2026 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 3/4/26

This mock draft factors in predictions from my list of top-30 unrestricted free agents.

1. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

It seems likely that the intrigue in this draft won’t start until the second pick, as the Raiders need a quarterback and Fernando Mendoza is by far the best quarterback available. 

2. New York Jets – DE Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

The Jets might have hinted at their intentions with this pick by trading Jermaine Johnson instead of extending him ahead of the final year of his contract, freeing up a spot for a premium edge rusher. The Jets have several good options here, but Arvell Reese has the highest upside of their options.

3. Arizona Cardinals – S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker have been a solid starting safety duo for years, but Thompson is a free agent this off-season and Baker is a free agent next off-season, so the Cardinals could be looking towards the future at the position. If Thompson isn’t re-signed and another comparable safety isn’t signed to replace him, Downs would make a lot of sense for them. This is early for a safety, but this is an underwhelming draft at the top and Downs is one of the best safety prospects in recent memory, so he could be viewed as the best available player. 

4. Tennessee Titans – RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

There are a lot of rumors that the Titans are interested in Jeremiyah Love at 4. Drafting him would probably require the Titans addressing needs at edge defender and wide receiver in free agency, but they have the cap space to make big additions at both positions. Love would be a significant upgrade over Tony Pollard, whose release would save them 7.25 million ahead of the final year of his contract in 2026.

5. New York Giants – WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

Wan’Dale Robinson sounds unlikely to return to the Giants, which would leave the Giants very thin at wide receiver behind Malik Nabers, who is coming off of a major knee injury that has him questionable for the start of the 2026 season. With other needs in free agency and wide receiver salaries increasing at a high rate, the Giants could focus their cap space on cheaper positions in free agency and target the draft’s top wide receiver Carnell Tate at 5. 

6. Cleveland Browns – OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

The Browns had arguably the worst offensive tackle room in the league last season. They traded for Tytus Howard, presumably to start at right tackle, and Mauigoa can start opposite him at left tackle.

7. Washington Commanders – DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

Von Miller led the Commanders in sacks last season and he is a situational pass rusher at this stage of his career and, ahead of his age 37 season in 2026, he is a free agent and a candidate to retire. The Commanders need to find a young replacement and will likely have at least one of the top-3 edge rushers in this draft available to them at 7.

8. New Orleans Saints – WR Makai Lemon (USC)

The Saints were left pretty thin at wide receiver this season after trading Rashid Shaheed. They need to find a long-term 2nd option opposite the injury prone Chris Olave.

9. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Rueben Bain (Miami)

The Chiefs need an upgrade at edge defender opposite George Karlaftis. They can take advantage of a rare high draft pick to add a blue chip edge defender prospect.

10. Cincinnati Bengals – LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

The Bengals had arguably the worst linebacker room in the league last season. Styles is a rare off ball linebacker prospect who could go in the top-10. He could play every down at a Pro Bowl level as a rookie and would be a huge upgrade immediately.

11. Miami Dolphins – OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

With Tyreek Hill being released, the Dolphins have nothing at wide receiver behind Jaylen Waddle and, with a tough cap situation, they are unlikely to be able to add a useful wide receiver in free agency. If Makai Lemon is still available to them at 11, he would make a lot of sense for the Dolphins.

12. Dallas Cowboys – CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

The Cowboys have numerous pressing needs on defense and, if they don’t add a premium cornerback in free agency, the Cowboys could address the position early in the draft if the right player is available. Delane would make sense at 12 if he is still available.

13. Los Angeles Rams – QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

When the Rams traded their first round pick last season to get the Falcons’ first round pick this year, it was probably because they wanted to get a pick high enough to draft a quarterback of the future without having to have a bad season. This year’s quarterback class didn’t end up being as good as expected, but rumors are that the Rams like Ty Simpson, so they could take him here to secure a long-term option at the quarterback position.

14. Baltimore Ravens – G Vega Ioane (Penn State)

Daniel Faalele was underwhelming at right guard last season and is unlikely to be brought back as a free agent this off-season. If the Ravens don’t add an upgrade in free agency, they could target the draft’s best guard prospect at 14. Ioane would make a big impact on the Ravens’ run-heavy offense right away.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

The Buccaneers have a deep wide receiver room when healthy, but could use an upgrade at tight end, where Cade Otton had just a 59/572/1 slash line in 2025, despite all of the Buccaneers wide receiver injuries. With Otton set to hit free agency this off-season, the Buccaneers could use this opportunity to upgrade. Sadiq looks like the undisputed top tight end prospect in this draft and could be a top-15 pick.

16. New York Jets – CB Aveion Terrell (Clemson)

The Jets got this pick from the Colts for Sauce Gardner and trading Gardner put them in a tough situation at cornerback, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them use this pick on a replacement at cornerback. 

17. Detroit Lions – DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

Al-Quadin Muhammad had 11 sacks this season out of nowhere, after totaling just 10 sacks in his previous 4 seasons combined, but he is not a guarantee to do that again and he’s also a free agent going into his age 31 season, so the Lions have a need at the edge defender position.

18. Minnesota Vikings – DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

The Vikings are expected to release Javon Hargrave if they can’t trade him, which would leave them with a need at the defensive tackle position. Woods would fill that need if still available at 18.

19. Carolina Panthers – S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

Tre’von Moehrig was a great free agent addition last off-season, but Nick Scott was underwhelming as the starting safety opposite him and they could look for a higher upside replacement in the draft, with Scott set to hit free agency this off-season.

20. Dallas Cowboys – DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

The Cowboys got surprisingly decent edge defender play this season after trading Micah Parsons, but four of their top-5 edge defenders this season are set to hit free agency. They should take this opportunity to find a better long-term solution opposite promising rookie Donovan Ezeiruaku.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

Five of the Steelers’ top-7 in receiving yards last season were either running backs or tight ends. With a new offensive coaching staff coming in, the Steelers will likely put more of an emphasis on the wide receiver position and they need an infusion of talent at the position to do that. Concepcion could instantly be the #2 wide receiver opposite DK Metcalf.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)

It will be interesting to see where Jermod McCoy gets drafted because he has top-10 talent, but is coming off of a torn ACL that wiped out his entire 2025 season. The Chargers could take him at 22 because he has a higher upside than any cornerback on their roster.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)

Lane Johnson is going into his age 36 season and this could be his final season. The Eagles could look to the draft for his long-term replacement.

24. Cleveland Browns – WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)

The Browns addressed their dire need at left tackle with their early first round pick, but they have an equally big need at wide receiver. They should address this position with their late first round pick if they are unable to take one with their early first round pick.

25. Chicago Bears – DE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)

The Bears edge rusher room is pretty thin after Montez Sweat. No one else had more than 4.5 sacks in 2025. They need to add more edge rush help.

26. Buffalo Bills – WR Denzel Boston (Washington)

The Bills were using the washed up Brandin Cooks as their second receiver in the playoffs and that is a big part of the reason why they were unable to advance past the second round. The Bills will likely look to find an upgrade this off-season.

27. San Francisco 49ers – OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

There is talk that the 49ers could move on from Trent Williams for salary reasons and, even if they don’t, they have to be thinking about the future of the left tackle position, with Williams going into his age 38 season. Lomu could be their long-term left tackle of the future and, if Williams returns, he could also fill a hole at guard for the time being.

28. Houston Texans – DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)

Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle proved to be a solid interior defender duo last season, but both are free agents this off-season, so the Texans will likely need to find help early in the draft.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)

The Chiefs received this pick by trading Trent McDuffie, rather than extending him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. That move leaves them thin at cornerback, so they could be thinking of McDuffie’s replacement with the pick.

30. Denver Broncos – DT Caleb Banks (Florida)

The Broncos seem unlikely to re-sign John Franklin-Myers in free agency, which would be a big loss for their defense and leave them in need of another defensive tackle. This could be a position they target early in the draft.

31. New England Patriots – DE TJ Parker (Clemson)

The Patriots made the Super Bowl, but they had a below average 35 sacks this season, despite playing with a lot of leads and facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They figure to look for edge rush help early in the draft.

32. Seattle Seahawks – CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)

The Seahawks don’t have a lot of needs, but Tariq Woolen is a free agent this off-season and has never been a good fit for Mike Macdonald’s scheme, so they could let him walk and replace him through the draft.

33. New York Jets – S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

Caleb Downs will be in consideration for the Jets at #2 overall and, if the Jets don’t take him, they will likely try to add a starting caliber safety with one of their two second round picks.

34. Arizona Cardinals – OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

Right tackle is the Cardinals’ biggest need, but the third overall pick is a little high to select a right tackle. Instead, they can target one in the second round.

35. Tennessee Titans – G Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)

Kevin Zeitler played well at right guard last season, but he’s a free agent who is going into his age 36, so the Titans need a long-term starter at the position.

36. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)

The Raiders need to add wide receiver help for their new quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Omar Cooper is arguably the best available wide receiver at this point in the draft and he happens to be Mendoza’s top target from Indiana.

37. New York Giants – DT Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)

Defensive tackle is the Giants’ biggest need, but there isn’t one worth taking at 5. Instead, they can target defensive tackle help in the second round.

38. Houston Texans – OT Blake Miller (Clemson)

The Texans traded away Tytus Howard in a cost savings move, but now they need a new right tackle. They could address this need in the second round.

39. Cleveland Browns – LB Anthony Hill (Texas)

The Browns probably won’t retain free agent linebacker Devin Bush in free agency because they don’t have a lot of cap space and have other more pressing needs. They could target his replacement in the second round of the draft.

40. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)

The Chiefs released Jawaan Taylor, who was a massive disappointment. Jaylon Moore is currently penciled in as the starting right tackle and he wouldn’t be a bad option, but he’s also a career reserve with 18 starts in five seasons in the league and he is in the final year of his contract, so he is probably not the long-term solution.

41. Cincinnati Bengals – DE Zion Young (Missouri)

The Bengals basically need help at every defensive position. The Bengals used their first round pick on Shemar Stewart last year, but he was a disaster as a rookie. Even if he is better going forward, the Bengals will be thin at the position, with their two best edge defenders, Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai, set to hit free agency this off-season.

42. New Orleans Saints – DE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)

It’s possible Cameron Jordan’s long tenure with the Saints is over, as he is a free agent heading into his age 37 season this off-season. Even if he is brought back, he is not a long-term solution, so the Saints will need another rotational edge defender either way.

43. Miami Dolphins – WR Chris Brazzell (Tennessee)

The release of Tyreek Hill left the Dolphins with next to nothing at the wide receiver position other than Jaylen Waddle. Even as a rookie, Brazzell could be the Dolphins’ #2 wide receiver.

44. New York Jets – LB CJ Allen (Georgia)

Quincy Williams is a free agent and he is going into his age 30 season and coming off of a bad season in 2025. The Jets could look to replace him and upgrade on him early in the draft.

45. Baltimore Ravens – DE Derrick Moore (Michigan)

The Ravens had the third fewest sacks in the league last season with 30 and no one had more than 5 sacks. The Ravens should look for upgrades on the edge in free agency and the draft.

46. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – LB Jake Golday (Cincinnati)

Lavonte David is a free agent and, without him, the Buccaneers have one of the worst linebacker rooms in the league. Even if he is brought back, he is going into his age 36 season, so the Buccaneers need to find a long-term replacement.

47. Indianapolis Colts – DT Christen Miller (Georgia)

DeForest Bucker and Grover Stewart are going into their age 32 and age 33 seasons respectively and the only other defensive tackle currently under contract for 2026 is Adetomiwa Adebawore, who is an underwhelming option who is going into a contract year, so the Colts need to add a young defensive tackle at some point.

48. Atlanta Falcons – WR Chris Bell (Louisville)

The Falcons lack of wide receiver depth behind Drake London was a problem last season. Darnell Mooney has some bounce back potential, but, even if he does bounce back, he’s going into a contract year and the Falcons would still need a better third receiver behind London and Mooney.

49. Minnesota Vikings – RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame)

The Vikings are releasing the aging Aaron Jones in a cost saving move, but they will need to find another running back to pair with Jordan Mason.

50. Detroit Lions – CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)

DJ Reed, who the Lions signed to a big deal in free agency last off-season, is locked in as one of the Lions’ starting cornerbacks, but 2024 1st round pick Terrion Arnold has been injury prone and underwhelming thus far in his career, while Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin are underwhelming options who are free agents this off-season. The Lions could add another cornerback through the draft.

51. Carolina Panthers – TE Max Klare (Ohio State)

The Panthers somehow haven’t had a tight end with over 400 receiving yards since Greg Olsen in 2016. They could look for one early in the draft to give Bryce Young a much needed weapon over the middle.

52. Green Bay Packers – LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)

The Packers have several key free agents and because of the Micah Parsons trade, they don’t have a lot of cap space to retain them all or a first round pick to use on a replacement. Linebacker Quay Walker has been up and down in his career and the Packers could let him walk in favor of more important free agents and find his replacement in the second round of the draft.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers – G Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M)

If the Steelers don’t retain Isaac Seumalo as a free agent, they could look to replace him in the draft.

54. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Keith Abney (Arizona State)

Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are arguably the best cornerback duo in the league, but the Eagles need an upgrade at the third cornerback spot and could address the position early in the draft.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – G Connor Lew (Auburn)

The Chargers’ offensive line will be better next season when Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return from injury, but they still have a massive need at guard that they could address early in the draft.

56. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Gabe Jacas (Illinois)

The Jaguars really lack depth on the edge behind Josh Allen and Travon Walker, the latter of whom is going into a contract year. They could address this need early in the draft.

57. Chicago Bears – S AJ Haulcy (LSU)

Both of the Bears’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season, so it is likely the Bears will need to look to the draft for at least one new starting safety.

58. San Francisco 49ers – WR Malachi Fields (Notre Dame)

Brandon Aiyuk seems like he is done in San Francisco. Ricky Pearsall was a first round pick two years ago, but he has not panned out thus far. Jauan Jennings was their best wide receiver last season, but he is a free agent this off-season. Even if he returns, the 49ers will need help at the position, especially given that they will likely feature wide receivers more in their offense next season, with tight end George Kittle coming off of a torn achilles.

59. Houston Texans – LB Josiah Trotter (Missouri)

The Texans have a pair of reserve linebackers set to hit free agency this off-season and need someone to compete with Henry To’oTo’o, who is an underwhelming starting option.

60. Buffalo Bills – DE LT Overton (Alabama)

Joey Bosa was a good 1-year signing last off-season, but he is a free agent this off-season and might not return to Buffalo. Even if he does, he is going into his age 31 season with an extensive injury history.

61. Los Angeles Rams – WR Zachariah Branch (Georgia)

Davante Adams had a great season in 2025, but he’s going into his age 34 season and a contract year in 2026.

62. Denver Broncos – TE Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt)

The Broncos made a big financial investment in Evan Engram last off-season to try to improve their tight end room, but he showed his age, finishing with just a 50/461/1 slash line and, now going into his age 32 season, he’s unlikely to return to his prime form. The Broncos could look to the draft for a younger option.

63. New England Patriots – OT Gennings Dunker (Iowa)

The Patriots’ Super Bowl performance made it obvious they still need to build their offensive line. Right tackle Morgan Moses is going into his age 35 season and left guard Jared Wilson would probably be better at center long-term. Dunker is probably a right tackle at the next level, but he could also move to guard.

64. Seattle Seahawks – WR Elijah Surratt (Indiana)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is obviously one of the best wide receivers in the league, but Cooper Kupp is going into his age 33 season, Rashid Shaheed is a free agent, and 2025 5th round pick Tory Horton is injury prone and not guaranteed to develop into a starting caliber receiver. The Seahawks could add another young receiver to the mix in the draft.

2026 Top-30 Unrestricted Free Agents

stevenlourie Uncategorized

1. LB Devin Lloyd

A first round pick in 2022, Lloyd has developed into one of the best all-around off ball linebackers in the league. The franchise tag value for linebackers includes rush linebackers and, as a result, is cost prohibitive for off ball linebackers (around 26.9 million), but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lloyd surpass Fred Warner’s 21 million annually and become the highest paid off ball linebacker in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

2. RB Kenneth Walker

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He has been held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season this year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP, so he figures to get paid heavily by a team that envisions him as a true feature back. The Seahawks could have franchise tagged him for about 14.3 million, but probably don’t value him as much as other running back needy teams will.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 30 million guaranteed with Kansas City Chiefs

3. WR Alec Pierce

A workout wonder in the pre-draft process, Pierce entered the league as a raw prospect, but has improved in every season in the league, culminating in his first 1000+ yard season in 2025. Capable of drawing double teams deep and still making plays, Pierce has averaged over 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons and has still managed a 54.9% catch rate, despite inconsistent quarterback play and his high average depth of target. Only going into his age 26 season, Pierce’s best years may still be ahead of him and he figures to get paid heavily by someone who bets on continued development.

Prediction: 4 years, 110 million, 60 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

4. DE Trey Hendrickson

Based on his 2025 salary, Hendrickson would have made 30.2 million on the franchise tag this year, making him the 8th highest paid edge defender in terms of annual salary, which the Bengals saw as cost prohibitive. Hendrickson would be worth that kind of contract if he was still in his prime, but he heads into his age 32 season in 2026. Hendrickson hasn’t really showed signs of slowing down yet and is one of the most productive edge rushers in the league over the past several seasons, totaling the 3rd most sacks in the league since 2020 at 74.5, while adding 79 quarterback hits and a 15.7% pressure rate in 88 games over that stretch, but his age is a complicating factor when determining long-term guarantees. It’s also worth noting that he leaves something to be desired as a run defender and that he missed 10 games with injury last season.

Prediction: 3 years, 84 million, 40 million guaranteed with Baltimore Ravens

5. CB Eric Stokes

A first round pick in 2021, Stokes has always flashed talent, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps total in 2022 and 2023 combined and, upon his return in 2024, he had lost his starting job and played just 587 snaps, despite being healthy enough to play all 17 games. Stokes played pretty well in 2024 though and, after signing a one-year prove it deal with the Raiders last off-season, he took things to another level in 2025, starting all 16 games he played and leading the league in coverage snaps per completion, allowing just 28 completions for 261 yards all season. Still only going into his age 27 season, Stokes’ injury history will likely be priced into his next contract, but if he can continue staying healthy, he could be a steal for a team that needs cornerback help.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

6. C Tyler Linderbaum

Linderbaum is an elite center, but hits the open market because the franchise tag for offensive linemen is based on the top salaries of offensive tackles, making it cost prohibitive for teams to tag interior linemen. Linderbaum isn’t worth the franchise tag value of around 25.8 million, but figures to exceed the 18 million annually that Creed Humphrey makes as the highest paid center in the league.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

7. CB Jaylen Watson

Despite only being a 7th round pick in 2022, Watson showed promise across 440 snaps as a reserve in 2023 and in six games as a starter in an injury shortened season in 2024, before breaking out as a season-long starter in 2025, allowing 59.3% completion and no touchdowns on 59 pass attempts. Despite only one full season as a starter, Watson figures to be highly valued on the open market, given the positional value of cornerbacks.

Prediction: 3 years, 54 million, 40 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

8. DE Jaelan Phillips

A first round pick in 2021, Phillips looked on his way to stardom early in his career, totaling 22 sacks, 32 quarterback hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 42 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he tore his achilles late in the 2023 season, subsequently suffered another knee injury in 2024 that cost him most of the season, and did not seem to be the same player upon his return in 2025, leading to the Dolphins trading him to the Eagles for a third round pick at the trade deadline, rather than extending him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season. 

Phillips started to show his old form down the stretch with the Eagles though and, despite a slow start, finished the 2025 season with 5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while playing all 17 games. Phillips’ injury history will probably be priced into his next contract, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could prove to be a steal for a pass rush needy team if he can prove his injury history is a fluke rather than a long-term concern.

Prediction: 4 years, 90 million, 50 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

9. QB Malik Willis

A third round pick in 2022, Willis entered the league raw and struggled early in his career as a spot starter in Tennessee, leading to him being traded to the Packers for next to nothing two off-seasons ago, but Willis has seemingly come into his own in Green Bay, only making three starts as a backup over the past two seasons, but making the most of his opportunities, completing 78.7% of his passes for 10.92 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while rushing for 6.21 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries. With limited quarterback options available to teams this off-season, Willis will likely get a shot to start somewhere in 2026. He’s still pretty unproven, but comes with a lot of upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 75 million, 30 million guaranteed with Miami Dolphins

10. DT John Franklin-Myers

An underrated part of dominant defenses with the Jets and Broncos in recent years, Franklin-Myers is a versatile defensive lineman capable of rushing the passer from the inside and the edge and he is a solid run defender as well. He has a career pressure rate of 12.9% in four seasons in which he was primarily used as an edge rusher and a career 13.0% pressure rate in three seasons in which he was primarily used as an interior rusher. He’s going into his age 30 season, which will likely affect his long-term guarantees a little, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet and could easily have at least another couple solid seasons left in the tank.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

11. OT Rasheed Walker

Walker leaves something to be desired as a run blocker, but he is an effective pass protector who is responsible for allowing just 14 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 48 games over the past three seasons. Given how valuable pass protectors who can play the blindside are, Walker likely would have been franchise tagged this off-season if not for the Packers’ cap issues. He figures to be paid highly on the open market, given how difficult it is to find left tackles of Walker’s caliber.

Prediction: 4 years, 100 million, 55 million guaranteed with Pittsburgh Steelers

12. LB Demario Davis

Davis has had a borderline Hall of Fame caliber career, with five All-Pro team appearances, and, despite going into his age 37 season, he hasn’t really shown many signs of decline and was still one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season. There is obviously a risk of a significant drop off in 2026, but that will be priced into his contract value and, if he doesn’t drop off significantly, he could prove to be a steal for a team in need of linebacker help. He figures to get a similar deal to the 1-year, 9 million dollar deal Bobby Wagner got from the Commanders last off-season.

Prediction: 1 year, 10 million, 8 million guaranteed with Buffalo Bills

13. CB Jamel Dean

Dean has been a consistently above average cornerback throughout his 7-year career. The concerns are that he is going into his age 30 season and consistently misses time with injury, maxing out at 884 snaps and 15 games in a season in his career.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 30 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

14. DE Odafe Oweh

A first round pick in 2021, Oweh got off to a somewhat slow start to his career, but he has developed into an above average pass rusher, with 22.5 sacks, 31 quarterback hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 47 games over the past three seasons. After a slow start to the 2025 season, Oweh was traded from the Ravens to the Chargers rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency, but he quickly bounced back with his new team. He’s not a true top tier edge defender, but he’s an above average player who could help a lot of teams and, given the constant demand for edge rush talent in the NFL, Oweh could be paid pretty highly this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 72 million, 45 million guaranteed with Los Angeles Chargers

15. S Bryan Cook

A second round pick in 2022, Cook took a big step forward in his fourth year in the league in 2025, after previously being a marginal starter. He’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also only going into his age 27 season and will likely be paid well by a team that believes he has permanently turned a corner and, as a result, will remain an above average starter going forward.

Prediction: 4 years, 68 million, 35 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

16. LB Leo Chenal 

One of the best run stopping linebackers in the league, Chenal isn’t bad in coverage either. He has never played more than 31.4 snaps per game in a season since being selected by the Chiefs in the 3rd round in 2022, but that is largely due to having two good every down linebackers on the roster with him in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. Only going into his age 26 season, Chenal will likely be paid by a team who views him as having the upside to be an above average every down linebacker.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 23 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

17. DT Sheldon Rankins

Rankins has been a consistently above average interior defender throughout his career. He’s now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, as his 2025 season was in line with how he’s played throughout his career. He finished last season with 3 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate, while playing the run at a high level and playing 623 snaps total. 

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Houston Texans

18. DT Tim Settle

A 5th round pick in 2018, Settle has developed into an above average interior defender who excels as a pass rusher and holds his own as a run defender as well. In 2024, he played a career high 625 snaps and totaled 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, all of which set or tied his career high, and he was on his way to a similar season in 2025 before missing the final five games of the season with a foot injury. If he is healthy, he should be paid well on the open market, still only going into his age 29 season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 25 million guaranteed with Cincinnati Bengals

19. DE Khalil Mack

A future Hall of Famer, Mack is going into his age 35 season, but he hasn’t really dropped off much, totaling 5.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 12 games last season, while playing at a high level against the run. There is a risk that he drops off significantly in 2026, but he is still a worthwhile addition on a short-term deal for teams in need of edge help.

Prediction: 1 year, 20 million, 15 million guaranteed with Dallas Cowboys

20. WR Jauan Jennings

A sparingly used wide receiver over the first four seasons of his career, Jennings was forced into a larger role in 2024 when the 49ers had many wide receiver injuries and, in his first significant role, he finished with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run, more than doubling his yardage total from his first four seasons combined (963). Jennings was not as good in 2025, with a 55/643/9 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run, but he played through a lot of injuries early in the season and got better as the year went on. He’s not a true #1 wide receiver, but he would upgrade a lot of receiving corps and figures to be in high demand this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 60 million, 42 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

21. WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs has never surpassed 724 receiving yards in a season, but that came on just 85 targets last season and he ranked 25th among wide receivers who had at least 75 targets with an average of 1.73 yards per route run and 8th with an average depth of target of 13.2. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s conceivable he could be much more productive in a larger role elsewhere, instead of playing on a Packers offense that spreads the ball around a lot.

Prediction: 4 years, 80 million, 45 million guaranteed with Baltimore Ravens

22. WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson is a former second round pick, surpassed 1000 yards receiving last season, and is only going into his age 25 season, but his lack of size at 5-8 185 could prevent teams from viewing him as a true #1 receiver. He still figures to be in high demand this off-season though. 

Prediction: 3 years, 63 million, 45 million guaranteed with Tennessee Titans

23. WR Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has always flashed talent, but has never put it together for a full season, missing 15 games with injury and totaling just 242 targets in four seasons in the league. The deep threat has averaged 9.27 yards per target, 1.75 yards per route run, 14.7 yards per catch, and an average depth of target of 13.5 in his career, while also adding four return touchdowns on special teams. He figures to be paid significantly based on his upside.

Prediction: 3 years, 48 million, 35 million guaranteed with Las Vegas Raiders

24. LB Kaden Elliss

A hybrid reserve edge rusher/linebacker early in his career, Elliss became an every down off ball linebacker in 2022 and has been an above average starter ever since, excelling against the run and as a blitzer, while also holding his own in coverage. The problem is he is going into his age 31 season in 2026, which will affect his market, even if he hasn’t shown real signs of decline yet.

Prediction: 3 years, 42 million, 24 million guaranteed with Denver Broncos

25. LB Devin Bush

Bush was a disappointment early in his career, after being selected in the first round in 2019, but injuries were a big part of the reason for his early career struggles and he has broken out as an above average starter over the past two seasons, playing well both in coverage and against the run, while only missing one game between the two seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, Bush is young enough to earn a significant payday in free agency this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

26. CB Roger McCreary

McCreary was a solid starting cornerback for the Titans from his rookie season in 2022 through the middle of last season when he was traded to the Rams, rather than being extended ahead of his pending free agency. McCreary was more of an insurance policy for the Rams than anything and played very little for them, but it can be tough for a player to get traded mid-season and make an impact on his new team, so I don’t hold it against him much. Still only in his age 26 season, he’s a solid, if unspectacular starting cornerback option for teams in need this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 31 million guaranteed with Washington Commanders

27. C Connor McGovern

Miscast as a guard earlier in his career, McGovern made the move to center for the Bills two seasons ago and has been an above average starter there since making the switch. Relatively young in his age 29 season, McGovern should remain an above average starting center for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 4 years, 48 million, 25 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

28. CB Martin Emerson

Emerson had a solid rookie year in 2022 and then an even better second season in the league in 2023, when he allowed 47.1% completion and no touchdowns on 70 targets. However, he regressed significantly in 2024, allowing 62.7% completion and 6 touchdowns with no interceptions and then he tore his achilles and missed the entire 2025 season. The injury and his inconsistency obviously make him a risky signing, but he will be more than a full year removed from the injury by the start of the season and, given the top-end ability he has shown and that he is only going into his age 26 season, he could prove to be worth the risk.

Prediction: 3 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed with Atlanta Falcons

29. S Jalen Thompson

Thompson is an experienced starting safety with 87 career starts and is still only going into his age 28 season. He doesn’t have a huge upside, but he should remain a solid starting safety for at least another couple seasons.

Prediction: 3 years, 36 million, 24 million guaranteed with Chicago Bears

30. RB Travis Etienne

A first round pick in 2021, Etienne has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season three times and is a decent pass catcher as well, with 1.07 yards per route run in his career, but injuries have significantly affected his other two seasons, as he missed all of his rookie season in 2021 and was limited to 3.72 YPC and 150 carries by injuries in 2024. The Jaguars seem willing to move on from him unless he comes at a discount, in favor of 2025 4th round pick Bhayshul Tuten, but he still figures to be paid as a starter somewhere this off-season.

Prediction: 3 years, 33 million, 22 million guaranteed with New Orleans Saints

NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie NFL Picks

2025

Total Against the Spread: 150-129-6 (53.76%)

Pick of the Week: 10-8 (55.56%)

High Confidence Picks: 23-24-1 (48.94%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 37-28-2 (56.92%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-60-3 (53.85%)

Low Confidence Picks: 53-37-3 (58.89%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-32 (45.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 18-18 (50.00%)

2024

Total Against the Spread: 157-122-6 (56.27%)

Pick of the Week: 9-9 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 17-9-2 (65.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-21-2 (66.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-39-4 (63.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-46-2 (53.06%)

No Confidence Picks: 37-37 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 10-19 (34.48%)

2023

Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)

Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)

No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)

2022

Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)

Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)

Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)

No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)

2021

Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)

No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)

2020

Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)

Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)

No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)

2019

Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)

Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)

High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)

No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)

2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)

2017

Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)

Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2016

Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)

High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)

Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)

No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)

2015

Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)

Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)

High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)

No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)

2014

Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)

Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)

High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)

Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)

No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)

2013

Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)

High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)

Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1849-1621-92 (53.29%)

Pick of the Week: 127-89-10 (58.80%)

High Confidence Picks: 222-161-16 (57.96%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 510-398-17 (56.17%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 859-648-43 (57.00%)

Low Confidence Picks: 550-524-22 (51.21%)

No Confidence Picks: 440-449-27 (49.49%)

Moneyline Upset Picks: 258-290-1 (47.08%)

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl LX Pick

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Seahawks, Super Bowl LX Pick

New England Patriots (17-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in Super Bowl LX

The Seahawks are the better of these two teams, but I don’t think the gap between these two teams is big enough to justify a 4.5-point spread, with about 30% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play at +1.17 and 1st in first down rate differential at +5.43%, but the Patriots aren’t far behind, ranking 2nd in yards per play at +1.03 and 3rd in first down rate differential at +3.01%. The Seahawks have faced a significantly tougher schedule and have better special teams, but, even when those are factored in, the Seahawks are only about 4 points ahead of the Patriots in schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings have these two teams even closer than that, with about a 3-point gap between these two teams, as a result of the Patriots being in a slightly better injury situation. Both teams have had key players miss time and return this season, but the Patriots have had slightly more. For the Patriots, the key players who have missed time and returned are starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (3 games missed), lead running back Rhomandre Stevenson (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Mack Collins (4 games missed), starting left tackle Will Campbell (4 games missed), starting left guard Jared Wilson (4 games missed), top cornerback Christian Gonzalez (3 games missed), top linebacker Robert Spillane (4 games missed), top defensive tackle Milton Williams (5 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Anfernee Jennings (3 games missed) and Kryisis Tonga (4 games missed).

Meanwhile, for the Seahawks, their shorter list includes starting left tackle Charles Cross (3 games missed), starting center Jalen Sundell (4 games missed), top cornerback Devon Witherspoon (5 games missed), top safety Julian Love (9 games missed), slot cornerback Nick Emmanwori (3 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Derick Hall (3 games missed), and Jarren Reed (4 games missed). The Patriots are also the healthier team going into this game, essentially at full strength, while the Seahawks continue to be without rotational running back Zach Charbonnet for the 3rd straight game. 

History is also not on the side of the Seahawks covering this spread. Since 2000, favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-11 ATS and 6-7 straight up in the Super Bowl. That alone isn’t a reason to bet the Patriots, but it backs up the rest of my analysis that suggests this line is a little too high. The Super Bowl is the most bet game of the season and the sportsbooks know they can boost the spread a little bit more than they otherwise would and casual bettors will still take the favorite, as they are in this game, with about 75% of the money on the Seahawks. I like the Patriots for a small wager.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +4.5

Confidence: Medium

2021 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

There are a lot of great players in this draft, but, as a rule of thumb, I tend to prioritize franchise quarterbacks going to quarterback needy teams over any other position and I tend to stick with the original pick whenever it makes sense, especially if the team extended their original pick on a big contract. Both are true in this case, as Trevor Lawrence signed a 5-year, 275 million dollar extension with the Jaguars two off-season ago, which still makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary and, while he he has had his up and downs, he is coming off of a career best 2025 campaign. He completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, while scoring 38 total touchdowns to 15 total turnovers and leading the Jaguars to a 13-4 record in the first year of new head coach Liam Coen. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Lawrence is set up to be the Jaguars’ franchise quarterback long-term. I don’t think the Jaguars want a do over on this, even with other great players on the board.

2. New York Jets – WR Ja’Marr Chase (LSU)

The Jets, on the other hand, would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Zach Wilson, is one of the biggest busts in recent memory. There isn’t another good quarterback option to give the Jets here, but the Jets will have their pick of some All-Pro caliber players at other positions. Micah Parsons probably would have been the pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late in the 2025 season, but Ja’Marr Chase is not a bad player for the Jets to pivot to. One of the best wide receivers in the league, averaging a 113/1490/12 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just 7 games total, Chase would be a massive upgrade for a Jets team that was led in receiving in 2021 by second round rookie Elijah Moore, who had just 538 receiving yards. Chase probably wouldn’t be as productive away from Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but he is too good for the Jets to pass on.

3. San Francisco 49ers – DE Micah Parsons (Penn State)

Here is another team that would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Trey Lance, was just as big of a bust as Wilson, arguably even more so, when you consider the 49ers traded away three first round picks to select him 3rd overall. Luckily, the 49ers found Brock Purdy with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to give them the franchise quarterback they thought Lance would be. Otherwise, the failed Lance pick would be even more of a blunder. In this redraft, they can take a player actually worth three first round picks. Parsons’ torn ACL late in the 2025 season dampens his long-term outlook somewhat, but before the injury, he had been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league since his rookie year, totaling 65 sacks, 80 hits, and an 18.8% pressure rate in 77 career games. He would give the 49ers a much needed upgrade opposite Nick Bosa, giving the 49ers the best edge defender duo in the league.

4. Atlanta Falcons – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

The Falcons missed out on Ja’Marr Chase when they took tight end Kyle Pitts over him the first time around and now Chase goes two picks ahead of them in this re-draft, but the Falcons still can get a great wide receiver in this draft, much needed since their leading wide receiver in 2021 was Russell Gage, who had just a 66/770/4 slash line and then left in free agency the following off-season. St. Brown, who originally fell to the 4th round somehow, has proven to be a steal for the Lions, averaging a 112/1281/9 slash line per 17 games with two total games missed in his career. In most years, he would be the first wide receiver off the board in a re-draft.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)

The Bengals lose their original pick Ja’Marr Chase, but, given that they already had Tee Higgins on the roster and that their offensive line play has consistently held this team back, adding an elite offensive lineman in a re-draft rather than Chase might actually make them better in the long-term. Originally the 7th overall pick to the Lions, Sewell has developed into the best right tackle in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 80.6, 91.0, 87.5, and 95.2 in his five seasons in the league, while making each of the last four Pro Bowls and each of the last three 1st team All-Pros.

6. Miami Dolphins – CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)

The Dolphins original pick here, Jaylen Waddle, was not a bad selection and the Dolphins rewarded him with a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, but they can shoot a little higher in this re-draft with 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain. The anchor of the Broncos’ elite defense, Surtain has made four Pro Bowls, two All-Pro first teams and one All-Pro second team in his career and is arguably the best player in the league at his position.

7. Detroit Lions – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

The Lions lose out the most in this redraft, with two players they selected in the original draft going in the top-5 already, but the Lions can at least replace St. Brown with another high level wide receiver. Collins took a couple years to start producing at a high level, but that could be in part due to his poor quarterback play in those two years. Since being paired with CJ Stroud in 2023, Collins has averaged a 89/1384/9 slash line per 17 games over the past three seasons. Durability has been a minor concern, as he has missed 19 games in five seasons in the league, but he is true #1 receiver when healthy and he is the best available option on the board for the Lions, after the numerous All-Pro caliber players selected before this pick.

8. Carolina Panthers – CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)

Jaycee Horn was the Panthers’ original pick here. Injuries were a big concern for him early in his career, as he missed 29 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he always flashed talent and put it all together in 2024, when he played 15 games, earning a 4-year, 100 million dollar extension, which makes him currently the 3rd highest paid cornerback in the league in average annual salary. Horn then lived up to that extension in 2025, when he played a career high 16 games and continued playing at a high level, making his second straight Pro Bowl. You could argue there are better players left on the board, but I don’t think the Panthers want a redo on this selection.

9. Denver Broncos – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

The Broncos miss out on their original first round pick, Patrick Surtain, but they also originally drafted another elite player in this draft, taking Quinn Meinerz in the third round. Meinerz’s small school status and his position caused him to fall to the third round originally, but he has developed into one of the best guards in the NFL, receiving PFF grades of 67.4, 77.7, 83.7, 88.2, and 90.9 in five seasons in the league, while making the first team All-Pro in back-to-back seasons. It’s normally hard to justify taking a guard this high, but Meinerz is arguably the best guard in the league and the Broncos are clearly thrilled with him, extending him as soon as possible two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal, which now looks like a great value.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Devonta Smith (Alabama)

Devonta Smith is not the true #1 receiver that the wide receivers taken ahead of him are, but the Eagles took him here originally and have to be pretty happy with him. They extended him on a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago and he has averaged a 82/1067/7 slash line per 17 games, despite playing on one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Even if he’s not elite, he’s a good fit for the Eagles’ offense and they would probably take him again, given their other options.

11. Chicago Bears – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

Centers don’t often go this high, but Humphrey is probably the best center in the league, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, 92.8, and 88.8 in five seasons in the league, while making four straight Pro Bowls, two 1st team All-Pros, and one 2nd team All-Pro in his career. He would be a big help for the Bears, whose starting center in 2021 was Sam Mustipher, who ranked 37th among 41 eligible centers on PFF that season. The Bears eventually found a great center in Drew Dalman, who they signed in free agency last off-season, but Humphrey solves the issue faster and is a better player than even Dalman is.

12. Dallas Cowboys – DE Greg Rousseau (Miami)

The Cowboys don’t get Micah Parsons this time around, but Greg Rousseau is a great edge player in his own right. His 32 sacks in 78 career games don’t jump off the page, but the Bills rotate defensive ends more than most teams, leading to Rousseau playing just 589 snaps per season in his career, and, despite that, he still has added 60 hits to those 32 sacks, while being one of the most efficient edge rushers in the league on a per snap basis, recording a 13.9% pressure rate in his career and a 14.4% pressure rate over the past three seasons. He could easily have a much higher sack total in a bigger role.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)

Rashawn Slater, the Chargers’ original pick here, has been one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy in his career, with PFF grades of 83.6, 76.6, and 91.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively. Unfortunately, he has missed all or most of his other two seasons due to injury, including the entirety of the 2025 season. The Chargers extended him on a 4-year, 114 million deal last off-season right before his injury, making him the highest paid offensive tackle in the league in average annual salary, and, given how badly their offensive line fared in his absence, I don’t think they have any regrets about that deal and would draft him again if given the chance, given the other available options.

14. New York Jets – WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)

The Jets already got Ja’Marr Chase out of this draft, but their need for wide receiver help in 2021 was so dire that they could definitely double up on the position with their two first round picks if the right player falls to them. In this case, the right player does fall, as I have been trying to fit Jaylen Waddle in somewhere for the last few picks. He is not an elite #1 receiver and probably wouldn’t go 6th overall to the Dolphins again, but has averaged a 81/1098/6 slash line per 17 games in his career and would still go off the board fairly early, even in a deep wide receiver class.

15. New England Patriots – OT Alaric Jackson (Iowa)

The Patriots’ original first round pick here, Mac Jones, did not work out in New England and the Patriots moved on after three years. Jones fared better in San Francisco this season, but the Patriots probably wouldn’t give him another shot in a re-draft. Instead, they beef up an offensive line that was part of the reason why Jones struggled for much of his time in New England. Alaric Jackson somehow went undrafted the first time around, but he has developed into a solid left tackle for the Rams, making 45 starts in the past three seasons and receiving season-long PFF grades of 66.2, 78.3, and 82.9 over that time.

16. Arizona Cardinals – G Trey Smith (Tennessee)

The Cardinals have had offensive line issues for years, especially at guard. In 2021, three of the four players who made starts at guard for them finished below average on PFF. Trey Smith, on the other hand, has PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, 78.8, and 68.5 in his five seasons in the league, while starting 79 of a possible 85 games over that stretch and making two Pro Bowls.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

The Raiders’ original pick here, right tackle Alex Leatherwood, was seen as a reach at the time and proved to be a massive bust, lasting just one season in Las Vegas. Spencer Brown, on the other hand, is a former third round pick who took a couple years to develop, but who has turned into one of the better right tackles in the league, receiving PFF grades of 68.1, 73.6, and 76.2 over the past three seasons. He would have immediately been a better pick than Leatherwood and would have developed into a much needed high level offensive lineman on an offensive line that was otherwise one of the worst in the league in 2025.

18. Miami Dolphins – DE Jaelan Phillips (Miami)

Jaelan Phillips had an up and down career in Miami after being selected with this pick originally. He looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the best edge defenders in the league with PFF grades of 87.7 and 79.8 in 2022 and 2023, while totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games over those two seasons, but he tore his achilles down the stretch in 2023 and was limited to 134 snaps in 2024 due to various injuries. Upon his return in 2025, he was solid, but not as good as before, leading to the Dolphins trading him away to the Eagles for a third round pick at the deadline, at which point he seemed to find his old form, finishing the year with a 74.0 PFF grade, 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate in 17 games, despite a relatively slow start. All things considered, the Dolphins would probably draft him again, given the circumstances, especially since he did return a relatively high pick once he was eventually traded, and he seems likely to get a big contract as a free agent on the open market this off-season, assuming the Eagles don’t franchise tag him.

19. Washington Commanders – G Sam Cosmi (Texas)

The Commanders’ original pick here, Jamin Davis, proved to be a bust, but their second round pick this year, Sam Cosmi, was a much better selection. He has received PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, 80.6, 68.1, and 76.3 in five seasons in the league, originally moving back and forth between right tackle and guard, before settling in at guard. Injuries have been a concern for him, costing him 27 games in five seasons, but the Commanders still locked him up on a 4-year, 74 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago and would probably want to keep him in a redraft, even if it meant using their first round pick on him this time around.

20. New York Giants – OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)

Darrisaw could have been a top-15 or even top-10 pick if I had done this a year or two ago, but Darrisaw tore his ACL midway through the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, missing seven games and falling to a 65.9 PFF grade, after grades of 71.9, 90.3, 82.4, and 81.4 in his four previous seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Darrisaw could easily bounce back, but he is a riskier pick than he would have been pre-injury. The Giants take a chance on him and could wind up getting a steal, especially given how much they have needed offensive line help in recent years.

21. Indianapolis Colts – TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)

Kyle Pitts never lived up his draft slot after being taken 4th overall by the Falcons, making him the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, but, despite his ups and downs, he still has the 8th most catches and the 4th most receiving yards by a tight end since entering the league and would probably still be taken in the first round by someone. Still only going into his age 26 season, Pitts posted career highs in catches (88) and touchdowns (5) in 2025, while finishing with the second highest yardage total of his career (926) and figures to either get a big contract or the franchise tag this off-season. The Colts had next to nothing at the tight end position until drafting Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft and Pitts would have given them a much needed weapon over the middle four years sooner.

22. Tennessee Titans – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

Milton Williams took a few years to develop, but he has turned into one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. In 29 games over the past two seasons, he has 8.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.8% pressure rate and, while his run defense isn’t as good, he would still be a valuable addition to any defensive line. His slow start to his career causes him to not go as high as he otherwise would, but he would be a good fit in Tennessee inside next to Jeffery Simmons.

23. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Ernest Jones (South Carolina)

The Vikings had Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr as their top-2 linebackers in 2021 and they were once a talented duo, but they were getting to the end of their time in Minnesota, with 2021 being Barr’s final season and Kendricks leaving after 2022. In the meantime, Ernest Jones could have been an upgrade over third linebacker Nick Vigil before becoming an every down player in 2022. Originally a 3rd round pick, Jones became a starter as a rookie for the Super Bowl Champion Rams (7 starts) and has made 56 starts in four seasons since with the Rams, Titans, and Seahawks, developing into a high-level every down middle linebacker.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Mac Jones (Alabama)

Mac Jones was a tough player to slot. Obviously he was a bust with the Patriots, but he showed signs of being a solid starter at times in New England and showed even more signs as an injury fill-in with the 49ers in 2025. He figures to be a hot commodity on the trade market this off-season and will likely be starting somewhere in 2026. In a weak quarterback class in 2021, that is probably enough for him to get a late first round look from a quarterback needy team. In Pittsburgh, he could have sat for a year behind Ben Roethlisberger and overall he would have been in a better situation than he was in New England for a Steelers team that drafted a much bigger first round pick bust in Kenny Pickett the year after this draft. As of 2025, the Steelers have still not found a long-term franchise quarterback, going from stopgap to stopgap over the past few seasons.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Osa Odighizuwa (UCLA)

I thought about sticking with the Jaguars original first round pick, running back Travis Etienne, who had his moments in Jacksonville, including three seasons of 1,400 yards from scrimmage, but he hasn’t quite been the elite level of running back that is deserving of being a first round pick and the Jaguars are not expected to prioritize re-signing him as a free agent this off-season. Instead, the Jaguars address a need at defensive tackle that has persisted for years. Osa Odighizuwa leaves something to be desired as a run stopper, but he is a consistently above average interior pass rusher, with 17 sacks, 59 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 84 games over the past five seasons. Originally a third round pick by the Cowboys, Odighizuka was extended on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal last off-season that looks like a solid value, making him the 16th highest paid interior defender in the league.

26. Cleveland Browns – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

The Browns had one of the worst defensive tackles rooms in the league in 2021. Barmore would have gone higher if hadn’t missed a large portion of two seasons with injury, but he has 15.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate when on the field in his career, across 65 games. He is not nearly as good as a run defender, but his pass rush ability makes him a worthy pick here.

27. Baltimore Ravens – S Talanoa Hufanga (USC)

The Ravens had an underwhelming safety room in 2021 and used their second round pick Brandon Stephens extensively as a rookie, only to see him struggle and eventually move to cornerback. The Ravens signed Marcus Williams to a big contract during the 2022 off-season, but he never lived up to it. A player like Talanoa Hufanga would have allowed the Ravens to avoid that mistake. Hufanga was 1st team All-Pro in 2022 and, while injuries limited him to just 885 underwhelming snaps played over the next two seasons, he bounced back to make the 2nd team All-Pro in 2025, after signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal last off-season. Only going into his age 27 season, Hufanga will be a steal at that price if he can continue avoiding injuries.

28. New Orleans Saints – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

The Saints originally used their second round pick in this draft on linebacker Pete Warner who has been decent, but Bolton would be an upgrade inside next to Demario Davis. He would cost them their first round pick in this redraft, but he would be worth it. Originally a second round pick by the Chiefs, Bolton has developed into an above average every down player.

29. Green Bay Packers – C Drew Dalman (Stanford)

The Packers used their second round pick in this draft on Josh Myers and he immediately became a starter at center, but Dalman would be a big upgrade. He took a couple years to develop and has been inconsistent as a pass protector, but he has PFF grades of 82.3, 78.8, and 77.5 over the past three seasons, including grades of 90.0, 79.8, and 79.0 as a run blocker. The Bears signed him to a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, making him the 4th highest paid center in the league by average annual salary, and he proved to be worth it, making his first career Pro Bowl in 2025.

30. Buffalo Bills – DE Odafe Oweh (Penn State)

The Bills’ original pick Greg Rousseau went way higher in this re-draft, but Oweh is not a bad replacement. He has 30.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 79 games in five seasons in the league. After a slow start to his contract year in 2025, he was traded to the Chargers from the Ravens and, after bouncing back nicely, he figures to get a significant payday this off-season. Even with his slow start to 2025 and eventual trade, the Ravens, who got a solid safety in Alohi Gilman in return for him, might still draft him again at 31 in a re-draft if they had the chance. The Bills deny them that opportunity and take him one spot earlier.

31. Baltimore Ravens – DT Alim McNeill (NC State)

The Ravens miss out on Oweh and pivot to an interior pass rusher. McNeill tore his ACL late in the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, with 1 sack, 1 hit, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 10 games and a 47.2 run defense grade on PFF, after 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate PFF run defense grades of 79.3 and 64.5 in 27 games in his previous two seasons. Still, he is only going into his age 26 season in 2026 and could easily bounce back another year removed from his injury. 

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Tre’von Moehrig (TCU)

The Buccaneers did not have a lot of needs in the 2021 off-season, returning all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning team in 2020, but they could have used a long-term starter at safety next to Antoine Winfield. Moehrig could have been a reserve for a year, before taking over as the starter in 2022. He has been a solid safety in his career, leading to him receiving a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal from the Panthers last off-season, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in average annual value.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

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New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.

The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.

Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.

Update: Ed Oliver is playing, which is enough for me to increase this to a medium confidence bet.

Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)

These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score in just 4 of their 12 wins and going 8-4 in one score games, the Rams won by multiple scores in 8 of their 13 and went just 5-5 in one score games. As a result of that, the Rams enter this game with a +175 point differential, including the first round of the playoffs, while the Bears have just a +30 point differential.

The difference between these two teams is even bigger than point differential shows though, as the Bears needed a league leading +20 turnover margin to get to that point differential, while the Rams have a more modest +12 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams that had great turnover margins in the regular season tend to not be able to keep that up in the post-season. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season.

In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive, the Rams have a huge edge with a +5.49% first down rate differential, as opposed to -1.00% for the Bears, and a +0.95 yards per play differential, as opposed to -0.30 for the Bears. The Rams also played a tougher schedule, playing five games against remaining playoff teams, as opposed to just one for the Bears, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Rams rank first and have about a 10-point edge over the 19th ranked Bears.

The Rams have been underwhelming compared to how they barely earlier this season in recent weeks, but they haven’t been fully healthy with left tackle Alaric Jackson (1 game missed), right guard Kevin Dotson (3 games missed), safety Quentin Lake (7 games missed), and wide receiver Davante Adams (3 games missed) all missing time in recent weeks, after the Rams had minimal injuries early in the season. However, all four of those players are expected to play this week, with only Dotson questionable, and, overall, the Rams are very healthy for this point in the season. 

The Bears, on the other hand, continue to be plagued by injuries as they have been all season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed), wide receiver Rome Odunze (5 games missed), and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed) and Kyler Gordon (14 games missed) all have returned in recent weeks from significant absences, but linebacker TJ Edwards and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo went down for the season in last week’s win over the Packers, injuries that will likely hurt them against a much tougher opponent this week. 

This line does suggest the Rams are the significantly better team, favoring them by 4 points on the road, but I don’t think this line is high enough, especially when considering that the Rams have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, are 47-39 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but I will increase this bet if I get confirmation that Kevin Dotson will play and this line doesn’t move significantly.

Update: Dotson is playing. I am upgrading this to a high confidence pick.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4

Confidence: High