Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2019 Week 17 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (3-12) at Dallas Cowboys (7-8)

The Cowboys are just 7-8 and their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, needing a win and a Philadelphia loss to win the historically bad NFC East. Despite that, they rank 7th in the NFL with a +82 point differential. Their average margin of victory is 18.57 points per game, but they’ve had a very tough time in close games, going 1-6 in games decided by one score or less and 0-4 in games decided by 4 points or fewer. This is a year after going 9-3 in one score games with almost the same roster and coaching staff. A team’s record in close games tends to be unpredictable on a year-to-year basis and tends to even out in the long run, but the Cowboys have done a complete 180 this season.

Fortunately, the Cowboys end the season with a very easy home game against the Redskins and could easily get their 6th win by 18 points or more this season. Even if they don’t quite get to 18, this spread is only 11 and they should be able to win with ease and cover this spread. The Redskins were a pretty bad team to begin with, but they come into this game with a skeleton crew roster due to injuries. Their defense has already been without their top pass rusher Ryan Kerrigan and cornerback Quinton Dunbar for several weeks, but they will also be without talented safety Landon Collins as well as fellow defensive backs Fabian Moreau, Josh Norman, and Montae Nicholson this week. Over the past 4 weeks, the Redskins have allowed a 40.00% first down rate without Dunbar and Kerrigan and their injury situation is even worse this week.

The only reason the Redskins haven’t been getting blown out in recent weeks is rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins developing into a capable starting quarterback, leading this offense to a 40.08% first down rate, but Haskins is also out this week, forcing the Redskins to go back to backup caliber quarterback Case Keenum. Making matters even tougher for Keenum, he’ll be without top wide receiver Terry McLaurin and top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff. Missing everyone they are missing, the Redskins rank dead last in my roster rankings this week and are very likely to be blown out by the Cowboys like many others have been this season.

I wish the Cowboys were in a better injury situation though, as quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at less than 100% through a shoulder injury, while cornerback Byron Jones, left tackle Tyron Smith, and linebacker Sean Lee are considered truly questionable after not practicing on Friday. Even with the Cowboys’ injury uncertainty, I have this line calculated at Dallas -15.5, so the Cowboys are still worth a small bet, but I was considering a much larger bet earlier in the week before the injury uncertainty. 

Dallas Cowboys 26 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Dallas -11

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Both of these teams are 3-11 and have had pretty horrible seasons, but the Giants have been the noticeably better of these two teams, holding a significant edge in point differential -99 to -132, despite the Redskins holding a significant edge in turnover margin +2 to -15. Turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Redskins aren’t necessarily going to win the turnover battle this week just because they have the advantage in that metric on the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants have the edge at -2.02% to -6.07%. Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Giants in the past week, as the Redskins were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line is now even. I have the Giants calculated as 1.5 points, so they should be the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

New York Giants 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants PK

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 15 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) at Washington Redskins (3-10)

This was one of the toughest games of the week to decide. The Eagles are favored by 6 points on the road in Washington and my calculated line for this game falls slightly to either side of 6 depending on whether or not Redskins top cornerback Quinton Dunbar is able to play after not practicing all week due to injury. It seems like he won’t play, so I’m taking the Eagles, but I would flip to the Redskins if Dunbar is able to go. Either way, this would be a no confidence pick. I may have an update tomorrow morning.

Final Update: Dunbar isn’t playing, so I’m leaving this as is. Much has been made of how thin the Eagles are at wide receiver, but the Redskins have an awful group of cornerbacks without Dunbar.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 14 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)

The Packers have been close to an auto-bet at home with Aaron Rodgers under center, going 42-21 ATS since 2011 in games that Rodgers starts and finishes. Unfortunately, we’re not getting good line value with them at home this week. The Packers are 9-3, but 5 of their wins were decided by a touchdown or less, as opposed to just 1 of their losses, and they’ve benefitted from a +11 turnover margin, which tends to be very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis.

In terms of first down rate differential, the Packers rank just 16th at +0.52% and have been even worse in recent weeks, ranking 22nd since week 7 at -0.76%. The Redskins are one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 31st in first down rate differential at -7.07%, but I still only have this line calculated at Green Bay -11.5. I’m still taking Green Bay -13 for pick ‘em purposes because of the Packers’ incredible homefield advantage, but I’m not confident in this one at all. 

Green Bay Packers 27 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -13

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (2-9) at Carolina Panthers (5-6)

This was one of the toughest games of the week to decide. On one hand, the Panthers have struggled in recent weeks with Kyle Allen falling back to earth after surprisingly playing well in his first few starts of the season and, as a result, they probably shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone, even the Redskins. Dating back to week 7, the Panthers have a first down rate differential of -7.81%, 29th in the NFL over that time period. I still have them calculated as 7.5-point home favorites this week against one of the worst few teams in the league, but we’re getting line value with the visitors.

On the other hand, the Redskins are in a tough spot as big underdogs before being big underdogs again. It’s tough for an inferior team to keep it close against a superior team with another tough game on deck, as teams are 29-59 ATS since 2002 as underdogs of 10 or more before being underdogs of 10 or more again. The Redskins are currently 14.5-point underdogs on the early line for next week’s matchup in Green Bay with the Packers and, in a lost season, might not bring their best effort for this game with a tougher game on deck. I’m taking the Redskins for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and a push is a strong possibility.

Carolina Panthers 20 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (3-6-1) at Washington Redskins (1-9)

The Lions are arguably the most injury affected team in the league right now. The most visible absence is quarterback Matt Stafford, who will miss his third straight game with a back injury, but the Lions are also missing several other key contributors. Defensive end Trey Flowers, center Frank Ragnow, running back Kerryon Johnson, defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, and safety Tracy Walker are all out for this game, while cornerback Rashaan Melvin is questionable after picking up a late week injury. The Lions only rank 25th in first down rate differential at -3.11% and, factoring in all their absences, they rank 30th in my roster rankings.

The Redskins rank 31st in first down rate differential at -8.21%, but they actually rank one spot better than the Lions in my roster rankings. With these two teams about even, I have this line calculated at Washington -3, so I genuinely don’t understand why the Lions are favored in this game by 3.5. Even if Stafford was healthy, I’d have the Lions favored by just 5 points on the road in this matchup, as their largest margin of victory this season was a 5-point home win over the Giants. The Lions are also in a tough spot with another game in 4 days on deck, a spot with a 44% cover rate all-time, so the Redskins are my top pick this week.

Washington Redskins 17 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Jets at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick

New York Jets (2-7) at Washington Redskins (1-8)

These two teams are very similar. Both have had awful seasons, as the Jets rank 31st in first down rate differential at -7.54% and the Redskins rank 30th at -7.07%, but both have been slightly better when a key player has been in the lineup. The Jets have a 31.14% first down rate and a -4.36% first down rate differential in the 6 games quarterback Sam Darnold has started, while the Redskins have a 31.81% first down rate and a -4.18% first down rate differential in the 7 games guard Brandon Scherff has started. Darnold has struggled in his second season in the league, but he’s been a massive upgrade over backup quarterback Luke Falk, while Scherff is one of the top interior offensive linemen in the league and his impact has been very noticeable for a team that wants to run the football up the middle.

In my roster rankings, I have these two teams with identical scores, tied for 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of the Bengals and Dolphins. This line, favoring the hometown Redskins by 2 points, suggests the Jets are slightly better, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Redskins, but not nearly enough to bet them confidently. The Redskins should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, if only because the single most likely outcome in any football game is the home team winning by a field goal. 

Washington Redskins 19 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Washington -2

Confidence: None