Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

Typically, the rule of thumb is to bet non-divisional home favorites on Thursday Night Football, as it tends to be tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week, but that trend applies more to big home favorites, as home favorites of 3.5 or more in non-divisional Thursday games are 29-17 ATS all-time, while home favorites of three or less are just 17-14 ATS, which is more applicable here, with the Steelers favored by 2.5. 

With that in mind, the Titans should be the right side in this one. The Steelers have a better record at 4-3, while the Titans are at 3-4, but the Titans have played better overall this season. Not only do they have a significant edge in point differential (-8 vs. -34), they also have an even bigger edge in yards per play differential (-0.16 vs. -1.03) and first down rate differential (+0.28% vs. -4.54%), which are more predictive than point differential. My calculated line is even, so the Titans have a good chance to pull the small upset in this game. I would need a full field goal for the Titans to be worth betting against the spread, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes even at +2.5 and the money line is a great value at +130.

Update: This line has moved to 3, so I am going to lock in a bet.

Tennessee Titans 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium