2024 NFL Mock Draft (Final)

  1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)*
  2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)*
  3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)*
  4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)*
  5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
  6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)*
  7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)*
  8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)*
  9. Chicago Bears – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)*
  10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
  11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT JC Latham (Alabama)
  12. Denver Broncos – QB Michael Penix (Washington)*
  13. Las Vegas Raiders – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)
  14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
  15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
  16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
  18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
  19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
  21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
  22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
  23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
  25. Green Bay Packers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)
  27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
  28. Buffalo Bills – WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
  29. Detroit Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
  30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)
  32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

2024 NFL Mock Draft

Updated: 3/27/24

Next update: Early-to-mid April

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has been locked into this spot for months. The only question has been whether the Bears would trade this pick for a king’s ransom or use it themselves, but the most likely option was always keeping the pick and that was confirmed when the Bears traded incumbent quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers for a conditional draft pick in 2025, freeing up their starting quarterback spot for Williams.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

In a way, this is where the draft really begins, with Williams to the Bears at #1 being a lock. The Commanders will almost definitely be using this pick on a quarterback, with veteran journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only quarterback of note on their roster, following the trade of incumbent starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks. Which quarterback that will be is not as clear, with strong cases to be made for both Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy. I could see any of three going here, but rumors are that the Commanders’ new front office loves the high upside Maye over the more polished Daniels, with McCarthy as the wild card option.

3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

The Patriots could use this pick on Marvin Harrison, a generational wide receiver prospect, after striking out on wide receivers in free agency, or they could trade down and accumulate multiple picks to address their many needs, but I still think it’s most likely that they take one of the quarterbacks that Washington doesn’t. A franchise quarterback is still the most valuable asset in the NFL and opportunities to pick high in a strong quarterback draft don’t come every year.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Arizona is in a good spot as the highest drafting team that doesn’t need a quarterback. They could trade down here with a team that needs a quarterback and accumulate more picks, or they could take the consensus best non-quarterback in the draft in Marvin Harrison, who would fill a huge need at wide receiver. A trade is a possibility, but the price will probably be steep because of the opportunity cost of not getting Harrison and the Cardinals already have another pick in the first round, so I think it’s more likely that they just stay put and take Harrison.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

The Chargers are also in a good spot at 5, not needing a quarterback, because they can either take Harrison if the Cardinals trade down with a quarterback needy team or they can be the ones to trade down for multiple picks if the Cardinals opt to take Harrison. In this scenario, the Cardinals take Harrison and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings, who acquired another first round pick (23) in a trade with the Texans and, as a result, can present the best package to move up. The Vikings are desperate for a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins and replacing him with Sam Darnold and they reportedly love JJ McCarthy, who is a likely top-10, if not top-5 pick, depending on trades. A package of their original first round pick at 11, the Texans’ pick at 23, and a later pick in 2025 should be enough to get this done and it would make a lot of sense for the Chargers, who don’t need a quarterback, but have multiple pressing needs.

6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants could take JJ McCarthy here if he’s available, with Daniel Jones likely to be released at the end of next season when his guaranteed money is up, but Minnesota moved up ahead of them to grab McCarthy, so the Giants will have to address another position. Fortunately, they do have many other pressing needs, including wide receiver, where the Giants lack a #1 option or even a good #2. Malik Nabers is an option to be the second wide receiver off the board behind Harrison, but I think Odunze is a little bit ahead of him right now. He’d give Daniel Jones the true #1 option he’s never really had and, in the likely scenario that the Giants decide to move on from Jones in a year when his guaranteed money is up, Odunze will make life easier for whoever their next quarterback happens to be.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

The Titans are another team with a ton of needs, but their biggest one is offensive line and fortunately this is a very strong offensive line class. The Titans used a first round pick on Peter Skoronski in last year’s draft, but aside from free agent acquisition center Lloyd Cushenberry, Skoronski is the only player locked into a starting job on their offensive line in 2024 and he’s probably a guard long-term. Even if Skoronski ends up being a tackle long-term, the Titans need a bookend for him and Alt, who is probably the top tackle prospect in this draft, is a great value here at 7.

8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

The Falcons are likely to focus on defense here, after addressing their biggest offensive needs of quarterback and wide receiver in free agency with Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney. This is a weak defensive draft at the top compared to the elite offensive prospects in this draft, but the Falcons should have their choice of defenders at 8 and this would be a good spot for the first defensive player to come off the board. Edge defender Dallas Turner is a strong option and would add to this team’s pass rush, but cornerback is a slightly bigger need in my opinion and Quinyon Mitchell is a similar caliber prospect as Turner.

9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Bears traded for Keenan Allen to give them another option at wide receiver opposite DJ Moore, but the Bears only gave up a 4th round pick in that trade and Allen is going into his age 32 season and a contract year, so that trade doesn’t preclude the Bears from taking a wide receiver at 9. Nabers would give them a needed third wide receiver in the short-term and a long-term bookend for DJ Moore. Teams normally take a complementary offensive player with their next pick after taking a first round quarterback and Nabers would be their best option, given that the Bears do have an intriguing young offensive line already.

10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackle was the Jets’ biggest need coming into this off-season, but they addressed it with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who will start on the left and right side respectively in 2024. They’ll also be in their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, so the Jets could still take a tackle of the future here and plug him in at guard in the meantime, but the Jets also signed John Simpson to a sizeable contract in free agency to be their other guard opposite Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is probably their best returning offensive lineman, so guard isn’t really a need and, on top of that, the Jets are in win now mode with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who is heading into his age 41 season, so they’ll probably use this pick in a way that best maximizes their chances of winning in 2024. With that in mind, Brock Bowers makes a lot of sense as an elite tight end prospect who can fill an immediate need and contribute in a big way right away.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Chargers’ trade down works out well as they can get a player at 11 who would have been in consideration at 5. If the Chargers stay put at 5, a wide receiver Like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers would be a strong possibility and if they stay put at 5 and take a tackle Joe Alt is more likely than Fashanu, but Fashanu would at least be in consideration and, with the other three aforementioned players off the board here at 11, this becomes an easy choice for the Chargers, who have a pressing need at right tackle that Fashanu can fill right away. The Chargers would then target a wide receiver or address one of their many defensive needs with their second pick in the first round at 23.

12. Denver Broncos – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)

The Broncos are another team that will attempt to move up for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham currently penciled in as their starter, but they don’t have the multiple 2024 first round picks the Vikings have and they might not want to trade away multiple future high draft picks after all of the high draft picks they gave away for Russell Wilson, so the most likely scenario is they stay put at 12, miss out on one of the top-4 quarterback prospects, and address the position on day 2. At 12, Dallas Turner would be a strong option because he could be argued as the best available player and would fill a need at the edge defender position for a team who ranked just 23rd on PFF in team pass rush grade in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

This pick stays the same from my pre-free agency mock draft, as cornerback was one of the Raiders’ biggest needs going into free agency and went unaddressed, with mediocre incumbent starter Amik Robertson signing with the Lions. Arnold would provide a starting caliber cornerback for a team that doesn’t really have one outside of Nate Hobbs.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Trevor Penning was the Saints’ first round pick in 2022, but he’s largely been a bust in two years in the league, making just 6 starts thus far in his career due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The Saints might give him one more shot at the left tackle job in 2024, but they at least need a good alternative at the position and Fautanu can give them that, while also giving them a starting option at guard, where James Hurst is a mediocre option in his age 33 season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

The Colts re-signed Kenny Moore in free agency and have 2023 2nd round pick JuJu Brents, but they need a third cornerback to go with them. Nate Wiggins makes sense here for a team that doesn’t have a lot of other pressing needs. He’ll probably be the third cornerback off the board behind Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, but he still has a good chance to be drafted in the teens.

16. Seattle Seahawks – OT JC Latham (Alabama)

The Seahawks’ offensive line struggled last season with both offensive tackle Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missing time with injury and their replacement options struggling in their absence. Latham would give them a better insurance policy and could also play guard for a team that needs to replace Damien Lewis, who signed with the Panthers this off-season as a free agent.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)

Jared Verse is a bit of a luxury pick for the Jaguars who don’t have any pressing needs that line up with the best players available at this point in the draft. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had double digit sack seasons at the edge defender position last year, but their depth behind them is really lacking and Verse is a great value at 17. Allen is also on the franchise tag and has yet to be signed long-term.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

Wide receiver might not seem like a big need for the Bengals, but they’re unlikely to re-sign Tyler Boyd in free agency this off-season, while the franchise tagged Tee Higgins might not be kept beyond this next season, with the Bengals’ cap situation getting tougher in the next few years with extensions for Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase due. Thomas would give them a long-term receiving option opposite Chase and it doesn’t hurt that he also went to LSU, where Burrow and Chase both did.

19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

It’s weird seeing the Rams finally picking in the first round again. Trading down and accumulating multiple picks is a strong possibility, given how good they’ve been at finding gems in the mid-rounds, but if they stay put, Laiatu Latu would make a lot of sense, as the Rams need to get better at the edge defender position. Michael Hoecht started 17 games there in 2023, but struggled playing out of position and was tendered at the lowest level as a restricted free agent this off-season, which likely means the Rams don’t view him as a long-term starter opposite 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young, one of those mid-round gems, who showed a lot of promise in year one.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Steelers used their first round pick on Broderick Jones in last year’s draft, but they need a long-term bookend for him, with incumbent starting left tackle Dan Moore being a mediocre option who now heads into the final year of his contract. The Steelers could take advantage of a strong offensive tackle class and use their first round pick on that position in back-to-back years.

21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins probably wanted to keep Christian Wilkins, but for financial reasons they couldn’t franchise tag him or match the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he got from the Raiders in free agency. They could opt to replace him in the draft and Byron Murphy would be a good fit for them with the 21st pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Darius Slay and James Bradberry were one of the best cornerback duos in the league during the Eagles run to the Super Bowl in 2022, but both took a big step back in 2023 and now they head into their age 33 and age 31 seasons respectively, so the Eagles will likely look at young cornerbacks early in the draft. DeJean can play the slot and/or safety while Slay and Bradberry remain on the roster as outside cornerbacks and DeJean the potential to be a long-term option on the outside as well.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

With the Chargers parting ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for financial reasons this off-season, wide receiver becomes a huge position of need for them. Last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston has been a bust thus far and, even if he turns it around, the Chargers still don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind him. The Chargers will consider wide receivers with the 5th pick and if they move down to accumulate more picks, expect them to use at least one of their early picks on the position.

24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Cowboys still don’t have a good #2 wide receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was brought in last off-season, but he disappointed and now heads into his age 31 contract year. On top of that, fellow wide receiver Michael Gallup was also cut this off-season, rather than being paid 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed on a contract that he signed when he was a much better player before his ACL tear. The Cowboys will likely address this position early in the draft. Mitchell would likely start as the #3 receiver behind Lamb and Cooks, but would give them a long-term complement for Lamb that they currently lack.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

It wasn’t a surprise the Packers cut David Bakhtiari, who was owed 20.9 million in his age 33 season in 2024 and had played just 13 games in the past 3 seasons due to knee problems, but the Packers also let Yosh Nijman leave in free agency and he was their primary fill-in for Bakhtiari over the past few seasons, so the Packers are pretty thin at the tackle position now. Rasheed Walker is currently penciled into the left tackle job, but he’s better off as a swing tackle. This is a position they could address in the first round of a strong offensive tackle class.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Buccaneers made the aging Shaq Barrett a cap casualty this off-season and now need help at the edge defender position. Yaya Diaby and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka are young players with some promise, but the Buccaneers could add another blue chip prospect to the mix in the first round of the draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)

Going into the off-season, the Cardinals didn’t have any starting caliber cornerbacks. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, but he’s a very underwhelming option as a de facto #1 cornerback and they don’t have much behind him on the depth chart, so expect them to address this position relatively early in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills – ED Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Veteran edge defenders Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson weren’t brought back this off-season. AJ Epenesa was re-signed and, along with Greg Rousseau, those two younger players will likely play bigger roles in 2024, but the Bills can’t count on their depth behind them, with their only real option being Von Miller, who is now going into his age 35 season and didn’t look nearly the same as usual in 2023 after another major injury. The Bills will probably add an edge defender early in the draft.

29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

The Lions had to cut starting cornerback Cameron Sutton because of off-the-field problems, leaving them with a need at the position. The Lions fortunately acquired Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers via trade and Amik Robertson as a free agent, but Robertson is a mediocre option who didn’t get a big contract and, even if he locks down a starting job, the Lions could still use another, with Brian Branch potentially moving full-time to safety in 2023 in the absence of Tracy Walker and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who both left the team this off-season.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Ravens re-signed Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce this off-season, but still could use an upgrade at the third spot on their 3-man base defensive line, with the mediocre Brent Urban penciled into that spot for what would be his age 33 season in 2024. Newton would give them that upgrade while also having the ability to play all three downs inside next to Madubuike.

31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)

The 49ers could use some young offensive line help with three of their projected five starting offensive linemen for 2024 being on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Trent Williams going into his age 36 season and center Jake Brendel and guard Jon Feliciano both going into their age 32 seasons. Graham Barton has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and would be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking scheme.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl this season, but their offense struggled by its normal standards because of issues in the receiving corps and on the offensive line. The Chiefs addressed their receiving corps in free agency with Marquise Brown and have a promising young receiver in Rashee Rice going into his second season in the league in 2024, so the tackle position is probably a bigger need for them now, with inexperienced 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris being an underwhelming option to replace veteran Donovan Smith on the blindside and highly paid right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggling mightily in his first season in Kansas City. Tyler Guyton could help right away at either spot.

2019 NFL Draft Redo

1. Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)

    A lot of teams would take Nick Bosa or one of the other elite non-quarterbacks in this draft class, but a rule I use in these redrafts is that a team will usually stick with their original pick if it’s someone they paid big money on a long-term extension and the Cardinals gave Murray a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar extension that tops any other extension received by a player in this draft class. Another rule I use is that a franchise quarterback tops anything else and, while Murray has had his injuries and his ups and downs, the Cardinals still view him as a franchise quarterback, opting to keep him despite hefty salaries and back-to-back top-4 draft picks in the past two years. 

    In total, Murray has completed 66.6% of his passes for 6.99 YPA, 94 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in 65 career starts, while rushing for 5.76 YPC and 26 touchdowns on 425 carries and finishing over 70 on PFF in three times and over 80 twice in 5 seasons in the league. The Cardinals haven’t had a ton of team success with him (28-36-1 in his starts), but he usually hasn’t been the main problem for this team in their losses.

    2. San Francisco 49ers – DE Nick Bosa (Ohio State)

      The 49ers have to be ecstatic that the Cardinals chose to stick with Kyler Murray, allowing them to keep Nick Bosa. Bosa’s 5-year, 170 million dollar extension is well behind Murray’s, but it still makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league as of this writing. The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Bosa has totaled 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, while surpassing 89 on PFF in every full season of his career. A 2020 season ended by a torn ACL after 68 snaps is the only negative on his resume, but he’s clearly overcome that and, not even 27 until October, he looks likely to remain one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

      3. New York Jets – DT Quinnen Williams (Alabama)

        Here’s another team sticking with their original pick. Quinnen Williams isn’t quite on the level of Nick Bosa, but he’s developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league and was kept by the Jets on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension. Also a good run defender, Williams has totaled 33 sacks, 44 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 75 career games, very impressive for an interior pass rusher, and he’s especially come into his own the past two seasons, surpassing 90 overall on PFF in both seasons, with 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 33 games. Not 27 until December, Williams should remain an All-Pro caliber interior defender for the next few years.

        4. Oakland Raiders – DE Maxx Crosby (Eastern Michigan)

          The Raiders whiffed badly on their original pick here, taking Clelin Ferrell, who totaled just 10 sacks in 58 games with the Raiders and had his 5th year option declined, before signing with the 49ers on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal last off-season. However, the Raiders made up for it by using a 4th round pick in this draft on Maxx Crosby, who has developed into one of the best edge defenders in the league and who was kept by the Raiders on a 4-year, 94 million dollar extension. In this redraft, the Raiders will have to take him 4th overall to keep him, but I don’t think they’ll mind, given how badly they messed up this pick originally. Crosby isn’t quite on Bosa’s level, but he’s still totaled 52 sacks, 76 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate in 83 career games, especially dominating over the past three seasons, with grades above 90 overall in all three seasons and a total of 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games.

          5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Josh Allen (Kentucky)

            The Buccaneers signed Shaq Barrett in the 2019 off-season and paired him with Jason Pierre-Paul, but Pierre-Paul was in his age 30 season and on the decline in 2019 and two years later the Buccaneers used a first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Joe Tyron-Shoyinka, who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Instead, the Buccaneers use the 5th pick in this draft to give themselves a very talented trio of edge defenders in the short-term and a dominant edge defender in the long-term, with Allen developing into one of the best players in the league at his position. 

            Allen has never been bad, but he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being selected 7th overall by Jacksonville in 2019, from 68.4 as a rookie to 89.5 in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023, setting him up for a probable franchise tag from the Jaguars this off-season and ultimately a massive contract that will likely make him among the highest paid defensive players in the league.

            6. New York Giants – DT Dexter Lawrence (Clemson)

              The Giants originally used this pick on quarterback Daniel Jones, who they re-signed on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal last off-season, but that was after they declined his 5th year option and the Giants already seem to be regretting that extension, as they are reportedly interested in quarterbacks with their 6th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, or even potentially moving up for a quarterback, despite Jones’ 36 million dollar salary for 2024 being fully guaranteed. Jones has been an effective runner, with a 5.77 YPC and 13 touchdowns on 332 career carries and the problems with the Giants passing game haven’t all been his fault, but his 85.2 QB rating is not what you’d expect out of a quarterback taken 6th overall and he’s also had a lot of injury problems, missing 23 games total and at least three games in four of five seasons in the league.

              Instead, the Giants use this pick on Dexter Lawrence, who they originally took 17th and extended on a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar extension that rightfully makes him one of the highest paid interior defenders in the league. Also a dominant run stuffer, Lawrence has totaled 21 sacks, 61 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate in 80 career games, while surpassing 75 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, especially dominating over the past two seasons, with 92.0 and 92.9 overall grades from PFF and 12 sacks, 39 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 32 games. He wouldn’t last until 17 in a redraft so the Giants have to take him here to keep him.

              7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR AJ Brown (Mississippi)

                The Jaguars lose out on their original pick Josh Allen in this redraft, as he went two picks earlier to Tampa Bay, but the Jaguars still have plenty of good players to choose from here. They could take another defensive lineman from this talented defensive line class, but this wide receiver class is almost as good and the Jaguars can address a big need by taking the first wide receiver off the board. The 2018 Jaguars were led in receiving by Dede Westbrook, who finished with just a 66/717/5 slash line and, while DJ Chark led the Jaguars with a 73/1008/8 slash line in 2019, he never came close to those numbers again.

                Brown, meanwhile, has averaged a 84/1313/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, including 88/1496/11 in 2022 and 106/1456/7 in 2023 and he’s been even better than those totals suggest, as he’s consistently played on run heavy offenses, meaning his receiving totals would likely be even higher on teams that pass the ball more often. His career 2.58 yards per route run average and 9.94 yards per target average are among the best in the league since he was drafted and he’s ranked 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, and 9th in yards per route run among wide receivers in his five seasons in the league.

                8. Detroit Lions – DE Rashan Gary (Michigan)

                  The Lions could also take a wide receiver here, with 2019 leading receiver Kenny Golladay totaling a 65/1190/11 slash line, but never coming close to those numbers again, but defense has been more of a consistent problem for the Lions in recent years than offense, so instead they focus on that side of the ball and take yet another of the talented defensive linemen in this class. The 2018 Lions didn’t have anyone with more than 7.5 sacks and tried to remedy that by giving a big contract to Trey Flowers, who took home 56 million over three seasons, but only gave the Lions 10.5 sacks in 27 games.

                  Gary took a couple years to come into his own and had his 2022 season ended by a torn ACL, but at his best he’s been as good as any of the defensive linemen taken ahead of him. Since becoming a starter in his third season in the league in 2021, Gary has totaled 24.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate in 42 games, while surpassing 80 on PFF in all three seasons, despite his major knee injury. Not even 27 until December, Gary should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come.

                  9. Buffalo Bills – WR Deebo Samuel (South Carolina)

                    The Bills original pick here was Ed Oliver, an interior defender who they extended on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal, but they can shoot a little higher here in a redraft. The Bills added to their receiving corps in a big way the year after this draft by trading for Stefon Diggs, but Deebo Samuel would give them help in the receiving corps a year earlier and would give them a good complement for Diggs, making this one of the best receiving corps in the league. Injuries have been a concern for Deebo Samuel throughout his career, costing him 17 games total, but he’s averaged a 73/1062/5 slash line per 17 games with 2.29 yards per route run and 9.61 yards per target, while also adding 6.29 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 160 career carries. He would make Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense even more dangerous.

                    10. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR DK Metcalf (Mississippi)

                      The 2018 Steelers had a pair of 1000+ yard receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Brown was traded after the season and Smith-Schuster never topped 1000 yards in a season again. The Steelers replaced Brown with Diontae Johnson in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft and he’s been a solid wide receiver for them, but they could shoot higher in the first round with DK Metcalf, who has averaged 77/1105/9 per 17 games, 8.63 yards per target, and 1.91 yards per route run in his career. Johnson, for comparison, has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                      11. Cincinnati Bengals – G Chris Lindstrom (Boston College)

                        The Bengals were right to try to upgrade their offensive line with this pick, but their original choice Jonah Williams didn’t prove to be worth this selection, missing his entire rookie season with injury, never reaching an elite level, losing his left tackle job to free agent acquisition Orlando Brown last off-season, and potentially being allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season, after a mediocre season at right tackle in 2023. Instead, the Bengals take Chris Lindstrom, who has developed into one of the best guards in the league. Originally taken 14th by the Falcons, Lindstrom took a couple years to develop into the player he is now, but still had PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league and he’s received grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6 over the past three seasons. He would be a big help for a Bengals team that has consistently had offensive line problems in recent years.

                        12. Green Bay Packers – DT Jeffery Simmons (Mississippi State)

                          The Packers miss out on their original pick Rashan Gary, who was selected a few picks earlier by the Lions, but they can still get a great defensive lineman at this point in the draft. Simmons is an interior defender, unlike Gary who was an edge player, but interior defender was arguably a bigger need at that point, as Gary sat behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith for most of his first two seasons in the league, while Simmons could have quickly beaten out Dean Lowry for a starting role on the interior. 

                          Simmons fell to the Titans at 19 originally, but that was because he tore his ACL in the pre-draft process. He was limited to 315 snaps in 9 games as a rookie because of his injury, but flashed his potential immediately with a 70.4 PFF grade in that limited action and has since developed into one of the better interior defenders in the league, while staying mostly healthy. In 68 career games, he has 26.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate while playing high level run defense, leading to four seasons over 70 overall and two seasons over 80 overall on PFF.

                          13. Miami Dolphins – DE Brian Burns (Florida State)

                            I thought about giving the Dolphins their original pick Christian Wilkins, who has developed into an above average interior defender, but the Dolphins are reportedly not going to franchise tag him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and ultimately they can aim a little higher in a redo. The 2019 Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the league and needed help at almost every position and Burns is probably the best player remaining on the board. 

                            Run defense has been a weakness for Burns, which drops him out of the top-10, but he’s been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league over the past five seasons, totaling 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 career games. The team that originally drafted him 16th, the Carolina Panthers, is expected to franchise tag and extend him this off-season on a contract that makes him one of the highest paid edge defenders in the league, unlike the Dolphins with Wilkins.

                            14. Atlanta Falcons – DE Montez Sweat (Mississippi State)

                              It feels like I give the Falcons an edge defender in these redrafts every year, but it has been one of their biggest needs as long as I can remember. The Falcons had 42 sacks in 2023, but that was their first season of at least 40 sacks since all the way back in 2004. Fortunately, there are still good defensive linemen on the board in one of the best defensive line drafts in history. Montez Sweat, originally the 26th overall pick by Washington, is a better run defender than pass rusher, but also has 34.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 60 games over the past four seasons.

                              15. Washington Redskins – WR Terry McLaurin (Ohio State)

                                Washington’s original pick here, quarterback Dwayne Haskins (RIP), did not pan out, struggling in 13 starts in just two seasons with the team, before being released. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin was originally a third round pick by Washington in this draft, but he turned out to be the far better player and would need to be taken in the first round in a redraft if Washington wants to keep him, which they likely would, given that they extended him on a 3-year, 68.364 million dollar deal. He’s not the top level receiver some players in this draft are, but he’s still surpassed 1000 yards receiving in four straight seasons, despite poor quarterback play, and he’s averaged a 80/1123/5 slash line per 17 games in his career, with an average of 1.85 yards per route run and 8.67 yards per target. 

                                16. Carolina Panthers – TE TJ Hockenson (Iowa)

                                  TJ Hockenson was originally the 8th overall pick by the Lions in this draft. He hasn’t quite played well enough to justify going that high again, but he’s still developed into one of the better tight ends in the league. He took a few years to reach that level, putting up slash lines of 32/367/2, 67/723/6, and 61/583/4 in his first three seasons in the league, but that has increased to 86/914/6 in 2022 and 95/960/5 in 2023. 

                                  Hockenson’s 2023 season ended with a torn ACL that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and has a good chance to ultimately bounce back to form and continue being one of the top tight ends in the league. The Panthers still had Greg Olsen in the 2019 off-season, but 2019 was his age 34 season and his final season in Carolina. Aside from Olsen in 2019, the Panthers haven’t had a tight end surpass even 200 yards receiving in a season at all in the past five seasons, so they could use someone like Hockenson.

                                  17. New York Giants – QB Daniel Jones (Duke)

                                    The Giants passed on Daniel Jones with the original pick they used on him, 6th overall, in order to ensure they could keep their stud interior defender Dexter Lawrence, but they still liked Jones enough to give him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension last off-season and using the 17th overall pick on him would be much more justifiable than taking him at his original spot. The Giants still come out of this draft with Lawrence and Jones in the first round, just in an opposite order.

                                    18. Minnesota Vikings – DT Ed Oliver (Houston)

                                      Interior defender was a big position of weakness for the Vikings in 2019, as their only above average player at the position was Linval Joseph, who was in his age 31 season and his final season with the Vikings. Ed Oliver was originally the 9th overall pick in this draft and, while his run defense has been a liability and he probably wouldn’t be a top-10 pick again as a result, he’s still developed into one of the better interior pass rushers in the league. In five seasons in the league, he has totaled 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 career games, with his best season coming in 2023, when he had 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate.

                                      19. Tennessee Titans – DT Christian Wilkins (Clemson)

                                        The Titans miss out on Jeffery Simmons in this redraft, but Christian Wilkins is not a bad consolation prize. He’s a better run defender than pass rusher, but he also has 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games and he’s exceeded a 70 overall grade on PFF in three straight seasons. The team that originally drafted him, the Miami Dolphins, are likely to let him hit the open market as a free agent this off-season, but he figures to be in high demand and should be well-paid on a long-term contract.

                                        20. Denver Broncos – OT Kaleb McGary (Washington)

                                          McGary once looked like a bust as the 31st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, getting benched in his 2nd season in the league and having his 5th year option declined after his 3rd season in the league, but over the past two seasons he’s been one of the best run blocking tackles in the league, with PFF run blocking grades of 91.6 and 76.5 respectively. After his 4th season in the league, the Falcons reversed course with the player whose option they declined the year prior, keeping him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal and that deal proved to be a good value after McGary had another strong season again in 2023. 

                                          The amount of time it took McGary to develop and the fact that he has still only been a slightly above average pass protector over the past two seasons (pass blocking grades of 66.9 and 69.5 in 2022 and 2023 respectively) hurt him in this redraft, but this was an especially weak offensive tackle class, so by default McGary has been the best of the bunch. He would fill a big need for the Broncos, who were starting Elijah Wilkinson at right tackle in 2019 and have had issues at that position throughout the past five seasons. 

                                          21. Green Bay Packers – G Elgton Jenkins (Mississippi State)

                                            Elgton Jenkins was originally a second round pick by the Packers, but he has proved to be better than the player the Packers originally took here at 21, safety Darnell Savage, developing into an above average starting guard who can also play both tackle and center if needed (50 career starts at guard, 5 at center, and 13 at tackle). The Packers locked him up long-term on a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension before his 4th season in the league and would probably rather have him than Savage, who has been inconsistent in his career and is being allowed to hit the open market as a free agent this off-season.

                                            22. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

                                              The Eagles have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith now, but there was a time when their wide receiver group was among the worst in the league, with Alshon Jeffery (43/490/4) and Travis Fulgham (38/539/4) leading the group in receiving in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Marquise Brown would have been a big upgrade over both players in the short-term and in the long-term he could have returned the Eagles a first round pick via trade to the Cardinals, as he did for the Ravens, who selected him 25th overall in 2019 and got pick 23rd back for him in 2021. 

                                              Brown hasn’t quite been as good as some of the elite wide receivers in this draft, but he surpassed 1000 yards receiving in his final season in Baltimore in 2021 and has a 74/860/7 slash line per 17 games in his career, with averages of 1.55 yards per route run and 6.94 yards per target, despite being on mediocre passing offenses for most of his career. The Cardinals have yet to re-sign him long-term, but he figures to get a sizable payday from someone this off-season, ahead of his age 27 season in 2024.

                                              23. Houston Texans – CB Jamel Dean (Auburn)

                                                Tytus Howard, the Texans’ original pick here, has had his moments, but has been inconsistent and injury prone throughout his career, so the Texans can aim a little higher here. Cornerback was a big need for them during the 2019 off-season and the player they drafted in the second round to address that need, Lonnie Johnson, proved to be a bust, which led to cornerback being a big weakness for the Texans in 2019 and in subsequent seasons. Dean, on the other hand, has received a grade of 74 or higher from PFF in four of five seasons in the league and was re-signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who originally drafted him in the third round, on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal.

                                                24. Oakland Raiders – RB Josh Jacobs (Alabama)

                                                  Running backs rarely go in the first round anymore and even more rarely do they prove to be worth their first round selection, but Jacobs, who was the Raiders’ original pick here, is an exception, as he’s accumulated 6,993 yards from scrimmage and 46 touchdowns as the Raiders’ workhorse running back over the past five seasons, including a 2022 season in which he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards, while also scoring 12 times on 340 carries and adding a 53/400/0 slash line through the air. Jacobs was franchise tagged after that 2022 season and, while he wasn’t re-signed long-term and it now seems unlikely he’ll be kept long-term off-season, that has more to do with running backs not aging well into their late 20s than anything Jacobs has done wrong and I don’t think the Raiders would change anything about drafting Jacobs and having him for the past five seasons.

                                                  25. Baltimore Ravens – WR Diontae Johnson (Toledo)

                                                    The Ravens had a desperate need for wide receiver help during the 2019 off-season. Marquise Brown, their original pick here, led Ravens wide receivers in yardage in 2019 and no one else had better than a 31/339/5 slash line at the wide receiver position. With Brown going off the board a few picks earlier, the Ravens will have to draft a different wide receiver, but Johnson isn’t much of a drop off. In five seasons in the league, the Steelers third round pick has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                                                    26. Washington Redskins – MLB Dre Greenlaw (Arkansas)

                                                      Washington misses out on their original pick Montez Sweat here, but Dre Greenlaw isn’t a bad consolation prize, as inside linebacker was a big position of need for them during the 2019 off-season. Washington eventually addressed the position in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft with Jamin Davis, but he has largely been a bust through three seasons in the league and taking Greenlaw here would have allowed them to avoid that mistake. Greenlaw plays outside for the 49ers in their 4-3 defense, but would fit well inside in Washington’s 3-4. He’s not a spectacular player, but has been an above average starter for the 49ers for most of his career since being a 5th round pick of theirs, leading to him being extended on a 2-year, 16.4 million dollar deal last off-season. 

                                                      27. Oakland Raiders – MLB TJ Edwards (Wisconsin)

                                                        Safety Johnathan Abram was a bust as the Raiders’ original pick. There isn’t another good safety available here for the Raiders to replace him with, but the Raiders had problems all over their defense in the 2019 off-season, so they can just take the best available defensive player left on the board. TJ Edwards originally went undrafted, but he has developed into one of the better inside linebackers in the league. 

                                                        A reserve as a rookie with the Eagles, Edwards flashed his potential early on with a 86.6 PFF grade on 112 snaps as a rookie and then continued to show that potential with a 66.5 grade on 492 snaps in 2020 and a 76.3 grade on 684 snaps in 2021, before becoming an every down player over the past two seasons and recording PFF grades of 84.8 and 79.6 on snap counts of 1,040 and 1,042 respectively. He only received a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal from the Bears in free agency last off-season after leaving Philadelphia, but that deal looks like a steal after he repeated his strong 2022 season again in 2023. If he played a more valuable position and didn’t take as long to develop into an every down player, he would have gone much higher than this in a redraft and he’d have more opportunity to play early on with the Raiders.

                                                        28. Los Angeles Chargers – C Erik McCoy (Texas A&M)

                                                          Offensive line has been a problem for the Chargers for years. They had veteran Mike Pouncey at center in 2019, but he was limited to five games by injury that season and then retired the following off-season. The Chargers gave a big contract to Corey Linsley during the 2021 off-season to try to fix the center position, but the aging veteran was limited to 33 games in 3 seasons with the Chargers by health problems. Erik McCoy would have been a younger, more long-term solution at the position. He’s made 74 starts in five seasons in the league with the Saints, who drafted him in the 2nd round and extended him on a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal, and he’s surpassed 70 on PFF in three of those five seasons. He also has the ability to move to guard in a pinch if needed, which would be valuable for a Chargers team that has also had issues at that position in recent years.

                                                          29. Seattle Seahawks – OT Jonah Williams (Alabama)

                                                            Williams never justified being the 11th overall pick by the Bengals in this draft, but in a historically weak tackle class, he still has a good chance to go in the first round. After missing his whole rookie season with injury, Williams actually had PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in his second and third seasons in the league, before slipping to 61.2 in 2022, losing his left tackle job, and then falling further to 58.5 on the right side in 2023. Still, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of market he has in free agency this off-season, as some team could still give him at least 10 million a year to bet on his bounce back potential, only going into his age 27 season. The Seahawks had significant right tackle problems in 2019 and could have used Williams as a bookend to aging veteran left tackle Duane Brown.

                                                            30. New York Giants – MLB Bobby Okereke (Stanford)

                                                              Inside linebacker was a position of need for the Giants in 2019 and remained one for years. They eventually addressed it in a big way by signing Bobby Okereke to a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season and he was one of the better players in the league at his position in his first season with the team with a 78.9 PFF grade on 1,128 snaps, but in this scenario they get Okereke sooner. While 2023 was the best season of Okereke’s career, he also had a 73.3 grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and has mostly been an average or better player throughout his career, since being drafted in the third round by the Colts in 2019. He took time to develop into the player he is now, but he still has a good chance to go in the first round in a redraft when all is said and done.

                                                              31. Atlanta Falcons – RB Tony Pollard (Memphis)

                                                                Running backs rarely pan out as first round picks, but Pollard to the Falcons at the end of the first round is justifiable. The 2019 Falcons were led in rushing by a washed up Devonta Freeman, who averaged just 3.57 YPC on 184 carries, while an equally washed up Todd Gurley averaged just 3.48 YPC on 195 carries to lead the Falcons in 2020. Pollard, meanwhile, has averaged 4.75 YPC with 23 touchdowns on 762 career carries, while adding 1,318 yards and 5 touchdowns on 176 catches in five seasons in the league. 

                                                                Pollard was mostly a backup his first four seasons in the league with the Cowboys, who took him in the 4th round, but he still surpassed 1000 yards on just 193 carries with a 5.22 YPC average in his 4th season in the league in 2022, leading to a franchise tag from the Cowboys the following off-season. Pollard wasn’t as efficient in his first full season as a starter in 2023, with a 3.99 YPC average, but he still had 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns on 252 carries, despite not being 100% for most of the season, recovering from a broken leg suffered in the previous post-season. Another year removed from that injury, Pollard could easily bounce back and prove he can be an efficient back even in a larger workload. Had he gone to a team like the Falcons instead of the Cowboys, he could have proven that earlier in his career, rather than sitting behind Ezekiel Elliott for most of it.

                                                                32. New England Patriots – WR Jakobi Meyers (NC State)

                                                                  The Patriots badly needed wide receiver help in the 2019 off-season, but their original pick of N’Keal Harry turned out to be a complete bust. Fortunately, they were able to at least find Jakobi Meyers as an undrafted free agent. He never developed into a true #1 receiver, but he was by default their leading receiver in 2020, 2021, and 2022, before signing with the Raiders on a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s averaged 1.71 yards per route run and 7.92 yards per target for his career and has a 78/893/4 slash line per 17 games over the past four seasons. Without a better wide receiver option available at this stage of the draft, I don’t think the Patriots would let Meyers get away from them.

                                                                  Super Bowl LVIII Pick

                                                                  San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) in Super Bowl LVIII

                                                                  The 49ers were by far the better of these two teams in the regular season, finishing the year with a +1.64 yards per play differential, a +6.50% first down rate differential, and a +39.4% DVOA, as opposed to +0.82, +3.55%, and +17.9% for the Chiefs. These two teams have been more even in the post-season, with the Chiefs having a -0.31 yards per play differential and a +2.87% first down rate differential, as opposed to +0.15 and -2.47% for the 49ers, but the 49ers are only slight favorites in this Super Bowl matchup, favored by 2.5 points, and the 49ers big advantage in their regular season numbers suggests they should be favored by more than that, even with both teams being more even in the post-season. The 49ers also have a 4.5-point edge in my roster rankings.

                                                                  However, Patrick Mahomes has been close to an automatic bet as an underdog in his career, with a 10-1 ATS record and a 9-2 straight up record. I ignored this because it was still a small sample size and took the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs in the Chiefs’ last two games, but it’s becoming apparent that Mahomes should be picked against the spread every time he’s an underdog unless there’s a good reason not to, much like the quarterback he’s often compared against Tom Brady, who went 36-17 ATS and 31-22 straight up in his career as an underdog.

                                                                  The Chiefs also have the experience edge in this game, with head coach Andy Reid having been to four previous Super Bowls as a head coach and Patrick Mahomes having been to three, as opposed to one Super Bowl appearance as a head coach for 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and none for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of that, Andy Reid has been a strong bet in his career as a head coach when given an extra week to gameplan, going 36-24 ATS against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t worth a big bet unless we can get a full field goal against the spread with them, but at the very least the money line seems like a good value at +115.

                                                                  Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +115

                                                                  Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

                                                                  Confidence: Low

                                                                  2023 Week 18 NFL Picks

                                                                  Pick of the Week

                                                                  MIA 28 (+3) BUF 26 Upset Pick +130

                                                                  High Confidence Picks

                                                                  None

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks

                                                                  SEA 26 (-2.5) ARZ 21

                                                                  DAL 30 WAS 20 (+13.5)

                                                                  TB 16 CAR 14 (+4.5)

                                                                  JAX 24 TEN 23 (+4)

                                                                  DET 27 (-3) MIN 20

                                                                  NE 17 (-1.5) NYJ 13

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks

                                                                  GB 24 CHI 23 (+3)

                                                                  PHI 23 (-5.5) NYG 17

                                                                  No Confidence Picks

                                                                  LV 23 (-3) DEN 20

                                                                  NO 20 ATL 17 (+3)

                                                                  HOU 24 IND 23 (+1.5)

                                                                  PIT 20 BAL 17 (+3)

                                                                  CIN 20 CLE 13 (+7.5)

                                                                  SF 20 (-4) LAR 16

                                                                  LAC 23 KC 20 (+3.5)

                                                                  NFL Pick Results

                                                                  2023

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)

                                                                  2022

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)

                                                                  2021

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)

                                                                  2020

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)

                                                                  2019

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)

                                                                  2018

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)

                                                                  2017

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

                                                                  2016

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)

                                                                  2015

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)

                                                                  2014

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

                                                                  2013

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)

                                                                  All-Time (Since 2013)

                                                                  Total Against the Spread: 1542-1370-80 (52.95%)

                                                                  Pick of the Week: 108-72-10 (60.00%)

                                                                  High Confidence Picks: 182-128-13 (58.71%)

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks: 431-349-13 (55.26%)

                                                                  Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 721-549-36 (56.77%)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks: 445-441-17 (50.23%)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks: 376-380-27 (49.74%)

                                                                  Moneyline Upset Picks: 230-253-1 (47.62%)

                                                                  2023 Week 17 NFL Picks

                                                                  Pick of the Week

                                                                  KC 27 (-6.5) CIN 17

                                                                  High Confidence Picks

                                                                  None

                                                                  Medium Confidence Picks

                                                                  CLE 17 (-7) NYJ 6

                                                                  BUF 23 NE 13 (+14)

                                                                  JAX 16 CAR 14 (+4)

                                                                  NO 17 (+2.5) TB 16 Upset Pick +120

                                                                  CHI 17 ATL 16 (+3)

                                                                  Low Confidence Picks

                                                                  PHI 26 (-11.5) ARZ 13

                                                                  SEA 24 (-3.5) PIT 19

                                                                  DEN 19 LAC 17 (+3.5)

                                                                  MIN 27 (-1) GB 24

                                                                  BAL 28 MIA 26 (+3.5)

                                                                  No Confidence Picks

                                                                  SF 31 (-13.5) WAS 17

                                                                  LAR 25 NYG 20 (+6)

                                                                  IND 23 LV 20 (+3.5)

                                                                  HOU 27 TEN 23 (+4.5)

                                                                  DAL 27 DET 23 (+5)