Browns

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Last week, I took a 3rd string quarterback in Kansas City as significant underdogs, even though I was scared, because they were in such a good spot. That worked out for me as Case Keenum led the Texans to a near win as the Chiefs won by a final score of just 17-16. This week, the Chiefs are once again facing a 3rd string quarterback at home and the Browns, like the Texans were last week, are in a good spot. I actually like the Browns even more than I did the Texans for two reasons.

The first reason is that this line is a point higher. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it is because 7 is a key number. Approximately 8% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown. The second reason is I trust Jason Campbell more than I did Case Keenum. Keenum was a complete unknown going into last week’s game. He couldn’t get himself drafted in 2012 and he hadn’t played an NFL snap in his career. That scared me. Campbell, however, is proven.

With the Raiders, he went 11-7 in 2010 and 2011 with a team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and has gone 10-22 in their next 26 games without him. He really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. He has 71 career starts so I’m not going to base my opinion on him off of 6 quarters last year. We know what he is. His career quarterback rating is 82.4 as he’s completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 76 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions.

He’s not great, but he’s alright and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. The Browns have a solid supporting cast. We saw Brian Hoyer win 3 games in 3 tries with the team earlier this season before tearing his ACL because he was able to get the ball to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron downfield and rely on a solid defense. Jason Campbell should be able to do his best Brian Hoyer impression.

It helps Campbell that the Browns are in a good spot this week, as I mentioned earlier. They are road dogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 95-55 ATS in since 2008 and a situation which historically covers at around a 65% rate, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. Meanwhile, while the Chiefs are 7-0 and have a top-5, arguably top-1 defense, they aren’t as good as their record. They don’t move the ball well offensively and they’ve faced a cupcake schedule and they’ve been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin of +11.

In 4 home games, they beaten the Texans and Cowboys by a point a piece and their games with the Giants and Raiders were within a touchdown going into the 4th quarter before a few fluky things busted things open. The Browns have a much better defense than those two teams so they should be able to keep it a close, low scoring game like the Texans and Cowboys did. Despite that, the public is still all over the undefeated Chiefs like they were last week. I expect a similar result and the odds makers to make money again.

The only concern here and the reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week is that Cleveland might lack enough focus to keep this close. They have a big divisional home game against the Ravens, while the Chiefs have no distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Non-divisional road dogs are 49-76 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs, while non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road favorites. However, since the Chiefs are 7-0, I think the Browns will be plenty focused. Home favorites who are 5-0 or better are 19-30 ATS since 2002. It’s a big play on the Browns.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Packers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

The Packers are in a great situational trend spot this week, as non-divisional home favorites here against Cleveland before being divisional road favorites in Minnesota next week. Teams are 47-22 ATS in that spot since 2008. They have no distractions on the schedule and can be completely focused for an obviously inferior opponent. However, this line might be a little bit too here at -10.

The Packers are getting destroyed with injuries. Casey Hayward will make his season debut this week, which is a positive and Morgan Burnett seems to be fine in a few starts back from injury, but that’s about where the positives stop. Middle linebacker Brad Jones is probably out this week. Clay Matthews is out indefinitely and Nick Perry, who was having a great game picking up Matthews’ slack last week, is now also out indefinitely, which leaves them with a converted defensive lineman, a 6th round pick rookie, and an undrafted rookie at rush linebacker.

Offensively, tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod remain out with injuries. Bulaga is out for the season and Sherrod probably won’t play at all this season either. Eddie Lacy is back, but talented slot receiver Randall Cobb was put on short-term injured reserve and James Jones suffered an injury of his own. He’ll probably play, but he could easily be limited. This isn’t a new thing for the Packers. In 2012, they were dead last in adjusted games lost and in 2010, when they won the Super Bowl, they were 30th.

The Browns, meanwhile, are obviously incompetent offensively with Brandon Weeden, but they have a very strong defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72%, as opposed to 71% for their offense. They generally don’t get blown out, with 19 losses by more than a touchdown since the start of the 2010 season. That sounds like a lot, but consider they’ve lost 37 games total since the start of the 2010 season. More than half of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and only 12 have come by more than 10 points.

Of course, they played the Lions close last week and still lost by 14 because of a ridiculous pick six by Brandon Weeden. I wouldn’t be shocked if something like that happened again. The Packers are always especially dominant at home, going 26-3, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game and covering 21 out of 29 times. Aaron Rodgers is incredible at home and we could see the Packers blow out the Browns in a very Aaron Rodgers led effort. I wish the line was lower, but the Packers should be the right side. They’re also my survivor pick this week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cleveland Browns 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -10

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-2)

Record: 3-3

The Browns looked great offensively in the first half as it looked like the return of Josh Gordon was helping even Brandon Weeden look like a passable quarterback, giving him two dynamic passing game weapons with Jordan Cameron. The Browns led 17-7 at halftime, but didn’t score the rest of the way in a 31-17 home loss to the Lions. There wasn’t much Josh Gordon could do about what Weeden did in the 2nd half as he imploded, including a pick six on one of the worst throws you’ll ever see.

Week 6 Studs

LT Joe Thomas

C Alex Mack

Week 6 Duds

QB Brandon Weeden

TE Jordan Cameron

LOLB Paul Kruger

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

MLB Craig Robertson

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Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I don’t know how this game can have a line. Calvin Johnson is a game time decision and yet this line has been at about -2.5 or -3 in favor of Detroit all week. The Lions’ offense looked miserable without Johnson last week, totaling just 286 yards and not scoring a touchdown until there were 2 minutes left in the game in a 22-9 loss to a Green Bay team with a vulnerable defense. It’s not just that Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. It’s the Lions’ lack of wide receiver depth. With the exception of Ryan Broyles, who is still working his way back from injury, the Lions don’t have a single receiver who would be higher than 5th on the average depth chart. Johnson is as valuable as any non-quarterback can be to his team for that reason.

Even if we knew Johnson’s status, this isn’t a very easy game to predict, but Johnson’s health just makes things more complicated. The case for Cleveland is that, even if Johnson plays, he’ll have to face Joe Haden. Haden wouldn’t be able to cover Johnson if Johnson were healthy, but he’s not so even if he plays, he’ll have a shot. Haden has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season (he’s always been good, but this has been his best year). Shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, he’s allowed 18 catches for 169 yards on 38 attempts this season.

He was a big part of the reason why the Browns, in a similar situation as home dogs, beat the Bengals, who similarly have one dominant receiver and little else. Offensively, Brian Hoyer is out for the season for the Browns, but Brandon Weeden looked good in relief of him last week. Remember, he didn’t have Josh Gordon at his disposal when he started the year as the starter. Gordon has been dominant in his 3 games since returning from suspension, catching 18 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. With him and Jordan Cameron, Weeden has weapons to work with.

The case for Detroit, however, is that Detroit is a legitimate playoff team who should be able to bounce back off of a road loss in a tough environment and beat an inferior opponent. Teams tend to cover at a higher rate in their 2nd road game than their first because it gives them an opportunity to get used to being away from home. It’s also very possible that, even at less than 100%, Haden can’t cover Johnson. He’s that good. And as for Weeden, well maybe he’s still just Brandon Weeden and his strong half in relief of Hoyer last week was a fluke against a banged up Buffalo defense. One trend also supports the Lions, as home dogs are 52-74 ATS before being double digit dogs on the road. The Browns travel to Green Bay next week and might not be as focused as they need to be in order to pull an upset as a result. I’m definitely not confident either way, but I like the Lions right now.

Detroit Lions 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+2)

Record: 3-2

Poor Browns. I really feel bad for them. They had a good quarterback for 3 games. But the dream is over. It’s time to wake up. Brandon Weeden is your quarterback again. Brian Hoyer won’t be back until 2014 at the earlier. They’d be a lot higher on here if it wasn’t for the Hoyer injury, but I don’t see any way that Weeden, as good as he looked in a half against a banged up Buffalo secondary, gets this team into the playoffs, even with a solid supporting cast.

Week 5 Studs

QB Brandon Weeden

RE Desmond Bryant

Week 5 Duds

RG Shawn Lauvao

TE Gary Barnidge

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+5)

Record: 2-2

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years. This has allowed their defense to shine.

Week 5 Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz

Week 5 Duds

LG John Greco

ROLB Barkevious Mingo

MLB Craig Robertson

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years.

This has allowed their defense to shine. They don’t have a perfect defense by any means and they have holes in their secondary, but they have one of the better front 7s in the NFL with guys like Desmond Bryant, Phil Taylor, John Hughes, Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Paul Kruger. Meanwhile, Joe Haden has done an excellent job in the secondary, allowing 15 completions on 32 attempts for 130 yards while shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, including guys like Mike Wallace and AJ Green. They have allowed opponents to convert 70% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs.

The Bills, meanwhile, are also playing excellent defense, allowing opponents to convert 69% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. Mike Pettine has done an excellent job in his first year as defensive coordinator and their front 7 is playing very well, with guys like Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and early Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kiko Alonso. Their secondary has problems, mostly thanks to injuries, but they have, at least, a comparable defense to Cleveland.

This should be a defensive matchup, especially on a short week. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and stronger defenses than offenses. The under usually covers on Thursday Night (76-59 since 1989). I’m not going to put anything on that because I hate betting over/under, especially after last week, a defensive matchup that somehow went over the total because of return touchdowns and garbage time scores. However, this should be a low scoring game.

The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup. It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week, so home dogs don’t cover nearly as often as home favorites, but these two teams are very evenly matched so that’s not a factor.

The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other, especially in their first season with new coaching staffs. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Cleveland’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. They still have an advantage and non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night. I’d be much more confident with Cleveland at -3 than at -4, but the Browns should still be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)

The Browns won last week in Minnesota, but they will find live a lot tougher this week against the Bengals. For one, they probably won’t be as successful if they try trick play again, like they did last week, when their punter threw an 11-yard touchdown and a special teamer had a 34 yard run. Take away that 34 yard run and a 22 yard run by Josh Gordon, they had just 47 rushing yards on 15 carries in their first week without Trent Richardson and that was against the Vikings. The Bengals run defense is much tougher and will make life very hard for the trio of Willis McGahee, Bobby Rainer, and Chris Ogbonnaya.

That’s going to make live tougher for Brian Hoyer, who was going to find live harder anyway against a Cincinnati pass defense that is much better than Minnesota’s. Hoyer had a solid week last week, but he also completed just 55.6% of his passes, averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and threw 3 interceptions so he’s hardly the Browns’ savior. Throughout his career, he’s completed just 58.0% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He’ll be overmatched against the Bengals, even with Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson expected out for the Bengals. Their front 7, particularly their defensive line, will help mask their absence.

The Bengals generally play well against bad teams in the Andy Dalton era, as they had an 18-4 record in 2011 and 2012 combined against non-playoff teams. They’re even better this year, coming off a statement win over the Packers, a likely playoff team. They were 1-11 against such teams in 2011 and 2012, but they beat the Packers despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams win just 17.9% of the time when losing the turnover battle by 2 historically.

I still think Andy Dalton is a limiting factor on this team, but his previous 1-11 record in 2011 and 2012 against eventual playoff teams doesn’t seem relevant at this point. His supporting cast is definitely good enough to mask his flaws, especially their defense. His supporting cast will make life easy for him this week against a weaker opponent. The Bengals should be able to establish their game plan easily against the Browns, as they usually do against weak opponents. This would be a higher confidence pick if the line were below the key numbers of 3 and 4, but I still feel pretty confident the Bengals get a big win here.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

Poor Browns. They can’t even tank right. Brian Hoyer became the first quarterback to throw for 3 touchdowns in a game for the Browns since Brady Quinn in 2009, while punter Shane Lanning also threw a touchdown, giving him as many as Brandon Weeden has this season. The presence of Josh Gordon clearly helped and it’ll be very interesting to see if they’re really trying to shop him like reports have said. Teams like the Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens should send the Browns a 3rd rounder for him in a heartbeat.

Week 3 Studs

LG John Greco

RG Oniel Cousins

RE John Hughes

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

SS TJ Ward

Week 3 Duds

MLB Craig Robertson

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30

The Browns’ offensive line was supposed to be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but the right side has gotten completely blown up through the first 2 games. Right guard Oneil Cousins has been as bad as a player can possibly be in 2 starts as an injury fill in, while right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, coming off a very strong rookie year, has already given up as many sacks in 2 games as he did all last season. The good news is that Shawn Lauvao is expected to return from injury this week. Lauvao isn’t very good and would have been the weak link on this line regardless, but he’ll be miles better than Cousins. Hopefully his return can spur a turnaround for Schwartz. The Browns also add Josh Gordon back from suspension, who gives them a much needed weapon on the outside if he can come back and play at the level he’s capable of. Both of those returns are just in time for a winnable game at 0-2 Minnesota.

Week 2 Studs

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

Week 2 Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz

RG Oniel Cousins

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