Bills

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 78.40% rate, as opposed to 71.18% for their opponents, a differential of 7.22%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 5-3, but they have a +62 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, with those 3 wins coming by a combined 7 points. In one of their two wins by more than a touchdown, a 43-23 win over a terrible Jets team, they had a +6 turnover margin, which is not sustainable at all, as turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. At the same time, teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

The Jets actually won the chain game in that game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank just 24th in the NFL rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.24% rate, as opposed to 68.32% for their opponents, a differential of -3.08%. This line at just 1.5 in favor of Kansas City seems way too small. However, the Chiefs are in a bad spot with a game against the Seahawks on deck, a big distraction. Teams are 22-40 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Update: The Chiefs are now underdogs, which nullifies that aforementioned trend I was worried about. The Chiefs still aren’t in an ideal spot, but neither are the Bills who have to go to Miami next week. The Chiefs are a significantly better team than the Bills so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-3) at New York Jets (1-6)

This line shifted from even last week to now the Jets being favored by a field goal. The primary reason for that has to be the Percy Harvin trade, as people don’t seem to realize that Harvin wasn’t doing much in Seattle this season and that he probably doesn’t know the entire Jets playbook yet or have chemistry developed with quarterback Geno Smith. It’s disappointing that this line shifted so much as it robbed us of an opportunity to fade a Bills team that isn’t as good as their record.

The Bills are somehow 4-3, though with 3 last second wins by a combined 5 points. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank just 24th, moving the chains at a 65.22% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.23%. That being said, we’re actually now getting line value with the Bills as this line suggests these two teams are even, while in reality the Bills have played better this season. The Jets rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 68.42% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of -4.13%. I have no confidence in the Bills though, especially since they’re a public underdog, but they’re my pick here as I’m going with fading line movement and picking the better team over fading the public.

New York Jets 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)

The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not as good as their record, moving the chains at a 64.16% rate, as opposed to 69.54% for their opponents, a differential of -5.38% that ranks 27th in the NFL. The Vikings aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.82% rate, as opposed to 72.63% for their opponents, a differential of -4.81% that ranks 26th, but the Bills still have no business being favored by 5.5 over anyway except maybe Jacksonville and Oakland.

There was also a significant line movement here over the past week as the Bills were only 3.5 point favorites last week. I don’t understand why. Minnesota didn’t look good at all last week in a 17-3 home loss to the Lions, but the Bills didn’t look much better in a 37-22 to a New England team that is similar caliber to Detroit. The Vikings should be the right side here. I’d be more confident if this line was on the other side of 6 as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more historically and I don’t think the Bills will finish 7-9 or better if they continue playing this poorly. If you can get +6, I’d do it, but at +5.5 this is a low confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 16 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +5.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They’ve also beat Miami at home in Buffalo twice over that time period.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season, including 1-5 ATS as road favorites. The Patriots are just 5-7 straight up on the road over that time period, as opposed to 11-0 straight up at home. On top of that, the Patriots have another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Sure it’s just the Jets, but it’s still a football game and a divisional game at that. Favorites generally don’t cover before Thursday Night Games, going 32-55 ATS in that spot since 2008.

On the other hand, the Patriots could easily be double digit favorites in that game and teams generally cover before being double digit favorites, which makes sense as that game is not nearly as big of a distraction as a harder game. Teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2010, including 55-38 ATS as favorites before being double digit favorites. On top of that, divisional road favorites are 42-24 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. I’m going with the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident and if this line goes below a field goal, I might switch to the Patriots. That’s how close this is and Tom Brady is 43-18 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 in his career.

New England Patriots 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 56-81 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 71-47 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 47-75 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs.

I think we’re also getting line value here as the league still hasn’t caught on to the fact that the Lions are one of the league’s elite teams. The Lions are 5th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.43%. That’s consistent with how they played last season (regardless of their record), as they finished 6th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42%. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -7.50%.

There is one reason that this isn’t a bigger play. The Bills are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. The Lions should still be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Texans, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)

Both of these teams started a surprising 2-0 after finishing with a top-10 pick last season and then fell flat in their 3rd game of the season last week to fall to 2-1. However, one team is significantly better than the other. While the Bills are moving the chains at a 64.10% rate, 31st in the NFL, while allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.33% rate, 16th in the NFL, the Texans are 21st (72.94%) and 20th (75.54%) respectively. That means that, while the Texans aren’t that impressive with a rate of moving the chains differential of -2.57% (22nd in the NFL), they’re better than the Bills who are -9.23% (31st).

That being said, it’s not a high confidence pick on the Texans, even as they are mere 3 point home favorites. The Texans aren’t in a good spot as they have to travel to Dallas next week, where they will likely be underdogs. Teams are 68-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bills have to go to Detroit next week, so they have some upcoming distractions, but the Texans are still in the worse spot. The Texans are the pick, but I’m not that confident.

Houston Texans 17 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.

The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.

The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

I had these two teams as essentially even before the season started and I really have much of a reason to change that drastically right now. The Dolphins got an impressive home victory over the Patriots, but the Bills were able to win on the road in Chicago. The Bears aren’t a great team or anything, but it’s always impressive when a team wins on the road. However, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team as they are road favorites of about a month.

The Bills are now returning home, where they were a lot better last season than on the road. They went 6-1 ATS at home last season, excluding a game in Toronto that was essentially a neutral site game. They beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They knocked off the Dolphins twice last season, including a 19-0 win week 16 in Buffalo and I like their chances to do so again, especially against a Dolphins team that could be riding a little too high after last week (7-13 ATS after playing the Patriots since 2001).

Buffalo Bills 16 Miami Dolphins 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bills, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expect their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. The Bears have already lost 3rd wide receiver Marquess Wilson to a significant injury.

Defensively, they had injuries last season, losing Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Henry Melton for significant periods of time, but Melton is gone and Briggs and Tillman are going into their age 34 and 33 seasons respectively and see could never be the same. I like what they did at defensive end bringing in LaMarr Houston, Jared Allen, and Willie Young to replace Julius Peppers, Corey Wootton, and Shea McClellin, but Allen isn’t what he used to be and he gives them 4 players who are over 40 (Allen, Briggs, Tillman, and Tim Jennings). It’s not going to be a significantly improved unit and it’ll need to be with the offense likely “only” being an above average offense.

I’m not thrilled about the Bills either, but, as long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, they’re the right side. These two teams are essentially equal (the Bills’ offense is equally bad as the Bears’ defense and the Bears’ offense is equally good as the Bills’ defense) so this line should be around 3. I’m certainly not laying a touchdown with a mediocre Bears team. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites. The Bills are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

Manuel looked like a reach as a rookie. Ignore the injuries (several lower body injuries limited him to 706 snaps in 10 games), Manuel really struggled on the field completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and even struggled, efficiency wise, as a runner, even though that’s supposed to be an added bonus he offers teams. He rushed for just 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries, a pathetic 3.51 YPC. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but so far his career is not off to a great start. He’s a QB2 with upside only because of his running ability and his first round draft status.

3500 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (233 pts standard)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

CJ Spiller, the 9th overall pick in 2010, was supposed to have a huge breakout year last year as the feature back in Buffalo’s run heavy offense. He was very impressive in 2012, averaging 6.01 yards per carry on 207 carries, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 43 catches for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Spiller only played 394 snaps last season for two reasons. The first reason was injury. He only missed 1 game with injury, but he was limited in others. He had single digit carries in 3 games and showed serious inconsistency, with 5 games in which he had 23 rushing yards or fewer. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry, rushing for 933 yards and 2 touchdowns on 202 carries, but inconsistency was a serious problem. He also only had 33 catches for 185 yards.

That leads into the second reason why he played so few snaps, which was his struggles on passing downs. He wasn’t awful as a pass catcher, but he was as a pass protector. Spiller could have better health in 2014, which will help him as a rusher and help him play more snaps. He could also bounce back as a pass catcher. The pass protection is the bigger issue though. 300+ touches are his for the taking in this run heavy offense and he could be incredibly efficient, but there’s no guarantee he takes them.

230 carries for 1060 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 300 yards (172 pts standard)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Jackson has defied father time before, doing so just last year, rushing for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns on 206 attempts, while adding 47 catches for 387 yards and another touchdown, and it helps that he got a late start to his career, with just 1394 touches in his career. However, he’s still very old for a running back, going into his age 33 season, and he’s a year removed from a 2-year stretch in which he missed 10 games and a 2012 season in which he rushed for 3.80 YPC on 115 carries. He’s the #2 back on a run heavy offense behind a shaky starter, but his arrow is trending down and Spiller’s is trending up. Jackson could face pressure from Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon for the #2 role as well.

160 carries for 660 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (130 pts standard)

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. They’re always over-drafted because of their name and that’s true of Sammy Watkins as well. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Watkins also has to deal with poor quarterback play. I don’t expect an AJ Green or Julio Jones type season from Watkins as a rookie.

45 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

WR Robert Woods (Buffalo)

Woods was a 2nd round pick in 2013 and caught 40 passes for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns. He averaged 1.21 yards per route run on 484 routes run and caught 40 of 81 targets, 49.4%. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, grading out 79th, but he could be better in his 2nd year in the league.

42 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

WR Mike Williams (Buffalo)

Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9). However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury. After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings.

He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together. All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. His quarterback play could hold him back though.

35 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Scott Chandler was the Bills’ leading receiver last season, catching 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, the Bills can spread it around more this season with Watkins and Williams coming in and Woods going into his 2nd year in the league. Chandler isn’t going to see a ton of targets on this run heavy offense and he doesn’t have good quarterback play. He could score more than twice this season, but he’s only a bye week filler at tight end either way and he doesn’t have much upside.

51 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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