probably won’t be seen as a prime destination for top free agent destinations. Someone like Brown could be enticed by the money on a short-term deal in a depressed market. He would join Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims as the Jets top wide receivers.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on 1-year, 8 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Nelson Agholor: Agholor was a bit of a laughing stock when he left the Eagles because of his tendency to commit drops and his limited production in his final season in 2019. That allowed the Raiders to get him cheap on a 1-year, 1.1 million dollar deal and the former first round pick responded with the best year of his career, with a 48/896/8 slash line on just 82 targets. Agholor comes with plenty of downside, but he’s topped 700 yards in 3 of 6 seasons in the league and has shown for stretches why he was a first round pick. The Raiders seem likely to value him more than most teams and have indicated a desire to sign him to a long-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Las Vegas on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Sammy Watkins: Watkins is somehow only going into his age 28 season and still has theoretical upside, but the former 4th overall pick hasn’t topped 673 yards in a season since his dominant 2015 season, despite spending the past 3 seasons on the most explosive passing offense in the league. He has still shown flashes, but he hasn’t played a full 16 game season since 2014, he’s missed 23 games in the past 5 seasons, and most importantly, his injuries seem to have sapped his athleticism. He’s still a worthwhile flier on a one-year deal because he can at least be a #2 wide receiver if healthy, he has the upside to be more than that, and he’s unlikely to even command the 9 million he made last season because of his continuing injury issues. The wide receiver needy Patriots could take a shot as they need to add multiple options to one of the thinnest wide receiver groups in the league.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

AJ Green: The Titans don’t have much financial flexibility this off-season, but they’ll need to find help at the wide receiver position behind AJ Brown, with Adam Humphries being a cap casualty and Corey Davis likely to sign elsewhere this off-season. AJ Green could be a fit as a low cost flyer. Green missed 23 of 32 games from 2018-2019 and was not the same in his return in his age 32 season in 2020, posting a 47/523/2 slash line, but he’s not totally over the hill and may have just not been motivated last season in Cincinnati, where he had no desire to be without a long-term deal. He may have a tough time finding a long-term deal this off-season, but the Titans would give him an opportunity for significant playing time on a contender and he would fit in their limited budget if his market predictably doesn’t develop.

Prediction: Signs with Tennessee on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Rashard Higgins: Higgins showed a good rapport with Baker Mayfield down the stretch in 2018, with a 18/255/2 slash line in his final 5 games, but was inexplicably not utilized by inept head coach Freddie Kitchens in 2019, before a more capable coaching staff decided to utilize him again in 2020, even starting him as the #2 wide receiver in the absence of the injured Odell Beckham, a 11-game stretch (including playoffs) in which Higgins had a 39/662/2 slash line. He says he’d like to be back in Cleveland, but the Browns already have big money committed to two wide receivers and a tight end and are unlikely to outbid teams for a player who would be their #3 wide receiver with Beckham back next season. A team like Washington, who needs a #2 wide receiver and has cap space to spend, will be able to offer more playing time and money.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed

Emmanuel Sanders: The Panthers have DJ Moore and Robby Anderson and paid up for tight end Jonnu Smith, so they’re unlikely to spend much on a #3 receiver to replace Curtis Samuel. Emmanuel Sanders, released by the Saints to save 6.5 million, could have a tough time finding significant guarantees this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season. The Panthers could take a shot on someone like him.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds has never been much more than a #3/#4 receiver with the Rams, but the Rams have always had a deep receiving corps and Reynolds is likely to be valued as more on the open market. The Bengals have ties to him through head coach Zac Taylor, who also comes from the Rams, and they have a need at the wide receiver position, with AJ Green likely leaving this off-season. The Bengals have been hesitant to spend money in free agency historically, but they showed a willingness to spend more last off-season and they have among the most cap space in the league again this off-season. Reynolds would add another young (age 26) wide receiver to a trio of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals could easily value him more than anyone else.

Prediction: Signs with Cincinnati on a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne is probably best as a #3 wide receiver, but he showed himself to be a little more than that last season with the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both intermittently dealing with injuries, leading to Bourne getting 74 targets, which he turned into a 49/667/2 slash line. He says he wants to return to the 49ers, but is likely to get more playing time and money elsewhere. The Lions don’t have more financial flexibility, but still need wide receiver help even after signing Tyrell Williams, as they’re set to lose their top-3 wide receivers this off-season. They can sign someone like Bourne to a multi-year deal and keep his first year cap hit low.

Prediction: Signs with Detroit on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal with 9 million guaranteed

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: The Patriots didn’t make a huge splash in the wide receiver market despite having a ton of cap space, but they could make one at the tight end position. Given how valuable the tight end position has been to this offense historically, I think it’s more likely the Patriots spent 12-13 million annually at the top of the tight end market than 18-20 million annually at the top of the wide receiver market, especially given how much deeper the wide receiver market is. Henry might not quite be an elite tight end, but he’s one of the few tight ends in the league who is an above average pass catcher and an above average run blocker, which is badly needed in this offense.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed

Jonnu Smith: The Panthers are another team with a desperate need at the tight end position and, while they don’t have the cap space or the coaching staff that New England has, they do have a good enough situation to appeal to Jonnu Smith, the 2nd best tight end available. A quick look at his stats don’t show him to be much, but the former 3rd round pick has always split time on a run heavy team. His efficiency stats, particularly over the past two seasons (1.64 yards per route run), his athleticism, and his youth (26 in August) all suggest he is someone whose production could explode in the right situation. He won’t be cheap, but he’s a much needed piece for a Panthers team that can afford to spend at the top of the market.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed 

Gerald Everett: Everett is another player whose production looks a lot better when you consider he split time with Tyler Higbee throughout his tenure with the Rams. It’s likely he’ll be valued as a starter this off-season, particularly by a team that had a high grade on the former 44th overall pick when he came out in 2017. I don’t know how the Chargers’ decision makers will view Everett, but they have a big need for a pass catcher at the position with Hunter Henry gone and they have the financial flexibility to spend a decent amount to replace him. Everett’s production could explode with an increased target share in a Justin Herbert led offense.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal with 10 million guaranteed

Rob Gronkowski: There is no doubt that Rob Gronkowski will be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, even if he could command more money elsewhere. The Buccaneers don’t have a ton of financial flexibility, but will find a way to fit Gronk in on a team friendly short-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jared Cook: This is a shallow tight end class and there are a bunch of teams in need of upgrades at the position. One team that could be more convincing than most are the Bills, who are one of the top Super Bowl contenders heading into next season and are reportedly looking for an upgrade at the position. Cook isn’t an every down player anymore, but the Bills have Dawson Knox as well and wouldn’t have to pay much for Cook, important given their cap situation. For Cook, Buffalo would give the 34-year-old a chance at a late career Super Bowl run.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Kyle Rudolph: Released by the Vikings last month ahead of a 8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, Rudolph has been linked to the Patriots, but they shoot higher here, leaving Rudolph to go elsewhere. He won’t command much money in his age 32 season with declining production, but the Seahawks can offer him a good mix of playing time and playoff contention and would like to find a replacement for the retired Greg Olsen without breaking the bank.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LV Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in Super Bowl LV

Tom Brady will be appearing in his 10th ever Super Bowl in Super Bowl 55, an incredible number that is double the next highest total and that is more than all of Brady’s Hall-of-Fame contemporaries combined. This one will be unique from all the others because he’ll be doing it with a new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in his first season with the team after two record breaking decades in New England. Brady is being given most of the credit, understandable if you just pay attention to team’s records, as the Buccaneers improved from 7 wins to 11 wins and a Super Bowl appearance, while New England fell from 12 wins to out of the playoffs with 7 wins, after Brady had made the post-season in 16 straight healthy seasons in New England. 

However, that is far from the whole story and ignores the reasons why Brady headed south in the first place. The Patriots won 12 games last year, but Brady and the offense weren’t the primary reason they won those games, as the Patriots had a dominant defense, but an offensive supporting cast that left a lot to be desired, especially in the receiving corps and especially down the stretch as injuries mounted. The Patriots’ defense led the league in first down rate allowed by a mile, but their offense ranked just 21st in first down rate, their lowest finish since before Brady arrived.

The Patriots didn’t make any major upgrades to their receiving corps last off-season, so it’s likely the Patriots’ 2020 offense would have resembled their 2019 offense if they had kept Brady, rather than the 2020 Buccaneers’ offense, which has a much better receiving corps. That still would have been enough for the Patriots to make the post-season had their defense continued playing at a high level like in 2019, but the Patriots’ defense is where they had by far their biggest dropoff from 2019 to 2020, finishing the 2020 season ranked 23rd in first down rate allowed. 

Given how much their defense fell off, it’s very likely the Patriots would not have made the playoffs even if they had kept Brady and, by some metrics, the Patriots were better offensively in 2020 with Cam Newton leading a run based attack than they were in 2019 when they relied primarily on an ineffective aerial attack with Brady throwing to arguably the worst receiving corps in the league. The 2019 Patriots ran a league leading 1,126 plays because their defense kept getting them the ball back so often, 115 more plays than they ran in 2020, but the 2019 Patriots only managed 6 more first downs than the 2020 Patriots and they averaged fewer yards per play as well, 5.3 vs. 5.2. 

The Patriots have gotten a lot of criticism for not bringing back Brady, but that would have required at least matching a fully guaranteed 2-year, 50 million dollar contract for a 43-44 year old quarterback who might not have even gotten them back to the post-season in the first year of the deal. For a team that needs to rebuild and reload, that kind of contract could have set them back a year or two. The contract obviously has worked out for the Buccaneers, but it’s kind of comparing apples to oranges, because the Buccaneers are built to win now much more than the Patriots and were right to be aggressive to try to capitalize on that.

Brady, of course, likely recognized the two teams were heading into opposite directions, which is why he made the decision he did. For all the talk about how Tom Brady is back in the Super Bowl because of what he did as a player this season, what Brady did this off-season as a scout probably has more to do with him being back here than anything. The Buccaneers were not widely discussed as a potential destination for Brady last off-season, but I put them at the top of my list for Brady last February and, while I wasn’t expecting Brady to actually leave New England, it was easy for me to see why he picked the Buccaneers when he picked them. 

The Buccaneers won just 7 games in 2019, but they finished 9th in first down rate differential, suggesting they were better than their record. They also had a massive need at quarterback after years of subpar play from Jameis Winston, they were well coached, going into the second season of the Bruce Arians regime, and they got a lot better down the stretch in 2019, particularly on defense, leading to the Buccaneers winning 6 of their last 9 games, with the exceptions being a loss to the division leading Saints and two losses by less than a score in games in which Winston threw at least one pick six. Tampa Bay’s loaded receiving corps was the main draw, but this was a talented roster overall, beyond their pass catchers and, after Brady brought his friends Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski along for the ride, Tampa Bay suddenly became legitimate contenders.

Brady, for his part, played at an above average level and was obviously a massive upgrade over the backup caliber Jameis Winston, but Brady is not the same player he was in his prime or even a few years ago when he could single handedly elevate a team with an underwhelming supporting cast to the league’s highest stage, likely part of the reason why Brady looked for a better football situation to spend the twilight of his career last off-season. Focusing too much on Brady overlooks the talented players and coaches (including defensive coordinator Todd Bowles) that the Buccaneers have throughout their roster and throughout their staff, which is a huge part of the reason why the Buccaneers are where they are.

For Brady, being in the Super Bowl is nothing new, but what is relatively new is that he won’t be favored, with the Buccaneers listed as 3.5 point underdogs. Brady led the historic upset as massive underdogs in his first Super Bowl appearance back in Super Bowl 36, but he’s been favored in each of the past 8, covering in just 3 of them. Brady and the Buccaneers being underdogs has everything to do with the team on the other side, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are defending Super Bowl Champions and have been presumptive Super Bowl favorites all season, having lost just one meaningful game. 

For Mahomes, this is his second straight Super Bowl appearance and, in 3 seasons as the starter, he’s lost just once in the post-season, in 8 appearances. His one loss was to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship, one of four matchups between these two quarterbacks in just the 3 seasons that Mahomes has been the starter. The 4th matchup was earlier this season when the Chiefs won by a field goal in Tampa Bay in a matchup that previewed the Super Bowl, both in matchup and in location, with the Buccaneers being fortunate enough to be the first team ever to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. 

The common narrative is that the Chiefs dominated that game and the Buccaneers came back in garbage time, but the Buccaneers’ score to cut it to a field goal came with over four minutes left on the clock and two timeouts left for Tampa Bay, so those were hardly meaningless possessions. A better way to think of that game is that both teams dominated a single quarter (the Chiefs in the 1st jumping out to a 17-0 lead and the Buccaneers in the 4th cutting it from 27-10 to 27-24), but that the Chiefs played slightly better overall. How much better overall may be very slight though, as the Chiefs only won the first down rate battle by just 0.66% and actually had slightly fewer yards per play (7.6 vs. 7.5). 

Winning close games was a big part of the story of the Chiefs’ season this year, as they snuck out 8 of their 14 wins by 6 points or fewer, including several against teams much worse than the Buccaneers. Overall, the Buccaneers actually had the edge in point differential (+137 vs. +111), DVOA (33.7% vs. 25.2%), and schedule adjusted first down rate differential (4.25% vs. 3.36%) on the season and, even though they won 3 fewer games, they had significantly more double digit wins (8 vs. 5). Wins by larger totals tend to be predictive of future winning at a much higher rate than close victories. 

Some ignore that most of the Chiefs wins have been close because the Chiefs have Mahomes and they assume that quarterbacks of his caliber can consistently win close games. Even ignoring the obvious fact that even the most elite quarterbacks couldn’t consistently win 88.9% of their one score games like Mahomes did this season, there isn’t much evidence of elite quarterbacks even consistently winning close games at a significantly higher than average rate. Entering this season, Mahomes was just 9-8 in one score games in his career, as dominant as he was in his first two seasons in the league. In fact, the only quarterback who has seemed to be able to consistently win close games is the quarterback on the other sideline, who is a remarkable 94-44 in his career in one score games. 

In addition to his dominance in one score games, Brady has somehow been even more dominant in tough games like this. Not only is Brady 33-11 in the post-season, but Brady almost always plays his best in these big games against tough opponents, particularly when his team is doubted and not expected to win. Overall in his career, Brady is 56-26 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than 2.5 and he’s 44-11 ATS against teams with a better record than his, including an incredible 42-13 straight up record in those games. 

As an underdog, Brady is 28-6 ATS in games against teams with a better record than his, pulling the straight up upset in 21 of 30 games. Most of that was with Bill Belichick and the Patriots, but the Buccaneers went 4-1 ATS as underdogs and against teams with a better record than theirs this season, including their 3-point loss as 3.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs earlier this season and their wins over the Saints and Packers in their past two games. 

It will take a lot more than just Tom Brady to win this game, but the Buccaneers have it, with arguably the most well-rounded roster in the league and a better overall team than the Chiefs, who may have the passing game stars, but have questions on defense and on the offensive line, particularly with the Chiefs now being without both of their starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, who are one of the best duos in the league when healthy. This offensive line was already not the same since losing Schwartz in week 8, a 11-game stretch in which they’ve won by more than 6 points just twice and Fisher going down in the Chiefs’ last game in the AFC Championship makes things much worse. 

The Chiefs have done a good job of rebuilding their offensive line on the fly this season, but they figure to be overmatched against a tough Tampa Bay front. I like the Buccaneers to pull the upset straight up and, even if they can’t, they should be able to keep it close, especially in what will be something of a home game for the Buccaneers. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer and the Chiefs haven’t blown out most of their opponents this season. The Buccaneers seem like a relatively safe bet against the spread and a great value on the money line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Kansas City Chiefs 27 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: High