Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3)

This game is tough to make a decision on because there are two key questionable players on both sides, with Jacksonville’s quarterback Trevor Lawrence considered a gametime decision and New Orleans’ stud linebacker Demario Davis not practicing all week. If Lawrence is out and Davis isn’t, the Saints would be an obvious value pick as only 1.5-point home favorites, but it’s unlikely the line would remain there in that case. 

My current calculated line, which assumes Lawrence and Davis will play at less than 100%, is right at New Orleans -1.5, so we’re not getting any value with either side as of this writing. The Saints do have the benefit of being at home on a short week in a non-divisional game, but that trend applies more to big home favorites, as home favorites of 3.5 or more in non-divisional Thursday games are 29-16 ATS all-time, but home favorites of three or less are just 17-13 ATS. I am going to go with the Saints for pick ‘em purposes for now just on the basis of that limited trend, but I can’t take them with any confidence and depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.

New Orleans Saints 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1.5

Confidence: None