49ers

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. The first is that they’re just not the same team anymore. Back-to-back defending NFC Champions, Seattle is just 4-5 this season and ranks just 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks largely to a remade offense that is not moving the chains well. They’ve had a tough schedule, losing in Green Bay and Cincinnati and at home to Arizona and Carolina, but the toughest team they’ve beaten is Dallas and, ordinarily, the Seahawks would have been able to win at least a couple of those aforementioned tough games, especially at home. Because of the fact that they’re struggling by their standards this season, they’ve been overrated by the odds makers and the public all year, which has led to them failing to cover at home this season (1-3 ATS).

The other reason why the Seahawks haven’t covered at a high rate at home over the past year and a half is because the odds makers have been pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance expensively into the line. It’s not a secret anymore. Even last year, they were just 5-4 ATS at home and they played well last season overall, better than this year. That being said, I don’t think this line is high enough. I think we can buy a little low on Seattle this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rate of moving the chains differential and the Seahawks should be favored by at least two touchdowns over them in Seattle, especially considering the fact that the 49ers are in a bad spot with a home clash against the Cardinals on deck.

San Francisco is expected to be home underdogs of 8 points in that one, according to the early line. Teams are 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 2012, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. On top of that, teams are 41-64 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012, as inferior teams with an upcoming distraction tend to get blown out by a superior team. That’s what I think will happen here. The line is big, but I’m confident enough to put money down on them. The 49ers are still awful and the Seahawks still deserve more than 3 points for homefield advantage.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)

The Falcons have been exposed a little bit in recent weeks. They needed overtime to beat the Redskins in Atlanta, lost in New Orleans, only won by a field goal in Tennessee, who was starting a backup quarterback, and then lost at home in overtime to the Buccaneers last week. On the season, they have just 2 wins by more than 4 points and they haven’t played a single team with a winning record. Despite that, they’re favored by 7.5 points here on the road in San Francisco.

This line was 4 a week ago and typically I love fading significant line movements like this because they tend to be overreactions to single weeks. However, despite the fact that the Falcons are not as good as their record, I actually think this line is too low, if anything. The 49ers are in complete disarray right now. Following a brutal off-season in which they lost about half of their starters, they rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin. Starting wide receiver Anquan Boldin is out for this one, as is starting running back Carlos Hyde. The 49ers are also without top backup running backs Reggie Bush and Mike Davis with injury, so they’ll be going with a committee of Kendall Gaskins, their 4th string running back, and free agent acquisitions Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas, who have been with the team for less than a week.

On top of that, they’ve benched starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick certainly wasn’t playing well at all, but Gabbert has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league whenever he’s been counted on to play in his 5 year NFL career, completing 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. As bad as Kaepernick has been, Gabbert is a clear downgrade and, combining that with the injuries, this line movement is perfectly legitimate. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s inflated by their week schedule, but I’d still take them here in San Francisco as up to 10 point favorites.

They’re also in a good spot going into a bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 40-26 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. Matt Ryan is also 25-13 ATS off of a loss in his career. I can’t bring myself to put money on the Falcons as long as the line is over a touchdown, especially with the public is all over the Falcons, but they should win this one pretty easily.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)

The Rams are not as good as their 3-3 record, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. Given that, it might seem a little silly that they’re favored by 9 here against the 49ers. However, I think this line is pretty legitimate, as San Francisco is the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin, at least in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Following their 20-3 loss at home to the Seahawks last week, this line has moved from 6 in the early line to 9 now, but I still think it’s appropriate. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions a single week, but I’m not going to be doing that this week.

The 49ers are also in a bad spot, as they host the Falcons next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs. Teams are 72-118 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-79 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 21-51 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. If that line were to move to 6, it would open up another dooming trend, as 6+ point underdogs are 40-61 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012. Even if the line doesn’t end up going to 6, the logic still holds. Bad teams tend to struggle and lose big when they have an upcoming distraction. I’m not confident in the Rams at all, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: St. Louis -9

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that these two teams would have the same record going into their week 7 Thursday Night matchup? These two teams were huge rivals a couple of years ago, but, while the 49ers have fallen apart in the past year, the Seahawks have stayed strong, making back-to-back Super Bowls. However, this year, they’ve won the same amount of games. It’s not that the 49ers have really exceeded expectations, as they’ve been just as bad as expected.

San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. Now they’re just 2-4 and rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential.

The Seahawks also are 2-4, but the public seems to think they’re still the far better one between these two teams, backing them pretty heavily as 6.5 point road favorites. I agree with them. The Seahawks certainly have been a disappointing team this year, thanks largely to an offense that has been hamstrung by a horrendous offensive line and an injury to running back Marshawn Lynch, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, that’s way better than the 49ers and the Seahawks have also faced a much tougher schedule, going to Green Bay, hosting Carolina, and going to Cincinnati. Despite that, 3 of their losses have come by a combined 10 points.

Is that enough to justify them being 6.5 point road favorites? I’m not necessarily sure, but they are in a good spot. While the Seahawks go to Dallas next week, where they’ll be 5.5 point favorites, the 49ers go to St. Louis, where they’ll be 6 point underdogs. Teams are 109-80 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites (like the Seahawks will be) and 72-48 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, while 6 point underdogs, like the 49ers are here, are 72-95 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs again, as they will be next week. Better teams tend to cover as long as they don’t have a big distraction on the horizon, especially if the other team has another game that’ll be tough for them on tough. I wouldn’t put money on either side, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4)

The Ravens are a shocking 1-4 to start the season, but their 5 games have been decided by a combined 20 points, so they could easily be 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, even 0-5 or 5-0 if a few things had changed. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they ranked 3rd last season, so I still think they’re better their current rank. Sure, they’ve lost Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata and cornerback Jimmy Smith hasn’t played well at all in his return from a broken foot, but they still have a good amount of talent, they got left tackle Eugene Monroe back from an extended absence last week and Steve Smith returns this week to a receiving corps that desperately needs him, though wide receiver Breshad Perriman returns out and cornerback Lardarius Webb will join him there this week.

Still, they should be able to beat a San Francisco team that is legitimately bad. San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. As a result, they now rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and you’d be hard pressed to argue they aren’t one of the least talented teams in the league. They’re easily the easiest team the Ravens have faced. The Ravens almost knocked off Denver and Cincinnati and I still believe they’re good enough to win this game by at least a field goal. This line at 2 seems too low.

It helps the Ravens that the Seahawks are in an awful spot, with Seattle coming to town on Thursday. The early line has them as 6 point home underdogs, which is bad news for their chances this week. Teams are 38-76 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 20-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 13-29 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’m comfortable putting money on Baltimore, even though they’ve burned me in the past.

Baltimore Ravens 20 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Giants have rebounded from an 0-2 start, winning the last two games and putting themselves in good position to win the wide open NFC East. Some are even pointing out that the Giants could easily be 4-0, which is true, as their losses to Atlanta and Dallas were both close, but they certainly haven’t played like a 4-0 team, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. This team does a lot of good things, but they’re missing too many key contributors with injury (William Beatty, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, Robert Ayers) to be a good team. They’ve been overly reliant on a +6 turnover margin, which is something that’s hard to count on in any given week.

The Giants are coming off the most impressive game of their season, a 24-10 win in Buffalo against a Bills team that was considered pretty good going into the game, but now they return home and they’ve never had much of a homefield advantage in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, dating back to 2004. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. The 49ers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the 49ers, it’s a late night game for the Giants.

All of that being said, I’m going with the Giants here. The 49ers are awful, one of the worst teams in the NFL, after all of their off-season losses. They’ve lost their last 3 games by a combined 79 points, after a random week 1 home win 20-3 over a solid Vikings team. Despite that fluky week 1 win, they’re still 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants aren’t great and don’t have a great homefield advantage, especially at night against a West Coast team, but this line is still more than reasonable. I’m not confident, but they should be the right side.

New York Giants 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The 49ers have lost their last 2 games by margins of 25 (43-18) and 40 (47-7) respectively and now they face Green Bay, one of seven 3-0 teams remaining and arguably the best team in the NFL. The Packers should be able to win by double digits and cover this 9.5 point spread with ease right? Well, the public seems to think so, going heavy on the Packers this week, but, as is often the case, I’m going the other way. I love to fade heavy public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the wrong run and doing so makes sense here.

For one thing, the 49ers’ two big losses were both on the road, but now they return home, where they looked very good week 1 in a 20-3 win over a solid Minnesota team. That was only one game, but their huge losses in Pittsburgh and Arizona were only two games and I feel like people probably just ignore their strong week 1 performance at home in favor of focusing on their two weak performances on the road. The 49ers aren’t a very good team, but they’re better than they’ve been the last two weeks.

Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ anyway, going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On top of that, teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35+. That’s because teams tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed off of awful showings like that. I can’t tell you for certain that the Packers will overlook them a little bit or that the 49ers will play harder trying to avenge two awful losses, but it does make sense that both sides would do that and I do think the 49ers are undervalued here as 9.5 point underdogs. This line was just 6.5 a week ago in the early line and a 3 point shift across the key number of 7 is a significant shift. Not only do I love fading the public, but I especially love fading the public when doing so also means I’m fading a huge line movement. Huge line movements like that from week-to-week are usually brought about by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Packers, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. While they are 39-7, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.04 points per game, at home, they are just 26-20 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 1.28 points per game. They barely covered as 7 point favorites in Chicago earlier this year in their only other road game this season, winning by just 8, after trailing for a large portion of the game against a Bears team that is comparable to this San Francisco team. The Packers are also now more banged up than they were in that game week 1. They’re still missing wide receiver Jordy Nelson, but now they’re also missing right tackle Bryan Bulaga and likely both safety Morgan Burnett and Nelson’s replacement Davante Adams with injuries.

The Packers have had great performances at home over the past 2 weeks, but they’re far being from that same powerhouse on the road and they could easily find themselves in another battle on the road with an inferior team, this time one that is fighting for their pride and also essentially fighting for their season. It’s also worth mentioning that the 49ers have beaten the Packers in 4 straight contests. This is far from the same San Francisco team, but Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers is still around and he’s never been able to figure out Colin Kaepernick’s dual threat abilities.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because Green Bay has another easy game on deck, hosting the Rams, against whom they are expected to be 9 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as they have no upcoming distractions. Meanwhile, the 49ers play the Giants on the road next week and are expected to be 7 point underdogs in that one. Teams are just 70-95 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again. However, the Giants aren’t very good either and I really don’t think the 49ers will overlook the Packers just because they’re facing the Giants next week. A solid showing by the 49ers here this week could also easily drop that line closer to 4 or 5, which is where it should be. I’d still put money on San Francisco this week.

Green Bay Packers 24 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Through 2 games, the Arizona Cardinals rank #1 in the league in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s only been two games, against a schedule that hasn’t been tough (New Orleans and Chicago), and it’s important not to forget that they ranked 17thiin that category in 2014. However, Carson Palmer has played very well in his return from injury and the Arizona defense also looks good again, despite some off-season losses. Again, they’ve had a weak schedule, but now they get big free agent acquisition guard Mike Iupati back from injury and I don’t think the 49ers are much better than the teams the Cardinals have already destroyed this year.

The 49ers started the season out well, beating Minnesota at home week 1, but then last week in Pittsburgh they looked like the bottom dwelling team most expected them to be this season, following an 8-win 2014 season and an off-season full of losses. I think the 49ers’ play week 2 is more representative of their talent level and how their season will go. As a result, I think we’re getting line value with the Cardinals as only 6.5 point home favorites. This line kind of reminds me of the line in San Francisco’s game in Pittsburgh last week, when they were 6.5 point road underdogs and got blown out. Pittsburgh and Arizona have similar talent levels.

It does help the 49ers that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-81 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 282-395 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

However, the 49ers are also in a bad spot, with a home game against the Green Bay Packers, one of the biggest games of their season, on deck. The early line has San Francisco as 6.5 point home underdogs, an appropriate line and bad news for the 49ers’ chances this week. Since 2012, teams are 65-105 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-73 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-48 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. The reason for all three of those trends is the same: it’s very tough for NFL players to be completely focused with a huge home game on deck. Unlike last week, when I took Pittsburgh for a big play against San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Cardinals this week because there is conflicting stuff, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The 49ers had an impressive week 1 victory, beating the Vikings 20-3, but I still think they could end up being a 5 or 6 win team. It’s very possible that their week 1 play isn’t representative of how good they’ll be this season and that they were able to take advantage of a Minnesota team that isn’t as ready to take the next step as people think, after losing two key offensive linemen for an extended period of time (center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt) before the season even started.

On paper, the 49ers just don’t look that good, after an 8-win season in 2014 and all they lost this off-season. They lost right tackle Anthony Davis, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, and defensive end Justin Smith to retirement, left guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, and running back Frank Gore to free agency, and outside linebacker Aldon Smith and defensive end Ray McDonald with off-the-field issues.

They did add wide receiver Torrey Smith in free agency and they get cornerback Tramaine Brock, defensive end Glenn Dorsey, defensive tackle Ian Williams, and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman back from injury. They have solid depth, good young players like running back Carlos Hyde, outside linebacker Aaron Lynch, and cornerback Kenneth Acker, and they should have fewer injuries this season, but this still isn’t a very good team.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, won’t be as good offensively this season, after having the fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league last season, already without center Maurkice Pouncey for an extended period of time with injury. They’ll especially struggle to maintain high level offensive play early in the season with stud running back LeVeon Bell and promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant suspended. On the defensive side of the ball, they struggled week 1 against the Patriots, as they did all of last season.

However, I still think we’re getting line value with the Steelers as mere 6.5 point favorites here, especially with cornerback Brandon Boykin expected to play, after surprisingly missing the first game of the season. Boykin is one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL and only didn’t play week 1 because he was recently acquired in a trade from Philadelphia and hadn’t gotten the defense down yet. This line suggests that the Steelers are just 3.5 points better than the 49ers, which I disagree with. As long as the line stays under a touchdown, I’m comfortable putting money on Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -6.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. San Francisco is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 2.5 point home underdogs here against a good Minnesota team.

Minnesota Vikings 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]