2012 NFL Power Rankings

Chicago Bears: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

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Record: 3-1

Last week: 6 (+0)

This team really reminds me of the 2010 version. In 2010, they won 11 games and got a first round bye, but you never really felt like you could trust them to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. This year is similar. They stand at 3-1 with that one loss coming against the Packers on a Thursday Night game that they weren’t prepared for. However, they have an even yards per play differential of +0.0 and you know their offensive line or quarterback could combust at any time. They’ll win a bunch of games, but there are 5 teams in the NFL that I think have a better chance to win the Super Bowl than them, at least.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 18 of 24 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 121.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 27 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 6, 1 touchdown)

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 7 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 28 pass plays

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Lance Briggs: Allowed 6 catches for 50 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass rush snaps

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 interceptions, 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Robbie Gould: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 73.7 yards per kickoff, 18.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (21, 43)

Duds

FS Chris Conte: Allowed 5 catches for 67 yards on 5 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 5 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles

DT Stephen Paea: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Julius Peppers: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 8 (+1)

Record: 3-1

Through 4 games, the 49ers lead the league in yards per play differential. I still don’t trust Alex Smith to lead this team deep into the playoffs, but this was one of my preseason disappointing teams and I’ve definitely come around on them. They haven’t had to dominate the turnover battle like they did last year (only +4 through 4 games). The one issue is that this team has strangely had no injuries since the start of last year on either side of the ball. Can they still play at this level if they lose a couple starters to injury? I think the jury is still out on this team.

Studs

LG Mike Iupati: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 5 attempts

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 8 touchdowns

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

MLB NaVorro Bowman: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

MLB Patrick Willis: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Justin Smith: 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 6 attempts on 24 pass play, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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San Diego Chargers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 3-1

The Chargers finish September with a 3-1 record for the 2nd year in a row, something they hadn’t done in the Norv Turner era prior to last year. However, much like last year, they beat up on crappy teams in September and got blown out against the only good team they faced. They started last year 4-1 before losing 6 straight and eventually barely making it to .500. They also rank just 20th in yards per play differential. There are certainly plenty of concerns with this team, but for now, they’re the favorite in the AFC West, in my opinion. Those two those games against the Broncos are going to be key though because I think this is the tightest division race in the NFL.

Studs

C Nick Hardwick: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 14 attempts

RG Louis Vasquez: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FS Eric Weedle: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

WR Robert Meachem: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 6 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

LOLB Jarret Johnson: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 missed tackles

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Denver Broncos: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record 2-2

See, Peyton Manning wasn’t done. He just needed to face the Raiders. After 3 less than stellar performances in his first 3 games against tough defenses (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston), Manning exploded for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30 of 38 passing against the Raiders’ lowly defense. He’s not the player he once was, but he’s still pretty good. Next up for the Broncos is another tough test as they head to New England, but New England’s defense isn’t great so Manning should be able to post good numbers in a shoot out.

Studs

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 112 yards (54 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 carries, 3 broken tackles, caught 6 passes for 23 yards on 6 attempts

QB Peyton Manning: 30 of 38 for 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 batted passes, 1 dropped pass, 99.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 38 drop backs (0 sacks, 4 of 7, 1 drop)

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 4 attempts

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Elvis Dumervil: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

ROLB Von Miller: 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

K Matt Prater: 8 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks, 74.8 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (21, 43, 53)

Duds

CB Tracy Porter: Allowed 4 catches for 76 yards on 7 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Derek Wolfe: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 10 (+0)

Record: 2-2

Believe it or not, the Cowboys actually rank tied for 2nd in the league in yards per play differential with Baltimore and Philadelphia, behind only San Francisco. Turnovers are a huge issue for them as they rank dead last in the NFL at -7 and are coming off a game in which they were -4 in turnovers. However, turnovers are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 4 actually WIN it by an average of 0.4 in their next game. The Panthers were in a similar situation last week, facing a team that dominated the turnover battle up to that point, Atlanta, and they almost beat them. The Cowboys have a bye to get things straightened out and to get guys like Jay Ratliff, Anthony Spencer, and Phil Costa back from injury. I think this is an underrated team.

Studs

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 1 carry

TE Jason Witten: Caught 13 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Sean Lee: 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 7 stops, allowed 1 catch for -3 yards on 1 attempt

NT Josh Price-Brent: 1 sack and 17 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles and 4 stops

ROLB DeMarcus Ware: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles and 3 stops

Duds

RT Doug Free: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 2 carries

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 8 passes for 105 yards on 13 attempts on 56 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 drops

WR Kevin Ogletree: Caught 3 passes for 24 yards on 39 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to, 1 drop

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles

RE Jason Hatcher: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 3-1

The Vikings are still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. They are the only candidate even in the top-22 in yards per play differential, ranking 9th. Their defense and offensive line are both much improved. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin are both having breakout years and Adrian Peterson is making everyone who said the Vikings shouldn’t rush him back because they wouldn’t be could anyway look stupid (me). I guess you never know in the NFL, so you have to get it your all until you’re eliminated.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 102 yards (79 after contact) on 21 carries, 5 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 20 yards on 4 attempts

LG Charlie Johnson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

C Brandon Fusco: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 8 attempts

CB Chris Cook: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

SS Harrison Smith: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles

RE Jared Allen: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 58 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DE Everson Griffen: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops

DT Letroy Guion: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 4 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, rushed for 12 yards on 3 carries, 1 kickoff return for 105 yards and a touchdown

CB Marcus Sherels: 1 punt return for 77 yards and a touchdown

Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph: Caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

LOLB Chad Greenway: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 8 catches for 85 yards on 9 attempts

LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hurry on 57 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Green Bay Packers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (+0)

Record: 2-2

I’ve still got the Packers here after their close home win over the Saints. Every year, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs and after all 4 of the candidates won last week, the Packers are still the favorite. It’s not that they’re not talented enough to make the playoffs. The NFC is just loaded and that bogus loss on the touchception could be a difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 31 of 41 for 319 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 4 drops, 107.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 42 drop backs (0 sacks, 1 scramble, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 drop)

LG TJ Lang: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

C Jeff Saturday: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DJ Smith: Allowed 3 catches for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

Duds

CB Sam Shields: Allowed 6 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE BJ Raji: Did not record a pressure on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 penalties

LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Jerel Worthy: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

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New York Giants: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 14 (+0)

Record: 2-2

This is the league’s 2nd worst defense in terms of yards per play allowed, thanks to a pass defense that ranks tied for last allowing 9.0 YPA. Their secondary simply cannot seem to beat the injury bug, much like last year, and it’s getting worse as safety Kenny Phillips is expected to be out for a few weeks after leaving last week’s loss to the Eagles. He was one of the reliable players in this secondary last year, along with Corey Webster, an aging cornerback who is really struggled this year, compared to his normal self. In a loaded NFC, that could be enough to keep the Giants out of the playoffs. The 9 wins they had last year won’t cut it this year and it feels like we’re headed for somewhere around there.

Studs

LT William Beatty: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C David Baas: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 9 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 4.2 YAC per catch

WR Domenik Hixon: Caught 6 passes for 114 yards on 11 attempts on 46 pass plays, 4.6 YAC per catch

FS Stevie Brown: Allowed 2 catches for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes

Duds

LG Kevin Boothe: 1 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 49 pass snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 7 attempts

TE Martellus Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 2 yards on 3 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Corey Webster: Allowed 5 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 4-0

I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that. Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. They’re a very similar team to the Seahawks and could easily lose in St. Louis on a short week this week. I’ve started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward.

Studs

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 6 passes for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch

SS Adrian Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes

MLB Paris Lenon: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 20 blitzes, was not thrown on

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

P Dave Zastudil: 9 punts for 435 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 9 yards, 47.3 net yards per punt

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty

RB Ryan Williams: Rushed for 26 yards (26 after contact) on 13 carries, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 0 yards on 2 targets, 1 drop

WR Early Doucet: Caught 4 passes for 31 yards on 7 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB William Gay: Allowed 5 catches for 129 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Nick Eason: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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