New Orleans Saints 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Saints were in arguably the worst position of any team. Years of aggressive cap maneuvering paired with years of poor drafting led to the Saints missing the playoffs in four straight seasons and, going into last off-season, they had a roster that was increasingly aging and a cap situation that was increasingly becoming inflexible. Now a year later, the Saints’ playoff drought still continues, but, after a good 2025 draft, the Saints have much more promising young talent than they used to and hope for the future.

The most important player in that draft class is quarterback Tyler Shough, selected in the second round. Shough didn’t take over as the starter until week 9, but in 9 starts he completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns on 45 carries (4.13 YPC). Most importantly, Shough led the Saints to a 5-4 record in his starts, after the Saints started 1-7. He was an old rookie and is already heading into his age 27 season, so he doesn’t have the same upside as most quarterbacks who have an impressive rookie season, but he seems likely to at least continue his level of play from the second half of last season into this season. 

Shough will continue being backed up by Spencer Rattler, who actually wasn’t that bad in his 8 starts last season, completing 67.7% of his passes for an average of 6.17 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, mostly struggling to win games because of issues with his supporting cast. A 5th round pick in 2024, Rattler struggled mightily in 6 starts as a rookie (70.4 passer rating), but he entered the league very raw and was clearly improved in 2025. Actually younger than Shough, going into his age 26 season, Rattler probably isn’t a starting caliber quarterback, but he is at least a solid backup option.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Saints also made a good pick in the first round of last year’s draft, using the 9th overall pick on Kelvin Banks, who made all 17 starts at left tackle as a rookie and proved to be an above average starter. Banks could be even better in his second season in the league and looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Having cheap young talented players at quarterback and left tackle, two of the most expensive positions in the league, has taken a lot of the pressure off the Saints’ tough cap situation and allowed them to spend in big ways this off-season. 

One of the players they paid was former Bills guard David Edwards, who joins the team on a 4-year, 61 million dollar deal and will start at left guard. Edwards was a little bit of an overpay, ranking 16th in the league among guards in average annual salary, but he has been at least an average starter across 32 starts over the past two seasons and he is still only going into his age 29 season, so he is likely to continue playing at a similar level for at least another couple seasons. He should be an obvious upgrade over Trevor Penning and Dillon Radunz, who both struggled as the starting left guard last season.

At center, the Saints are likely to get better health from Eric McCoy, who missed 10 games with injury last season. Durability has been a concern for McCoy throughout his career, missing 27 games over the past 5 seasons, including 20 games over the past two seasons, but he has mostly been an above average starter when he does play and, still only in his age 29 season, he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthier in 2026. 

Opposite Banks at right tackle, the Saints have another former first round pick, Taliese Fuaga. Fuaga has been just an average starter in 30 starts in two seasons in the league, but he is only going into his age 24 season and he has a big upside, so he could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2026 and have the best season of his career. Even if he doesn’t take a step forward, he should remain at least an average starter. 

The weak link on this offensive line is right guard Cesar Ruiz. Ruiz is also a former first round pick, back in 2020, but he has mostly struggled in 83 starts in six seasons in the league. A lack of depth is also a concern for the Saints because their top reserves are Dillon Radunz, a hybrid tackle/guard who has made 41 starts in 5 seasons in the league, but has mostly struggled, Asim Richards, a mediocre swing tackle with 5 starts in 3 seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie guard Jeremiah Wright. This offensive line should be better than it was last year though, even if they still have some concerns.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Saints also gave a big contract to free agent running back Travis Etienne, making him the 8th highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary with a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension. Running back was a weakness for the Saints last season, as they ranked 31st in the NFL with a 3.69 YPC. Part of the problem was run blocking, as the Saints ranked 23rd in run block win rate, which should improve this season, but the running backs themselves were also part of the problem. 

Etienne is not an elite running back, but he is an experienced lead back who should be significantly better than what the Saints had last season. A first round pick in 2021, Etienne has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season three times and is a decent pass catcher as well, with 1.07 yards per route run in his career, but injuries have significantly affected his other two seasons, as he missed all of his rookie season in 2021 and was limited to 3.72 YPC and 150 carries by injuries in 2024. He was healthy last season though and finished with 1,107 yards and 7 touchdowns on 260 carries (4.26 YPC), with a 36/292/6 slash line as a receiver. As long as he is healthy in 2026, he should be similarly productive in a backfield where he doesn’t have meaningful competition for touches.

Alvin Kamara, the Saints’ long-time lead back, is still on the roster, but he looked like a shell of himself last season (3.60 YPC, 0.78 yards per route run) and there is a good chance he retires or is released before the season starts, ahead of what would be his age 31 season. Even if he remains on the roster, he would see a limited role and probably wouldn’t be a significant factor for this team. If Kamara isn’t on the roster, the #2 running back job will go to either Devin Neal, Kendre Miller, and Audric Estime. 

Neal, a 2025 6th round pick, struggled on 57 carries as a rookie, averaging 3.61 yards per carry, with just 2.39 yards per carry after contact and a 17.5% missed tackle rate. Miller is probably the most talented option, averaging 3.91 YPC, 3.33 yards per carry after contact, a 29.9% missed tackle rate, and 1.37 yards per route run in his career, since going in the 3rd round in 2023, but he has been limited to just 127 carries in 21 games in three seasons in the league due to injuries and he is currently rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in the middle of last season. 

Estime, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2024 and has averaged 4.16 YPC, 3.16 yards per carry after contact, a 18.9% missed tackle rate, over just 122 carries in two seasons in the league. Whoever wins the backup job will only be used to spell Etienne when he needs a rest and, if Etienne misses injuries, the Saints will probably use a committee rather than committing to one of their backup options. This backfield is better than it was last season, but this group is still a little underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Wide receiver was also a big need for the Saints this off-season, as their #2 wide receiver last season in terms of receiving yardage was Rashid Shaheed, who had a 44/499/2 slash line in 9 games before being traded. The Saints addressed this need in a big way by using the 8th overall pick on Jordyn Tyson, who figures to have an immediate impact. Suddenly, this looks like a pretty good receiving corps. Tyson will slot in as the #2 receiver behind Chris Olave, who has averaged a 89/1152/6 slash line per 17 games and 2.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since being selected in the first round by the Saints in 2022. 

Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Olave should have another similarly productive season in 2026 if healthy, though he could see a small downtick in production because Tyson figures to have a big target share too. The “if healthy” part is an important caveat because, even though Olave has only missed 13 games in four seasons in the league, he has a concerning history of concussions and could be forced to miss an extended period of time if he suffers another one in 2025. Tyson also has a concerning injury history, missing time throughout his collegiate career, but, on pure talent, he could have been a top-5 pick if not for the injury concerns, so the Saints could have a steal if he can stay healthy.

Devaughn Vele figures to be the #3 receiver. Acquired from the Broncos before the season last off-season, Vele started the season as the #4 receiver, but operated as the #2 receiver after Shaheed was traded and Brandin Cooks was released, totaling 19 catches for 239 yards and a touchdown in four games in that role before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. Vele also had a 41/475/3 slash line as a 7th round rookie in 2024 with the Broncos and, overall, has averaged 1.38 yards per route run in two seasons in the league. 

Old as a rookie and already going into his age 29 season, Vele doesn’t have a high upside, but he is a solid third receiver. The Saints also used 4th and 6th round picks on Bryce Lance and Barion Brown respectively and Lance figures to have the inside track on the #4 receiver job in a receiving corps that lacks another good veteran option, with Mason Tipton (career 0.42 yards per route run average) being the biggest veteran competition for the #4 job.

With the Saints’ issues at wide receiver last season, tight end Juwan Johnson took on a bigger role in the offense, setting career highs by a wide margin in targets (102), catches (77), yards (889), and yards per route run (1.69) in his 6th season in the league, after previously maxing out at just 66 targets, 50 catches, 548 yards, and 1.39 yards per route run in a season. Johnson should see his usage drop back closer to his previous level with more wide receiver talent added and with Johnson now heading into his age 30 season, but he figures to still be a useful part of this offense.

Foster Moreau (253 snaps), Taysom Hill (211 snaps), and Jack Stoll (210 snaps) all saw snaps as backups last season and are no longer with the team, leaving the #2 tight end job to either veteran free agent acquisition Noah Fant, a decent receiver with a 1.44 yards per route run average in his career, or third round rookie Oscar Delp, a more well-rounded tight end who might be too raw to contribute in a significant way in year one. Thanks in large part to draft day additions, the Saints receiving corps is in a lot better shape now than it was at the end of last season.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints’ defense was the strength of their team last season, ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, as opposed to 27th on offense. The Saints’ offense should be better this season in the first full season of Tyler Shough, with additions made at running back, guard, and wide receiver, but their defense might not be as good due to several off-season losses. One of those losses was edge defender Cameron Jordan, who was not retained for his age 37 season in 2026, but still had 10.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season, despite his advanced age.

To replace him, the Saints traded for Tyree Wilson and Anfernee Jennings, who figure to be downgrades. Wilson at least has some upside, as he was the 7th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and is still only going into his age 26 season, but he has not lived up to his draft slot. He has been a little better over the past two seasons after a dismal rookie year, but he still only has 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 33 games over the past two seasons, so it isn’t a surprise that the Raiders were willing to give him up for a late round pick. Jennings, meanwhile, is a solid run defender who has played an average of 533 snaps per season over the past 4 seasons, but he is a below average pass rusher with a pressure rate of just 8.7% of his career.

The Saints’ top-2 edge defenders are holdovers Chase Young and Carl Granderson. Young is a high level pass rusher, with 32 sacks, 39 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in 72 career games, including a career high 10 sacks, 4 hits, and a career high 17.2% pressure rate last season, and he is an effective run defender as well. The 2020 2nd overall pick, Chase is also still very much in his prime, only going into his age 27 season. 

Injuries are the one concern with Chase, as he has missed 29 games in six seasons in the league, while only once playing all 17 games. He missed 5 games last season and the Saints’ defense was noticeably worse without him, allowing 5.26 yards per play and a 33.13% first down rate without him, as opposed to 4.66 yards per play and a 27.14% first down rate with him. If he can play more games this season, it will be a boost to this defense, but his injury history suggests that is not a guarantee.

Granderson, meanwhile, is a better run defender than pass rusher, but is not a bad pass rusher either, with 28.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 82 games over the past five seasons. He is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he could easily remain an average starting edge defender for another season. This is a decent but unspectacular edge defender group that will probably miss Cameron Jordan, whose replacements figure to be downgrades.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Saints bring back their top-3 in terms of snaps played last season, Nathan Shepherd (695 snaps), Bryan Bresee (667 snaps), and Davon Godchaux (455 snaps), and they also added Cristen Miller in the second round of this year’s draft and get back 2025 3rd round pick Vernon Broughton following a rookie season that ended after 24 snaps in one game because of injury. Bresee, a first round pick in 2023, is the best of the bunch, although largely by default. He struggles against the run, but makes up for it somewhat as a pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 49 career games. Only in his age 25 season, he still has time to get better as a run defender, though that is not a guarantee.

Shepherd, on the other hand, is going into his age 33 season and could easily decline this season. He wasn’t a high level player in his prime either, providing inconsistent run defense and a career 7.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher. With Miller being added in the draft, Broughton returning after a lost rookie year, and Bresee continuing to develop, it seems highly unlikely that Shepherd will lead this position group in snaps again this season. Godchaux, primarily a run defender with a career 4.2% pressure rate, is also going into his age 32 season and could see an even further reduced role in 2026. This is an underwhelming group overall unless young players exceed expectations.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

By far the biggest loss on this Saints defense this off-season is linebacker Demario Davis, who the Saints opted not to retain ahead of what would have been his age 37 season. Davis’ age was a concern, but he hadn’t shown any signs of decline, continuing to play at an All-Pro level in recent years. In his absence, the Saints signed Kaden Elliss, a solid linebacker in his own right, but an obvious downgrade from Davis. Elliss isn’t young either, going into his age 31 season, so he could also decline this season.

Pete Werner, a middling #2 linebacker, remains in that role and, in his age 27 season, should continue playing at a similar level, while playing a snap count similar to the 50.5 snaps per game he has averaged in 58 games over the past 4 seasons. Danny Stutsman, a 2025 4th round pick who showed promise across 204 snaps as a rookie, will also remain in his role as the #3 linebacker. He would be a projection to a larger role, but he is a good option as far as #3 linebackers go and he could easily prove to be capable of handling a larger role if either Elliss or Werner miss extended time with injury. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but the loss of Davis will be a big blow to this defense.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Saints also lost cornerback Alontae Taylor this off-season, but that figures to be the least impactful loss. The Saints replaced him by signing free agent Martin Emerson, who isn’t as reliable as Taylor, but comes with a much higher upside. Emerson had a solid rookie year in 2022 and then an even better second season in the league in 2023, when he allowed 47.1% completion and no touchdowns on 70 targets. However, he regressed significantly in 2024, allowing 62.7% completion and 6 touchdowns with no interceptions and then he tore his achilles and missed the entire 2025 season. The injury and his history of inconsistency obviously make him a risky signing, but he will be more than a full year removed from the injury by the start of the season and, given the top-end ability he has shown and that he is only going into his age 26 season, he could prove to be worth the risk.

The Saints also have a pair of recent draft picks, Kool-Aid McKinstry, a 2024 2nd round pick, and Quincy Riley, a 2025 4th round pick, who also will have big roles. McKinstry built off of a solid rookie season in which he played 680 snaps with an above average second season as a 17-game starter in 2025 and, still only in his age 24 season, his best football could easily still be ahead of him. Riley, meanwhile, had a decent rookie season across 592 snaps last season, as part of the Saints’ impressive 2025 draft class, and will look to build on that in year two in 2026. 

The Saints used another draft pick in this year’s draft on a cornerback, taking Lorenzo Styles in the 4th round to give them additional depth. He will compete with veteran Isaac Yiadom for the #4 cornerback job. Yiadom has shown flashes in limited action in his career, but has never exceeded 634 snaps in a season and is now going into his age 30 season. He’s not a bad depth option, but either he or the rookie Styles could easily struggle if forced into an extended starting role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This is a high upside cornerback group, even if it is relatively young and inexperienced. 

The Saints are also deep at safety and could use three safeties on the field at the same time regularly. Another member of the Saints’ 2025 draft class, 3rd round pick Jonas Sanker was solid across 976 snaps (16 starts in 17 games) as a rookie. Justin Reid is a consistently average to above average starter (117 career starts) who is still in his prime in his age 29 season. Those two are likely their best starting options at the position. However, the Saints also brought back Julian Blackmon, who missed all but one game last season with injury and has missed 34 games in six seasons in the league, but has otherwise been decent when healthy, and they have is Jordan Howden, a 2023 5th round pick who has only averaged 459 snaps per season in his career, but has shown flashes of potential in his limited roles. This is a solid secondary across the board.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Kicking was an issue for the Saints last season. Veteran Blake Grupe began the season as the starter, but hit just 69.2% of his field goals, leading to his release. Charlie Smyth, a 2024 undrafted free agent making his debut, took over from there, but cost the Saints 2.58 points compared to an average kicker in six games. Smyth is currently listed as the starter, but could face competition from undrafted rookie Mason Shipley, who hit 86.4% of his field goals in college, but just 5 of 9 from 50 yards or more. Whoever wins the kicker job is likely to be a below average option this season.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Saints’ roster still is underwhelming overall and, while their offense should be better this season than a year ago, perhaps significantly so, it looks likely that their defense will be worse. However, they face one of the weakest schedules in the league, facing a last place schedule and playing in the worst division in the NFL, so it wouldn’t be hard for them to win enough games to at least be in the mix for the division, given the other options in the NFC South

Prediction: 8-9, 1st in NFC South

Indianapolis Colts 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

The Colts started last season a surprising 7-1 and decided to go all in, trading two first round picks to the Jets for Sauce Gardner, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Things did not go as planned, however. The Colts’ schedule, which was one of the easiest in the league in the first half of the season, turned into one of the hardest in the league in the second half of the season and, making matters worse, Gardner would play just 4 games for the Colts due to injuries, while their starting quarterback Daniel Jones tore his achilles and missed the final 4 games of the season. All in all, the Colts went just 1-8 after acquiring Gardner, missing the playoffs entirely and surrendering the 16th overall pick to the Jets.

However, the situation is a lot better than it would seem. Despite an underwhelming 8-9 record overall, the Colts actually finished the season 11th in point differential (+54), 13th in first down rate differential (+1.12%), 8th in yards per play differential (+0.43), and 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.74), with their underwhelming record largely being the result of a 3-7 record in one-score games. Not having a first round pick in this year’s draft hurts them, but the Colts only had Sauce Gardner for four games last season and getting him back for a full season is more valuable than a first round pick. 

Additionally, another talented cornerback Charvarius Ward was limited to 7 games by injury last season, while top interior defender DeForest Buckner was limited to 10 games. Gardner, Ward, and Buckner are arguably their three best defensive players and they didn’t play a single game together last season. With better health from their key players, the Colts’ defense should be improved from their 22nd ranked finish in schedule adjusted efficiency, perhaps significantly improved.

Having a quarterback coming off of a significant injury is a concern, but even with Jones missing time last season, they still finished 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency on offense. Even when Jones was healthy last season, their offensive success was arguably more about their dominant offensive supporting cast than it was about the play of their quarterback and, when Jones was out, their offensive supporting cast prevented a complete collapse, despite their quarterbacks being Philip Rivers, who hadn’t played in five seasons, and Riley Leonard, a 6th round rookie. 

Jones himself was a reclamation project, signed to a one-year prove it deal last off-season after being cut by the Giants. The 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones was mostly a disappointment in New York, starting 69 games, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.51 YPA, 70 touchdowns, and 47 interceptions, and rushing for 2,179 yards and 15 touchdowns on 399 carries (5.46 YPC), but he consistently had a poor supporting cast. Jones is not as good as he looked last year with the Colts, when he completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 3.64 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 45 carries, but he was never as bad as he looked like the Giants.

The big concern with Jones is durability, not just his recovery from his most recent injury, but an extensive history of injuries that has limited him to 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Even if Jones is ready for the start of the season, there is no guarantee he is 100% and that he doesn’t miss more time. If he does miss more time, the Colts would likely turn back to Riley Leonard, who only had a 67.7 passer rating as a rookie. It seems unlikely he will ever develop into a starting caliber quarterback, but he could wind up being a decent backup. Needless to say, the Colts would be a lot better off if Jones was healthy enough to start the whole season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

There have been a couple changes on the Colts’ offense since last season, one more impactful than the other. The more impactful of the two changes is their trade of Michael Pittman to the Steelers in a salary dump. Pittman had a decent 2025 season, finishing with a 80/784/7 slash line on 111 targets with a 1.46 yards per route run average, but the Colts still have a great receiving corps without him. Alec Pierce has led the team in receiving in back-to-back years, with slash lines of 37/824/7 and 47/1003/6 on yards per route run averages of 1.82 and 2.10 respectively, and he has done that despite target totals of 69 and 84 respectively.

An elite deep threat, Pierce is capable of drawing double teams deep and still making plays, averaging over 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons and managing a 54.9% catch rate, despite inconsistent quarterback play and his high average depth of target (1st in the NFL at 22.8 in 2024 and 2nd in the NFL at 20.0 in 2025). The question is whether or not Pierce can take his game to another level and become a more complete receiver across what figures to be a significantly higher target share in Pittman’s absence. Pierce is only going into his age 26 season, so he could keep getting better and, even if he doesn’t, he is still a very useful option in the receiving game.

Slot receiver Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren also figure to see an uptick in targets, after 88 and 112 respectively last season, and both are possession receivers whose skillsets are more similar to what they lost when Pittman was traded. Downs only had a 58/566/4 slash line and 1.49 yards per route run in 2025, but that was largely because he only had 88 targets. In 2023, when he had 98 targets, he had a 68/771/2 slash line and 1.60 yards per route run and, in 2024, when he had 107 targets, he had a 72/803/5 slash line and 2.20 yards per route run. 

Downs should see a target share in 2026 that is more in line with his target share in 2023 and 2024 and he should see his production bounce back as a result. He is also still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to have his best season yet in 2026. Warren, meanwhile, had a 76/817/4 slash line with 1.63 yards per route run last year, despite being a rookie, and the 2025 14th overall pick could easily take a big step forward in year two in 2026.

With Pittman gone, the #3 wide receiver job will either go to free agent addition Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or incumbent #4 wide receiver Ashton Dulin. Neither are good options, as Westbrook-Ikhine has a career average of 1.03 yards per route run, while Dulin has primarily been a special teamer in his career, catching just 40 passes in 7 seasons in the league. At tight end, Mo Alie-Cox figures to be the #2 tight end again. He was a capable receiver in his prime, but is going into his age 33 season and has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run over the past 4 seasons, so he is mostly on the field for blocking at this stage of his career. The Colts still have an impressive top-3 in the receiving corps, but the loss of Michael Pittman does create a depth problem.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The less impactful loss on this Colts offense is right tackle Braden Smith, who left as a free agent. Smith had been the Colts right tackle for years and had some good years in the past, but he was only an average starter in 13 starts in an injury plagued 2025 season and his injury replacement, 4th round rookie Jalen Travis, outplayed him in 4 starts. Travis is a projection to a larger role and might not be as good over a full season, but he also has the upside to be an improvement over Smith. Smith was probably the weak link on an overall elite offensive line, so if Travis could be an upgrade, that would just further boost this position group. 

At left tackle, left guard, and center, the Colts started players who were among the best in the league at their positions last season in Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, and Tanor Bortolini. Raimann and Nelson have played at that level for several seasons, though Nelson’s age is starting to become a minor concern, in his age 30 season. Bortolini, meanwhile, is a one-year wonder, as the 2024 4th round pick was only average as a rookie. Nelson’s age and Bortolini’s’ lack of elite experience are minor concerns, but, overall, this is still one of the best trios of offensive line starters in the league.

The other starter on this offensive line is Matt Goncalves, a 3rd round pick in 2024 who was about average in 16 starts at right guard last season, after being about average in 8 starts at tackle as a rookie. The Colts seem to prefer him at guard, but he has the versatility to move to tackle if needed in case of injury. That could be needed because the Colts’ top-2 reserves are probably their backup guards, Dalton Tucker and Matt Farmer. Both are underwhelming options though and I only call them their best reserves by default, as Tucker has struggled in 9 career starts and Farmer is a 4th round rookie. Even with minor depth concerns though, this is one of the best offensive lines in the league as their expected starting five is as good as any in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Featured running back Jonathan Taylor was also a big part of the reason for the Colts’ offensive success last season. He definitely benefited from good blocking and a strong offense around him, but he finished the season 3rd among running backs in rushing yards (1,585), 1st in carries (323), and 1st in rushing touchdowns (18), while averaging 4.91 yards per carry, 3.52 yards per carry after contact, a 20.7% missed tackle rate, and a 51.7% carry success rate. Those numbers are largely in line with the 6-year veteran’s career averages, as he has averaged 1,538 yards and 14 touchdowns on 314 carries per 17 games in his career, with a 4.90 YPC, 3.24 yards per carry after contact, a 18.0% missed tackle rate, and a 50.7% carry success rate.

The biggest issue for Taylor in his career has been injuries, as he has missed time in four of six seasons in the league, including 16 games missed from 2022-2024, before he finally stayed healthy again for a full season in 2025. Taylor also isn’t a high level pass catcher, averaging a 38/297/1 slash line per 17 games and 0.91 yards per route run in his career. However, purely as a runner, he is as good as any running back in the league when healthy.

Taylor’s history of injuries made more concerning by the Colts’ lack of depth at running back. DJ Giddens, a 5th round pick in 2025, finished second among Colts running backs in carries with just 26 last season. It’s possible he has upside we haven’t seen yet because he hasn’t gotten a chance to show it, but he is a shaky backup option. Ameer Abdullah only had 14 carries last season, but he did provide value as a passing down back, averaging 1.71 yards per route run, and he wasn’t retained this off-season, leaving the Colts without a good passing down specialist. The Colts added Seth McGowan in the 7th round of this year’s draft, but he wasn’t a good pass catcher in college and isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Giddens as the backup. Taylor elevates this position group significantly, but lack of depth is a concern, especially when coupled with Taylor’s injury history.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Colts struggled on defense last season, in large part due to significant injuries suffered by key players. One of those players was interior defender DeForest Buckner, who was limited to 469 snaps in 10 games by a neck injury that eventually required surgery. Buckner has mostly been very durable in his career, missing just two games in his first nine seasons in the league combined, while averaging 52.3 snaps per game throughout his career, but he has now missed 12 games over the past two seasons combined, he is coming off of a significant surgery, and he is going into his age 32 season, so durability is a question for him going forward.

Buckner’s run defense also declined even before the injury last season, which is also concerning, given his age, but he remained a well above average pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate that actually exceeds his career average of 10.2%. In total, Buckner has 71.5 sacks and 127 hits in 151 career games while playing at an above average level as a run defender in every season of his career except last season. All of this is to say that, while Buckner’s age and recent injury history are concerns, even at less than his best, Buckner should be an above average interior defender and, in the likely case that he will play more than he did last season, that will be a boost for this defense.

Buckner’s return will especially be a welcome addition for this defense because the rest of their defensive tackle room is pretty underwhelming. Grover Stewart used to be an effective running mate for Buckner, but he declined both as a pass rusher and a run defender in 2025 and, now going into his age 33 season, it seems likely that his best days are behind him. It’s possible he will be a little better in 2026 than he was in 2025, but it seems unlikely he will ever regain his old form.

Adetomiwa Adebawore saw the biggest increase in playing time in Buckner’s absence last season, totaling 548 snaps on the season, after the 2023 4th round pick only played 269 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league combined. Adebawore was an effective interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 9.5% pressure rate, but struggled mightily in run defense. With Buckner back, he can play more as a situational pass rusher than an every down option in 2026, which will benefit this defense.

The Colts also took flyers on a trio of interior defenders this off-season, receiving Colby Wooden in a trade from the Packers and signing Jerry Tilley and Derrick Nnadi as free agents. None of them are likely to be effective options. Wooden, a 2023 4th round pick, has struggled as both a pass rusher (5.1% pressure rate) and run defender across 1,077 career snaps. Tillery was a first round pick in 2019 and has had his moments as a pass rusher, but, overall his career 7.1% pressure rate is not enough to make up for his struggles as a run defender and he is now going into his age 30 season. 

Nnadi, meanwhile, was a capable run defender in his prime, but his run defense has declined in recent years and now he is going into his age 30 season. None of the Colts’ three off-season additions are guaranteed a roster spot, though it is likely at least one will have to play at least some snaps in a thin position group. Outside of DeForest Buckner, who has age and injury concerns, this is a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

While most of the Colts’ top defensive players missed significant time with injury last season, one of them, edge defender Laiatu Latu played all but one game and had a breakout season, as the 2024 1st round pick improved on a solid rookie season both as a pass rusher and a run defender, playing at an above average level in both aspects. In total, he had 8.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Latu is technically a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he has always had the talent to be a high level edge defender and his career trajectory suggests he will continue playing at a high level going forward.

The rest of this edge defender group has been completely remade since last season. Kwity Paye (721 snaps), Samson Ebukam (416 snaps), and Tyquan Lewis (323 snaps) all played significant snaps at edge defender last season and are no longer with the team. None of them played at higher than an average level, so this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is unclear if their replacements will be significantly better.

Arden Key was signed to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be the nominal starter next to Latu. Key has been a solid rotational edge defender over the past four seasons, averaging 38.5 snaps per game and totaling 21 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 62 games. The concern is he is going into his age 30 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline and he could easily remain at least a decent rotational player. His primary competition for a starting role will be JT Tuimoloau, a 2025 2nd round pick who ranked 5th on the team among edge defenders with 215 snaps played as a rookie, but who has the talent to be at least a decent rotational player. He and Key may largely split snaps.

The Colts also added veteran Micheal Clemons in free agency and rookies George Gumbs and Caden Curry in the 5th and 6th rounds of the draft and they will compete for deep reserve roles. None are likely to have success in that role, however. Both Gumbs and Curry fell to the late rounds of the draft for good reason, while Clemons is a decent run defender, but has a career 6.9% pressure rate in four seasons in the league and is already heading into his age 29 season. Laiatu Latu elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly, but the rest of the bunch is likely to be underwhelming at best and deep reserve depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Linebacker was a huge position of need for the Colts this off-season. Germaine Pratt, their only capable linebacker last season, was not retained. The Colts also opted to trade away their other starting linebacker Zaire Franklin for salary reasons, although he struggled mightily last season, meaning his loss is likely to be addition by subtraction. However, the Colts’ linebacking corps still remains a weakness. The one veteran addition they made this off-season was Akeem Davis-Gaither, who has mostly been a liability in 6 seasons in the league, on an average of 361 snaps per season with a maximum of 781 snaps per season, which came last season when he was one of the worst starting linebackers in the league with the Cardinals.

Davis-Gaither figures to start in an every down capacity next to second round pick CJ Allen, who was a good value, but could struggle through growing pains in a significant year one role.

For depth, the Colts have 2023 undrafted free agent Austin Ajiake, who has played 157 snaps in his career, 2024 5th round pick Jaylon Carlies, who has played 244 snaps in his career, and 4th round rookie Bryce Boettcher, who would likely struggle in a significant year one role. This group could be a little better than it was last year by default, but it is still likely to be a liability.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback is the position where the Colts figure to benefit the most from better health. Last season, they had 10 different cornerbacks see action for them and almost all of them struggled. This season, with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward returning, they could have one of the best cornerback duos in the league. Gardner, the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league since entering the league, playing at an above average level in all four seasons in the league and playing at an All-Pro level when he is at his best. 

Gardner will remain in his prime for several more seasons, only in his age 26 season, and, perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t really have a history of injury outside of the 6 games he missed last season, missing a total of 3 games in his first 3 seasons in the league combined. Because Gardner was acquired mid-season, he actually only played 4 games for the Colts last season and I would expect much more out of him in 2026, which will be a huge boost for this secondary and defense overall. He has All-Pro potential in his first full season in Indianapolis.

Ward comes with more concern, as he is now heading into his age 30 season and the concussion injuries that limited him to 7 games last season were serious enough for him to consider retirement this off-season. Between his age and injury history, it is possible Ward declines or misses more time this season. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, playing at an above average level in 2025 for the third time in four seasons, with the exception being a 2024 season in which he was dealing with a serious situation in his personal league. Ward comes with some risk, but he could easily remain an above average cornerback in 2026 and, as far as #2 cornerbacks go, Ward is one of the best in the league.

Mekhi Blackmon actually led all Colts cornerbacks in snaps played last season with 784 and struggled in that role, but he is likely to be no higher than 4th on the depth chart this season. Cam Taylor-Britt was signed from the Bengals this off-season and is expected to be the #3 cornerback, a role he should be decent, but unspectacular in. Blackmon isn’t a bad #4 cornerback and actually showed promise across 434 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2023, before missing all of 2024 with a torn ACL and struggling in 2025. His primary competition for the #4 cornerback job is Justin Walley, a 2025 3rd round pick who has potential, but missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL of his own. Veteran Kenny Moore is also still on the roster, though he is expected to be moved before the start of the season.

Safety Camryn Bynum was the Colts’ best healthy defensive back last season, paying off the 4-year, 60 million dollar deal the Colts signed him to last off-season by playing almost every snap for the Colts last season and providing above average safety play. Bynum has made every start over the past four seasons and has consistently been an average or above average starter. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bynum in 2026.

The other starting safety spot is a big concern though. Nick Cross was a liability in that role last season and, while the Colts moved on from him this off-season, they don’t have an obvious upgrade over him. As of right now, third round rookie AJ Haulcy is probably the most likely starting option and, while he was a great value where he was drafted, he could easily struggle as a rookie starter. His primary competitors for the role are 2025 7th round pick Hunter Wohler, who missed his whole rookie season with a foot injury, and veteran Jonathan Owens, who has started just 35 of 82 games played in his career, has mostly been a liability when he’s played, and is now going into his age 31 season. This is a concern in an otherwise very impressive secondary.

Grade: B+

Kickers

The Colts seemed to find a good kicker in Spencer Shrader, who spent his first season in the league in 2024 with three teams, but added 2.11 points above average in 4 games with those three teams and then he added 1.70 points above average in the first 5 games of the season with the Colts in 2025. However, he then missed the rest of the season with injury and, while he has shown a lot of promise, he has still only played 9 games in his career, so his success has come in a small sample size. 

Shrader could face competition for his job from Blake Grupe, who made all 11 of his field goals and all 10 of his extra points in 5 games with the Colts last season, after the mediocre Michael Badgley originally took over for the injured Shrader, but Grupe previously had made just 69.2% of his field goals with the Saints last season, leading to his release. and, even with an impressive stretch to end last season, he has still cost his teams 8.28 points compared to an average kicker in three seasons in the league. Shrader seems like the best option, but his success has come in a limited sample size and is not guaranteed to continue.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The way the Colts’ 2025 season ended was disappointing and they didn’t have a first round pick to help their roster, but they overall were much better than their final record suggested last season and they will get several key players back from injury this season, particularly on defense, where they needed help the most last season. The Colts should be in the mix for a wild card spot or a division title in an AFC South that is still wide open.

Prediction: 10-7, 1st in AFC South

Miami Dolphins 2026 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterback

Seven years ago, the Dolphins adopted an aggressive rebuilding strategy, sick of middling seasons and having not won a playoff game since 2000. They traded away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal. Unfortunately, while the strategy led to post-season appearances in 2022 and 2023, the Dolphins did not win a playoff game in either season, extending their post-season win drought even further.

The strategy was not a bad idea, but they missed on numerous draft picks and, most importantly, they gave a massive extension to a quarterback who wasn’t worth it. After back-to-back seasons missing the post-season in 2024 and 2025, the Dolphins have decided to go back to square one and rebuild even more aggressively this time around. In total, the Dolphins have an NFL record 179 million in dead cap for 2026 and already 57 million in dead cap for 2027. 

This season, the Dolphins’ active cap spending accounts for only about 42.1% of the total salary cap, leading to a roster that almost entirely consists of players on rookie contracts and veterans on minimum or near minimum contracts. On paper, this looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL in recent memory and the situation is made even worse by the loss of talented offensive playcaller Mike McDaniel as head coach, with defensive minded Jeff Hafley coming with an underwhelming offensive playcaller in Bobby Slowik.

The biggest mistake the Dolphins made in their previous rebuild was the selection of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and the subsequent 4-year, 212.4 million dollar extension they gave him to stick around long-term. Tagovailoa had some productive seasons, but his success was largely the result of having an elite offense around him and a great offensive playcaller in Mike McDaniel. 

Last season, with his supporting cast not being what it once was, Tagovailoa completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Having seen enough, the Dolphins opted to move on from Tagovailoa this off-season despite his 54 million dollar salary being fully guaranteed because bringing him back would have risked Tagovailoa suffering an injury, which could have guaranteed his 2027 salary as well. 

The one player the Dolphins did spend money on this off-season was their new starting quarterback Malik Willis, who they gave a 3-year, 67.5 million dollar deal with 45 million guaranteed. A third round pick in 2022, Willis entered the league raw and struggled early in his career as a spot starter in Tennessee, leading to him being traded to the Packers for next to nothing two off-seasons ago, but Willis seemingly came into his own in Green Bay, only making three starts as a backup over the past two seasons, but making the most of his opportunities, completing 78.7% of his passes for 10.92 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while rushing for 6.21 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries.

Obviously that is a very limited sample size in a good situation, but if Willis can be even a fraction of that good over a full season, he will at least be a top-32 quarterback in the NFL. In a vacuum, Willis deserves to be a starter and his contract is reasonable, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Dolphins given the current state of the team. Regardless of what Willis does, the Dolphins figure to have a high draft pick in what should be a good quarterback class in 2027 and, with a terrible supporting cast, it will be very difficult to accurately evaluate whether or not Willis is a good enough long-term starter for it to be worth passing on a highly touted quarterback prospect. 

With Willis’ salary guaranteed for 2027, the result could easily be a situation where the Dolphins use a high pick on a quarterback and again are paying a significant guaranteed salary for a quarterback who isn’t starting. The Dolphins probably would have been better off committing even further to the rebuild and starting either a cheap veteran, a rookie, or 2025 7th round pick Quinn Ewers, a developmental backup who showed a little bit of promise down the stretch last season (85.5 QB rating across 83 pass attempts), rather than committing 45 million guaranteed to a quarterback who is unlikely to be a starter for more than one season, a season where the Dolphins are highly unlikely to be competitive either way. 

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Dolphins’ receiving corps was the biggest victim of their teardown. A couple years ago, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league. However, Waddle was traded for a first round pick and a couple mid round picks this off-season, while age, injury, and off-the-field problems led to the Dolphins releasing Hill outright this off-season. In their absence, the Dolphins have easily the worst receiving corps in the league. 

The Dolphins used a trio of draft picks on the position, but none of them were premium picks, with Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell selected in the 3rd round and Kevin Coleman selected in the 5th round. Bell could have been a 1st or 2nd round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late last season and he is expected to be ready for the start of next season, but he could easily not be 100% in his first season after the injury, especially if he misses most or all of the off-season program and is behind in learning the offense as a result. 

For veteran options, the Dolphins brought in Jalen Tolbert, who has a career 0.97 yards per route run average, Tutu Atwell, who caught 6 passes last season, and Terrace Marshall, who has a career 0.83 yards per route run average and was out of the league last season. The newcomers will compete for roles with the Dolphins’ top holdovers, 2024 6th round pick Malik Washington, who has a career 0.86 yards per route run average, 2024 7th round pick Tahj Washington, who has a career 0.97 yards per route run average, and Theo Wease, a 2025 undrafted free agent with 6 catches as a rookie. None of the Dolphins’ wide receiver options are likely to be much help for new quarterback Malik Willis.

Things aren’t much better at tight end. Greg Dulcich was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has shown promise with a career 1.35 yards per route run average, but that has come in limited playing time, as he only has 67 catches in four seasons in the league. He is expected to start due to a lack of better options. Ben Sims, a blocking specialist with 11 career catches, was added in free agency, while Will Kacmarek and Seydou Traore were added in the 3rd and 5th round of the draft respectively. They will all compete for roles behind Dulcich. This is one of the worst receiving corps in recent memory.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

One player who survived the Dolphins’ off-season teardown is running back De’Von Achane. That was a bit of a surprise and could prove to not be the right move. Achane only has one year left on his cheap rookie deal and history shows that bad teams that spend big money on running backs tend to regret it. This was also a bad running back draft class and Achane is coming off of an elite season that he probably won’t replicate with a worse supporting cast and without talented offensive playcaller Mike McDaniel, so this is probably the highest Achane’s trade value will ever be.

Achane finished the 2025 season with 5.67 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 238 carries, with a 49.2% carry success rate, 4.11 yards per carry after contact, a 20.6% missed tackle rate, and 1.29 yards per route run, in line with his career averages of 5.64 YPC and 22 touchdowns on 543 carries, with a 50.2% carry success rate, 3.85 yards per carry after contact, a 20.1% missed tackle rate, and 1.33 yards per route run. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his production drop off significantly in 2026, given the situation around him, but he is still by far the Dolphins’ best offensive playmaker, both on the ground and through the air.

Achane figures to get the vast majority of the touches in the backfield, with Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon competing for the #2 job. Wright, a 4th round pick in 2024, has averaged 3.89 YPC, a 45.7% carry success rate, 3.35 yards per carry after contact, and a 21.7% missed tackle rate on 138 career carries, while averaging 0.44 yards per route run through the air. Gordon, a 6th round pick in 2025, has averaged 2.84 YPC, a 45.7% carry success rate, 2.10 yards per carry after contact, and a 14.3% missed tackle rate on 70 career carries, while averaging 0.34 yards per route run through the air. Wright seems like the favorite for the backup job, but it is likely both would see a significant role if Achane misses time, something he has done in two of three seasons in the league. Achane has as much talent as any running back in the league, but could see his production decrease significantly due to the situation around him.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

With needs all over the field, the Dolphins could have gone anywhere with their high draft picks, which included a pair of first round picks following the Jaylen Waddle trade. They opted to use their first pick on the offensive line, taking Kadyn Proctor. Using high draft capital on the offensive line at the start of a rebuild is inherently a good idea, but Proctor is a boom or bust prospect, with elite physical traits, but inconsistent tape and a questionable work ethic. He could prove to be the right pick, but the 12th overall pick was probably a little early to take that kind of risk. Proctor played tackle in college, but the Dolphins are working him out at both tackle and guard. Obviously, he would provide more value long-term if he can develop at tackle, but it remains to be seen if that is where the Dolphins believe he will be at his best long-term. 

Where Proctor plays as a rookie will dictate where Austin Jackson, who has played both guard (13 starts) and tackle (47 starts) in his career, will play in 2026. Jackson is also a former first round pick, back in 2020, but he hasn’t lived up to the billing, providing average at best play and consistently missing time with injury, limited to just 60 starts in 6 seasons in the league. Patrick Paul is probably locked in at left tackle again, with Proctor likely to play right tackle if he doesn’t play guard. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Paul wasn’t great in his first full season as the starting left tackle in 2025 (17 starts), but he wasn’t bad either and he has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2026. 

The Dolphins’ best offensive lineman by far is center Aaron Brewer, who played at an All-Pro level last season. It was the best year of Brewer’s career, but not by a lot, so even if he isn’t quite as good in 2026 as he was in 2025, he should remain one of the better centers in the league. Brewer is going into his contract year in 2026 and, while his age isn’t ideal given the long rebuild the Dolphins have in front of them (age 29 in 2026), they should still look to lock him up long-term and keep him around throughout their rebuild to provide a foundation in the trenches.

The fifth and final starting job on this offensive line at guard is probably up for grabs. Jonah Savaiinaea is probably the favorite for the job, but the 2025 2nd round pick was one of the worst guards in the league as a rookie and, even if he improves in 2026, he has a long way to improve to even be an average starter. The biggest reason why he is likely to start is just that the Dolphins don’t have another good option. 

The Dolphins signed veteran Jamaree Salyer in free agency and he has experience at both guard and tackle, with 40 total starts in four seasons in the league, 21 at guard and 19 at tackle, but he has mostly struggled and is best as a versatile reserve. The Dolphins also used a 6th round pick on a guard prospect in DJ Campbell and he could see some starts down the stretch if Savaiinaea struggles, but he is probably not a real contender for the week 1 job and he would likely struggle if he makes starts at any point this season. Compared to a lot of this roster, this offensive line isn’t that bad, but it still looks like a below average group overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ edge defender room is almost as bad as their receiving corps. Chop Robinson is a former 2024 1st round pick and has upside, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. Even Robinson is far from a sure thing. He had an impressive rookie season, particularly as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but he dropped off significantly in year two, struggling as both a run defender and a pass rusher, totaling just 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 7.9% pressure rate. I am not sure why he dropped off so much in year two and it is tough to know what to expect from him in 2026. He has obvious upside, still only in his age 23 season, but he also comes with significant downside.

The rest of the group consists of veteran flyers on cheap contracts and rookies selected with non-premium draft picks. Joshua Uche has upside as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.4% career pressure rate, but his history of injuries and his struggles against the run have led to him playing just 269 snaps per season in six seasons in the league, with a maximum of 373 snaps back in 2022. He could play a career high in snaps in 2026 if he stays relatively healthy, but he is a one dimensional player who could easily be exposed in a larger role.

Other veteran options include free agent additions David Ojabo and Robert Beal and holdover Cameron Goode. Ojabo was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but injuries and ineffective play have limited him to 576 snaps total in 4 seasons in the league. Meanwhile, Beal has played just 292 mediocre snaps in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2023, while Goode has played just 196 mediocre snaps in four seasons in the league since being selected in the 7th round in 2022. The Dolphins also added Trey Moore and Max Llewellyn in the 4th and 7th rounds of the draft respectively, but it is unlikely either will be ready to contribute in a significant positive way in year one. This is a very thin position group full of guys who would not be guaranteed to make most teams’ rosters.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

Along with Chop Robinson, the Dolphins have another recent first round pick on the defensive line, defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, who was selected in 2025. Grant had an underwhelming rookie year across 554 snaps, posting decent pass rush numbers, 2 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate, but struggling against the run. He has the upside to be a lot better in year two, but his career is not off to a great start, which is a concern for a team that is trying to build around young players.

Grant will continue starting next to veteran Zach Sieler. Sieler was an above average player as a pass rusher and a run defender in his prime, but he was just an average starter in 2025 and, now going into his age 31 season, it seems likely that his best days are behind him. After totaling 23.5 sacks, 25 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate in 49 games from 2022-2024, Sieler had just 5.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate in 17 games in 2025 and his run defense declined as well. He could remain a capable starter for at least another season, but it seems unlikely he will bounce back to his prime form and he could decline further.

The Dolphins also used 5th and 7th round picks on interior defenders in the 2025 NFL Draft and those two players, Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers, figure to be their top reserves at the position this season. Both are underwhelming options who didn’t show much promise across snap counts of 465 and 214 respectively as rookies. Even as reserves, they could easily prove to be liabilities. This position group isn’t as bad as some of the Dolphins’ others, but it is an underwhelming group at best.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Dolphins’ linebacking corps is the relative strength of this defense. Top linebacker Jordyn Brooks has his issues in coverage, but he is an above average run defender and has been for several seasons. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect a similar season from him in 2026. Tyrel Dodson struggled as the other starter last season, but the Dolphins used a second round pick on Jacob Rodriguez, who is probably going to start instead of Dodson this season. Rodriguez could have some growing pains as a rookie, but will likely be an upgrade even as a rookie.

Dobson is still on the roster and could retain his starting job, but if that happens that will likely say more about Rodriguez being behind in his development than anything positive about Dobson, who has mostly been a liability as a starter in his career. The Dolphins also used a 4th round pick on Kyle Louis, who is a good developmental option and will provide depth in the short-term. Willie Gay and Ronnie Harrison are also on the roster as potential reserve options. Both have experience as starters, but are best as reserves and are not locks to make the final roster. This isn’t a great group or anything, but it is much more complete than most position groups on the Dolphins’ roster.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins used their other first round pick, the one they acquired in the Jaylen Waddle trade, on cornerback Chris Johnson. Johnson will probably be the Dolphins’ best cornerback as a rookie and, while he definitely has the upside to be an above average starter long-term, Johnson being the Dolphins’ #1 cornerback as a rookie says more about the rest of their cornerback room than it does about Johnson’s NFL readiness, as he could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie.

JuJu Brents is probably penciled in as the #2 cornerback and at least he has some upside too, but he also comes with downside as well. Originally a second round pick by the Colts in 2023, Brents came into the league with a lot of upside and was decent as a rookie across 497 snaps, but a knee injury ended his second season in the league after just 68 snaps and then he was released by the Colts ahead of final cuts last off-season. 

The Dolphins claimed him off waivers following his release and he showed a lot of potential when he finally got his shot, but a foot injury again ended his season after a very limited sample size, as he played just 110 snaps total. Brents is still only going into his age 26 season and has obvious talent, but it is tough to project a player whose success has come in a limited sample size and who has now had major leg injuries in back-to-back seasons. He is worth a shot as a starter, but he probably wouldn’t be a starter for most teams.

Jason Marshall, a 2025 5th round pick, is the Dolphins’ top returning cornerback in terms of snaps played last season, but he played just 243 snaps and struggled in that limited action. He will face competition for the #3 cornerback role from Storm Duck, a 2024 undrafted free agent who has struggled across 403 career snaps, and free agent addition Darrell Baker, who has averaged 606 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but has mostly struggled. 

Things are even worse at safety. The Dolphins top-3 safeties in terms of snaps played last season, Minkah Fitzpatrick (845 snaps), Ashtyn Davis (713 snaps), and Ifeatu Melifonwu (549 snaps), are no longer with the team, leaving Dante Trader, a 2025 5th round pick who was mediocre in 420 snaps as a rookie, as one starter, with the other starting spot going to either 5th round rookie Michael Taaffe or veteran free agent addition Lonnie Johnson, who has played just 622 snaps over the past four seasons combined and now is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a terrible season across 321 snaps. This secondary figures to be one of the worst in the league.

Grade: C-

Kicker

The Dolphins were expecting their starting kicker in 2025 to be veteran Jason Sanders, who had been in the role since his rookie season in 2018, but Sanders missed the whole season with injury, leaving to job to journeyman Riley Patterson, who had kicked for five different teams in the previous four seasons, while accounting for 2.26 points below average. However, Patterson did well in his first season in Miami, accounting for 5.56 points above average. With Sanders no longer with the team, the Dolphins brought in another veteran journeyman, Zane Gonzalez, to compete with Patterson for the job, but Gonzalez has accounted for 4.34 points below average in his career, so Patterson should be considered the favorite for the job.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Dolphins are clearly taking a long-term approach, as evidenced by the fact that more than half of their cap space is dedicated to dead money for players no longer on the team. The result is a roster that almost entirely consists of players on rookie deals and bottom of the roster veteran talents on cheap contracts. On paper, the Dolphins look like one of the worst teams in recent memory and seem very unlikely to win more than a few games. They should be among the teams in competition for the #1 overall pick.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC East

2026 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 4/22/26

1. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

It seems likely that the intrigue in this draft won’t start until the second pick, as the Raiders need a quarterback and Fernando Mendoza is by far the best quarterback available.

2. New York Jets – DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

The Jets might have hinted at their intentions with this pick by trading Jermaine Johnson instead of extending him ahead of the final year of his contract, freeing up a spot for a premium edge rusher. The free agent signings of Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare probably don’t preclude the Jets from using this pick on an edge defender because they are rotational players. David Bailey and Arvell Reese are both strong options, but rumors are the Jets prefer Bailey a little more.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE) – DE Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

This pick is likely to be whoever of Arvell Reese or David Bailey don’t go to the Jets at 2, but who is picking here is the question. Reese and Bailey wouldn’t fill big needs for the Cardinals, who desperately need a right tackle and reportedly would love to trade down, even at a discount. The Chiefs, meanwhile, would love to move up and grab either Reese or Bailey. If the Chiefs can get this done without giving up their other first round pick (29) and instead give up their second round pick (40), I think this trade will happen. The Cardinals would be losing significant value on the trade value chart by doing this, but it may be their best option if they really want to move down.

4. Tennessee Titans – RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

The Titans’ biggest need is edge defender, but if both Arvell Reese and David Bailey are off the board, the Titans may just take the best available player, which could easily be Jeremiyah Love. He would be a significant upgrade over Tony Pollard, whose release would save the Titans 7.25 million.

5. New York Giants – LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

With the Giants acquiring the 10th overall pick by trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, the Giants can now draft the best available player at 5 and focus on bigger needs at 10, where the players that are good fits in that range better fit their needs. The Giants signed Tremaine Edmunds to replace Bobby Okereke in free agency, but I don’t think that precludes the Giants from using this pick on Sonny Styles, who can start next to Edmunds and has a much higher upside than Edmunds.

6. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

The Browns are looking to trade down, which makes sense, because they can address their pressing needs at left tackle and wide receiver later in the first round. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, who have extra draft capital from the Micah Parsons, are looking to move up to secure a defensive player who won’t fall to them at 12. The Cowboys can trade 12 and 20 for 6 and the Browns’ second round pick at 39 in a fair trade that would benefit both teams. Downs is an elite safety prospect who would be a massive upgrade at a position of weakness. Rueben Bain is another option, but the Cowboys are in better shape at defensive end than safety.

7. Washington Commanders – WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

The Commanders depth chart at wide receiver is pretty bare behind Terry McLaurin, who is heading into his age 31 season. Tate could be a short-term #2 wide receiver and a long-term #1 wide receiver for Jayden Daniels.

8. New Orleans Saints – DE Reuben Bain (Miami)

The Saints are in a good position because their biggest needs are edge defender and wide receiver and they will likely have either Carnell Tate or one of the top-3 edge defenders available to them when they draft. In this case, it is Rueben Bain who is available and the obvious choice. He would be a big upgrade for a Saints team that is thin at the edge defender position because they did not retain veteran Cameron Jordan this off-season.

9. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

Mauigoa would be a reach at 3, but he would fill a huge need for the Cardinals in a big way as the draft’s top right tackle prospect. In this scenario, the Cardinals get him at 9 and pick up an extra second round pick in the process.

10. New York Giants – WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

As I mentioned earlier, the players who fit the draft range at 10 better match the Giants needs than the players who fit at 5. Jordyn Tyson would give the Giants a much needed wide receiver, with Wan’Dale Robinson leaving in free agency and Malik Nabers coming off of a major knee injury.

11. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

The Dolphins might not seem like a strong candidate to move down, considering they already have an extra first round pick, as well as four picks in the third round, but they have a ton of needs and need all the draft capital they can get, so if can move down a few spots in the first round and turn one of those third round picks into a second round pick, that might be worth it for them. The Lions, meanwhile, will likely want to move up to secure their preferred offensive tackle.

12. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)

Freeling is the best true left tackle in the draft, but is unlikely to go in the top-10 because he was only a one-year starter in college. If the Browns move down, he would make a lot of sense for them because they are desperate for help at the left tackle position.

13. Los Angeles Rams – WR Makai Lemon (USC)

Davante Adams had a great season in 2025, but he’s going into his age 34 season and a contract year in 2026. Lemon would give them a better #3 wide receiver in the short-term and a potential long-term replacement for Adams as the #2 receiver.

14. Baltimore Ravens – G Vega Ioane (Penn State)

The Ravens guards were a weakness last season and they will be even further exposed in 2026 without center Tyler Linderbaum in between them. Ioane is the best pure guard prospect in the draft and would be a massive upgrade for the run-heavy Ravens offense.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

Cornerback isn’t the Buccaneers’ biggest need, but Delane is too good to pass on at this point. He could easily go earlier than this, but I couldn’t find a good spot for him. The Buccaneers might be his floor and they would be very happy to have a future #1 cornerback, which they probably don’t have on their roster right now.

16. New York Jets – WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)

The Jets were led in receiving last season by Garrett Wilson, who missed most of the season with injury and totalled just 395 receiving yards. The Jets need to invest in a better second option in the passing game.

17. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)

The Dolphins had a desperate need at wide receiver even before trading Jaylen Waddle. Now it’s their biggest need, despite massive needs across the roster. With Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson off the board at 10, it would make sense for the Dolphins to add some extra draft capital and take a wide receiver like KC Concepcion a few picks later.

18. Minnesota Vikings – S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

The Vikings like to use three safeties on the field at the same time in sub packages, but they are thin at the position with Harrison Smith expected to retire. Thieneman is a strong fit if he is on the board at 18.

19. Carolina Panthers – TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

The Panthers somehow haven’t had a tight end with over 400 receiving yards since Greg Olsen in 2016. They could look for one early in the draft to give Bryce Young a much needed weapon over the middle.

20. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – WR Denzel Boston (Washington)

Along with left tackle, wide receiver is a massive need for the Browns in the first round. If they navigate the first round correctly, they can get a left tackle and a wide receiver prospect they are happy with and pick up some additional draft capital in the process.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

Broderick Jones was drafted in the first round in 2026 to be the Steelers’ long-term left tackle, but that didn’t work out, as Jones has struggled throughout his three seasons in the league and now enters his fourth season in the league with an uncertain future due to a neck injury. The Steelers could look for a new left tackle early in this year’s draft.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

The Chargers brought back Khalil Mack this off-season, but he is going into his age 35 season. Meanwhile, their other free agent edge defender, Odafe Oweh, was not retained this off-season.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

The Eagles signed Arnold Ebeketie in free agency to replace Jaelan Phillips, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and they could still use more depth at the position.

24. Cleveland Browns – S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

The Browns need a better fifth defensive back in sub packages. The Browns could target a cornerback, but McNeil-Warren is a better value at this point than any cornerback and he would give them insurance if they aren’t able to extend Ronnie Hickman, who is going into a contract year.

25. Chicago Bears – DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

The Bears signed Grady Jarrett in free agency last year, but he was a disappointment and he is now going into his age 33 season. He has too much guaranteed money left on his contract for the Bears to move on from him this off-season, but they need a long-term replacement who can reduce Jarrett’s role in the short-term.

26. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

The Cardinals need a quarterback of the future and seem very interested in Ty Simpson. They would probably need to move up into the late first round to secure him and perhaps pay a premium to do, but taking Simpson in the first round would give them the benefit of getting an extra year on his rookie deal and the Cardinals can afford to give up their third round pick to get this deal done, given that they got an extra second round pick from the Chiefs in their earlier draft. The Bills, meanwhile, are without a second round pick from the DJ Moore trade and would probably like to grab an early third round pick in exchange for moving back a few spots.

27. San Francisco 49ers – OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

It sounds like Trent Williams will be back with the 49ers in 2026, but they have to be thinking about the future of the left tackle position, with Williams going into his age 38 season. Lomu could be their long-term left tackle of the future and, in the short-term, he could fill a hole at left guard.

28. Houston Texans – DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)

The Texans kept Sheldon Rankins in free agency, but they did not keep Tim Settle, so defensive tackle should be an early target position for them, especially given that Rankins is going into his age 32 season.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)

Injury concerns seem likely to push Jermod McCoy, a top-10 talent, down the board, perhaps out of the first round entirely, but the reward seems worth the risk for the Chiefs at this stage. The Chiefs lost both Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this off-season, so they will need to add a young cornerback at some point relatively early in the draft.

30. Miami Dolphins – OT Max Iheanchor (Arizona State)

Right tackle Austin Jackson misses a lot of time with injury, missing 38 games over the past four seasons combined, and even when he is on the field he could be upgraded. He could also move to guard and be an upgrade there if the Dolphins take an early round tackle.

31. New England Patriots – OT Blake Miller (Clemson)

The Patriots need a long-term right tackle, with Morgan Moses set to go into his age 35 season. Miller could also provide depth at left tackle and guard.

32. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE) – LB CJ Allen (Georgia)

The Seahawks only have four picks in this draft and are known to be very interested in moving out of the first round to add extra picks. The Cowboys, meanwhile, could move back up into the first round with the second round pick they got in their trade with Cleveland to secure a much needed linebacker prospect in CJ Allen. With three picks in the fifth round, it would make sense for the Cowboys to trade a fourth and a fifth round pick to Seattle to get this trade down, which the Seahawks would likely be happy to take.

33. New York Jets – CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)

The Jets’ cornerbacks really struggled last season after trading Sauce Gardner. They added Nahshon Wright in free agency, but he isn’t a huge upgrade and he was only signed to a one-year deal.

34. Buffalo Bills (TRADE) – DE TJ Parker (Clemson)

The Bills signed Bradley Chubb to play opposite Greg Rousseau, but Chubb has an extensive injury history and their depth is lacking at the defensive end position.

35. Tennessee Titans – DE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)

The Titans traded for Jermaine Johnson this off-season, but they needed to add at least two new edge defenders this off-season, so they will probably add another one early in the draft.

36. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Chris Bell (Louisville)

Most teams that take a quarterback in the first round use their next pick on another offensive player and the Raiders badly need a potential #1 wide receiver.

37. New York Giants – DT Caleb Banks (Florida)

Defensive tackle is arguably the Giants’ biggest need, especially after trading Dexter Lawrence, but there isn’t one worth taking at 5. Instead, they can target defensive tackle help in the second round.

38. Houston Texans – G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M)

The Texans added Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith, and Evan Brown in free agency to try to improve their offensive line, which has been a liability for years, but those three are all on the wrong side of 30 so the Texans will still likely add a young offensive lineman at some point in the draft. A versatile option like Bisontis would make sense at this point.

39. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE) – CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)

The Seahawks don’t have a lot of needs, but Tariq Woolen left as a free agent this off-season. They did re-sign Josh Jobe, but he is better as depth than as a starter. Hood would be an option for the Seahawks at 32 and would be a good value after a trade down.

40. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – DT Christen Miller (Georgia)

The Cardinals used their last two first round picks on defensive tackles in Darius Robinson and Walter Nolen, but Robinson has been a massive bust thus far, causing the Cardinals to rely on aging veterans Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell last season, neither of whom were retained this off-season. They should use another early pick on the position.

41. Cincinnati Bengals – CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)

Cam Taylor-Britt left as a free agent and the Bengals should take this opportunity to find an upgrade at the outside cornerback spot for a defense that has consistently been one of the worst in the league over the past few seasons.

42. New Orleans Saints – G Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)

The Saints could upgrade on Cesar Ruiz at right guard and would save a lot of money by releasing him. Pregnon could be an immediate upgrade at a much cheaper price.

43. Miami Dolphins – DE Zion Young (Missouri)

Edge defender is another big need for the Dolphins, who have little on the depth chart behind Chop Robinson and the injury prone Josh Uche, who was only signed to a cheap one-year deal this off-season.

44. New York Jets – RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame)

The Jets franchise tagged Breece Hall, but they might not be able to reach a long-term agreement with him. With four picks in the first two rounds, they could look to the draft for insurance and another running back to pair with Hall in the short-term.

45. Baltimore Ravens – TE Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt)

The Ravens love running two tight end sets and are now thin at the position after losing Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar in free agency. They could look for a new #2 tight end in free agency and a potential long-term successor to Mark Andrews, who is going into his age 31 season and had a down year in 2025.

46. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Malachi Lawrence (UCF)

The Buccaneers signed Haason Reddick to a one-year deal in free agency last off-season to upgrade their edge rush, but he didn’t do much and is now a free agent who is going into his age 32 season. The Buccaneers will need to find another option this off-season. They signed Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had a good season last year, but he is going into his age 31 season with an inconsistent history.

47. Indianapolis Colts – LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)

The Colts have one of the thinnest linebacking corps in the league after trading away Zaire Franklin. They don’t have a first round pick, but they could still find an every down starting option in the second round.

48. Atlanta Falcons – CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)

Mike Hughes is a liability at cornerback opposite AJ Terrell, so the Falcons could target an upgrade with their second round pick.

49. Minnesota Vikings – DT Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)

The Vikings released both of their aging defensive tackles, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, in a cost saving move and now are thin at the defensive tackle position.

50. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – CB D’Angelo Ponds (Indiana)

The Dolphins entered the 2025 season with one of the worst cornerback rooms in the league. Free agent signing Rasul Douglas proved to be a decent option, but he was on a one-year deal and has not been brought back this off-season. Even if he returns, the Dolphins don’t have much else at the position and Douglas is not a long-term solution anyway, going into his age 31 season.

51. Carolina Panthers – S Treydan Stukes (Arizona)

Tre’von Moehrig was a great free agent addition last off-season, but Nick Scott was underwhelming as the starting safety opposite him and is now going into his age 31 season, so they could look for a higher upside option in the draft.

52. Green Bay Packers – DE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)

The Packers are thin at the edge defender position after losing Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare this off-season, which is especially a concern with Micah Parsons coming off of a torn ACL.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Germie Bernard (Alabama)

Michael Pittman is a huge upgrade as the Steelers’ new #2 receiver, but the Steelers are still very thin behind Pittman and DK Metcalf, so they could still use a relatively early draft pick on another receiver.

54. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Gennings Dunker (Iowa)

Lane Johnson is going into his age 36 season and this could be his final season. The Eagles could look to the draft for his long-term replacement.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – G Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech)

The Chargers’ offensive line will be better next season when Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return from injury, but they still have a massive need at guard that they could address early in the draft.

56. Jacksonville Jaguars – LB Anthony Hill (Texas)

The Jaguars didn’t really replace Devin Lloyd this off-season, so they could look to the draft for another linebacker.

57. Chicago Bears – DE Gabe Jacas (Illinois)

The Bears edge rusher room is pretty thin after Montez Sweat. No one else had more than 4.5 sacks in 2025. The Bears tried to trade for Maxx Crosby and, if a trade does not materialize before the draft, expect them to use an early pick on the position.

58. San Francisco 49ers – WR Chris Brazzell (Tennessee)

The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk in free agency, but both are on the wrong side of 30. Including DeMarcus Robinson, three of their top-4 wide receivers are 30 or older, so they could add another young wide receiver through the draft.

59. Houston Texans – DE Derrick Moore (Michigan)

Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are arguably the best edge defender duo in the league, but they lack depth behind them, which is especially a concern with Hunter going into his age 32 season.

60. Chicago Bears – S AJ Haulcy (LSU)

Both of the Bears’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season, so it is likely the Bears will need to look to the draft for at least one new starting safety.

61. Los Angeles Rams – CB Keionte Scott (Miami)

The Rams added two big upgrades at cornerback this off-season in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, but they could add a new third cornerback to their overhauled cornerback room.

62. Denver Broncos – LB Jake Golday (Cincinnati)

The Broncos kept Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad in free agency this off-season, but they released the injury prone Dre Greenlaw, so they could still be targeting a linebacker early in the draft. Both Singleton and Strnad are on the wrong side of 30 and Golday has the upside to be much better than both of them.

63. New England Patriots – TE Max Klare (Ohio State)

The Patriots did not retain Austin Hooper this off-season, leaving them in need of a new #2 tight end, while #1 tight end Hunter Henry is going into his age 32 season, leaving the Patriots in need of a long-term #1 tight end.

64. Seattle Seahawks – RB Mike Washington (Arkansas)

With Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL that is likely to cost him much of the 2026 season, the Seahawks will be looking to add to their backfield relatively early in the draft.

65. Buffalo Bills (TRADE) – LB Josiah Trotter (Missouri)

I don’t have time to do a third round, but I figured I would throw this one in here to tie off the Bills/Cardinals trade from earlier. Linebacker has been a position of weakness for the Bills in recent years due to Matt Milano’s injuries and Milano is now not even on the roster. This could address this need early in the draft.

2026 Top-30 Unrestricted Free Agents

stevenlourie Uncategorized

1. LB Devin Lloyd

A first round pick in 2022, Lloyd has developed into one of the best all-around off ball linebackers in the league. The franchise tag value for linebackers includes rush linebackers and, as a result, is cost prohibitive for off ball linebackers (around 26.9 million), but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lloyd surpass Fred Warner’s 21 million annually and become the highest paid off ball linebacker in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

2. RB Kenneth Walker

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He has been held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season this year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP, so he figures to get paid heavily by a team that envisions him as a true feature back. The Seahawks could have franchise tagged him for about 14.3 million, but probably don’t value him as much as other running back needy teams will.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 30 million guaranteed with Kansas City Chiefs

3. WR Alec Pierce

A workout wonder in the pre-draft process, Pierce entered the league as a raw prospect, but has improved in every season in the league, culminating in his first 1000+ yard season in 2025. Capable of drawing double teams deep and still making plays, Pierce has averaged over 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons and has still managed a 54.9% catch rate, despite inconsistent quarterback play and his high average depth of target. Only going into his age 26 season, Pierce’s best years may still be ahead of him and he figures to get paid heavily by someone who bets on continued development.

Prediction: 4 years, 110 million, 60 million guaranteed with New England Patriots

4. DE Trey Hendrickson

Based on his 2025 salary, Hendrickson would have made 30.2 million on the franchise tag this year, making him the 8th highest paid edge defender in terms of annual salary, which the Bengals saw as cost prohibitive. Hendrickson would be worth that kind of contract if he was still in his prime, but he heads into his age 32 season in 2026. Hendrickson hasn’t really showed signs of slowing down yet and is one of the most productive edge rushers in the league over the past several seasons, totaling the 3rd most sacks in the league since 2020 at 74.5, while adding 79 quarterback hits and a 15.7% pressure rate in 88 games over that stretch, but his age is a complicating factor when determining long-term guarantees. It’s also worth noting that he leaves something to be desired as a run defender and that he missed 10 games with injury last season.

Prediction: 3 years, 84 million, 40 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

5. CB Eric Stokes

A first round pick in 2021, Stokes has always flashed talent, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps total in 2022 and 2023 combined and, upon his return in 2024, he had lost his starting job and played just 587 snaps, despite being healthy enough to play all 17 games. Stokes played pretty well in 2024 though and, after signing a one-year prove it deal with the Raiders last off-season, he took things to another level in 2025, starting all 16 games he played and leading the league in coverage snaps per completion, allowing just 28 completions for 261 yards all season. Still only going into his age 27 season, Stokes’ injury history will likely be priced into his next contract, but if he can continue staying healthy, he could be a steal for a team that needs cornerback help.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

6. C Tyler Linderbaum

Linderbaum is an elite center, but hits the open market because the franchise tag for offensive linemen is based on the top salaries of offensive tackles, making it cost prohibitive for teams to tag interior linemen. Linderbaum isn’t worth the franchise tag value of around 25.8 million, but figures to exceed the 18 million annually that Creed Humphrey makes as the highest paid center in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 84 million, 46 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

7. CB Jaylen Watson

Despite only being a 7th round pick in 2022, Watson showed promise across 440 snaps as a reserve in 2023 and in six games as a starter in an injury shortened season in 2024, before breaking out as a season-long starter in 2025, allowing 59.3% completion and no touchdowns on 59 pass attempts. Despite only one full season as a starter, Watson figures to be highly valued on the open market, given the positional value of cornerbacks.

Prediction: 3 years, 54 million, 40 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

8. DE Jaelan Phillips

A first round pick in 2021, Phillips looked on his way to stardom early in his career, totaling 22 sacks, 32 quarterback hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 42 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he tore his achilles late in the 2023 season, subsequently suffered another knee injury in 2024 that cost him most of the season, and did not seem to be the same player upon his return in 2025, leading to the Dolphins trading him to the Eagles for a third round pick at the trade deadline, rather than extending him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season. 

Phillips started to show his old form down the stretch with the Eagles though and, despite a slow start, finished the 2025 season with 5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while playing all 17 games. Phillips’ injury history will probably be priced into his next contract, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could prove to be a steal for a pass rush needy team if he can prove his injury history is a fluke rather than a long-term concern.

Prediction: 4 years, 90 million, 50 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

9. QB Malik Willis

A third round pick in 2022, Willis entered the league raw and struggled early in his career as a spot starter in Tennessee, leading to him being traded to the Packers for next to nothing two off-seasons ago, but Willis has seemingly come into his own in Green Bay, only making three starts as a backup over the past two seasons, but making the most of his opportunities, completing 78.7% of his passes for 10.92 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while rushing for 6.21 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries. With limited quarterback options available to teams this off-season, Willis will likely get a shot to start somewhere in 2026. He’s still pretty unproven, but comes with a lot of upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 75 million, 30 million guaranteed with Miami Dolphins

10. DT John Franklin-Myers

An underrated part of dominant defenses with the Jets and Broncos in recent years, Franklin-Myers is a versatile defensive lineman capable of rushing the passer from the inside and the edge and he is a solid run defender as well. He has a career pressure rate of 12.9% in four seasons in which he was primarily used as an edge rusher and a career 13.0% pressure rate in three seasons in which he was primarily used as an interior rusher. He’s going into his age 30 season, which will likely affect his long-term guarantees a little, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet and could easily have at least another couple solid seasons left in the tank.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

11. OT Rasheed Walker

Walker leaves something to be desired as a run blocker, but he is an effective pass protector who is responsible for allowing just 14 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 48 games over the past three seasons. Given how valuable pass protectors who can play the blindside are, Walker likely would have been franchise tagged this off-season if not for the Packers’ cap issues. He figures to be paid highly on the open market, given how difficult it is to find left tackles of Walker’s caliber.

Prediction: 4 years, 100 million, 55 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

12. LB Demario Davis

Davis has had a borderline Hall of Fame caliber career, with five All-Pro team appearances, and, despite going into his age 37 season, he hasn’t really shown many signs of decline and was still one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season. There is obviously a risk of a significant drop off in 2026, but that will be priced into his contract value and, if he doesn’t drop off significantly, he could prove to be a steal for a team in need of linebacker help. He figures to get a similar deal to the 1-year, 9 million dollar deal Bobby Wagner got from the Commanders last off-season.

Prediction: 1 year, 10 million, 8 million guaranteed with Buffalo Bills

13. CB Jamel Dean

Dean has been a consistently above average cornerback throughout his 7-year career. The concerns are that he is going into his age 30 season and consistently misses time with injury, maxing out at 884 snaps and 15 games in a season in his career.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

14. DE Odafe Oweh

A first round pick in 2021, Oweh got off to a somewhat slow start to his career, but he has developed into an above average pass rusher, with 22.5 sacks, 31 quarterback hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 47 games over the past three seasons. After a slow start to the 2025 season, Oweh was traded from the Ravens to the Chargers rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency, but he quickly bounced back with his new team. He’s not a true top tier edge defender, but he’s an above average player who could help a lot of teams and, given the constant demand for edge rush talent in the NFL, Oweh could be paid pretty highly this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 72 million, 45 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

15. S Bryan Cook

A second round pick in 2022, Cook took a big step forward in his fourth year in the league in 2025, after previously being a marginal starter. He’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also only going into his age 27 season and will likely be paid well by a team that believes he has permanently turned a corner and, as a result, will remain an above average starter going forward.

Prediction: 4 years, 68 million, 35 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

16. LB Leo Chenal 

One of the best run stopping linebackers in the league, Chenal isn’t bad in coverage either. He has never played more than 31.4 snaps per game in a season since being selected by the Chiefs in the 3rd round in 2022, but that is largely due to having two good every down linebackers on the roster with him in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. Only going into his age 26 season, Chenal will likely be paid by a team who views him as having the upside to be an above average every down linebacker.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 23 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

17. DT Sheldon Rankins

Rankins has been a consistently above average interior defender throughout his career. He’s now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, as his 2025 season was in line with how he’s played throughout his career. He finished last season with 3 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate, while playing the run at a high level and playing 623 snaps total. 

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Houston Texans

18. DT Tim Settle

A 5th round pick in 2018, Settle has developed into an above average interior defender who excels as a pass rusher and holds his own as a run defender as well. In 2024, he played a career high 625 snaps and totaled 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, all of which set or tied his career high, and he was on his way to a similar season in 2025 before missing the final five games of the season with a foot injury. If he is healthy, he should be paid well on the open market, still only going into his age 29 season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 25 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

19. DE Khalil Mack

A future Hall of Famer, Mack is going into his age 35 season, but he hasn’t really dropped off much, totaling 5.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 12 games last season, while playing at a high level against the run. There is a risk that he drops off significantly in 2026, but he is still a worthwhile addition on a short-term deal for teams in need of edge help.

Prediction: 1 year, 20 million, 15 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

20. WR Jauan Jennings

A sparingly used wide receiver over the first four seasons of his career, Jennings was forced into a larger role in 2024 when the 49ers had many wide receiver injuries and, in his first significant role, he finished with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run, more than doubling his yardage total from his first four seasons combined (963). Jennings was not as good in 2025, with a 55/643/9 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run, but he played through a lot of injuries early in the season and got better as the year went on. He’s not a true #1 wide receiver, but he would upgrade a lot of receiving corps and figures to be in high demand this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 60 million, 42 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

21. WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs has never surpassed 724 receiving yards in a season, but that came on just 85 targets last season and he ranked 25th among wide receivers who had at least 75 targets with an average of 1.73 yards per route run and 8th with an average depth of target of 13.2. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s conceivable he could be much more productive in a larger role elsewhere, instead of playing on a Packers offense that spreads the ball around a lot.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Baltimore Ravens

22. WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson is a former second round pick, surpassed 1000 yards receiving last season, and is only going into his age 25 season, but his lack of size at 5-8 185 could prevent teams from viewing him as a true #1 receiver. He still figures to be in high demand this off-season though. 

Prediction: 3 years, 63 million, 45 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

23. WR Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has always flashed talent, but has never put it together for a full season, missing 15 games with injury and totaling just 242 targets in four seasons in the league. The deep threat has averaged 9.27 yards per target, 1.75 yards per route run, 14.7 yards per catch, and an average depth of target of 13.5 in his career, while also adding four return touchdowns on special teams. He figures to be paid significantly based on his upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 35 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

24. LB Kaden Elliss

A hybrid reserve edge rusher/linebacker early in his career, Elliss became an every down off ball linebacker in 2022 and has been an above average starter ever since, excelling against the run and as a blitzer, while also holding his own in coverage. The problem is he is going into his age 31 season in 2026, which will affect his market, even if he hasn’t shown real signs of decline yet.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 24 million guaranteed with Denver Broncos

25. LB Devin Bush

Bush was a disappointment early in his career, after being selected in the first round in 2019, but injuries were a big part of the reason for his early career struggles and he has broken out as an above average starter over the past two seasons, playing well both in coverage and against the run, while only missing one game between the two seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, Bush is young enough to earn a significant payday in free agency this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

26. CB Roger McCreary

McCreary was a solid starting cornerback for the Titans from his rookie season in 2022 through the middle of last season when he was traded to the Rams, rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency. McCreary was more of an insurance policy for the Rams than anything and played very little for them, but it can be tough for a player to get traded mid-season and make an impact on his new team, so I don’t hold it against him much. Still only in his age 26 season, he’s a solid, if unspectacular starting cornerback option for teams in need this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 31 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

27. C Connor McGovern

Miscast as a guard earlier in his career, McGovern made the move to center for the Bills two seasons ago and has been an above average starter there since making the switch. Relatively young in his age 29 season, McGovern should remain an above average starting center for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 4 years, 48 million, 25 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

28. CB Martin Emerson

Emerson had a solid rookie year in 2022 and then an even better second season in the league in 2023, when he allowed 47.1% completion and no touchdowns on 70 targets. However, he regressed significantly in 2024, allowing 62.7% completion and 6 touchdowns with no interceptions and then he tore his achilles and missed the entire 2025 season. The injury and his inconsistency obviously make him a risky signing, but he will be more than a full year removed from the injury by the start of the season and, given the top-end ability he has shown and that he is only going into his age 26 season, he could prove to be worth the risk.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

29. S Jalen Thompson

Thompson is an experienced starting safety with 87 career starts and is still only going into his age 28 season. He doesn’t have a huge upside, but he should remain a solid starting safety for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 24 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

30. RB Travis Etienne

A first round pick in 2021, Etienne has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season three times and is a decent pass catcher as well, with 1.07 yards per route run in his career, but injuries have significantly affected his other two seasons, as he missed all of his rookie season in 2021 and was limited to 3.72 YPC and 150 carries by injuries in 2024. The Jaguars seem willing to move on from him unless he comes at a discount, in favor of 2025 4th round pick Bhayshul Tuten, but he still figures to be paid as a starter somewhere this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 22 million guaranteed with New Orleans Saints

NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie NFL Picks

2025

Total Against the Spread: 150-129-6 (53.76%)

Pick of the Week: 10-8 (55.56%)

High Confidence Picks: 23-24-1 (48.94%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 37-28-2 (56.92%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-60-3 (53.85%)

Low Confidence Picks: 53-37-3 (58.89%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-32 (45.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 18-18 (50.00%)

2024

Total Against the Spread: 157-122-6 (56.27%)

Pick of the Week: 9-9 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 17-9-2 (65.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-21-2 (66.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-39-4 (63.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-46-2 (53.06%)

No Confidence Picks: 37-37 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 10-19 (34.48%)

2023

Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)

Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)

No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)

2022

Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)

Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)

No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)

2021

Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)

2020

Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)

Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)

No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)

2019

Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)

Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)

No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)

2017

Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)

Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2016

Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)

No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)

2015

Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)

Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)

2014

Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)

Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)

High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)

No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2013

Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)

Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1849-1621-92 (53.29%)

Pick of the Week: 127-89-10 (58.80%)

High Confidence Picks: 222-161-16 (57.96%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 510-398-17 (56.17%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 859-648-43 (57.00%)

Low Confidence Picks: 550-524-22 (51.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 440-449-27 (49.49%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 258-290-1 (47.08%)

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl LX Pick

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Seahawks, Super Bowl LX Pick

New England Patriots (17-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in Super Bowl LX

The Seahawks are the better of these two teams, but I don’t think the gap between these two teams is big enough to justify a 4.5-point spread, with about 30% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play at +1.17 and 1st in first down rate differential at +5.43%, but the Patriots aren’t far behind, ranking 2nd in yards per play at +1.03 and 3rd in first down rate differential at +3.01%. The Seahawks have faced a significantly tougher schedule and have better special teams, but, even when those are factored in, the Seahawks are only about 4 points ahead of the Patriots in schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings have these two teams even closer than that, with about a 3-point gap between these two teams, as a result of the Patriots being in a slightly better injury situation. Both teams have had key players miss time and return this season, but the Patriots have had slightly more. For the Patriots, the key players who have missed time and returned are starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (3 games missed), lead running back Rhomandre Stevenson (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Mack Collins (4 games missed), starting left tackle Will Campbell (4 games missed), starting left guard Jared Wilson (4 games missed), top cornerback Christian Gonzalez (3 games missed), top linebacker Robert Spillane (4 games missed), top defensive tackle Milton Williams (5 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Anfernee Jennings (3 games missed) and Kryisis Tonga (4 games missed).

Meanwhile, for the Seahawks, their shorter list includes starting left tackle Charles Cross (3 games missed), starting center Jalen Sundell (4 games missed), top cornerback Devon Witherspoon (5 games missed), top safety Julian Love (9 games missed), slot cornerback Nick Emmanwori (3 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Derick Hall (3 games missed), and Jarren Reed (4 games missed). The Patriots are also the healthier team going into this game, essentially at full strength, while the Seahawks continue to be without rotational running back Zach Charbonnet for the 3rd straight game. 

History is also not on the side of the Seahawks covering this spread. Since 2000, favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-11 ATS and 6-7 straight up in the Super Bowl. That alone isn’t a reason to bet the Patriots, but it backs up the rest of my analysis that suggests this line is a little too high. The Super Bowl is the most bet game of the season and the sportsbooks know they can boost the spread a little bit more than they otherwise would and casual bettors will still take the favorite, as they are in this game, with about 75% of the money on the Seahawks. I like the Patriots for a small wager.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +4.5

Confidence: Medium

2021 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

There are a lot of great players in this draft, but, as a rule of thumb, I tend to prioritize franchise quarterbacks going to quarterback needy teams over any other position and I tend to stick with the original pick whenever it makes sense, especially if the team extended their original pick on a big contract. Both are true in this case, as Trevor Lawrence signed a 5-year, 275 million dollar extension with the Jaguars two off-season ago, which still makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary and, while he he has had his up and downs, he is coming off of a career best 2025 campaign. He completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, while scoring 38 total touchdowns to 15 total turnovers and leading the Jaguars to a 13-4 record in the first year of new head coach Liam Coen. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Lawrence is set up to be the Jaguars’ franchise quarterback long-term. I don’t think the Jaguars want a do over on this, even with other great players on the board.

2. New York Jets – WR Ja’Marr Chase (LSU)

The Jets, on the other hand, would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Zach Wilson, is one of the biggest busts in recent memory. There isn’t another good quarterback option to give the Jets here, but the Jets will have their pick of some All-Pro caliber players at other positions. Micah Parsons probably would have been the pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late in the 2025 season, but Ja’Marr Chase is not a bad player for the Jets to pivot to. One of the best wide receivers in the league, averaging a 113/1490/12 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just 7 games total, Chase would be a massive upgrade for a Jets team that was led in receiving in 2021 by second round rookie Elijah Moore, who had just 538 receiving yards. Chase probably wouldn’t be as productive away from Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but he is too good for the Jets to pass on.

3. San Francisco 49ers – DE Micah Parsons (Penn State)

Here is another team that would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Trey Lance, was just as big of a bust as Wilson, arguably even more so, when you consider the 49ers traded away three first round picks to select him 3rd overall. Luckily, the 49ers found Brock Purdy with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to give them the franchise quarterback they thought Lance would be. Otherwise, the failed Lance pick would be even more of a blunder. In this redraft, they can take a player actually worth three first round picks. Parsons’ torn ACL late in the 2025 season dampens his long-term outlook somewhat, but before the injury, he had been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league since his rookie year, totaling 65 sacks, 80 hits, and an 18.8% pressure rate in 77 career games. He would give the 49ers a much needed upgrade opposite Nick Bosa, giving the 49ers the best edge defender duo in the league.

4. Atlanta Falcons – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

The Falcons missed out on Ja’Marr Chase when they took tight end Kyle Pitts over him the first time around and now Chase goes two picks ahead of them in this re-draft, but the Falcons still can get a great wide receiver in this draft, much needed since their leading wide receiver in 2021 was Russell Gage, who had just a 66/770/4 slash line and then left in free agency the following off-season. St. Brown, who originally fell to the 4th round somehow, has proven to be a steal for the Lions, averaging a 112/1281/9 slash line per 17 games with two total games missed in his career. In most years, he would be the first wide receiver off the board in a re-draft.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)

The Bengals lose their original pick Ja’Marr Chase, but, given that they already had Tee Higgins on the roster and that their offensive line play has consistently held this team back, adding an elite offensive lineman in a re-draft rather than Chase might actually make them better in the long-term. Originally the 7th overall pick to the Lions, Sewell has developed into the best right tackle in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 80.6, 91.0, 87.5, and 95.2 in his five seasons in the league, while making each of the last four Pro Bowls and each of the last three 1st team All-Pros.

6. Miami Dolphins – CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)

The Dolphins original pick here, Jaylen Waddle, was not a bad selection and the Dolphins rewarded him with a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, but they can shoot a little higher in this re-draft with 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain. The anchor of the Broncos’ elite defense, Surtain has made four Pro Bowls, two All-Pro first teams and one All-Pro second team in his career and is arguably the best player in the league at his position.

7. Detroit Lions – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

The Lions lose out the most in this redraft, with two players they selected in the original draft going in the top-5 already, but the Lions can at least replace St. Brown with another high level wide receiver. Collins took a couple years to start producing at a high level, but that could be in part due to his poor quarterback play in those two years. Since being paired with CJ Stroud in 2023, Collins has averaged a 89/1384/9 slash line per 17 games over the past three seasons. Durability has been a minor concern, as he has missed 19 games in five seasons in the league, but he is true #1 receiver when healthy and he is the best available option on the board for the Lions, after the numerous All-Pro caliber players selected before this pick.

8. Carolina Panthers – CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)

Jaycee Horn was the Panthers’ original pick here. Injuries were a big concern for him early in his career, as he missed 29 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he always flashed talent and put it all together in 2024, when he played 15 games, earning a 4-year, 100 million dollar extension, which makes him currently the 3rd highest paid cornerback in the league in average annual salary. Horn then lived up to that extension in 2025, when he played a career high 16 games and continued playing at a high level, making his second straight Pro Bowl. You could argue there are better players left on the board, but I don’t think the Panthers want a redo on this selection.

9. Denver Broncos – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

The Broncos miss out on their original first round pick, Patrick Surtain, but they also originally drafted another elite player in this draft, taking Quinn Meinerz in the third round. Meinerz’s small school status and his position caused him to fall to the third round originally, but he has developed into one of the best guards in the NFL, receiving PFF grades of 67.4, 77.7, 83.7, 88.2, and 90.9 in five seasons in the league, while making the first team All-Pro in back-to-back seasons. It’s normally hard to justify taking a guard this high, but Meinerz is arguably the best guard in the league and the Broncos are clearly thrilled with him, extending him as soon as possible two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal, which now looks like a great value.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Devonta Smith (Alabama)

Devonta Smith is not the true #1 receiver that the wide receivers taken ahead of him are, but the Eagles took him here originally and have to be pretty happy with him. They extended him on a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago and he has averaged a 82/1067/7 slash line per 17 games, despite playing on one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Even if he’s not elite, he’s a good fit for the Eagles’ offense and they would probably take him again, given their other options.

11. Chicago Bears – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

Centers don’t often go this high, but Humphrey is probably the best center in the league, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, 92.8, and 88.8 in five seasons in the league, while making four straight Pro Bowls, two 1st team All-Pros, and one 2nd team All-Pro in his career. He would be a big help for the Bears, whose starting center in 2021 was Sam Mustipher, who ranked 37th among 41 eligible centers on PFF that season. The Bears eventually found a great center in Drew Dalman, who they signed in free agency last off-season, but Humphrey solves the issue faster and is a better player than even Dalman is.

12. Dallas Cowboys – DE Greg Rousseau (Miami)

The Cowboys don’t get Micah Parsons this time around, but Greg Rousseau is a great edge player in his own right. His 32 sacks in 78 career games don’t jump off the page, but the Bills rotate defensive ends more than most teams, leading to Rousseau playing just 589 snaps per season in his career, and, despite that, he still has added 60 hits to those 32 sacks, while being one of the most efficient edge rushers in the league on a per snap basis, recording a 13.9% pressure rate in his career and a 14.4% pressure rate over the past three seasons. He could easily have a much higher sack total in a bigger role.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)

Rashawn Slater, the Chargers’ original pick here, has been one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy in his career, with PFF grades of 83.6, 76.6, and 91.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively. Unfortunately, he has missed all or most of his other two seasons due to injury, including the entirety of the 2025 season. The Chargers extended him on a 4-year, 114 million deal last off-season right before his injury, making him the highest paid offensive tackle in the league in average annual salary, and, given how badly their offensive line fared in his absence, I don’t think they have any regrets about that deal and would draft him again if given the chance, given the other available options.

14. New York Jets – WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)

The Jets already got Ja’Marr Chase out of this draft, but their need for wide receiver help in 2021 was so dire that they could definitely double up on the position with their two first round picks if the right player falls to them. In this case, the right player does fall, as I have been trying to fit Jaylen Waddle in somewhere for the last few picks. He is not an elite #1 receiver and probably wouldn’t go 6th overall to the Dolphins again, but has averaged a 81/1098/6 slash line per 17 games in his career and would still go off the board fairly early, even in a deep wide receiver class.

15. New England Patriots – OT Alaric Jackson (Iowa)

The Patriots’ original first round pick here, Mac Jones, did not work out in New England and the Patriots moved on after three years. Jones fared better in San Francisco this season, but the Patriots probably wouldn’t give him another shot in a re-draft. Instead, they beef up an offensive line that was part of the reason why Jones struggled for much of his time in New England. Alaric Jackson somehow went undrafted the first time around, but he has developed into a solid left tackle for the Rams, making 45 starts in the past three seasons and receiving season-long PFF grades of 66.2, 78.3, and 82.9 over that time.

16. Arizona Cardinals – G Trey Smith (Tennessee)

The Cardinals have had offensive line issues for years, especially at guard. In 2021, three of the four players who made starts at guard for them finished below average on PFF. Trey Smith, on the other hand, has PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, 78.8, and 68.5 in his five seasons in the league, while starting 79 of a possible 85 games over that stretch and making two Pro Bowls.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

The Raiders’ original pick here, right tackle Alex Leatherwood, was seen as a reach at the time and proved to be a massive bust, lasting just one season in Las Vegas. Spencer Brown, on the other hand, is a former third round pick who took a couple years to develop, but who has turned into one of the better right tackles in the league, receiving PFF grades of 68.1, 73.6, and 76.2 over the past three seasons. He would have immediately been a better pick than Leatherwood and would have developed into a much needed high level offensive lineman on an offensive line that was otherwise one of the worst in the league in 2025.

18. Miami Dolphins – DE Jaelan Phillips (Miami)

Jaelan Phillips had an up and down career in Miami after being selected with this pick originally. He looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the best edge defenders in the league with PFF grades of 87.7 and 79.8 in 2022 and 2023, while totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games over those two seasons, but he tore his achilles down the stretch in 2023 and was limited to 134 snaps in 2024 due to various injuries. Upon his return in 2025, he was solid, but not as good as before, leading to the Dolphins trading him away to the Eagles for a third round pick at the deadline, at which point he seemed to find his old form, finishing the year with a 74.0 PFF grade, 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate in 17 games, despite a relatively slow start. All things considered, the Dolphins would probably draft him again, given the circumstances, especially since he did return a relatively high pick once he was eventually traded, and he seems likely to get a big contract as a free agent on the open market this off-season, assuming the Eagles don’t franchise tag him.

19. Washington Commanders – G Sam Cosmi (Texas)

The Commanders’ original pick here, Jamin Davis, proved to be a bust, but their second round pick this year, Sam Cosmi, was a much better selection. He has received PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, 80.6, 68.1, and 76.3 in five seasons in the league, originally moving back and forth between right tackle and guard, before settling in at guard. Injuries have been a concern for him, costing him 27 games in five seasons, but the Commanders still locked him up on a 4-year, 74 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago and would probably want to keep him in a redraft, even if it meant using their first round pick on him this time around.

20. New York Giants – OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)

Darrisaw could have been a top-15 or even top-10 pick if I had done this a year or two ago, but Darrisaw tore his ACL midway through the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, missing seven games and falling to a 65.9 PFF grade, after grades of 71.9, 90.3, 82.4, and 81.4 in his four previous seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Darrisaw could easily bounce back, but he is a riskier pick than he would have been pre-injury. The Giants take a chance on him and could wind up getting a steal, especially given how much they have needed offensive line help in recent years.

21. Indianapolis Colts – TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)

Kyle Pitts never lived up his draft slot after being taken 4th overall by the Falcons, making him the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, but, despite his ups and downs, he still has the 8th most catches and the 4th most receiving yards by a tight end since entering the league and would probably still be taken in the first round by someone. Still only going into his age 26 season, Pitts posted career highs in catches (88) and touchdowns (5) in 2025, while finishing with the second highest yardage total of his career (926) and figures to either get a big contract or the franchise tag this off-season. The Colts had next to nothing at the tight end position until drafting Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft and Pitts would have given them a much needed weapon over the middle four years sooner.

22. Tennessee Titans – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

Milton Williams took a few years to develop, but he has turned into one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. In 29 games over the past two seasons, he has 8.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.8% pressure rate and, while his run defense isn’t as good, he would still be a valuable addition to any defensive line. His slow start to his career causes him to not go as high as he otherwise would, but he would be a good fit in Tennessee inside next to Jeffery Simmons.

23. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Ernest Jones (South Carolina)

The Vikings had Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr as their top-2 linebackers in 2021 and they were once a talented duo, but they were getting to the end of their time in Minnesota, with 2021 being Barr’s final season and Kendricks leaving after 2022. In the meantime, Ernest Jones could have been an upgrade over third linebacker Nick Vigil before becoming an every down player in 2022. Originally a 3rd round pick, Jones became a starter as a rookie for the Super Bowl Champion Rams (7 starts) and has made 56 starts in four seasons since with the Rams, Titans, and Seahawks, developing into a high-level every down middle linebacker.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Mac Jones (Alabama)

Mac Jones was a tough player to slot. Obviously he was a bust with the Patriots, but he showed signs of being a solid starter at times in New England and showed even more signs as an injury fill-in with the 49ers in 2025. He figures to be a hot commodity on the trade market this off-season and will likely be starting somewhere in 2026. In a weak quarterback class in 2021, that is probably enough for him to get a late first round look from a quarterback needy team. In Pittsburgh, he could have sat for a year behind Ben Roethlisberger and overall he would have been in a better situation than he was in New England for a Steelers team that drafted a much bigger first round pick bust in Kenny Pickett the year after this draft. As of 2025, the Steelers have still not found a long-term franchise quarterback, going from stopgap to stopgap over the past few seasons.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Osa Odighizuwa (UCLA)

I thought about sticking with the Jaguars original first round pick, running back Travis Etienne, who had his moments in Jacksonville, including three seasons of 1,400 yards from scrimmage, but he hasn’t quite been the elite level of running back that is deserving of being a first round pick and the Jaguars are not expected to prioritize re-signing him as a free agent this off-season. Instead, the Jaguars address a need at defensive tackle that has persisted for years. Osa Odighizuwa leaves something to be desired as a run stopper, but he is a consistently above average interior pass rusher, with 17 sacks, 59 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 84 games over the past five seasons. Originally a third round pick by the Cowboys, Odighizuka was extended on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal last off-season that looks like a solid value, making him the 16th highest paid interior defender in the league.

26. Cleveland Browns – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

The Browns had one of the worst defensive tackles rooms in the league in 2021. Barmore would have gone higher if hadn’t missed a large portion of two seasons with injury, but he has 15.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate when on the field in his career, across 65 games. He is not nearly as good as a run defender, but his pass rush ability makes him a worthy pick here.

27. Baltimore Ravens – S Talanoa Hufanga (USC)

The Ravens had an underwhelming safety room in 2021 and used their second round pick Brandon Stephens extensively as a rookie, only to see him struggle and eventually move to cornerback. The Ravens signed Marcus Williams to a big contract during the 2022 off-season, but he never lived up to it. A player like Talanoa Hufanga would have allowed the Ravens to avoid that mistake. Hufanga was 1st team All-Pro in 2022 and, while injuries limited him to just 885 underwhelming snaps played over the next two seasons, he bounced back to make the 2nd team All-Pro in 2025, after signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal last off-season. Only going into his age 27 season, Hufanga will be a steal at that price if he can continue avoiding injuries.

28. New Orleans Saints – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

The Saints originally used their second round pick in this draft on linebacker Pete Warner who has been decent, but Bolton would be an upgrade inside next to Demario Davis. He would cost them their first round pick in this redraft, but he would be worth it. Originally a second round pick by the Chiefs, Bolton has developed into an above average every down player.

29. Green Bay Packers – C Drew Dalman (Stanford)

The Packers used their second round pick in this draft on Josh Myers and he immediately became a starter at center, but Dalman would be a big upgrade. He took a couple years to develop and has been inconsistent as a pass protector, but he has PFF grades of 82.3, 78.8, and 77.5 over the past three seasons, including grades of 90.0, 79.8, and 79.0 as a run blocker. The Bears signed him to a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, making him the 4th highest paid center in the league by average annual salary, and he proved to be worth it, making his first career Pro Bowl in 2025.

30. Buffalo Bills – DE Odafe Oweh (Penn State)

The Bills’ original pick Greg Rousseau went way higher in this re-draft, but Oweh is not a bad replacement. He has 30.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 79 games in five seasons in the league. After a slow start to his contract year in 2025, he was traded to the Chargers from the Ravens and, after bouncing back nicely, he figures to get a significant payday this off-season. Even with his slow start to 2025 and eventual trade, the Ravens, who got a solid safety in Alohi Gilman in return for him, might still draft him again at 31 in a re-draft if they had the chance. The Bills deny them that opportunity and take him one spot earlier.

31. Baltimore Ravens – DT Alim McNeill (NC State)

The Ravens miss out on Oweh and pivot to an interior pass rusher. McNeill tore his ACL late in the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, with 1 sack, 1 hit, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 10 games and a 47.2 run defense grade on PFF, after 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate PFF run defense grades of 79.3 and 64.5 in 27 games in his previous two seasons. Still, he is only going into his age 26 season in 2026 and could easily bounce back another year removed from his injury. 

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Tre’von Moehrig (TCU)

The Buccaneers did not have a lot of needs in the 2021 off-season, returning all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning team in 2020, but they could have used a long-term starter at safety next to Antoine Winfield. Moehrig could have been a reserve for a year, before taking over as the starter in 2022. He has been a solid safety in his career, leading to him receiving a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal from the Panthers last off-season, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in average annual value.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots

New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Medium